[UPDATED] A possible Missile Defense Test from Hawaii on October 25-29 (FTM-32?) and another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral

 

click map to enlarge

 [this post was updated 25 Oct 2023 to include an upcoming LRHW test from Cape Canaveral]

 

A Navigational Warning (NAVAREA XII 735/23) has appeared  that suggests a Missile Defense test will take place north of Hawaii with a target launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kauai, Hawaii, in the last week of October. The window runs from October 25 to 29.

200855Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 735/23(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 251930Z TO 260100Z OCT,
   ALTERNATE 261930Z TO 270100Z,
   271930Z TO 280100Z, 281930Z TO 290100Z OCT
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-02.00N 159-47.00W, 22-04.00N 159-52.00W,
   23-52.00N 161-49.00W, 22-37.00N 163-18.00W,
   23-00.00N 164-29.00W, 24-54.00N 164-53.00W,
   27-30.00N 167-44.00W, 29-23.00N 167-44.00W,
   35-17.00N 161-05.00W, 35-46.00N 156-36.00W,
   30-43.00N 152-22.00W, 28-18.00N 152-15.00W,
   27-35.00N 152-48.00W, 26-04.00N 155-40.00W,
   24-19.00N 160-57.00W, 22-09.00N 159-45.00W,
   22-03.00N 159-46.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 290200Z OCT 23.//

In the map above I have plotted the hazard area from the Navigational Warning. The target launch track from PMRF on Kauai can be seen, as well as a large intercept area.

Although not the same, it is riminiscent for that of test FTM-31 E1a of 30 March this year (see a March blogpost) which was a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles from the US Navy ship USS Daniel Inouyeto that intercepted a MRBM target fired from PMRF Kauai.

The upcoming test might be FTM-32  (see page 5 of this Congressional document) which reportedly also will be a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles against an MRBM target [edit: it was actually FTM-48]. The missiles will be fired from a US Navy Guided Missile Cruiser positioned north of Kauai, perhaps USS Carl M. Levin or USS Kidd, who both were seen sailing out of Pearl Harbor recently.

UPDATE 26 Oct 2023:

The test happened on 25 October and involved the interception of multiple targets. The interception was done by the USS Carl M. Levine (DDG120). Two HALO observing aircraft (HALO2 and HALO51) where in the air during the test, along with a US Navy P3, a USAF aircraft and fifth small aircraft. MDA news item on it here and a Naval News story here. It was test FTM-48 codenamed Vigilant Wyvern. The targets consisted of two SRBM's and two cruise missiles, the first intercepted with two SM-3 missiles, the second with two SM-2 missiles.

The MDA released this image of the test, showing one of two SRBM targets being fired from the PMRF Kauai (and the smoke trail of another one):

image: Missile Defence Agency

 They also published this video:

 [end of update]

 

LRHW Test from Cape Canaveral

Meanwhile, another Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 1235/23, is pointing to yet another test of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral on October 26-28:

 

241619Z OCT 23
NAVAREA IV 1235/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 261500Z TO
   281840Z OCT.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-32.93N 080-33.90W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
   28-18.00N 080-02.00W, 28-23.00N 080-31.00W,
   28-25.64N 080-34.47W.
B. 28-02.00N 078-50.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
   27-55.00N 077-24.00W, 27-40.00N 077-27.00W.
C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-24.00N 079-09.00W,
   28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-02.00N 078-50.00W,
   28-00.00N 079-12.00W, 28-18.00N 080-02.00W.
D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
   27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
   20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
   32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
   11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281940Z OCT 23.

click map to enlarge

Two earlier LRHW test attempts, in March (see this blogpost) and in September (see this blogpost) were aborted. Maybe third time is a charm.

UPDATE: this LHRW test was scrubbed as well.

SM-3 Block IIA Missile Defense test FTM-44 against an ICBM-class target imminent, 17-19 November 2020 [UPDATED]

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Three days ago, on 12 November 2020, a Navigational Warning appeared that denoted three hazard zones in the northern Pacific for the period 17 to 19 November, connected to what clearly is some kind of missile test:

 

121041Z NOV 20
NAVAREA XII 509/20(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
NORTH PACIFIC.  
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 170400Z TO 171000Z NOV, 
   ALTERNATE 0400Z TO 1000Z DAILY 18 AND 19 NOV 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 09-12N 167-43E, 09-01N 167-40E, 
      08-58N 167-43E, 08-58N 167-48W, 
      09-00N 167-59W, 09-30N 168-18E, 
      09-43N 168-04E. 
   B. 11-22N 170-00E, 11-08N 170-10E, 
      11-44N 173-34E, 13-13N 176-53E, 
      15-39N 178-17E, 18-07N 179-23E, 
      18-48N 177-48E, 17-13N 174-19E,
      16-18N 173-08E, 13-08N 171-00E. 
   C. 44-06N 133-00W, 35-00N 131-00W, 
      28-30N 143-30W, 44-06N 140-30W. 
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 191100Z NOV 20.

 

I have plotted the three area's  in the map below. Note that there appears to be a clerical error in the Navigational Warning for two of the positions defining area A: those reading "W" should probably read "E", which results in a hazard area which makes much more sense (in the map below, the original, probably erroneous, shape for area A is depicted in red: what was likely meant in white).

(note added 17 Nov: an update to this Navigational Warning issued as HYDROPAC 3337/20 confirms the clerical error)

click map to enlarge

The location of the areas lead me to believe it points to a Missile Defense test: an attempt to intercept a dummy Ballistic Missile launched from Kwajalein towards the US main land. Area A denotes the immediate launch hazard zone for the dummy ICBM at Kwajalein; area B where the first second stage of the dummy ICBM will come down; area C the intercept area where the SM-3 interceptor will be fired and the intercept occurs.

Based on the location and shape direction of area C, I initially (and erroneously) thought it might be a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense test from one of the GBMD sites in Alaska. However, after some discussion with the Twitter missile community and some digging around, I am now quite confident that this is not a GMBD test, but an AEGIS SM-3 test, with the SM-3 intercept missile fired from a US Navy Destroyer located in the Pacific in the north of area C. Basically, the situation below:

Click to enlarge

(those of you who remember the infamous Operation Burnt Frost will know the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3): it was used to destroy the malfunctioned USA 193 satellite on 20 February 2008)

Indeed, a Missile Defense test with an SM-3 Block IIA missile, designated as test FTM-44, is known to have been originally scheduled in the Pacific for the third quarter of 2020.  It next was postponed due to the impact of the Corona pandemic, to late 2020. 

The Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 509/20 that appeared three days ago now suggests that the FTM-44 test is imminent, and will take place between 17 and 19 November with the daily window running from 04:00 to 10:00 UT. The locations and shapes of the hazard zones designated in the Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 590/20 fit well with what we know about the FTM-44 test (see below).

A US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 includes the following schematic graphic for FTM-44: compare this to the graphics above and note the clear similarity (note that my figure above is a view from the north,while the MDA figure below is a view from the south):

Click to enlarge. Image: MDA

Test FTM-44 will be the first attempt at intercepting an ICBM-class  missile rather than a MRBM, extending the system to include ICBM targets. AEGIS previously only included short- and medium range ballistic targets. From the position of area C, the intercept will take place at a range of about 6500 km from the Kwajalein launch site.

As can be seen from the MDA diagram above,  the test includes the use of Space-Based assets (satellites): the Space-Based Infra-Red System (SBIRS) for the initial detection of the launch of the dummy ICBM from GEO and HEO, and the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) for additional tracking of the ICBM missile through midcourse.

Satellites from the STSS system make passes with view of the test area around the following times during the 3-day test window:

Nov 17  ~04:15 UT
Nov 17  ~05:15 UT
Nov 17  ~06:15 UT
Nov 17  ~07:15 UT
Nov 17  ~08:15 UT
Nov 17  ~09:15 UT
Nov 17  ~10:00 UT

Nov 18  ~04:40 UT
Nov 18  ~05:40 UT
Nov 18  ~06:40 UT
Nov 18  ~07:40 UT
Nov 18  ~08:40 UT
Nov 18  ~09:40 UT
Nov 18  ~10:00 UT

Nov 19  ~04:05 UT
Nov 19  ~05:05 UT
Nov 19  ~06:05 UT
Nov 19  ~07:05 UT
Nov 19  ~08:05 UT
Nov 19  ~09:05 UT
Nov 19  ~10:00 UT

The US Naval Institute news release from August 2020 suggests that the FTM-44 SM-3 interceptor will be fired from the USS John Finn. This Arleigh-Burke class Destroyer will probably be located in the northern part of area C from the Navigational Warning.

USS John Finn. Image: US Navy (through Wikimedia)

UPDATE  (17 Nov 11:25 UT):

A news release from the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has confirmed that FTM-44 has taken place this morning, and was successful. It states that the target was launched from the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site at Kwajalein at 7:50 pm Hawaii Standard Time (=17 Nov 5:50 UT). With an approximately 21 minutes flight time, this should place the intercept near 6:11 UT (17 Nov 2020). [edit: but this assumes a typical ICBM speed, zo there is leeway in this time of intercept]

Between the time of launch and intercept, the STSS DEMO 2 satellite (2009-052B) was well positioned to track the target-ICBM mid-course (note: the position of the Destroyer that fired the SM-3 interceptor missile in the image below, has been assumed):

click image to enlarge

SECOND UPDATE:

Footage from the test has been released and can be seen here on the MDA website.

Graphic simulation of the test on the MDA website.

The MDA footage of the target launch and the MDA simulation linked above, confirm that the target ICBM was launched from 9.0065 N, 167.7270 E.

click to enlarge. Image: Google Earth

Acknowledgement: this blog post benefitted from discussions with Simon Petersen, Scott Lafoy and Ankit Panda.