NROL-108: another mystery launch perhaps similar to NROL-76 (USA 276)? [UPDATED]

UPDATE 17 December 2020 16:15 UT:

today's launch was scrubbed due to a pressure anomaly in the upper stage. A new launch attempt will be on December 18th 19th.

UPDATE 20 December 2020 12:20 UT:
NROL-108 launched succesfully on 19 december at 14:00 UT. A fuel dump was observed from New Zealand.

On 17 18 19 December 2020, SpaceX will launch a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). The launch, from Cape Canaveral platform 39A in Florida, is designated NROL-108. The Navigational Warnings window opens at 13:55 UT and closes at 17:52 UT, pointing to launch somewhere between ~14:00-17:45 UT [edit: the scrub on December 17 suggests a window starting at 14:45 UT and ending at 17:00 UT] . The first stage will attempt to do a RTLS (return-to-launch-site).

NROL-108 is very odd as it was a surprise addition to the launch schedule in early October 2020, seemingly coming out of nowhere. It was originally slated for launch on October 25, but was postponed to December. The character of the mission is a mystery: this looks to be something new again.

The following Navigational Warnings have appeared for the launch hazard areas and the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area:

 NAVAREA IV 1201/20
 WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
 FLORIDA.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
    171355Z TO 171752Z DEC, ALTERNATE
    181355Z TO 181752Z DEC
 IN AREAS BOUND BY:
 A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
    28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
    28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
 B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
    30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
    31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
    30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
    30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181852Z DEC 20.//

 HYDROPAC 3673/20
 EASTERN PACIFIC.
 DNC 06, DNC 13.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
    171508Z TO 171841Z DEC, ALTERNATE
    181508Z TO 181841Z DEC
 IN AREA BOUND BY
    12-27S 135-24W, 11-03S 135-01W,
    04-31N 125-02W, 12-23N 118-23W,
    11-34N 117-22W, 01-11N 123-20W,
    11-32S 132-38W, 13-10S 134-27W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181941Z DEC 20.//

These hazard areas plotted on a map:

click map to enlarge

 

The time window for the upper stage deorbit and the fact that the first stage will attempt an RTLS point to a launch into Low Earth Orbit. The launch direction and the location of the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area point to a launch into an orbit with an orbital inclination near 52 degrees.

The location of the launch hazard areas is somewhat similar to the launch hazard area for the May 2017 mystery launch of USA 276 (NROL-76). In the map below, the two hazard areas for NROL-108 are in red, while the launch hazard area for NROL-76 (USA 276) from May 2017 is in blue:

click map to enlarge

USA 276/NROL-76 was a mystery NRO launch, like NROL-108 launched by SpaceX, in May 2017, that raised eyebrows because the payload made a series of very close flyby's of the International Space Station a month after launch (see my July 2017 article in The Space Review).

USA 276 went, as subsequent orbital observations of the payload by our amateur network showed, into a ~400 km altitude, 50-degree inclined orbit, so a 50-degree inclined orbit is perhaps also an option for NROL-108.

Such a 50-degrees inclined orbit does not match well with the position of the deorbit zone for the Falcon 9 upper stage. The latter will be deorbitted over the eastern Pacific near the end of the first revolution, the Navigational Warnings show. So for now, the 52-degree inclination (give or take a degree) looks a bit more likely. Still, I do not want to rule out a 50-degree inclined orbit altogether, as the Falcon 9 upper stage might end up in a somewhat different orbit than the payload

In May 2017, USA 276 was launched into an orbital plane very close to that of the ISS, which resulted in the close encounters a month later. 

The launch window for NROL-108 (~14:00-17:50 UT) rules out that NROL-108 will do something similar: the ISS orbital plane does not pass over or near the launch site during this time window. 

It is possible however that NROL-108 aims for an orbital plane near that of USA 276. The orbital plane of USA 276, which due to orbital precession over the past 3 years no longer is close to that of the ISS, passes over Cape Canaveral Launch Pad 39A near 17:02 UT, inside the NROL-108 launch window. This opens up the possibility that NROL-108 is perhaps a close approach target for USA 276, or USA 276 is a close approach target for NROL-108 (but that is pure and wild speculation: Caveat Emptor). [UPDATE: see the update at end of this post. It did not target the USA 276 orbital plane]

It will be interesting to see in which orbit NROL-108 will end up. As I have remarked with some launches earlier  this year, the latest NRO launches all seem to be  'new' kinds of payloads that are likely experimental/Mission demonstrators, and which go into 'new' kinds of orbits: lately we have frequently seen orbital inclinations near 50-degrees and odd orbital altitudes (either very low or very high). NROL-108 will certainly go into a Low Earth Orbit, and it will be interesting to see what the exact launch time will be, whether it will go into a 400 km orbit similar to the orbital altitude of USA 276, and what the eventual orbital inclination will be.

UPDATE 20 December 2020:

NROL-108 launched succesfully at 14:00 UT on December 19th. Slightly over an hour after launch, near 15:15 UT, a fuel dump (following a deorbit burn) from the Falcon 9 upper stage was observed from New Zealand. The facebook-post here shows the classic spiral shape of such a fuel dump. The Youtube video below shot from Pukehina Beach by Astrofarmer shows less detail but includes time details:

 

 

Assuming the included times in the video are correct, this allows me to make a new estimate of the orbital altitude in which the satellite was inserted, which is probably ~600 km rather than the ~400 km of my initial estimate, looking at the time the rocket stage passed south of New Zealand:

NROL-108
1 70000U 20999A   20354.58333333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
2 70000 051.9000 194.4979 0003581 047.9699 326.1978 14.88539141    08

The orbital inclination of the satellite is still a bit uncertain but likely ~52 degrees.

The launch time (14:00 UT) excludes that the orbital plane of USA 276 was targetted (the orbital plane of the latter passed over the launch site two hours after launch).

 

UPDATE 2 (20 Dec 2020):

Radio observers have now catalogued the payload in a 519 x 539 km, 51.35 degree inclined orbit.

NROL-101: probably a HEO mission [or maybe not! See update at bottom]

click map to enlarge

EDIT 4 Nov 2020 22:30 UT: 

post UPDATED with new maps and new value for inclination parking orbit

EDIT 2, 22:50 UT (Nov 4): the launch has been SCRUBBED for at least 48 hours...

EDIT 3, 7 Nov 22: launch is now currently scheduled for 11 Nov, 22:22 UT 

EDIT 4, Nov 13:  NROL-101 cleared the tower at 22:32 UT (Nov 13)

If weather cooperates,ULA will launch NROL-101, a classified payload for the NRO, on November 11 (postponed from November 3 and 4). Based on Navigational Warnings, the launch window is from 22:00 UT (Nov 11) to 02:45UT (Nov 12), with ULA indicating a launch window start at 22:22 UT. 

[ EDIT: eventually, NROL-101 launched on 13 Nov 2020 at 22:32 UT ] 

The launch is from platform 41 on Cape Canaveral, using an Atlas V rocket in 531 configuration (5-m fairing, 3 strap-on boosters, 1 single engine Centaur upper stage). It would have originally flown in 551 configuration but this was changed. It is the first Atlas V flight to feature the new GEM 63 solid fuel strap-on boosters.

This Navigational Warning has appeared in connection to this launch (updated):

062038Z NOV 20
NAVAREA IV 1074/20(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   112200Z TO 120245Z NOV, ALTERNATE
   122200Z TO 130245Z AND 132200Z TO 140245Z
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-38-50N 080-37-34W, 29-58-00N 079-28-00W,
      29-54-00N 079-21-00W, 29-34-00N 079-36-00W,
      29-15-00N 079-45-00W, 28-36-00N 080-23-00W,
      28-30-57N 080-33-15W.
   B. 30-01-00N 079-33-00W, 31-08-00N 078-36-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-14-00W, 29-47-00N 079-11-00W.
   C. 36-38-00N 073-35-00W, 39-03-00N 071-00-00W,
      38-30-00N 070-13-00W, 36-05-00N 072-46-00W.
   D. 51-37-00N 049-45-00W, 53-32-00N 044-58-00W,
      52-54-00N 044-15-00W, 51-03-00N 049-07-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140345Z NOV 20.

The launch azimuth from the location of the hazard zones in this Navigational Warning and the initial launch azimuth depicted in a map tweeted by ULA point to an initial lauch into a [value updated] ~56-degree ~57.75 degree inclined orbit:

 

click map to enlarge

However: this is likely only a temporary parking orbit. The 531 rocket configuration has never been used for a launch into LEO so far, but always for launch into GEO. Given the launch azimuth, NROL-101 will certainly not be launched into GEO. 

So either the payload is destined for LEO but unusually heavy or (more likely) the final orbit aimed for is a HEO orbit (also known as a  Molniya orbit) with inclination ~63 degrees, perigee at ~2000 km over the southern hemisphere and apogee near 37 8000 km over the Arctic. [But: see major update at bottom! It might have been MEO rather than HEO, but this remains uncertain!]

A 63-degree inclined Molniya orbit cannot be reached directly from the Cape, because of overflight restrictions. Hence the initial launch azimuth corresponding to a ~58-degree inclined orbit. If NROL-101 goes into a Molniya orbit, it will do a dog-leg some time after launch, or (more likely) coast in a ~58-degree inclined parking orbit for perhaps several hours before being boosted into a Molniya orbit by the Centaur.

This appears to be underlined by the fact that to date (Sunday Nov 1) no Navigational Warnings have been issued for the reentry area of the Centaur upper stage. This could indicate that the upper stage will be left orbiting in a ~2000 x 37 8000 km transfer orbit, or is disposed into a Heliocentric orbit.

The NRO so far launched three kinds of  satellites into HEO orbits:

1) Data communication satellites (SDS);

2) SIGINT satellites (Trumpet FO);

3) combined SIGINT (Trumpet FO) and SBIRS Early warning satellites.

The last SIGINT/SBIRS combination launched into HEO was USA 278, launched in 2017. The last SDS launch into HEO was USA 198 in 2007 (there was also a launch in 2017 but this was into GEO, not HEO). As Ted Molczan pointed out in  a private com, SIGINT launches into HEO usually were done from Vandenberg, SDS launches from Cape Canaveral. So perhaps NROL-101 will carry a new SDS satellite, but this is far from certain. Radio observations after launch might shed some light on both orbit and payload character.

The initial trajectory will take it over NW Europe some 23 minutes after launch, but in Earth shadow, so the pass will not be visible:

click map to enlarge

 

UPDATE 15 Nov 2020 15:20 UT

Around 2:30 UT on Nov 14, four hours after launch, sightings of a fuel venting event were observed from the western USA.

This image tweeted by  Marc Leatham shows the V-shaped cloud in Saggitarius, imaged from Joshua Tree National Park:

🔎**EXPAND**🔍 Early in the evening last night in Joshua Tree, California, I was taking some test shots of the Milkyway. While editing, something popped out at me. If I'm not mistaken, that diffuse V shape must be #NROL101 launched from Florida! @torybruno, Am I right?!? 🔭☄️✨ pic.twitter.com/j2tNAICqji

— Marc Leatham (@quarkmarc) November 14, 2020

There is also allsky imagery of the fuel cloud from Taos, New Mexico (look low at the horizon where the milky way touches the horizon(right side), for a 'moving' piece of Milky Way. This is the fuel cloud):

These sightings lead us to believe that the payload perhaps went into the lower part of MEO, not HEO. This is however (emphasis) not certain at this moment.

The launch sequence then could have been insertion into a LEO parking orbit; an apogee raising burn; a perigee raising/circularization burn bringing it into HEO; and fuel vent/orbit separation burn by the Centaur rocket. That latter event caused the observed fuel cloud, at about 8500 km altitude.

ULA reported 'mission successful' around 1:48 UT. For the launch provider, their mission is completed upon payload separation. 1.48 UT corresponds to a pass through the southern apex of the orbit, suggesting payload separation was at that point. This, in combinbation with the observed Centaur vent, would argue against insertion into HEO but does fit insertion into MEO.

If my guess is correct, then this should be the approximate orbit (orbital position is the approximate position for the time of the Joshus Tree fuel cloud sighting):

click to enlarge

 

Both the Centaur and payload have been catalogued (but without orbital elements) by CSpOC, as #46918 (2020-083A) USA 310 and #46919 (2020-083B) Atlas V Centaur R/B.

If USA 310 indeed went into HEO, then the identity/character of the payload remains a big guess.

Added note, 4 Nov 2020, 21:30 UT: the maps and inclination of the initial parking orbit have been updated based on a map showing the initial trajectory up to fairing jettison tweeted by ULA boss Tory Bruno.

This post benefitted from discussions with Cees Bassa, Scott Tilley, Ted Molczan and Bob Christy.

What is NROL-47 and in what orbit will it be launched? [updated twice]

UPDATE 10 Jan 17:25 UT: The launch has been scrubbed due to high altitude winds, and moved one day to Jan 11. New start of launch window is given as 1 pm PST = 20:00 21:00 UT. This means the launch window is shifting, indicating a prefered orbital plane and launch probably right at the start of the launch window.

Update 12 Jan: The launch was again scrubbed yesterday, and is now slated for January 12, 21:00 UT . My remark about a  shifting launch window above was in error, I missed that the Maritime Broadcast Warning window opens somewhat before the actual launch window opens.

Final Update , 12 Jan: NROL-47 successfully lifted off from Vandenberg SLC-6  at 22:11 UT!

Final Update 14 Jan 2018: Amateur observers using radio have located NROL-47 in orbit. It is transmitting in the TOPAZ frequency, 2241.52 MHz. The orbit is still very preliminary but appears to point to ~1100 km orbital altitude and an orbital inclination of ~105-106 degrees. This would identify NROL-47 as a new TOPAZ, but in an orbital plane that differs from the previous four TOPAZ satellites. Due to bad weather at the observing sites of several of our active observers (I was clouded out yesterday evening myself for example), optical observations have not yet been reported.

Hot after the excitement and drama of the Zuma launch (see my previous post), a new classified launch is upcoming on Wednesday January 10, when ULA will launch NROL-47, a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), on a Delta IV from Vandenberg SLC-6 in California.

From Maritime Broadcast Warnings, the launch window opens at 20:30 UT and closes at 01:26 UT. [edit 1] After a one-day delay due to weather conditions, the launch is now slated to be on the 11th of January with the launch window opening 21:00 UT. The shifting launch window time indicates a launch into a preferred orbital plane, and it is likely that launch will be right at the opening of the launch window. [end of edit 1] [edit 2] This launch was scrubbed as well, and launch is now slated for 12 January 21:00 UT [end of edit 2]

The launch is in Westward direction, into retrograde orbit. This has led some space news websites to assume that the NROL-47 payload is the 5th TOPAZ (FIA Radar) satellite.

But is it? I have some doubts.

If it is TOPAZ 5, then it is clearly a deviation from the previous four launches. The launch hazard zones from published Maritime Broadcast Warnings show that the launch azimuth is different - previous TOPAZ missions all launched into azimuth 220 degrees, but NROL-47 launches into azimuth 200 degrees, a 20 degree difference.

NROL-47 Launch hazard areas (red) compared to the areas of four TOPAZ (FIA Radar) launches
click map to enlarge

This can be clearly seen on the map above, where the NROL-47 hazard zones are in red, and the hazard zones from the four TOPAZ in purple, green, light blue and dark blue. The azimuth and locations of the zones from the four TOPAZ launches are all quite similar, but those of NROL-47 stand out as different.

All the four TOPAZ satellites are in a 123.0 degree inclined retrograde orbit. The NROL-47 launch azimuth results in a retrograde orbit too, but with an orbital inclination of 108.6 degrees, not 123.0 degrees: a 14.4 degree difference.

The orbital altitude aimed for appears to be different too. The four TOPAZ satellites are in 1100 x 1110 km orbits. But the location of the Delta IV Upper Stage de-orbit zone (between South Africa and Antarctica), its shape and the opening time of the window (23:23 UT) points to the NROL-47 payload going into a 1500 km altitude orbit instead.[edit: from the first post-launch radio observations (see update in top of this post), the payload actually appears to be in a ~1100 km orbit, similar to previous TOPAZ: but indeed in a different orbital plane than the previous TOPAZ - end of edit]

estimated trajectory of NROL-47
click map to enlarge

So if this is the 5th TOPAZ launching as NROL-47 on Wednesday, then it is going into a quite different orbit compared to the previous four TOPAZ: different in orbital inclination as well as in orbital altitude.

In theory, the Delta IV rocket could do a "dogleg" and (when launching at 20:30 UT) deliver the NROL-47 payload into the 123.0 degree inclined orbit close to the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1 (FIA Radar 1). A second manoeuvre near the south polar pass could then align the RAAN and bring it exactly into the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1.

But why do that, if previous TOPAZ launches simply launched directly into the 123.0 degree inclination orbit?

So in my view, the jury is still out regarding the identity of NROL-47. It could be a 5th TOPAZ but in a quite different orbit compared to the previous four (in itself possible: the Lacrosses also occupied two different orbital inclinations). It could also be something new. If something new, it likely will be a radar satellite (like TOPAZ), given the retrograde character of the orbit. [edit - from radio observations, it appears to be a TOPAZ, but in a different orbital p;lane than the earlier TOPAZ -end of edit]

orbital constellation of TOPAZ 1, 2, 3 and 4 in 123.0 degree inclined orbits
The orbits are spaced 90 degrees in RAAN
click image to enlarge

The deliberate re-entry of the Upper Stage happens 1.5 revolutions (2h 55m) after launch.

Estimated search orbits, based on a 108.6 degree orbital inclination, are here. New elset estimates for the new launch date and time are here. South Africa will have two visible passes after launch.

An UPDATE on this post, with post-launch imagery of the payload in orbit, is here.

Eagle Eyes

Recently I posted a topic on USA 184, one of the SBIRS-HEO satellites. That post was illustrated with amongst others this patch:

click image to enlarge

A sharp eyed reader, graphic designer and illustrator Olivier Rossel (PXP), noted something odd in the patch. More exactly, in the bothom "beard" of feathers of the Eagle's head.

I had not noted it until Olivier pointed it out (and it is so obvious now!), but letters are spelled out there:

(image courtesy of Olivier Rossel)

You can read the words "GEO", "DSP" and "HEO". These are all relevant to the US Infrared Early Warning system. SBIRS has satellites in two kind of orbits: GEO (geosynchronous) and HEO (Highly Elliptical Orbit - see my earlier post). DSP is the Defense Support Program, the predecessor of the newer SBIRS, consisting of a number of satellites in GEO.

Some Russian guy, Ivan Karavay, identified the words earlier in a post in this forum (in Russian) but I had never seen it until Olivier pointed it out to me.This while I knew words are sometimes hidden in NRO-related patches. Take these patches for example, from the NRO launches NROL-25, NROL-34, NROL-41 and NROL-49:

click images to enlarge

In the "vermicelli" that fills in the Earth in these patches, letters can be discerned that sometimes solve into acronyms: "4 SLS" (4th Space Launch Squadron),  NRO or NROL, and other letter combinations that are less easy to interpret.

Speaking of logo's and patches: I recently re-designed the logo of SatTrackCam. The new design is based on the older design but less cluttered:

click image to enlarge

Like in NRO patches, there is some coded information in this design: the Coat of Arms for example has a double meaning. The (pig-) Latin actually refers to a notorious NRO patch, as well as a famous internet meme.