An intriguing apparent Missile Defense (?) test from Kodiak and Kwajalein [UPDATED: hypersonic, not Missile Defense]

 

click map to enlarge

Update 22 Oct 2021: this turns out to have been Navigational Warnings for a test with a Hypersonic glider weapon, not Missile Defense. See update at bottom of the post.

 

A Navigational Warning issued on June 16 seems to point to a possible Missile Defense test on June 21, with missile launches from Kodiak Island in Alaska (the Pacific Space Port Complex) and the Kwajalein Test Range in the Marshall islands.

Below is the text of the Navigational Warning in question, NAVAREA XII 271/21, defining four areas A to D. I have mapped the areas in the map in top of this post, with one of several possible interpretations (in this interpretation, an interceptor is launched from Kwajalein to intercept an ICBM launched from Kodiak. The flight distance involved for the interceptor in this scenario does not sit well with me though).

160922Z JUN 21
NAVAREA XII 271/21(16,19,81).
GULF OF ALASKA. 
NORTH PACIFIC.
ALASKA. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   210830Z TO 211430Z JUN, ALTERNATE 
   0830Z TO 1430Z DAILY 22 THRU 25 JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 57-29N 152-20W, 57-20N 152-11W, 
      56-39N 153-28W, 56-41N 153-33W,
      57-11N 152-47W, 57-16N 152-43W,
      57-19N 152-38W, 57-21N 152-38W,
   B. 51-08N 160-22W, 50-58N 159-50W,
      51-01N 159-26W, 51-17N 158-58W,
      51-42N 158-35W, 52-29N 158-16W,
      52-32N 158-24W, 51-51N 159-35W,
      51-23N 160-14W.
   C. 33-50N 171-41W, 33-44N 171-27W,
      36-52N 169-25W, 38-40N 168-15W,
      39-58N 167-47W, 40-02N 167-59W,
      39-15N 168-39W, 38-27N 169-18W,
      37-05N 170-02W.
   D. 12-45N 172-48E, 08-11N 166-38E, 
      08-56N 166-01E, 13-34N 172-11E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 251530Z JUN 21.

There is an additional Navigational Warning, NAVAREA XII 270/21, defining several areas west of Hawaii for several dates around the possible test, in the general area where the launch trajectories from Kodiak and Kwajalein seem to meet. One of the dates issued (nr 2, highlighted in red) has a time window that, while not similar, does overlap with the time window of warning NAVAREA XII 271/21:

150910Z JUN 21
NAVAREA XII 270/21(19).
NORTH PACIFIC. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 192100Z TO 201000Z JUN 
   IN AREA BOUND BY 
   22-42.0N 172-13.0W, 22-28.2N 171-01.3W, 
   21-08.4N 171-20.8W, 21-22.0N 172-35.0W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 202100Z TO 211000Z JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 30-37.0N 169-02.0W, 30-13.0N 167-20.0W, 
      29-07.0N 167-41.0W, 29-24.0N 169-04.0W.
   B. 24-05.0N 171-50.0W, 23-50.7N 170-36.7W, 
      22-28.2N 171-01.3W, 22-42.1N 172-13.0W.
   C. 23-06.0N 178-55.0W, 23-06.0N 175-15.0W, 
      21-40.0N 175-15.0W, 21-40.0N 178-55.0W.
   D. 22-00.0N 167-58.0W, 22-00.0N 166-36.0W, 
      20-19.0N 166-36.0W, 20-19.0N 167-58.0W.
3. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 212100Z TO 221000Z JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY: 
   A. 29-10.0N 169-54.0W, 28-25.0N 167-54.0W, 
      27-28.0N 168-11.0W, 28-06.0N 170-23.0W.
   B. 23-50.7N 170-36.7W, 23-37.0N 169-28.0W, 
      22-14.8N 169-48.4W, 22-28.2N 171-01.3W.
   C. 23-06.0N 178-55.0W, 23-06.0N 175-15.0W, 
      21-40.0N 175-15.0W, 21-40.0N 178-55.0W.
   D. 22-00.0N 167-58.0W, 22-00.0N 166-36.0W, 
      20-19.0N 166-36.0W, 20-19.0N 167-58.0W.
4. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 222100Z TO 231000Z JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY: 
   A. 28-06.0N 170-12.0W, 27-28.0N 168-11.0W, 
      26-30.0N 168-27.0W, 27-00.0N 170-30.0W.
   B. 22-28.2N 171-01.3W, 22-14.8N 169-48.4W, 
      20-55.0N 170-08.0W, 21-08.4N 171-20.8W.
   C. 20-19.0N 170-20.0W, 20-29.0N 168-01.0W, 
      18-01.0N 168-01.0W, 18-01.0N 170-20.0W.
5. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 232100Z TO 241000Z JUN 
   IN AREA BOUND BY 
   20-19.0N 170-20.0W, 20-29.0N 168-01.0W, 
   18-01.0N 168-01.0W, 18-01.0N 170-20.0W.
6. CANCEL THIS MSG 241100Z JUN 21.

It is not clear whether these Navigational Warnings really are related to the Navigational Warnings from NAVAREA XII 271/21. They might be, or might not be. If they are, this might be one of several possible interpretations, pointing to a multiple target intercept where both a missile fired from Kodiak and a missile fired from Kwajalein are to be intercepted:

click map to enlarge

When I presented the evidence for a possible 21 June Missile Defense test on twitter, there were some suggestions that this might be the planned test FTT-21. 

However, what is known of that planned FTT-21 test suggests the target(s) for that test should be SRBM, i.e. a missile with a range of no more than 1000 km. Which is at odds with what seems to be indicated by the Navigational Warnings, with the missile fired from Kodiak  apparently flying at least 6000 km (assuming areas A to C, blue in the map, define the trajectory of one and the same missile) and the Kwajalein missile at least 1800 km if it is to intercept the Kodiak missile or if it is to be intercepted from area B of the second Navigational Warning (the red area A in the map above). That would be ICBM and IRBM targets, not SRBM targets.

In other words: it is not clear what is going on here, which makes this an interesting issue. 

 

UPDATE 22 Oct 2021: Not Missile Defense, but Hypersonic glider test 

A very similar set of Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA XII 598/21 and HYDROPAC 2936/21) appeared for October 19-29 2021 (see map below), which I initially too interpreted as a possible Missile Defense test, noting it was 100% similar to the June Navigational Warnings discussed earlier in this blogpost.

However, as Joseph Trevithick reports in The Drive, the test (which happened on October 21) was in reality a test with a long distance hypersonic glider weapon: that failed, reportedly because the booster stack launching the hypersonic glider failed.

So a good thing I used a question mark in the title of this post, and included caveats about the interpretations.

The interesting 'dogleg' in the trajectory is in fact representing a change of course of the glider, and there is no missile launched from Kwajalein: that is the target area of the glider instead.

Here is the map with the Navigational Warnings for October, which is as you can see 100% similar to that for June:

click map to enlarge

It is not clear whether the test for which the June Navigational Warnings were issued happened (and if so whether it was successful or not), or was postponed.

SM-3 Block IIA Missile Defense test FTM-44 against an ICBM-class target imminent, 17-19 November 2020 [UPDATED]

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Three days ago, on 12 November 2020, a Navigational Warning appeared that denoted three hazard zones in the northern Pacific for the period 17 to 19 November, connected to what clearly is some kind of missile test:

 

121041Z NOV 20
NAVAREA XII 509/20(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
NORTH PACIFIC.  
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 170400Z TO 171000Z NOV, 
   ALTERNATE 0400Z TO 1000Z DAILY 18 AND 19 NOV 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 09-12N 167-43E, 09-01N 167-40E, 
      08-58N 167-43E, 08-58N 167-48W, 
      09-00N 167-59W, 09-30N 168-18E, 
      09-43N 168-04E. 
   B. 11-22N 170-00E, 11-08N 170-10E, 
      11-44N 173-34E, 13-13N 176-53E, 
      15-39N 178-17E, 18-07N 179-23E, 
      18-48N 177-48E, 17-13N 174-19E,
      16-18N 173-08E, 13-08N 171-00E. 
   C. 44-06N 133-00W, 35-00N 131-00W, 
      28-30N 143-30W, 44-06N 140-30W. 
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 191100Z NOV 20.

 

I have plotted the three area's  in the map below. Note that there appears to be a clerical error in the Navigational Warning for two of the positions defining area A: those reading "W" should probably read "E", which results in a hazard area which makes much more sense (in the map below, the original, probably erroneous, shape for area A is depicted in red: what was likely meant in white).

(note added 17 Nov: an update to this Navigational Warning issued as HYDROPAC 3337/20 confirms the clerical error)

click map to enlarge

The location of the areas lead me to believe it points to a Missile Defense test: an attempt to intercept a dummy Ballistic Missile launched from Kwajalein towards the US main land. Area A denotes the immediate launch hazard zone for the dummy ICBM at Kwajalein; area B where the first second stage of the dummy ICBM will come down; area C the intercept area where the SM-3 interceptor will be fired and the intercept occurs.

Based on the location and shape direction of area C, I initially (and erroneously) thought it might be a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense test from one of the GBMD sites in Alaska. However, after some discussion with the Twitter missile community and some digging around, I am now quite confident that this is not a GMBD test, but an AEGIS SM-3 test, with the SM-3 intercept missile fired from a US Navy Destroyer located in the Pacific in the north of area C. Basically, the situation below:

Click to enlarge

(those of you who remember the infamous Operation Burnt Frost will know the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3): it was used to destroy the malfunctioned USA 193 satellite on 20 February 2008)

Indeed, a Missile Defense test with an SM-3 Block IIA missile, designated as test FTM-44, is known to have been originally scheduled in the Pacific for the third quarter of 2020.  It next was postponed due to the impact of the Corona pandemic, to late 2020. 

The Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 509/20 that appeared three days ago now suggests that the FTM-44 test is imminent, and will take place between 17 and 19 November with the daily window running from 04:00 to 10:00 UT. The locations and shapes of the hazard zones designated in the Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 590/20 fit well with what we know about the FTM-44 test (see below).

A US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 includes the following schematic graphic for FTM-44: compare this to the graphics above and note the clear similarity (note that my figure above is a view from the north,while the MDA figure below is a view from the south):

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Test FTM-44 will be the first attempt at intercepting an ICBM-class  missile rather than a MRBM, extending the system to include ICBM targets. AEGIS previously only included short- and medium range ballistic targets. From the position of area C, the intercept will take place at a range of about 6500 km from the Kwajalein launch site.

As can be seen from the MDA diagram above,  the test includes the use of Space-Based assets (satellites): the Space-Based Infra-Red System (SBIRS) for the initial detection of the launch of the dummy ICBM from GEO and HEO, and the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) for additional tracking of the ICBM missile through midcourse.

Satellites from the STSS system make passes with view of the test area around the following times during the 3-day test window:

Nov 17  ~04:15 UT
Nov 17  ~05:15 UT
Nov 17  ~06:15 UT
Nov 17  ~07:15 UT
Nov 17  ~08:15 UT
Nov 17  ~09:15 UT
Nov 17  ~10:00 UT

Nov 18  ~04:40 UT
Nov 18  ~05:40 UT
Nov 18  ~06:40 UT
Nov 18  ~07:40 UT
Nov 18  ~08:40 UT
Nov 18  ~09:40 UT
Nov 18  ~10:00 UT

Nov 19  ~04:05 UT
Nov 19  ~05:05 UT
Nov 19  ~06:05 UT
Nov 19  ~07:05 UT
Nov 19  ~08:05 UT
Nov 19  ~09:05 UT
Nov 19  ~10:00 UT

The US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 suggests that the FTM-44 SM-3 interceptor will be fired from the USS John Finn. This Arleigh-Burke class Destroyer will probably be located in the northern part of area C from the Navigational Warning.

USS John Finn. Image: US Navy (through Wikimedia)

UPDATE  (17 Nov 11:25 UT):

A news release from the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has confirmed that FTM-44 has taken place this morning, and was successful. It states that the target was launched from the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site at Kwajalein at 7:50 pm Hawaii Standard Time (=17 Nov 5:50 UT). With an approximately 21 minutes flight time, this should place the intercept near 6:11 UT (17 Nov 2020). [edit: but this assumes a typical ICBM speed, zo there is leeway in this time of intercept]

Between the time of launch and intercept, the STSS DEMO 2 satellite (2009-052B) was well positioned to track the target-ICBM mid-course (note: the position of the Destroyer that fired the SM-3 interceptor missile in the image below, has been assumed):

click image to enlarge

SECOND UPDATE:

Footage from the test has been released and can be seen here on the MDA website.

Graphic simulation of the test on the MDA website.

The MDA footage of the target launch and the MDA simulation linked above, confirm that the target ICBM was launched from 9.0065 N, 167.7270 E.

click to enlarge. Image: Google Earth

Acknowledgement: this blog post benefitted from discussions with Simon Petersen, Scott Lafoy and Ankit Panda.