An upcoming French SLBM test in the Atlantic, ARRW, and a failed Minuteman test in the Pacific

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While strong Autumn storms and rainshowers (the image above is an APT image my radio received from NOAA 19 this morning, showing storm Ciarán over the Channel) are making satellite observations impossible, various missile test activities the past and upcoming weeks keep me occupied.

In a previous post I wrote about a Missile Defense test, FTM-48 north of Hawaii on October 25, and indications for another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral (it is unknown whether the latter test happened: FTM-48 reportedly was a success).

In this post, I will write about three other missile tests. 

 

French M51 SLBM test

First, an upcoming French M51 SLBM test to be launched from DGA Essais de missiles near Biscarrosse on the southwest coast of France. Its trajectory is over the Gulf of Biscaye and northern Atlantic towards a target area some 830 km south of Saint-Pierre et Miquelon (two French islands in front of the Newfoundland coast). 

Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROLANT 2484/23 and NAVAREA IV 1273/23 ) have appeared that indicate the test, with a window running from November 6 to December 1. Below is a map with the hazard zones for this test and the text of the Navigational Warnings:

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311957Z OCT 23
HYDROLANT 2484/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z
   DAILY 06 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 44-26.33N 001-15.67W, 44-28.00N 001-20.00W,
      44-35.00N 001-27.75W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W,
      44-23.50N 002-25.00W, 44-14.75N 001-35.75W,
      44-17.25N 001-26.75W, 44-18.00N 001-17.00W.
   B. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 45-22.57N 006-11.45W,
      45-05.33N 006-16.65W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W.
   C. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W,
      44-23.50N 002-24.98W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W.
   D. 47-08.05N 014-18.15W, 47-20.18N 017-10.22W,
      45-33.87N 017-23.13W, 45-22.12N 014-36.47W.
   E. 47-05.02N 029-54.25W, 46-58.67N 031-53.87W,
      46-11.73N 031-47.78W, 46-17.98N 029-49.87W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.


020945Z NOV 23
NAVAREA IV 1273/23(14).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z DAILY
   06 NOV THRU 01 DEC IN AREA WITHIN
   80 MILES OF 39-21.36N 057-43.60W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.//

The indicated range for this test is about 5100 km, which is somewhat less than the test on 28 April 2021, as can be seen in this map comparing the two tests:

click map to enlarge

The test involves a manoeuvre changing the heading of the missile somewhere after jettison of the third stage. The shorter range, and closer range to the splashdown zones of the stages, could indicate either a more loftet test or (more likely) a heavier payload.

UPDATE:

The Navigational Warnings have been re-issued for Nov 16 - Dec 1 and adding an additional time window (18:00-23:59 UTC):

161904Z NOV 23
HYDROLANT 2631/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1200Z AND
   1800Z TO 2359Z DAILY 16 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 44-18.00N 001-17.00W, 44-17.25N 001-26.75W,
   44-14.75N 001-35.75W, 44-23.50N 002-25.00W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-35.00N 001-27.75W,
   44-28.00N 001-20.00W, 44-26.33N 001-15.67W.
B. 45-22.57N 006-11.45W, 45-05.33N 006-16.65W,
   44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W.
C. 44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-23.50N 002-24.98W.
D. 47-20.18N 017-10.22W, 45-33.87N 017-23.13W,
   45-22.12N 014-36.47W, 47-08.05N 014-18.15W.
E. 46-58.67N 031-53.87W, 46-11.73N 031-47.78W,
   46-17.98N 029-49.87W, 47-05.02N 029-54.25W.
2. CANCEL HYDROLANT 2628/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 020100Z DEC 23.

UPDATE 18 Nov 2023:

The SLBM test happened this evening, 18 Nov 2023, around 18:20 UTC. Several spectacular images and video footage of illuminated exhaust cloluds were obtained from France, Spain and Italy.

US AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic test

On the other side of the World, in the Northwest Pacific between California and Hawaii, another AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic missile test appears to be on the calendar for November 4th, with an alternative window between Nov 7 and 13, as indicated by this Navigational Warning:

300930Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 760/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 041200Z TO 042030Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 1300Z TO 2130Z DAILY 07 AND 13 NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 31-55.63N 127-43.18W, 33-12.37N 122-41.36W,
      33-06.52N 119-53.89W, 32-55.31N 119-51.90W,
      32-03.13N 122-28.33W, 31-40.94N 127-39.48W.
   B. 28-34.12N 135-59.93W, 30-09.63N 136-34.60W,
      30-52.95N 133-51.97W, 29-16.77N 133-19.65W.
   C. 26-17.92N 141-50.77W, 27-26.72N 142-21.67W,
      28-20.65N 139-47.33W, 27-11.27N 139-17.77W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 132230Z NOV 23.//

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 The areas are similar to earlier known or suspected ARRW tests:

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This missile must be one of the last of the (scrapped) AGM-183 program left.

Failed Minuteman-III ICBM test

Meanwhile, November 1 saw what should have been a rather routine Minuteman-III ICBM test from Vandenberg to Illegini Island, Kwajalein, going awry.

According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, an anomaly occurred and the missile was terminated in flight. A nice photograph of the launch is here.

Below is the map with the trajectory the missile should have flown, and the relevant Navigational Warnings:

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260936Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 749/23(18,19,81).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 01 AND 02 NOV:
   A. 0631Z TO 1335Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 121-25.00W, 34-40.00N 120-54.00W,
      34-46.00N 120-37.00W, 34-57.00N 120-37.00W,
      34-58.00N 120-58.00W, 34-58.00N 121-24.00W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1340Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-19.00N 124-36.00W, 34-40.00N 124-39.00W,
      34-56.00N 121-59.00W, 34-36.00N 121-56.00W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1347Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-30.00N 137-13.00W, 32-48.00N 137-18.00W,
      33-04.00N 136-01.00W, 32-45.00N 135-56.00W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      14-36.00N 175-34.00E, 14-54.00N 175-13.00E,
      14-35.00N 174-55.00E, 14-23.00N 174-49.00E,
      14-17.00N 174-54.00E, 14-17.00N 175-15.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021531Z NOV 23.//


270329Z OCT 23
HYDROPAC 3397/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 010700Z TO 011411Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 020700Z TO 021411Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   A. 09-53.00N 168-50.00E, 09-55.00N 168-47.00E,
      09-32.00N 168-09.00E, 09-24.00N 167-35.00E,
      09-09.00N 167-08.00E, 08-45.00N 167-23.00E,
      09-01.00N 167-49.00E, 08-51.00N 168-22.00E,
      08-54.00N 168-32.00E, 09-18.00N 169-10.00E,
      09-20.00N 169-11.00E.
   B. 11-08.00N 172-02.00E, 12-18.00N 171-37.00E
      13-20.00N 170-42.00E, 13-28.00N 170-33.00E
      13-20.00N 170-07.00E, 13-14.00N 170-00.00E,
      13-07.00N 169-54.00E, 12-01.00N 170-24.00E,
      11-54.00N 170-31.00E, 10-59.00N 171-14.00E,
      10-52.00N 171-22.00E, 10-57.00N 171-47.00E,
      10-59.00N 171-54.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021511Z NOV 23.//

UPDATED: Ceci n'est pas une pipe... (French and US missile tests in the Atlantic in June)

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They must love Magritte over at the French DoD, looking at the shape of the exclusion zones for a missile test published as Navigational Warnings HYDROLANT 1371/23 and HYDROLANT 1372/23.

The Navigational Warnings point to a French missile test launched from DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, over the Bay of Biscaye, in the period 26 to 30 June 2023. Below is the text of the Navigational Warnings:

201628Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1371/23(36,37).
BAY OF BISCAY.
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08, DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
   26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
   46-33.50N 004-51.90W, 48-27.00N 010-03.00W,
   48-27.00N 015-12.00W, 47-04.50N 014-59.10W,
   46-05.70N 013-39.00W, 44-02.30N 001-20.00W,
   44-49.50N 001-12.30W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.


201646Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1372/23(36).
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
   26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
   50-15.00N 011-08.00W, 49-40.00N 010-11.00W,
   48-27.00N 010-03.00W, 48-27.00N 015-12.00W,
   49-51.00N 013-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.

 

The shape and range of the Navigational Warnings suggest something SRBM/MRBM rather than, for example an SLBM. The curved shape is odd. After I posted the Warnings on Twitter, there has been some speculation that this might be a test of a hypersonic glider, perhaps V-Max. Taking into account the curve in the exclusion area, the range of this test would be in the order of 1250 km.

 

UPDATE 27 June 2023:

The test launch took place yesterday, 26 June 2023 at 22h CEST: see this French DoD bulletin, which also confirms that it was a test of the VMax glider on top of a sounding rocket.

A lot of chance sightings of the lingering missile exhaust cloud, illuminated by the sun, have been posted on Twitter, most of these from northern Spain but also a few from SW France. See for example here, here and here for a few examples. 

The French Ministère des Armées provided this image of  *a* launch. I have some doubts whether it is this particular VMAX launch, as the scenery seems sunlit with the sun in the South-Southeast (look at the shadows), while the launch was near 22 CEST, with the sun setting or just set in the Northwest...

[EDIT: the image seems to be a cgi render, i.e. not a real image, so that explains...]
 

Click to enlarge (image: Ministère des Armées, France)

[end of update]

 

More Atlantic tests: US or UK Trident test

This is not the only test in the Atlantic this June. Slightly earlier, a Navigational Warning, HYDROLANT 1302/23, appeared, strongly suggesting a Trident-II D5 SLBM test in the period 14 to 17 June 2023, launched from a submarine near Florida:

121246Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1302/23(GEN).
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
DNC 01, DNC 16.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 141140Z TO 170029Z JUN
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39.00N 076-31.00W, 29-09.00N 076-13.00W,
      28-47.00N 074-59.00W, 28-17.00N 075-14.00W.
   B. 28-01.00N 073-25.00W, 28-07.00N 073-22.00W,
      27-53.00N 072-04.00W, 27-31.00N 071-57.00W,
      27-33.00N 072-24.00W.
   C. 25-46.00N 067-21.00W, 26-19.00N 067-01.00W,
      25-40.00N 065-42.00W, 25-08.00N 065-59.00W.
   D. 14-00.00N 042-36.00W, 14-14.00N 042-28.00W,
      13-41.00N 041-24.00W, 12-15.00N 039-09.00W,
      11-40.00N 039-30.00W, 12-41.00N 041-09.00W.
   E. 19-32.00S 007-27.00E, 18-42.00S 007-53.00E,
      19-52.00S 010-33.00E, 20-46.00S 010-02.00E,
      20-24.00S 009-17.00E, 20-12.00S 008-49.00E,
      20-06.00S 008-41.00E, 20-03.00S 008-33.00E,
      20-02.00S 008-29.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170129Z JUN 23.


Here is the map I created from this Navigational Warning, with the areas A to E and the approximately 10600 km trajectory:

click map to enlarge

At the moment of writing, we are past the window of the Navigational Warning for this Trident test, but no word has come about a successful test launch yet.

The launch area some 450 km out of the coast of Florida is one of two regularly used launch areas for Trident test launches. It is launch area 2 in the compilation below of data from nine 9 Trident test launches from the last 10 years I could identify:

click map to enlarge

The RV target area in front of the coast of Namibia is near one of three areas regularly used (target area 3 in the map below), but somewhat closer to the African coast than previous tests:

Click map to enlarge

 

 

 

 

A few more maps for tis and histroic Trident tests: first, stage 1 and stage 2 splashdown areas for launches from launch area 1 (top) and launch area 2 (bottom):

Launch area 1 launches. Click map to enlarge

Launch area 2 launche. Click map to enlarge

As I indicated in an earlier analysis, I suspect that launch area 1, much closer to the Florida coast than launch area 2, is used for launches with a VIP audience.

The two maps below show the mid-Atlantic third stage splashdown zones for the two launch areas in question: