A Chinese ICBM test launch at full range, into the central Pacific, on September 25

click image to enlarge

click image to enlarge

In a surprise move, China conducted a (for them) unusual ICBM test launch on September 25, 2024. They launched an ICBM at full range, targetting an RV splash-down area in the central Pacific.

According to China the missile, with a "dummy warhead", was launched at 00:44 UTC (Sept 25) "to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean". Several countries (including the US, Japan) were reportedly informed before the test, and Navigational Warnings were issued for the RV impact area and missile stage splashdown areas two days before the test.

The Navigational Warnings and NOTAM's indicate that the missile was launched from the northern part of Hainan Island, with RV splashdown near 10.4 S, 146.5 W near French Polynesia, some 700 km west of Nuku Hiva and 875 km northeast of Bora Bora. The indicated range flown by the ICBM was about 11 700 km.

I have plotted the relevant hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings (HYDROPAC 3118/24, HYDROPAC 3121/24) and a NOTAM (A3054/24) with a matching reconstructed ballistic flight path on the map below, while the two illustrations in top of this post show the approximate trajectory in 3D (assuming apogee at 1200 km and launch on the Hainan coast).

click map to enlarge

Given the launch from Hainan, it was likely a road-mobile ICBM (perhaps a DF-31 or DF-41 [UPDATE: it was a road-mobile DF-31A or AG, see update at bottom of post]) launched from a TEL. The exact launch location is still unclear at the moment. The location of the hazard areas (especially that from NOTAM A3054/24) seem to rule out launch from the Wenchang Space Launch Complex, as they rather point to slightly more north on Hainan.

China usually test launches its ICBM's over land, on lofted trajectories (e.g. see this 2019 blog post). The last time they launched one at full range on a non-lofted trajectory into the Pacific was 44 years ago, in 1980. So this launch is far from a standard test.

In addition to being an ICBM non-lofted test, the test could perhaps also have been for the purpose of testing China's TJS/Huoyan early warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit.

Relevant Navigational Warnings and NOTAM:

231141Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3118/24(91,93).
PHILIPPINE SEA.
PHILIPPINES.
DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 19-46.00N 118-15.00E, 19-36.00N 119-48.00E,
      18-33.00N 119-41.00E, 18-44.00N 118-08.00E.
   B. 19-06.00N 124-41.00E, 18-57.00N 125-42.00E,
      18-11.00N 125-36.00E, 18-21.00N 124-34.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


231521Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3121/24(83).
SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-37.00S 147-14.00W, 10-18.00S 145-31.00W,
   11-08.00S 145-44.00W, 10-27.00S 147-29.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


A3054/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZGZU/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/1952N11145E018
A) ZGZU B) 2409250020 C) 2409250230
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N200247E1113156-N200222E1120118-N194011E1120042-N194142E1113027,BAC
K TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

 

There are three more NOTAM's that correspond to the areas from the Navigational Warnings. (HT to Cosmic Penguin on Twitter for the NOTAM).

 

UPDATE 26 Sep 2024:

China has published images of the launch. It shows a launch from a TEL, with a missile and TEL consistent with a DF-31A or AG.

Image: PLA

SM-3 Block IIA Missile Defense test FTM-44 against an ICBM-class target imminent, 17-19 November 2020 [UPDATED]

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Three days ago, on 12 November 2020, a Navigational Warning appeared that denoted three hazard zones in the northern Pacific for the period 17 to 19 November, connected to what clearly is some kind of missile test:

 

121041Z NOV 20
NAVAREA XII 509/20(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
NORTH PACIFIC.  
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 170400Z TO 171000Z NOV, 
   ALTERNATE 0400Z TO 1000Z DAILY 18 AND 19 NOV 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 09-12N 167-43E, 09-01N 167-40E, 
      08-58N 167-43E, 08-58N 167-48W, 
      09-00N 167-59W, 09-30N 168-18E, 
      09-43N 168-04E. 
   B. 11-22N 170-00E, 11-08N 170-10E, 
      11-44N 173-34E, 13-13N 176-53E, 
      15-39N 178-17E, 18-07N 179-23E, 
      18-48N 177-48E, 17-13N 174-19E,
      16-18N 173-08E, 13-08N 171-00E. 
   C. 44-06N 133-00W, 35-00N 131-00W, 
      28-30N 143-30W, 44-06N 140-30W. 
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 191100Z NOV 20.

 

I have plotted the three area's  in the map below. Note that there appears to be a clerical error in the Navigational Warning for two of the positions defining area A: those reading "W" should probably read "E", which results in a hazard area which makes much more sense (in the map below, the original, probably erroneous, shape for area A is depicted in red: what was likely meant in white).

(note added 17 Nov: an update to this Navigational Warning issued as HYDROPAC 3337/20 confirms the clerical error)

click map to enlarge

The location of the areas lead me to believe it points to a Missile Defense test: an attempt to intercept a dummy Ballistic Missile launched from Kwajalein towards the US main land. Area A denotes the immediate launch hazard zone for the dummy ICBM at Kwajalein; area B where the first second stage of the dummy ICBM will come down; area C the intercept area where the SM-3 interceptor will be fired and the intercept occurs.

Based on the location and shape direction of area C, I initially (and erroneously) thought it might be a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense test from one of the GBMD sites in Alaska. However, after some discussion with the Twitter missile community and some digging around, I am now quite confident that this is not a GMBD test, but an AEGIS SM-3 test, with the SM-3 intercept missile fired from a US Navy Destroyer located in the Pacific in the north of area C. Basically, the situation below:

Click to enlarge

(those of you who remember the infamous Operation Burnt Frost will know the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3): it was used to destroy the malfunctioned USA 193 satellite on 20 February 2008)

Indeed, a Missile Defense test with an SM-3 Block IIA missile, designated as test FTM-44, is known to have been originally scheduled in the Pacific for the third quarter of 2020.  It next was postponed due to the impact of the Corona pandemic, to late 2020. 

The Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 509/20 that appeared three days ago now suggests that the FTM-44 test is imminent, and will take place between 17 and 19 November with the daily window running from 04:00 to 10:00 UT. The locations and shapes of the hazard zones designated in the Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 590/20 fit well with what we know about the FTM-44 test (see below).

A US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 includes the following schematic graphic for FTM-44: compare this to the graphics above and note the clear similarity (note that my figure above is a view from the north,while the MDA figure below is a view from the south):

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Test FTM-44 will be the first attempt at intercepting an ICBM-class  missile rather than a MRBM, extending the system to include ICBM targets. AEGIS previously only included short- and medium range ballistic targets. From the position of area C, the intercept will take place at a range of about 6500 km from the Kwajalein launch site.

As can be seen from the MDA diagram above,  the test includes the use of Space-Based assets (satellites): the Space-Based Infra-Red System (SBIRS) for the initial detection of the launch of the dummy ICBM from GEO and HEO, and the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) for additional tracking of the ICBM missile through midcourse.

Satellites from the STSS system make passes with view of the test area around the following times during the 3-day test window:

Nov 17  ~04:15 UT
Nov 17  ~05:15 UT
Nov 17  ~06:15 UT
Nov 17  ~07:15 UT
Nov 17  ~08:15 UT
Nov 17  ~09:15 UT
Nov 17  ~10:00 UT

Nov 18  ~04:40 UT
Nov 18  ~05:40 UT
Nov 18  ~06:40 UT
Nov 18  ~07:40 UT
Nov 18  ~08:40 UT
Nov 18  ~09:40 UT
Nov 18  ~10:00 UT

Nov 19  ~04:05 UT
Nov 19  ~05:05 UT
Nov 19  ~06:05 UT
Nov 19  ~07:05 UT
Nov 19  ~08:05 UT
Nov 19  ~09:05 UT
Nov 19  ~10:00 UT

The US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 suggests that the FTM-44 SM-3 interceptor will be fired from the USS John Finn. This Arleigh-Burke class Destroyer will probably be located in the northern part of area C from the Navigational Warning.

USS John Finn. Image: US Navy (through Wikimedia)

UPDATE  (17 Nov 11:25 UT):

A news release from the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has confirmed that FTM-44 has taken place this morning, and was successful. It states that the target was launched from the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site at Kwajalein at 7:50 pm Hawaii Standard Time (=17 Nov 5:50 UT). With an approximately 21 minutes flight time, this should place the intercept near 6:11 UT (17 Nov 2020). [edit: but this assumes a typical ICBM speed, zo there is leeway in this time of intercept]

Between the time of launch and intercept, the STSS DEMO 2 satellite (2009-052B) was well positioned to track the target-ICBM mid-course (note: the position of the Destroyer that fired the SM-3 interceptor missile in the image below, has been assumed):

click image to enlarge

SECOND UPDATE:

Footage from the test has been released and can be seen here on the MDA website.

Graphic simulation of the test on the MDA website.

The MDA footage of the target launch and the MDA simulation linked above, confirm that the target ICBM was launched from 9.0065 N, 167.7270 E.

click to enlarge. Image: Google Earth

Acknowledgement: this blog post benefitted from discussions with Simon Petersen, Scott Lafoy and Ankit Panda.