A Trident-II D5 SLBM launch in the Atlantic on 21 September 2025: analysis of footage from Puerto Rico (UPDATED)

frame stack of movie by SAC station Anasco, Puerto Rico

 

click map to enlarge

On 15 September 2025, Navigational Warnings appeared that pointed to an upcoming Trident-II D5 SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) unarmed test launch in the Atlantic between 17 and 22 September 2025, from a submarine of either the US Navy or UK Royal Navy positioned some 400 km out of the coast of Florida (update 24 Sept 2025: according to this US DoD bulletin it was an American test launch from an unnamed Ohio-class SSBN (Ballistic Missile submarine). The submarine test-launched four Trident missiles between Sept 17 and 21). I have posted about such tests and the typical pattern of Navigational Warnings associated to them earlier, in an analysis of a Trident launch that was inadvertently captured on camera in a time-lapse by an amateur astronomer on La Palma in September of 2013.

And now we have another case of inadvertant capture on camera of such a launch, and a second opportunity for analysis! 

In the evening of 21 September 2025 near 23:30 UTC, eyewitnesses in Puerto Rico saw a fuzzy object and what looked like expanding missile exhaust clouds move through the sky, consistent with a rocket or missile launch. The event was captured by amongst others a meteor camera of the Caribbean Astronomy Society (SAC) near Anasco, Puerto Rico. 

Eddie Irizarry of SAC was so kind to send me the video footage for identification and analysis. Immediately, it was clear to me that the video showed the Trident test launch we expected.

In top of this post is a frame-stack from the footage. Below it is a map I prepared showing the northern part of the sky as seen from the camera station in Puerto Rico, with the blue line representing the sky trajectory expected for this Trident launch for an assumed (but see below) apogee altitude of 2200 km. They compare well (note: the video stack shows a part of the trajectory only, up to about azimuth 30 degrees, while the sky map shows the full trajectory).

Here is the video footage itself (courtesy of  Eddie Irizarry, used with permission):

 

 

The trajectory for this Trident test launch is known, as it can be reconstructed from the Navigational Warnings that have been issued for it. Below is the Navigational Warning, and a map where I have plotted the exclusion zones A-D from it, and a fitted ballistic trajectory:

151958Z SEP 25
HYDROLANT 1538/25(GEN).
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
DNC 01, DNC 16.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 171830Z TO 220136Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-34.00N 076-29.00W, 29-07.00N 076-28.00W,
      29-05.00N 075-33.00W, 28-30.00N 075-35.00W.
   B. 28-37.00N 075-51.00W, 28-55.00N 075-44.00W,
      27-44.00N 070-28.00W, 27-05.00N 070-28.00W.
   C. 16-28.00N 044-01.00W, 17-01.00N 043-43.00W,
      14-36.00N 038-46.00W, 13-37.00N 039-33.00W.
   D. 10-35.00S 001-40.00W, 10-05.00S 001-25.00W,
      12-01.00S 002-21.00E, 12-45.00S 002-55.00E,
      13-11.00S 002-20.00E, 13-01.00S 002-02.00E,
      13-04.00S 002-00.00E, 12-38.00S 001-15.00E.
   E. 26-58.00N 070-28.00W, 28-14.00N 070-28.00W,
      25-56.00N 063-20.00W, 24-34.00N 063-50.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220236Z SEP 25.

click map to enlarge

 

On the map, I have undicated the part of the trajectory that was captured by the SAC camera on Puerto Rico as a yellow line. 

Area A is the launch area where the submarine is located. Areas B, E and C are respectively the splashdown zones of the first, second and third stages of the missile. Area D is the RV (Reentry Vehicle) target zone. The switched designations for the C and E area are probably a clerical error.

The launch area, 400 km out of the Florida coast is one of two well established launch locations for Trident tests in the Atlantic (see my earlier investigation here). Likewise, the target area in the southeastern part of the Atlantic, 900 km east of St Helena at a range of about 9500 km from the launch site, is a well known target location for these test launches.

What cannot be well gleaned from Navigational Warnings alone, is the apogee altitude of this test. 

In this post, I will however reconstruct it from a combination of the known missile flight trajectory and measurements of the missile's sky track in the video footage from Puerto Rico, in a similar way as I analysed the earlier 2013 Trident observation from La Palma. For that 2013 test, I found an apogee at ~1800 km.

The video (the original is higher resolution than the version posted in this blogpost) provides plenty of reference stars to do astrometry on the missile path through the sky. So I measured the missile's position with respect to the stars for several frames from the video. Plotting  these observed positions (in RA/DEC) on a star map along with the expected sky trajectories in RA/DEC for various assumed apogee altitudes (based on the trajectory from the Navigational Warnings), it is clear that an apogee of 2200 km fits best. Red crosses in the plot below are the measured positions from the video: the blue lines provide the expected missile tracks for various apogee altitudes:

click map to enlarge

(note that I choose to plot RA on the Y-axis rather than X-axis, in order to get a plot orientation that is most easily compared to the video footage).

Earlier, while similarly analyzing the Trident launch seen from La Palma in 2013, I found an indicated apogee of ~1800 km, some 400 km lower than seems to be the case with this latest test launch. Both values are significantly higher than the ~1200 km that is often taken as a canonical value for an intercontinental missile apogee. These tests in the Atlantic therefore appear to be a bit "lofted", perhaps simply to keep the Reentry Vehicle (RV) impact area sufficiently out of the African coast.

From the timing of the Puerto Rico video, the actual launch time was likely somewhere near 23:27 UTC (Sept 21) from a location  near 28.8 N, 76.3 W, with a flight time near 41 minutes from launch to RV impact. As seen from Puerto Rico the missile cleared the horizon while at ~150 km altitude, steadily climbing to  ~800 km when it left the field of view of the CAS camera station (while continuing its ascend towards apogee). The closest slant range to the camera station was ~1300 km. The big cloud of exhaust gas seen in the early part of the video likely stops upon ejection of the second or third stage. The various smaller "pufs" of exhaust cloud that can be seen later emanating from the fuzzy object, are probably due to either the third stage or post-boost vehicle orienting itself.

(With thanks to Eddie Irizarry/CAS for sending me the footage and for his permission to use it in this blog) 

UPDATE 24 Sept 2025: 

According to this US DoD bulletin the missile was launched from an unnamed US Ohio-class Ballistic Missile submarine (SSBN). The submarine reportedly test-launched as much as four Trident missiles of the 5DLE variety between Sept 17 and 21. The below image was published, showing a Sept 21 nighttime launch, the missile that was seen from Puerto Rico:

 

Sept 21 2025 Trident missile launch. Photo US Navy/Shelby Thompson

A Chinese ICBM test launch at full range, into the central Pacific, on September 25

click image to enlarge

click image to enlarge

In a surprise move, China conducted a (for them) unusual ICBM test launch on September 25, 2024. They launched an ICBM at full range, targetting an RV splash-down area in the central Pacific.

According to China the missile, with a "dummy warhead", was launched at 00:44 UTC (Sept 25) "to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean". Several countries (including the US, Japan) were reportedly informed before the test, and Navigational Warnings were issued for the RV impact area and missile stage splashdown areas two days before the test.

The Navigational Warnings and NOTAM's indicate that the missile was launched from the northern part of Hainan Island, with RV splashdown near 10.4 S, 146.5 W near French Polynesia, some 700 km west of Nuku Hiva and 875 km northeast of Bora Bora. The indicated range flown by the ICBM was about 11 700 km.

I have plotted the relevant hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings (HYDROPAC 3118/24, HYDROPAC 3121/24) and a NOTAM (A3054/24) with a matching reconstructed ballistic flight path on the map below, while the two illustrations in top of this post show the approximate trajectory in 3D (assuming apogee at 1200 km and launch on the Hainan coast).

click map to enlarge

Given the launch from Hainan, it was likely a road-mobile ICBM (perhaps a DF-31 or DF-41 [UPDATE: it was a road-mobile DF-31A or AG, see update at bottom of post]) launched from a TEL. The exact launch location is still unclear at the moment. The location of the hazard areas (especially that from NOTAM A3054/24) seem to rule out launch from the Wenchang Space Launch Complex, as they rather point to slightly more north on Hainan.

China usually test launches its ICBM's over land, on lofted trajectories (e.g. see this 2019 blog post). The last time they launched one at full range on a non-lofted trajectory into the Pacific was 44 years ago, in 1980. So this launch is far from a standard test.

In addition to being an ICBM non-lofted test, the test could perhaps also have been for the purpose of testing China's TJS/Huoyan early warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit.

Relevant Navigational Warnings and NOTAM:

231141Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3118/24(91,93).
PHILIPPINE SEA.
PHILIPPINES.
DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 19-46.00N 118-15.00E, 19-36.00N 119-48.00E,
      18-33.00N 119-41.00E, 18-44.00N 118-08.00E.
   B. 19-06.00N 124-41.00E, 18-57.00N 125-42.00E,
      18-11.00N 125-36.00E, 18-21.00N 124-34.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


231521Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3121/24(83).
SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-37.00S 147-14.00W, 10-18.00S 145-31.00W,
   11-08.00S 145-44.00W, 10-27.00S 147-29.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


A3054/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZGZU/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/1952N11145E018
A) ZGZU B) 2409250020 C) 2409250230
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N200247E1113156-N200222E1120118-N194011E1120042-N194142E1113027,BAC
K TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

 

There are three more NOTAM's that correspond to the areas from the Navigational Warnings. (HT to Cosmic Penguin on Twitter for the NOTAM).

 

UPDATE 26 Sep 2024:

China has published images of the launch. It shows a launch from a TEL, with a missile and TEL consistent with a DF-31A or AG.

Image: PLA

Russian ICBM test launch (Topol?) from Kapustin Yar seen from the Middle East

click to enlarge

On 12 April 2024 near 16:00 UTC, the Russian Armed Forces test-fired an unarmed ICBM from Kapustin Yar, targetting the test range at Sary Shagan at a distance of some 2000 km. The missile was likely a TOPOL-M.

In the image above, I have modelled the likely trajectory, assuming apogee at 1000 km altitude as in previous tests. Below is Russian MoD footage of the launch:

 

The missile launch was widely seen as a bright comet-like object in the sky, in Russia as well as in the Middle East, with reports from as far south as a.o. Iran and Iraq. As many there where in anxiety about an expected Iranian retaliation attack on Israel, it created  a bit of a stir.

 

In the aftermath, there were some people that expressed doubt whether a Russian ICBM test would be visible from the Middle East. So I reconstructed the area of visibility to show that it is in fact visible. 

In the map below, I have drawn isocircles around the estimated point of cut-off of the missile's third stage. That stage cut-off happened after 3 minutes of flight at an altitude of about 570 km (there is some leeway in both figures possible, but in general the figure below will give you a good indication of the area of visibility).

click map to enlarge

 

The isocircles give you the altitude in the local sky as seen from a region encompassing southern Russia and the Middle East. 

As can be seen, the area of visibility is large, and horizontally extends about 2600 km from the geographic location of stage engine cut-off, to as far as southern Iran. 

Bar the first few tens of kilometers, the trajectory was fully sun-illuminated, and as a result the exhaust clouds of the missile were also sun-illuminated, making them  shine brightly in the sky.

That exhaust clouds from the upper stages of missile launches can be seen over a avery large area isn't something new. Russian ICBM tests from Plesetsk have multiple times resulted in sightings of bright "spirals" in the Arctic sky (e.g. here). Chinese tests have also been observed, e.g. this example that was observed from South Korea in 2019, which I further analysed here. Meanwhile, the post-boost vehicles of ICBM's/SLBM's sometimes also cause visible phenomena in the sky: see my analysis of one such sighting from La Palma in 2013 related to a US Trident SLBM test for example.

A possible French Missile test over the Gulf of Biscaye on April 10-11 [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

An odd Navigational Warning has appeared, for "space debris" along a 420-km trackline over the Gulf of Biscaye, from a point some 37 km southwest of Concarneau on the southern coast of Bretagne to a point some 20 km west of the French missile test base DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse, southwest France. The Navigational Warning is for April 10 and 11, 2024, from 10:00 to 14:30 UTC (12:00 to 16:30 CEST).

I do not think this Navigational Warning is really about "space debris", but rather believe some sort of missile test is concerned. 

The southern end of the 420 km trackline being close to the French missile testing base at Biscarosse, while the northern end is in the area that the French Navy uses to test-launch SLBM's, is a giveaway that it rather concerns some kind of missile. Also, a controlled reentry of "space debris" so close to the French coast would be very odd. So I do not believe for a second that the Warning truely is for "space debris"

This is the text of the Navigational Warning:

051439Z APR 24
HYDROLANT 716/24(37).
BAY OF BISCAY.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   101000Z TO 101430Z, ALTERNATE 111000Z TO 111430Z
   ALONG TRACKLINE JOINING
   47-36.00N 004-13.00W, 44-20.00N 001-30.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 111530Z APR 24.

Because the trackline starts in the area that the French use for SLBM test launches, and because "space debris" would perhaps indicate something with a high apogee, my initial thought (see also the title of the map above) was that it might concern a test of a new SLBM stage (it is definitely not a full M51 SLBM test, the range is much too short for that and those tests fire westwards).

However, the 420 km length of the indicated track line, would also match two medium-range to long-range cruise-missiles of the French armed forces: the ASMP-A, which is airlaunched and meant to deliver a nuclear warhead; and the French-British SCALP-EG, also known as Storm Shadow, which is also air-launched and has a conventional warhead.

If it concerns a ship- or submarine-launched cruise-missile instead, then the MdCN would also be an option, but that missile would have a 2-3 times as large range (edit: but see below).

Calling a cruise-missile "space debris" is a stretch however. So many open questions remain as to the character of the missile in question.

 

UPDATE 19 Apr 2024:

The test happened on April 18 (the Navigational Warning was re-issued twice, for April 17 and 18). The French Ministry of Defense announced that it concerned a double launch of the Missile de Croisière Naval (MdCN) Naval cruise missile, one launched from the Frigate Aquitaine, the other from a nuclear  submarine in the Suffren class. The target was on land at DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse.

January UK Trident-II D5 SLBM test failed

It probably generated a lot of Stiff Upper Lip and an "Ow well, that is regrettable Old Boy...." from the UK Defense Secretary and the UK Royal Navy Commander that were on scene to witness the test.

For British media (e.g. The Sun here and the BBC here) report that the 30 January Trident-II D5 SLBM test launch from the British Royal Navy submarine HMS Vanguard, on which I wrote earlier here, failed.

From the description of the failure by The Sun, the suggestion is that the first stage failed to ignite after ejection of the missile from the submarine. As a result, it fell back into sea close to the submarine.

A previous British Royal Navy Trident test launch, in 2016, failed as well when the missile veered into the wrong direction after launch and had to be destroyed in flight.

In general, the Trident-II D5 is a reliable missile. The US Navy test-fires Trident SLBM's frequently, and most of their tests reportedly were successful. It just seems the British have bad luck lately.

UPDATE:  Statement by the UK Ministry of Defense to UK Parliament on the matter.

An upcoming British Royal Navy Trident SLBM test in the Atlantic [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

Over the past month, there was much anticipation for a (almost certainly) British Royal Navy Trident-II D5 SLBM test in the Atlantic. The arrival of the British nuclear ballistic missile armed submarine HMS Vanguard and several support ships at Port Canaveral in the past weeks suggested as much. Port Canaveral is the home base for such Trident SLBM tests.

And now the corresponding Navigational Warnings have appeared, for the period January 30 - Feb 4.

290215Z JAN 24
NAVAREA IV 89/24(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 302100 TO 040356 FEB
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 29-00.00N 079-56.00W, 29-05.00N 079-35.00W,
      29-00.00N 079-07.00W, 28-38.00N 079-06.00W,
      28-36.00N 079-33.00W, 28-42.00N 079-52.00W.
   B. 28-28.00N 076-03.00W, 28-19.00N 075-04.00W,
      28-06.00N 075-07.00W, 28-16.00N 076-01.00W.
   C. 27-03.00N 069-40.00W, 27-20.00N 069-37.00W,
      26-58.00N 068-02.00W, 26-43.00N 068-05.00W.
   D. 19-42.00N 050-06.00W, 20-19.00N 049-55.00W,
      19-02.00N 046-24.00W, 18-23.00N 046-46.00W.
   E. 08-32.00N 031-06.00W, 08-39.00N 031-01.00W,
      08-03.00N 028-55.00W, 06-43.00N 027-40.00W,
      05-49.00N 028-16.00W, 05-59.00N 028-34.00W,
      05-25.00N 028-53.00W, 06-25.00N 029-17.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 88/24
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 040456Z FEB 24.

I have depicted the five hazard zones from this Navigational Warning (also issued as HYDROLANT 214/24, and a re-issue of an earlier warning that had a typo in the coordinates of Area A) in the map in top of this post. Area A is the launch area. Areas B, C and D are the splash-down zones of the first, second and third stages. Area E is the RV target area.

The launch is from one of two standard test firing areas, some 80-90 km in front of the coast of Florida (see also this earlier post). The launch will be visible from Florida, so from previous experience I expect it to generate a number of 'UFO' reports from eyewitnesses who don't know what they are seeing.

The first thing of note is that the range of this test, at approximately 5900 km, is rather short compared to other Trident tests.

That can be seen in the map below, which depicts the RV target area of this test along with the target areas of earlier Trident-II D5 tests fired from the same test launch area 1.

click map to enlarge

Whereas the other RV target areas are at latitudes 9 S to 18 S, the target area for this test is much more north, near latitude 7 N, i.e. a range some 3000-5000 km short of earlier tests. It is effectively about half the range of a typical Trident test.

HMS Vanguard (S28) has recently come out of a long 7.5 years maintenance overhaul and refuel period, and this test likely is part of its recertification as an operational SLBM submarine. The Royal British Navy has four Vanguard-class submarines in active service. Each of them carries 16 Trident-II D5 missiles.

In June 2016, the previous Royal British Navy Trident missile test, a Trident test-fired from HMS Vengeance, went awry when the missile veered into the wrong direction (towards Florida) after launch: according to newspaper The Guardian because if was given wrong trajectory information. It had to be destroyed in flight. That test targetted a target area just east-southeast of Ascension Island. I guess some nervous officials will watch the upcoming launch carefully with their finger on the destruct button.

UPDATE 21 Feb 2024:

The missile test failed, according to UK Media (.e.g. BBC here and The Sun here). It appears that the first stage did not ignite after missile ejection from the submarine. As a result, the missile plunged back into sea close to the submarine. The test was reportedly witnessed by the UK Defense Secretary Shapps and the Commander of the Royal Navy, so I guess there was a lot of Stiff Upper Lip that day, with some "Ow well, that's unfortunate Old Boy...".
A previous UK Royal Navy test launch, in 2016, failed as well (see discussion above in blogpost).

An upcoming French SLBM test in the Atlantic, ARRW, and a failed Minuteman test in the Pacific

click map to enlarge

 

click image to enlarge

While strong Autumn storms and rainshowers (the image above is an APT image my radio received from NOAA 19 this morning, showing storm Ciarán over the Channel) are making satellite observations impossible, various missile test activities the past and upcoming weeks keep me occupied.

In a previous post I wrote about a Missile Defense test, FTM-48 north of Hawaii on October 25, and indications for another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral (it is unknown whether the latter test happened: FTM-48 reportedly was a success).

In this post, I will write about three other missile tests. 

 

French M51 SLBM test

First, an upcoming French M51 SLBM test to be launched from DGA Essais de missiles near Biscarrosse on the southwest coast of France. Its trajectory is over the Gulf of Biscaye and northern Atlantic towards a target area some 830 km south of Saint-Pierre et Miquelon (two French islands in front of the Newfoundland coast). 

Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROLANT 2484/23 and NAVAREA IV 1273/23 ) have appeared that indicate the test, with a window running from November 6 to December 1. Below is a map with the hazard zones for this test and the text of the Navigational Warnings:

click map to enlarge

311957Z OCT 23
HYDROLANT 2484/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z
   DAILY 06 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 44-26.33N 001-15.67W, 44-28.00N 001-20.00W,
      44-35.00N 001-27.75W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W,
      44-23.50N 002-25.00W, 44-14.75N 001-35.75W,
      44-17.25N 001-26.75W, 44-18.00N 001-17.00W.
   B. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 45-22.57N 006-11.45W,
      45-05.33N 006-16.65W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W.
   C. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W,
      44-23.50N 002-24.98W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W.
   D. 47-08.05N 014-18.15W, 47-20.18N 017-10.22W,
      45-33.87N 017-23.13W, 45-22.12N 014-36.47W.
   E. 47-05.02N 029-54.25W, 46-58.67N 031-53.87W,
      46-11.73N 031-47.78W, 46-17.98N 029-49.87W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.


020945Z NOV 23
NAVAREA IV 1273/23(14).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z DAILY
   06 NOV THRU 01 DEC IN AREA WITHIN
   80 MILES OF 39-21.36N 057-43.60W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.//

The indicated range for this test is about 5100 km, which is somewhat less than the test on 28 April 2021, as can be seen in this map comparing the two tests:

click map to enlarge

The test involves a manoeuvre changing the heading of the missile somewhere after jettison of the third stage. The shorter range, and closer range to the splashdown zones of the stages, could indicate either a more loftet test or (more likely) a heavier payload.

UPDATE:

The Navigational Warnings have been re-issued for Nov 16 - Dec 1 and adding an additional time window (18:00-23:59 UTC):

161904Z NOV 23
HYDROLANT 2631/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1200Z AND
   1800Z TO 2359Z DAILY 16 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 44-18.00N 001-17.00W, 44-17.25N 001-26.75W,
   44-14.75N 001-35.75W, 44-23.50N 002-25.00W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-35.00N 001-27.75W,
   44-28.00N 001-20.00W, 44-26.33N 001-15.67W.
B. 45-22.57N 006-11.45W, 45-05.33N 006-16.65W,
   44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W.
C. 44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-23.50N 002-24.98W.
D. 47-20.18N 017-10.22W, 45-33.87N 017-23.13W,
   45-22.12N 014-36.47W, 47-08.05N 014-18.15W.
E. 46-58.67N 031-53.87W, 46-11.73N 031-47.78W,
   46-17.98N 029-49.87W, 47-05.02N 029-54.25W.
2. CANCEL HYDROLANT 2628/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 020100Z DEC 23.

UPDATE 18 Nov 2023:

The SLBM test happened this evening, 18 Nov 2023, around 18:20 UTC. Several spectacular images and video footage of illuminated exhaust cloluds were obtained from France, Spain and Italy.

US AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic test

On the other side of the World, in the Northwest Pacific between California and Hawaii, another AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic missile test appears to be on the calendar for November 4th, with an alternative window between Nov 7 and 13, as indicated by this Navigational Warning:

300930Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 760/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 041200Z TO 042030Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 1300Z TO 2130Z DAILY 07 AND 13 NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 31-55.63N 127-43.18W, 33-12.37N 122-41.36W,
      33-06.52N 119-53.89W, 32-55.31N 119-51.90W,
      32-03.13N 122-28.33W, 31-40.94N 127-39.48W.
   B. 28-34.12N 135-59.93W, 30-09.63N 136-34.60W,
      30-52.95N 133-51.97W, 29-16.77N 133-19.65W.
   C. 26-17.92N 141-50.77W, 27-26.72N 142-21.67W,
      28-20.65N 139-47.33W, 27-11.27N 139-17.77W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 132230Z NOV 23.//

click map to enlarge

 The areas are similar to earlier known or suspected ARRW tests:

click map to enlarge

This missile must be one of the last of the (scrapped) AGM-183 program left.

Failed Minuteman-III ICBM test

Meanwhile, November 1 saw what should have been a rather routine Minuteman-III ICBM test from Vandenberg to Illegini Island, Kwajalein, going awry.

According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, an anomaly occurred and the missile was terminated in flight. A nice photograph of the launch is here.

Below is the map with the trajectory the missile should have flown, and the relevant Navigational Warnings:

click map to enlarge

260936Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 749/23(18,19,81).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 01 AND 02 NOV:
   A. 0631Z TO 1335Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 121-25.00W, 34-40.00N 120-54.00W,
      34-46.00N 120-37.00W, 34-57.00N 120-37.00W,
      34-58.00N 120-58.00W, 34-58.00N 121-24.00W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1340Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-19.00N 124-36.00W, 34-40.00N 124-39.00W,
      34-56.00N 121-59.00W, 34-36.00N 121-56.00W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1347Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-30.00N 137-13.00W, 32-48.00N 137-18.00W,
      33-04.00N 136-01.00W, 32-45.00N 135-56.00W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      14-36.00N 175-34.00E, 14-54.00N 175-13.00E,
      14-35.00N 174-55.00E, 14-23.00N 174-49.00E,
      14-17.00N 174-54.00E, 14-17.00N 175-15.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021531Z NOV 23.//


270329Z OCT 23
HYDROPAC 3397/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 010700Z TO 011411Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 020700Z TO 021411Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   A. 09-53.00N 168-50.00E, 09-55.00N 168-47.00E,
      09-32.00N 168-09.00E, 09-24.00N 167-35.00E,
      09-09.00N 167-08.00E, 08-45.00N 167-23.00E,
      09-01.00N 167-49.00E, 08-51.00N 168-22.00E,
      08-54.00N 168-32.00E, 09-18.00N 169-10.00E,
      09-20.00N 169-11.00E.
   B. 11-08.00N 172-02.00E, 12-18.00N 171-37.00E
      13-20.00N 170-42.00E, 13-28.00N 170-33.00E
      13-20.00N 170-07.00E, 13-14.00N 170-00.00E,
      13-07.00N 169-54.00E, 12-01.00N 170-24.00E,
      11-54.00N 170-31.00E, 10-59.00N 171-14.00E,
      10-52.00N 171-22.00E, 10-57.00N 171-47.00E,
      10-59.00N 171-54.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021511Z NOV 23.//

[UPDATED] A possible Missile Defense Test from Hawaii on October 25-29 (FTM-32?) and another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral

 

click map to enlarge

 [this post was updated 25 Oct 2023 to include an upcoming LRHW test from Cape Canaveral]

 

A Navigational Warning (NAVAREA XII 735/23) has appeared  that suggests a Missile Defense test will take place north of Hawaii with a target launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kauai, Hawaii, in the last week of October. The window runs from October 25 to 29.

200855Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 735/23(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 251930Z TO 260100Z OCT,
   ALTERNATE 261930Z TO 270100Z,
   271930Z TO 280100Z, 281930Z TO 290100Z OCT
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-02.00N 159-47.00W, 22-04.00N 159-52.00W,
   23-52.00N 161-49.00W, 22-37.00N 163-18.00W,
   23-00.00N 164-29.00W, 24-54.00N 164-53.00W,
   27-30.00N 167-44.00W, 29-23.00N 167-44.00W,
   35-17.00N 161-05.00W, 35-46.00N 156-36.00W,
   30-43.00N 152-22.00W, 28-18.00N 152-15.00W,
   27-35.00N 152-48.00W, 26-04.00N 155-40.00W,
   24-19.00N 160-57.00W, 22-09.00N 159-45.00W,
   22-03.00N 159-46.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 290200Z OCT 23.//

In the map above I have plotted the hazard area from the Navigational Warning. The target launch track from PMRF on Kauai can be seen, as well as a large intercept area.

Although not the same, it is riminiscent for that of test FTM-31 E1a of 30 March this year (see a March blogpost) which was a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles from the US Navy ship USS Daniel Inouyeto that intercepted a MRBM target fired from PMRF Kauai.

The upcoming test might be FTM-32  (see page 5 of this Congressional document) which reportedly also will be a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles against an MRBM target [edit: it was actually FTM-48]. The missiles will be fired from a US Navy Guided Missile Cruiser positioned north of Kauai, perhaps USS Carl M. Levin or USS Kidd, who both were seen sailing out of Pearl Harbor recently.

UPDATE 26 Oct 2023:

The test happened on 25 October and involved the interception of multiple targets. The interception was done by the USS Carl M. Levine (DDG120). Two HALO observing aircraft (HALO2 and HALO51) where in the air during the test, along with a US Navy P3, a USAF aircraft and fifth small aircraft. MDA news item on it here and a Naval News story here. It was test FTM-48 codenamed Vigilant Wyvern. The targets consisted of two SRBM's and two cruise missiles, the first intercepted with two SM-3 missiles, the second with two SM-2 missiles.

The MDA released this image of the test, showing one of two SRBM targets being fired from the PMRF Kauai (and the smoke trail of another one):

image: Missile Defence Agency

 They also published this video:

 [end of update]

 

LRHW Test from Cape Canaveral

Meanwhile, another Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 1235/23, is pointing to yet another test of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral on October 26-28:

 

241619Z OCT 23
NAVAREA IV 1235/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 261500Z TO
   281840Z OCT.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-32.93N 080-33.90W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
   28-18.00N 080-02.00W, 28-23.00N 080-31.00W,
   28-25.64N 080-34.47W.
B. 28-02.00N 078-50.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
   27-55.00N 077-24.00W, 27-40.00N 077-27.00W.
C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-24.00N 079-09.00W,
   28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-02.00N 078-50.00W,
   28-00.00N 079-12.00W, 28-18.00N 080-02.00W.
D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
   27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
   20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
   32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
   11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281940Z OCT 23.

click map to enlarge

Two earlier LRHW test attempts, in March (see this blogpost) and in September (see this blogpost) were aborted. Maybe third time is a charm.

UPDATE: this LHRW test was scrubbed as well.

A new test attempt of the LRHW hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral

click map to enlarge

 

A few days ago, Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA IV 1030/23) were published that point to a new test launch attempt of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral in the period 6 - 8 September 2023.

The Navigational Warning delineates seven hazard zones which, just like for the scrubbed test in March, delineate a signature "forked" trajectory (see map above):

041402Z SEP 23
NAVAREA IV 1030/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 061400Z TO 081841Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-30.57N 080-33.08W, 28-30.00N 080-27.00W,
      28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W,
      28-22.00N 080-21.00W, 28-25.18N 080-34.79W.
   B. 28-04.00N 078-49.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
      27-43.00N 076-32.00W, 27-31.00N 076-31.00W.
   C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-22.00N 079-09.00W,
      28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-04.00N 078-49.00W,
      28-03.00N 079-12.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W.
   D. 23-00.00N 060-00.00W, 20-30.00N 060-00.00W,
      22-00.00N 063-00.00W, 24-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   E. 28-30.00N 060-00.00W, 26-00.00N 060-00.00W,
      25-00.00N 063-00.00W, 27-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   F. 28-00.00N 056-00.00W, 30-00.00N 042-30.00W,
      32-00.00N 042-30.00W, 30-00.00N 056-00.00W.
   G. 19-00.00N 057-00.00W, 11-30.00N 041-00.00W,
      13-30.00N 041-00.00W, 21-00.00N 057-00.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081941Z SEP 23.

Launch is likely from a TEL on Cape Canaveral pad 46.

The hazard areas are very similar to, but not exactly the same  as, those for the scrubbed March test (areas fro that scrubbed test marked in red in the comparison map below):

click map to enlarge

Meanwhile, at the other side of the United States, a routine test launch of an unarmed  Minuteman-III ICBM from Vandenberg in California to the Reagan Test Range on Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands is also planned for 6-7 September 2023 UTC, according to both a Vandenberg Space Force Base news bulletin and Navigational Warnings published:

click image to enlarge

 

The hazard zones in the map above come from these two Navigational Warnings:

292100Z AUG 23
NAVAREA XII 597/23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 06 THRU 07 SEP DAILY:    
   A. 0631Z TO 1337Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-38.00 N 121-23.00 W, 34-38.00 N 120-52.00 W,
      34-44.00 N 120-35.00 W, 34-55.00 N 120-35.00 W,
      34-56.00 N 120-57.00 W, 34-56.00 N 121-22.00 W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-20.00 N 124-33.00 W, 34-35.00 N 124-35.00 W,
      34-52.00 N 122-01.00 W, 34-37.00 N 121-59.00 W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-36.00 N 136-04.00 W, 32-49.00 N 136-08.00 W,
      33-01.00 N 135-05.00 W, 32-48.00 N 135-02.00 W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      13-17.00 N 173-49.00 E, 13-36.00 N 174-20.00 E,
      13-16.00 N 174-33.00 E, 12-57.00 N 174-01.00 E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081531Z SEP 23.


282325Z AUG 23
HYDROPAC 2811/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 060700Z TO 061411Z SEP,
    ALTERNATE 070700Z TO 071411Z SEP
    IN AREAS:
   A. 09-16.00N 167-22.00E, 09-23.00N 167-33.00E,
      09-34.00N 167-26.00E, 09-43.00N 167-33.00E,
      10-09.00N 168-13.00E, 09-31.00N 168-38.00E,
      09-05.00N 167-58.00E, 09-02.00N 167-47.00E,
      08-58.00N 167-33.00E.
   B. 11-51.00N 171-59.00E, 12-37.00N 171-21.00E,
      12-24.00N 170-59.00E, 11-39.00N 171-22.00E,
      10-53.00N 171-58.00E, 11-05.00N 172-20.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 071511Z SEP 23.

 

UPDATE: 

The Minuteman-III test from Vandenberg to Kwajalein has happened, at 6 sept 2023 8:26 UTC, per a Vandenberg SFB news bulletin. According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the test involved three reentry vehicles.

UPDATE II:

The test of the LRHW out of Cape Canaveral was aborted, just like earlier in March

UPDATED: Ceci n'est pas une pipe... (French and US missile tests in the Atlantic in June)

click map to enlarge

They must love Magritte over at the French DoD, looking at the shape of the exclusion zones for a missile test published as Navigational Warnings HYDROLANT 1371/23 and HYDROLANT 1372/23.

The Navigational Warnings point to a French missile test launched from DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, over the Bay of Biscaye, in the period 26 to 30 June 2023. Below is the text of the Navigational Warnings:

201628Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1371/23(36,37).
BAY OF BISCAY.
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08, DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
   26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
   46-33.50N 004-51.90W, 48-27.00N 010-03.00W,
   48-27.00N 015-12.00W, 47-04.50N 014-59.10W,
   46-05.70N 013-39.00W, 44-02.30N 001-20.00W,
   44-49.50N 001-12.30W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.


201646Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1372/23(36).
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
   26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
   50-15.00N 011-08.00W, 49-40.00N 010-11.00W,
   48-27.00N 010-03.00W, 48-27.00N 015-12.00W,
   49-51.00N 013-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.

 

The shape and range of the Navigational Warnings suggest something SRBM/MRBM rather than, for example an SLBM. The curved shape is odd. After I posted the Warnings on Twitter, there has been some speculation that this might be a test of a hypersonic glider, perhaps V-Max. Taking into account the curve in the exclusion area, the range of this test would be in the order of 1250 km.

 

UPDATE 27 June 2023:

The test launch took place yesterday, 26 June 2023 at 22h CEST: see this French DoD bulletin, which also confirms that it was a test of the VMax glider on top of a sounding rocket.

A lot of chance sightings of the lingering missile exhaust cloud, illuminated by the sun, have been posted on Twitter, most of these from northern Spain but also a few from SW France. See for example here, here and here for a few examples. 

The French Ministère des Armées provided this image of  *a* launch. I have some doubts whether it is this particular VMAX launch, as the scenery seems sunlit with the sun in the South-Southeast (look at the shadows), while the launch was near 22 CEST, with the sun setting or just set in the Northwest...

[EDIT: the image seems to be a cgi render, i.e. not a real image, so that explains...]
 

Click to enlarge (image: Ministère des Armées, France)

[end of update]

 

More Atlantic tests: US or UK Trident test

This is not the only test in the Atlantic this June. Slightly earlier, a Navigational Warning, HYDROLANT 1302/23, appeared, strongly suggesting a Trident-II D5 SLBM test in the period 14 to 17 June 2023, launched from a submarine near Florida:

121246Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1302/23(GEN).
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
DNC 01, DNC 16.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 141140Z TO 170029Z JUN
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39.00N 076-31.00W, 29-09.00N 076-13.00W,
      28-47.00N 074-59.00W, 28-17.00N 075-14.00W.
   B. 28-01.00N 073-25.00W, 28-07.00N 073-22.00W,
      27-53.00N 072-04.00W, 27-31.00N 071-57.00W,
      27-33.00N 072-24.00W.
   C. 25-46.00N 067-21.00W, 26-19.00N 067-01.00W,
      25-40.00N 065-42.00W, 25-08.00N 065-59.00W.
   D. 14-00.00N 042-36.00W, 14-14.00N 042-28.00W,
      13-41.00N 041-24.00W, 12-15.00N 039-09.00W,
      11-40.00N 039-30.00W, 12-41.00N 041-09.00W.
   E. 19-32.00S 007-27.00E, 18-42.00S 007-53.00E,
      19-52.00S 010-33.00E, 20-46.00S 010-02.00E,
      20-24.00S 009-17.00E, 20-12.00S 008-49.00E,
      20-06.00S 008-41.00E, 20-03.00S 008-33.00E,
      20-02.00S 008-29.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170129Z JUN 23.


Here is the map I created from this Navigational Warning, with the areas A to E and the approximately 10600 km trajectory:

click map to enlarge

At the moment of writing, we are past the window of the Navigational Warning for this Trident test, but no word has come about a successful test launch yet.

The launch area some 450 km out of the coast of Florida is one of two regularly used launch areas for Trident test launches. It is launch area 2 in the compilation below of data from nine 9 Trident test launches from the last 10 years I could identify:

click map to enlarge

The RV target area in front of the coast of Namibia is near one of three areas regularly used (target area 3 in the map below), but somewhat closer to the African coast than previous tests:

Click map to enlarge

 

 

 

 

A few more maps for tis and histroic Trident tests: first, stage 1 and stage 2 splashdown areas for launches from launch area 1 (top) and launch area 2 (bottom):

Launch area 1 launches. Click map to enlarge

Launch area 2 launche. Click map to enlarge

As I indicated in an earlier analysis, I suspect that launch area 1, much closer to the Florida coast than launch area 2, is used for launches with a VIP audience.

The two maps below show the mid-Atlantic third stage splashdown zones for the two launch areas in question:

An upcoming Russian IRBM missile test on April 20-29

click map to enlarge

Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROARC 50/23 and HYDROARC 51/23) have appeared that suggest an upcoming Russian missile test of some sort in the Russian Arctic between April 20 and 29, 2023. 

The initial window is for 20 April, 11:00 to 15:00 UTC. Secondary windows are for 21 and 22 April 05:00 to 09:00 UTC, and 25 to 29 April 05:00 to 15:00 UTC.

The map above shows the locations of the two hazard zones. Launch is from the Barentsz Sea north of Murmansk: the target area appears to be in the East Siberian Sea near the De Long Islands, northeast of Novaya Sibir. The indicated range is about 3500 km, the orientation of the two hazard areas speaks against a lofted trajectory but rather fits a ~500 km apogee.

Initially I considered an SLBM launch, but the indicated range seems a bit short for that - I would expect an SLBM test launch to target the Kura test range in Kamchatka instead. So for now, let's keep it on an IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) of yet-unidentified type.

The ~3500 km range seems a bit too large for either the Zirkon hypersonic missile or Kalibr cruise missiles. So perhaps, this is something new.

The text below gives the Navigational Warnings in question:

130727Z APR 23
HYDROARC 50/23(41).
EAST SIBERIAN SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 27.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   201100Z TO 201500Z APR, 0500Z TO 0900Z DAILY
   21 AND 22 APR AND 0500Z TO 1500Z DAILY
   25 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
   77-25.62N 155-33.30E, 76-48.75N 150-51.52E,
   74-12.50N 157-26.45E, 73-53.42N 161-19.82E,
   74-58.35N 161-59.62E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291600Z APR 23.


142257Z APR 23
HYDROARC 51/23(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   201100Z TO 201500Z APR, 0500Z TO 0900Z
   DAILY 21 AND 22 APR AND 0500Z TO 1500Z DAILY
   25 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
   74-14.06N 039-11.16E, 73-31.48N 044-22.53E,
   69-17.38N 037-51.36E, 69-26.00N 037-03.00E,
   69-40.30N 037-03.00E, 69-40.30N 035-40.25E,
   70-10.26N 032-40.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291600Z APR 23.