Another Hypersonic glider test (likely AGM-183A ARRW) upcoming, in the Pacific

click map to enlarge

Last weekend saw a scrubbed Hypersonic Missile test from Cape Canaveral, Florida (see a previous post). It looks that another Hypersonic Missile test is upcoming next week, this time in the Pacific in front of California. Lines of evidence point to this Pacific test being another test of the hypersonic AGM-183 ARRW.

This set of three Navigational Warnings (plotted in the map above) have appeared for March 13, 14:00 to 21:00 UTC (with alternative dates from March 15 to 22):

080916Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 108/23(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W, 33-39.52N 120-59.00W,
   33-50.62N 121-43.39W, 33-59.90N 123-10.45W,
   34-00.35N 124-00.97W, 32-33.23N 129-06.23W,
   31-49.78N 128-56.57W, 32-20.90N 123-43.58W,
   32-49.13N 122-03.11W, 33-03.88N 120-31.73W,
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080933Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 109/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   31-26.77N 133-15.50W, 30-43.27N 135-59.02W,
   29-07.80N 135-24.00W, 29-50.62N 132-42.88W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080940Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 110/23(19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-26.27N 139-49.91W, 27-26.70N 142-21.68W,
   26-19.10N 141-47.66W, 27-18.04N 139-17.14W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//

The locations are very similar to those for the first succesful ARRW test of 9 December 2022, indicating that this could be another AGM-183 ARRW test. 

See the map below, where I have plotted Navigational Warnings for the 9 December 2022 ARRW test (red: NAVAREA XII 935, 936 and 937, 2022) and the upcoming test (blue: NAVAREA XII 108, 109 and 110, 2023):

click map to enlarge

The two western-most areas are 100% similar. The launch area in the Point Mugu range in front of the California coast is very similar as well.

The AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) is a missile that is airlaunched from a B52 Stratofortress. A booster missile accellerates a Hypersonic glider to hypersonic speeds of over Mach 5: the Hypersonic glider then is detached from the missile and glides to the target area.

ARRW Test flights in April and July 2021 failed. Two successful booster test flights were conducted in 2022. A first test flight of te full operational prototype on 9 December 2022 was successful.

AGM-183 ARRW under the wing of a B52 during a captive carry test in June 2019
(photo Wikimedia/U.S. Air Force photo by Christopher Okula)

Checking up on high-altitude objects

USA 200 (2008-010A) in HEO on 28 Feb 2023. Click image to enlarge

 

Only a few observers in our network are observing high altitude objects - objects in MEO, HEO and GEO. This is especially the case for HEO objects.

Due to various reasons, my own tracking of these objects over the past year had lapsed as well. But a series of bright clear nights late February, allowed me to pick up on them again. I recovered a number of objects that had not been observed by our network for over a year. USA 200 (2008-010A), in the image above from Feb 28, is one of them. I recovered it on Feb 28 after it had not been observed for almost exactly one year.

Below are a few more (but not all) objects that I observed late February that hadn't been tracked for a long time. All objects were imaged with a Canon EOS 80D + Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens.

USA 179 (2004-034A) in HEO on 26 Feb 2023. Click image to enlarge

USA 269 (2016-047A) in GEO (click image to enlarge)

USA 278 (2017-056A) in HEO. Click image to enlarge

A possible (hypersonic?) missile test from Cape Canaveral [UPDATED]

 

click map to enlarge

An odd Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 221/23 (text of warning below, areas mapped above), was published on March 1, suggesting a launch from Cape Canaveral with a time window from March 2 tot March 6. The jury is still out on what it is, although opinions are converging on a missile test, possibly a test of the hypersonic LHRW.

010205Z MAR 23
NAVAREA IV 221/23(11,24,25 26,51).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   021700Z TO 062138Z MAR IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-32.88N 080-33.89W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
      28-20.00N 080-02.00W, 28-25.62N 080-34.48W.
   B. 28-04.00N 078-49.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
      27-53.00N 077-23.00W, 27-44.00N 077-26.00W.
   C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-22.00N 079-09.00W,
      28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-04.00N 078-49.00W,
      28-03.00N 079-12.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W.
   D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
      27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
      20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
   F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
      32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
   G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
      11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 062238Z MAR 23.

It does not match a scheduled space launch (I initially considered the Terran 1 inaugural launch but noted that the dates do not match) and the seven hazard areas A to G create a pattern with a weird "forked" character, with one leg (A-C-B-E-G) being more or less a straight ballistic trajectory, the other (A-C-B-F-H) suggesting a dog-leg variant.

Twitter user Aerospace001 provided a photograph showing something TEL-like erected at SLC-46:

I think LRHW test. On the left is a photo of SLC-46 at the cape. On the right is a render of the LRHW silo. They look pretty much the same from this angle.

Left Credit: @spacecoast_stve
Right Credit: @LockheedMartin pic.twitter.com/YhIaohOKke

— Aerospace001 (@aerospc001) March 3, 2023

..and the suggestion that this is a test of LRHW, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon under development by the US Army.

Below is a highly simplified reconstruction of what the test might entail, going from the notion that it is a missile test. If it is in fact a hypersonic glider test, the yellow parts of the two trajectory variants might actually look quite different in reality, as such a glider does not follow a ballistic trajectory as depicted, but might manoeuver both in altitude and laterally to the trajectory. 

Both trajectory legs depicted might indicate two variants for the test, possibly at least two test shots.

click map to enlarge

It will be interestingly to see whether or not news on this will follow from the US DoD in the coming days.

More backgrounds on LRHW and this possible test in this article by Tyler Rogoway in the Drive.

UPDATE [6 March 2023 17:05 UTC]:

USA Today reporter Emre Kelly reports on Twitter that DoD sources confirmed a hypersonic test was planned, but that it has been scrubbed.

More also here. Seems a battery issue caused the scrub.

Tracking the Dark Side on a shoestring budget

From January 23 to 26, 2023, I attended the 2nd NEO and Debris Detection Conference at ESOC in Darmstadt, Germany. I had a poster-presentation on  the work we Independent Space Observers (ISO's) from the SeeSat-L mailinglist do on tracking classified objects.

The resulting 6-page Conference Paper, co-authored by Cees Bassa and Ted Molczan and titled "Tracking the dark Side on a shoestring budget", has now appeared in the on-line conference proceedings. The PDF can be downloaded here.

 

Abstract: 

A lot of SSA work on earth-orbiting satellites can be done with modest, off the shelf equipment. This has been shown by an informal group of Independent Space Observers (“ISO’s”) organized around the Seesat-L mailing list. They optically track some 200 “classified” objects – objects for which orbital elements are not provided in the public orbital catalogues – using very simple equipment: from binoculars and stopwatch on the ‘old skool’ end to DSLR’s or sensitive CCTV or CMOS/CCD cameras with fast photographic lenses and GPS time management on the sophisticated end. In this paper, a brief outline is provided on the techniques and equipment used by Seesat-L members and an example is given of how a new launch is located and tracked. It is discussed why the whole concept of keeping the orbits of certain space assets “classified” is problematic: not only is it unrealistic, but it also goes against core notions of transparency and accountability regarding activities in space.

Conclusions: 

A group of Independent Space Observers (ISO’s) has demonstrated that tracking large and medium sized artificial objects in earth orbit, and occasionally even smaller ones such as cubesats, using relatively inexpensive equipment made of commercial-off-the- shelf components is feasible. Such relatively low cost equipment could be a way forward to quickly add optical tracking capacity to increasingly strained tracking networks, especially with the rise of mega-constellations. ISO’s have also demonstrated that certain objects whose orbits are kept “classified” by the responsible Nations, can often easily be observed using such equipment. This underlines how highly unrealistic it is to expect that the orbits of certain (military) space assets can be kept ‘secret’. From the viewpoint of Space traffic management, it is actually undesirable to have a situation where the presence of certain classes of tracked objects are kept undisclosed. The practise moreover goes against core notions of transparency and accountability regarding activities in space, such as laid out in Resolution 222 (XXI) of the United Nations (the ‘Outer Space Treaty’