A Chinese ICBM test launch at full range, into the central Pacific, on September 25

click image to enlarge

click image to enlarge

In a surprise move, China conducted a (for them) unusual ICBM test launch on September 25, 2024. They launched an ICBM at full range, targetting an RV splash-down area in the central Pacific.

According to China the missile, with a "dummy warhead", was launched at 00:44 UTC (Sept 25) "to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean". Several countries (including the US, Japan) were reportedly informed before the test, and Navigational Warnings were issued for the RV impact area and missile stage splashdown areas two days before the test.

The Navigational Warnings and NOTAM's indicate that the missile was launched from the northern part of Hainan Island, with RV splashdown near 10.4 S, 146.5 W near French Polynesia, some 700 km west of Nuku Hiva and 875 km northeast of Bora Bora. The indicated range flown by the ICBM was about 11 700 km.

I have plotted the relevant hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings (HYDROPAC 3118/24, HYDROPAC 3121/24) and a NOTAM (A3054/24) with a matching reconstructed ballistic flight path on the map below, while the two illustrations in top of this post show the approximate trajectory in 3D (assuming apogee at 1200 km and launch on the Hainan coast).

click map to enlarge

Given the launch from Hainan, it was likely a road-mobile ICBM (perhaps a DF-31 or DF-41 [UPDATE: it was a road-mobile DF-31A or AG, see update at bottom of post]) launched from a TEL. The exact launch location is still unclear at the moment. The location of the hazard areas (especially that from NOTAM A3054/24) seem to rule out launch from the Wenchang Space Launch Complex, as they rather point to slightly more north on Hainan.

China usually test launches its ICBM's over land, on lofted trajectories (e.g. see this 2019 blog post). The last time they launched one at full range on a non-lofted trajectory into the Pacific was 44 years ago, in 1980. So this launch is far from a standard test.

In addition to being an ICBM non-lofted test, the test could perhaps also have been for the purpose of testing China's TJS/Huoyan early warning satellites in geosynchronous orbit.

Relevant Navigational Warnings and NOTAM:

231141Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3118/24(91,93).
PHILIPPINE SEA.
PHILIPPINES.
DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 19-46.00N 118-15.00E, 19-36.00N 119-48.00E,
      18-33.00N 119-41.00E, 18-44.00N 118-08.00E.
   B. 19-06.00N 124-41.00E, 18-57.00N 125-42.00E,
      18-11.00N 125-36.00E, 18-21.00N 124-34.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


231521Z SEP 24
HYDROPAC 3121/24(83).
SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   242200Z TO 250400Z SEP IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-37.00S 147-14.00W, 10-18.00S 145-31.00W,
   11-08.00S 145-44.00W, 10-27.00S 147-29.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 250500Z SEP 24.


A3054/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZGZU/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/1952N11145E018
A) ZGZU B) 2409250020 C) 2409250230
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N200247E1113156-N200222E1120118-N194011E1120042-N194142E1113027,BAC
K TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

 

There are three more NOTAM's that correspond to the areas from the Navigational Warnings. (HT to Cosmic Penguin on Twitter for the NOTAM).

 

UPDATE 26 Sep 2024:

China has published images of the launch. It shows a launch from a TEL, with a missile and TEL consistent with a DF-31A or AG.

Image: PLA