NROL-111 and TacRL-2: two upcoming classified launches [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

 

Two classified launches are slated for the second week of June. One is the launch of TacRL-2, on 13 June at 8:11 UT. The other is NROL-111 on June 15 between 10:00 and 15:30 UT [edit: a potential launch time of 11:00 UT has now been announced]. Both are launched by Northrop Grumman, on behalf of respectively the Space Force and the NRO.

 

TacRL-2

TacRL-2 is described as a "Space Domain Awareness" technology demonstration satellite that is part of the "Tactically Responsive Launch Program" (hence "TacRL") of the US Space Force. The satellite was reportedly developed in less than a year time.

It will be an airborne launch, on one of two remaining Northrop Grumman Pegasus-XL rockets carried by a Lockheed L1011 Tristar aircraft. The launch will be over the Pacific, near California.

The Navigational Warnings issued point to launch into a polar Low Earth Orbit with orbital inclination near 96 to 98 degrees. Below are the Navigational Warnings, which I have also mapped in the map above:

090844Z JUN 21
NAVAREA XII 257/21(18,83).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. 
CALIFORNIA. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0739Z TO 0855Z DAILY 
   13 AND 14 JUN IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 35-19N 123-44W, 35-13N 122-58W, 
      31-11N 124-05W, 31-16N 124-30W.
   B. 29-34N 125-03W, 29-28N 124-29W, 
      27-32N 124-53W, 27-38N 125-26W.
   C. 20-19N 127-23W, 20-02N 125-41W, 
      15-26N 126-30W, 15-43N 128-11W.
   D. 01-20N 131-46W, 00-35N 127-20W, 
      01-52S 127-44W, 01-06S 132-11W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140955Z JUN 21.

080051Z JUN 21
HYDROPAC 1691/21(83).
EASTERN PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 130809Z TO
   130840Z JUN AND 140809Z TO 140840Z JUN
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   01-20N 131-46W, 00-35N 127-20W,
   01-52S 127-44W, 01-06S 132-11W,
   01-20N 131-46W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140940Z JUN 21.

In my initial assessment I suggested a 98-degree sun-synchronous orbit as a possibility [EDIT: and it turns out that I was right in that: the payload has been catalogued in a 97.48 degree inclined orbit, catalogue nr 48844]; but I have since revised that assessment based on sensible comments by Bob Christy. His ~96-degree inclined orbital suggestion indeed fits the hazard areas well. Yet, my initial suggestion of a sun-synchronous orbit cannot be totally discounted either [EDIT: see earlier remark: it in fact *is* in a sun-synchronous orbit near ~98 degree inclination, and I am therefore very happy that I included this statement...]. In the map in top of this post, I have plotted the 96-degree inclined option.

UPDATE (13 Jun 11:20 UT): TacRL-2 launched successfully. According to the Space Force, the satellite is named Odyssey.

UPDATE (13 Jun 21:00 UT): Odyssey/TacRL-2 has been catalogued by Space-Track under catalogue nr. 48844, in a 405 x 452 km, 97.48 degree inclined orbit. The orbit is, against expectations, not classified.

NROL-111

Two days after TacRL-2, Northrop Grumman will launch another mission, NROL-111, this time for the NRO. The launch will be on June 15,with a launch window between 10:00 and 15:30 UT. [EDIT: in a tweet, the NRO has now announced 11:00 UT as the launch time)

It concerns the launch of three unspecified small payloads on a Minotaur I rocket. The launch will be from Wallops Pad 0B (Press Kit here). The Navigational Warnings (see below) point to launch into a ~50-degree inclined Low Earth Orbit:

110950Z JUN 21
NAVAREA IV 488/21(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. 
VIRGINIA. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   151000Z TO 151530Z JUN, ALTERNATE 
   1000Z TO 1530Z DAILY 16 THRU 21 JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 37-57-27N 075-27-32W, 37-38-42N 074-52-00W,
      37-24-46N 075-06-02W, 37-41-36N 075-37-02W.
   B. 36-46-37N 074-55-59W, 37-18-40N 074-06-36W, 
      37-01-44N 073-19-30W, 36-27-47N 072-14-49W, 
      35-59-28N 072-14-38W, 35-30-18N 073-03-54W, 
      35-39-00N 074-02-06W.
   C. 30-10-19N 069-45-00W, 33-31-19N 067-19-52W, 
      30-57-14N 064-49-52W, 29-31-30N 067-11-42W. 
   D. 07-00-00N 048-09-43W, 10-19-01N 044-06-50W, 
      06-14-02N 038-38-13W, 01-44-13N 043-46-37W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 211630Z JUN 21.

 

I have plotted the Navigational Warnings in the map below (click to enlarge):

click map to enlarge

 

We can only speculate about the possible functions of the NROL-111 payloads, and the same is true for TacRL-2 ("Space Domain Awareness" broadly suggests the latter is keeping an eye on other satellites). Both missions appear to be experimental. With regard to NROL-111, I just note that orbital inclinations near 50 degrees lately have become very popular with the NRO for some reason.

USA 314 (NROL-82) imaged

 

click to enlarge

Last Monday 26 April at 20:47:00 UT, ULA launched a classified payload for the NRO under the launch designation NROL-82. The payload is now designated USA 314. I wrote about the launch and that it is almost certainly an ADVANCED ENHANCED CRYSTAL KH-11 electro-optical reconnaissance satellite in an earlier post.

The payload was picked up on the first orbit by radio observer Scott Tilley in Canada, and next, guided by the radio observations, Cees Bassa (who is just like me in the Netherlands) optically imaged it on the second and third orbit.

Thanks to information from the radio observations, #NROL82 was caught in video observations on its second pass. It passed close to Polaris in the top left of this image at 23:45:30UTC. pic.twitter.com/HB8bSFy84e

— Cees Bassa (@cgbassa) April 27, 2021

 

I tried to image it from Leiden on the second orbit as well, but as it turns out it passed outside my camera field during that pass.

The next night, and with a more firm search orbit based on the data from the previous night available, I did succesfully image it. The photograph in top of this post was made with a Canon EOS 80D camera and Samyang 1.4/85 mm lens (at F2.0, 1600 ISO, 1 second exposure). 

I also obtained video, using the WATEC 902H2 Supreme with a 1.8/50 mm lens:

The payload is designated USA 314 (catalogue nr 48247, COSPAR 2021-032A) and as usual CSpOC does not publish orbital data. But our observations show that it is in a 528 x 755 km, 98.1 degree inclined sun-synchonous orbit.

The orbital plane is even closer to that of USA 224 than anticipated: a difference of only 1.1 degree in RAAN and 0.2 degrees in orbital inclination. The orbital altitude is somewhat different and the orbital eccentricity is less than our initial guess. Perhaps it will manoeuvre over the coming days/weeks to the same altitudes as USA 224, perhaps it will not: we will see!

So in all, the NROL-82 payload's orbit is pretty much what was expected, apart from a slightly different initial orbital altitude.

USA 224 and the new payload USA 314 currently move almost in phase, and as a result they are relatively close, with continuous sight of each other. It is well possible that USA 224 is imaging the new payload as a post-launch health checkup.

The image below shows the coplanar character of the USA 224 and USA 314 orbits, and the spatial proximity in viewing distance of each other:

click to enlarge

As I pointed out in a previous post, based on historical patterns I expect that, after a checkout-phase that may take a couple of weeks, the new USA 314 will take over from USA 224 in the KH-11 primary East orbital plane. USA 224 will then likely be manoeuvered into a lower orbit (~400 km) and its orbital plane will be moved to the 'secondary' East plane, some 10-20 degrees east in RAAN of the current orbital plane.

NROL-108: another mystery launch perhaps similar to NROL-76 (USA 276)? [UPDATED]

UPDATE 17 December 2020 16:15 UT:

today's launch was scrubbed due to a pressure anomaly in the upper stage. A new launch attempt will be on December 18th 19th.

UPDATE 20 December 2020 12:20 UT:
NROL-108 launched succesfully on 19 december at 14:00 UT. A fuel dump was observed from New Zealand.

On 17 18 19 December 2020, SpaceX will launch a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). The launch, from Cape Canaveral platform 39A in Florida, is designated NROL-108. The Navigational Warnings window opens at 13:55 UT and closes at 17:52 UT, pointing to launch somewhere between ~14:00-17:45 UT [edit: the scrub on December 17 suggests a window starting at 14:45 UT and ending at 17:00 UT] . The first stage will attempt to do a RTLS (return-to-launch-site).

NROL-108 is very odd as it was a surprise addition to the launch schedule in early October 2020, seemingly coming out of nowhere. It was originally slated for launch on October 25, but was postponed to December. The character of the mission is a mystery: this looks to be something new again.

The following Navigational Warnings have appeared for the launch hazard areas and the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area:

 NAVAREA IV 1201/20
 WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
 FLORIDA.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
    171355Z TO 171752Z DEC, ALTERNATE
    181355Z TO 181752Z DEC
 IN AREAS BOUND BY:
 A. 28-39-43N 080-38-12W, 29-02-00N 080-15-00W,
    28-57-00N 080-08-00W, 28-40-00N 080-11-00W,
    28-27-00N 080-24-00W, 28-26-52N 080-32-07W.
 B. 30-12-00N 079-06-00W, 30-28-00N 078-56-00W,
    30-54-00N 078-52-00W, 31-14-00N 078-13-00W,
    31-06-00N 077-36-00W, 30-47-00N 077-22-00W,
    30-27-00N 077-26-00W, 30-08-00N 078-20-00W,
    30-03-00N 078-58-00W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181852Z DEC 20.//

 HYDROPAC 3673/20
 EASTERN PACIFIC.
 DNC 06, DNC 13.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
    171508Z TO 171841Z DEC, ALTERNATE
    181508Z TO 181841Z DEC
 IN AREA BOUND BY
    12-27S 135-24W, 11-03S 135-01W,
    04-31N 125-02W, 12-23N 118-23W,
    11-34N 117-22W, 01-11N 123-20W,
    11-32S 132-38W, 13-10S 134-27W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181941Z DEC 20.//

These hazard areas plotted on a map:

click map to enlarge

 

The time window for the upper stage deorbit and the fact that the first stage will attempt an RTLS point to a launch into Low Earth Orbit. The launch direction and the location of the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area point to a launch into an orbit with an orbital inclination near 52 degrees.

The location of the launch hazard areas is somewhat similar to the launch hazard area for the May 2017 mystery launch of USA 276 (NROL-76). In the map below, the two hazard areas for NROL-108 are in red, while the launch hazard area for NROL-76 (USA 276) from May 2017 is in blue:

click map to enlarge

USA 276/NROL-76 was a mystery NRO launch, like NROL-108 launched by SpaceX, in May 2017, that raised eyebrows because the payload made a series of very close flyby's of the International Space Station a month after launch (see my July 2017 article in The Space Review).

USA 276 went, as subsequent orbital observations of the payload by our amateur network showed, into a ~400 km altitude, 50-degree inclined orbit, so a 50-degree inclined orbit is perhaps also an option for NROL-108.

Such a 50-degrees inclined orbit does not match well with the position of the deorbit zone for the Falcon 9 upper stage. The latter will be deorbitted over the eastern Pacific near the end of the first revolution, the Navigational Warnings show. So for now, the 52-degree inclination (give or take a degree) looks a bit more likely. Still, I do not want to rule out a 50-degree inclined orbit altogether, as the Falcon 9 upper stage might end up in a somewhat different orbit than the payload

In May 2017, USA 276 was launched into an orbital plane very close to that of the ISS, which resulted in the close encounters a month later. 

The launch window for NROL-108 (~14:00-17:50 UT) rules out that NROL-108 will do something similar: the ISS orbital plane does not pass over or near the launch site during this time window. 

It is possible however that NROL-108 aims for an orbital plane near that of USA 276. The orbital plane of USA 276, which due to orbital precession over the past 3 years no longer is close to that of the ISS, passes over Cape Canaveral Launch Pad 39A near 17:02 UT, inside the NROL-108 launch window. This opens up the possibility that NROL-108 is perhaps a close approach target for USA 276, or USA 276 is a close approach target for NROL-108 (but that is pure and wild speculation: Caveat Emptor). [UPDATE: see the update at end of this post. It did not target the USA 276 orbital plane]

It will be interesting to see in which orbit NROL-108 will end up. As I have remarked with some launches earlier  this year, the latest NRO launches all seem to be  'new' kinds of payloads that are likely experimental/Mission demonstrators, and which go into 'new' kinds of orbits: lately we have frequently seen orbital inclinations near 50-degrees and odd orbital altitudes (either very low or very high). NROL-108 will certainly go into a Low Earth Orbit, and it will be interesting to see what the exact launch time will be, whether it will go into a 400 km orbit similar to the orbital altitude of USA 276, and what the eventual orbital inclination will be.

UPDATE 20 December 2020:

NROL-108 launched succesfully at 14:00 UT on December 19th. Slightly over an hour after launch, near 15:15 UT, a fuel dump (following a deorbit burn) from the Falcon 9 upper stage was observed from New Zealand. The facebook-post here shows the classic spiral shape of such a fuel dump. The Youtube video below shot from Pukehina Beach by Astrofarmer shows less detail but includes time details:

 

 

Assuming the included times in the video are correct, this allows me to make a new estimate of the orbital altitude in which the satellite was inserted, which is probably ~600 km rather than the ~400 km of my initial estimate, looking at the time the rocket stage passed south of New Zealand:

NROL-108
1 70000U 20999A   20354.58333333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    04
2 70000 051.9000 194.4979 0003581 047.9699 326.1978 14.88539141    08

The orbital inclination of the satellite is still a bit uncertain but likely ~52 degrees.

The launch time (14:00 UT) excludes that the orbital plane of USA 276 was targetted (the orbital plane of the latter passed over the launch site two hours after launch).

 

UPDATE 2 (20 Dec 2020):

Radio observers have now catalogued the payload in a 519 x 539 km, 51.35 degree inclined orbit.

Tracking objects in MEO from the NROL-101 (USA 310) launch [updated]

 

NROL-101 payload USA 310. Click image to enlarge

On 13 November 2020 at 22:32 UT, the United Launch Alliance (ULA) launched NROL-101 for the National Recconnaissance Office (NRO) from SLC-41 at Cape Canaveral. CSpOC catalogued the payload as USA 310 under #46918 (2020-083A) and also catalogued the Centaur r/b as #46919 (2020-083B). The payload is classified and orbital elements for both the payload and Centaur were withheld, as is usual for NRO launches.

I wrote about this mission in an earlier post. Initially, we thought that this satellite was perhaps a new SDS and would be launched into HEO (a 63-degree inclined 'Molniya orbit'). Subsequent observations of a fuel vent by the Centaur upper stage seen from the western USA four hours after launch did not seem to fit this, and made us speculate whether the payload perhaps was something new and went into a 58 degree inclined MEO (see the discussion at the bottom of this previous post).

The latter speculation turns out to be correct. On November 18, I imaged an object in a 58.5 degree inclined, 11034 x 11067 km Medium Earth Orbit (MEO). It was steady in brightness. The image in top of this post shows the object in a 6-second exposure with a Canon EOS 80D with Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens. 

Observing conditions on this night were very dynamic: at one moment it could be completely clear, then two minutes later completely overcast, and five minutes later completely clear again.

Two night later, on November 20, I imaged a second related object, in a slightly lower 58.8 degree inclined 10510 x 11043 km Medium Earth Orbit.  Below is one of my images:

NROL-101 Centaur RB. Click image to enlarge

This object is slightly variable in brightness, indicating a slow tumble and during it's peaks it is brighter than the first object. The brightness variation has a peak-to-peak period of 140 seconds. Below, the brightness variation can be seen in a 19-image stack:

click to enlarge

A diagram of the measured pixel brightness of the trails in a series of images, shows the mentioned periodicity, and also shows thge presence of a more specular peak at the tops of the curve:

(click diagrams to enlarge)

(note added 24Nov: an update to this curve from video observations, yielding a 138.02 second peak-to-peak period, is here).

For the moment, we interpret the first, steady object in the 58.5 degree inclined orbit as the payload (USA 310), and the second variable object in the 58.8 degree inclined orbit as the Centaur upper stage.

Here is a TLE for the payload, based on a 3.2-day observing arc:

1 46918U 20083A   20326.25970612 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    08
2 46918  58.5335 293.1790 0007646 263.2891  96.6658  3.77323127    09

RMS 0.01     arc Nov 18.17 UT - Nov 21.37 UT

The orbit repeats in a 3-4-3 days pattern.

 

Here is a very preliminary TLE for the Centaur RB, based on a short 43-minute observing arc, hence the values for the eccentricity and Mean Motion still are privisional values:

1 46919U 20083B   20325.05807551 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    07
2 46919  58.8264 292.5498 0070000 327.1858  32.4248  4.01148244    05

 

[update] Here is an updated elset for the Centaur RB based on a 3-day observational arc:

NROL-101 Centaur
1 46919U 20083B   20327.90329491 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    05
2 46919  58.8253 291.9447 0155268 103.5440 258.2387  3.86388179    00

RMS 0.02            arc Nov 0.14 UT - Nov 23.00  UT

 

The preliminary orbits match well with the fuel vent in Northern Saggitarius observed from Joshua Tree, California and Taos, New Mexico, on 14 Nov ~2:30 UT (18:30 local time in Joshus Tree). The positions match to within a few degrees:

click to enlarge [updated figure]

The orbit of USA 310 is decidedly odd. There have never been classified launches in such an orbit before. One commercial object was launched in a somewhat similar orbit (the orbital inclination is lower), the first (and only) of an ill-fated commercial communications network in MEO: ICO F2 (2001-026A) launched in 2001.

 

Click to enlarge [updated image]

 

Because this type of orbit is new for an NRO payload, it is probably something experimental, i.e. a technology demonstrator. We can only guess as to the function, although future orbital behaviour might shed some light. Options include: 

 

- Communications; 

- SIGINT; 

- SAR imaging; 

- Low resolution, wide area optical IMINT; 

- Space-Based tracking.

 

In seems that the last few years the NRO and associated organisations are experimenting a lot with new, experimental spacecraft and new types of orbit. We have seen a number of launches into ~50-degree LEO orbits for example (e.g. USA 276, and the failed ZUMA launch). Now unusual MEO orbits are added, it seems. It will be interesting to see how this object will behave, and if other payloads will be launched into a similar orbit in the future.

I, for one, welcome these new oddities: when things become too predictable, it gets boring. So yay for the new and unusual! 

ADDED NOTE (24 Nov):

 

Now that  both the payload and the Centaur r/b have been observed over a reasonable arc and the orbits have improved, I can provide an estimate for the separation of the Centaur and payload: 14 Nov ~1:00 UT, near the southern apex of the orbits. This was followed by an avoidance burn and fuel dump by the Centaur, so there is some leeway in this.

click to enlarge

NROL-101: probably a HEO mission [or maybe not! See update at bottom]

click map to enlarge

EDIT 4 Nov 2020 22:30 UT: 

post UPDATED with new maps and new value for inclination parking orbit

EDIT 2, 22:50 UT (Nov 4): the launch has been SCRUBBED for at least 48 hours...

EDIT 3, 7 Nov 22: launch is now currently scheduled for 11 Nov, 22:22 UT 

EDIT 4, Nov 13:  NROL-101 cleared the tower at 22:32 UT (Nov 13)

If weather cooperates,ULA will launch NROL-101, a classified payload for the NRO, on November 11 (postponed from November 3 and 4). Based on Navigational Warnings, the launch window is from 22:00 UT (Nov 11) to 02:45UT (Nov 12), with ULA indicating a launch window start at 22:22 UT. 

[ EDIT: eventually, NROL-101 launched on 13 Nov 2020 at 22:32 UT ] 

The launch is from platform 41 on Cape Canaveral, using an Atlas V rocket in 531 configuration (5-m fairing, 3 strap-on boosters, 1 single engine Centaur upper stage). It would have originally flown in 551 configuration but this was changed. It is the first Atlas V flight to feature the new GEM 63 solid fuel strap-on boosters.

This Navigational Warning has appeared in connection to this launch (updated):

062038Z NOV 20
NAVAREA IV 1074/20(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   112200Z TO 120245Z NOV, ALTERNATE
   122200Z TO 130245Z AND 132200Z TO 140245Z
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-38-50N 080-37-34W, 29-58-00N 079-28-00W,
      29-54-00N 079-21-00W, 29-34-00N 079-36-00W,
      29-15-00N 079-45-00W, 28-36-00N 080-23-00W,
      28-30-57N 080-33-15W.
   B. 30-01-00N 079-33-00W, 31-08-00N 078-36-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-14-00W, 29-47-00N 079-11-00W.
   C. 36-38-00N 073-35-00W, 39-03-00N 071-00-00W,
      38-30-00N 070-13-00W, 36-05-00N 072-46-00W.
   D. 51-37-00N 049-45-00W, 53-32-00N 044-58-00W,
      52-54-00N 044-15-00W, 51-03-00N 049-07-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140345Z NOV 20.

The launch azimuth from the location of the hazard zones in this Navigational Warning and the initial launch azimuth depicted in a map tweeted by ULA point to an initial lauch into a [value updated] ~56-degree ~57.75 degree inclined orbit:

 

click map to enlarge

However: this is likely only a temporary parking orbit. The 531 rocket configuration has never been used for a launch into LEO so far, but always for launch into GEO. Given the launch azimuth, NROL-101 will certainly not be launched into GEO. 

So either the payload is destined for LEO but unusually heavy or (more likely) the final orbit aimed for is a HEO orbit (also known as a  Molniya orbit) with inclination ~63 degrees, perigee at ~2000 km over the southern hemisphere and apogee near 37 8000 km over the Arctic. [But: see major update at bottom! It might have been MEO rather than HEO, but this remains uncertain!]

A 63-degree inclined Molniya orbit cannot be reached directly from the Cape, because of overflight restrictions. Hence the initial launch azimuth corresponding to a ~58-degree inclined orbit. If NROL-101 goes into a Molniya orbit, it will do a dog-leg some time after launch, or (more likely) coast in a ~58-degree inclined parking orbit for perhaps several hours before being boosted into a Molniya orbit by the Centaur.

This appears to be underlined by the fact that to date (Sunday Nov 1) no Navigational Warnings have been issued for the reentry area of the Centaur upper stage. This could indicate that the upper stage will be left orbiting in a ~2000 x 37 8000 km transfer orbit, or is disposed into a Heliocentric orbit.

The NRO so far launched three kinds of  satellites into HEO orbits:

1) Data communication satellites (SDS);

2) SIGINT satellites (Trumpet FO);

3) combined SIGINT (Trumpet FO) and SBIRS Early warning satellites.

The last SIGINT/SBIRS combination launched into HEO was USA 278, launched in 2017. The last SDS launch into HEO was USA 198 in 2007 (there was also a launch in 2017 but this was into GEO, not HEO). As Ted Molczan pointed out in  a private com, SIGINT launches into HEO usually were done from Vandenberg, SDS launches from Cape Canaveral. So perhaps NROL-101 will carry a new SDS satellite, but this is far from certain. Radio observations after launch might shed some light on both orbit and payload character.

The initial trajectory will take it over NW Europe some 23 minutes after launch, but in Earth shadow, so the pass will not be visible:

click map to enlarge

 

UPDATE 15 Nov 2020 15:20 UT

Around 2:30 UT on Nov 14, four hours after launch, sightings of a fuel venting event were observed from the western USA.

This image tweeted by  Marc Leatham shows the V-shaped cloud in Saggitarius, imaged from Joshua Tree National Park:

🔎**EXPAND**🔍 Early in the evening last night in Joshua Tree, California, I was taking some test shots of the Milkyway. While editing, something popped out at me. If I'm not mistaken, that diffuse V shape must be #NROL101 launched from Florida! @torybruno, Am I right?!? 🔭☄️✨ pic.twitter.com/j2tNAICqji

— Marc Leatham (@quarkmarc) November 14, 2020

There is also allsky imagery of the fuel cloud from Taos, New Mexico (look low at the horizon where the milky way touches the horizon(right side), for a 'moving' piece of Milky Way. This is the fuel cloud):

These sightings lead us to believe that the payload perhaps went into the lower part of MEO, not HEO. This is however (emphasis) not certain at this moment.

The launch sequence then could have been insertion into a LEO parking orbit; an apogee raising burn; a perigee raising/circularization burn bringing it into HEO; and fuel vent/orbit separation burn by the Centaur rocket. That latter event caused the observed fuel cloud, at about 8500 km altitude.

ULA reported 'mission successful' around 1:48 UT. For the launch provider, their mission is completed upon payload separation. 1.48 UT corresponds to a pass through the southern apex of the orbit, suggesting payload separation was at that point. This, in combinbation with the observed Centaur vent, would argue against insertion into HEO but does fit insertion into MEO.

If my guess is correct, then this should be the approximate orbit (orbital position is the approximate position for the time of the Joshus Tree fuel cloud sighting):

click to enlarge

 

Both the Centaur and payload have been catalogued (but without orbital elements) by CSpOC, as #46918 (2020-083A) USA 310 and #46919 (2020-083B) Atlas V Centaur R/B.

If USA 310 indeed went into HEO, then the identity/character of the payload remains a big guess.

Added note, 4 Nov 2020, 21:30 UT: the maps and inclination of the initial parking orbit have been updated based on a map showing the initial trajectory up to fairing jettison tweeted by ULA boss Tory Bruno.

This post benefitted from discussions with Cees Bassa, Scott Tilley, Ted Molczan and Bob Christy.

What is NROL-47 and in what orbit will it be launched? [updated twice]

UPDATE 10 Jan 17:25 UT: The launch has been scrubbed due to high altitude winds, and moved one day to Jan 11. New start of launch window is given as 1 pm PST = 20:00 21:00 UT. This means the launch window is shifting, indicating a prefered orbital plane and launch probably right at the start of the launch window.

Update 12 Jan: The launch was again scrubbed yesterday, and is now slated for January 12, 21:00 UT . My remark about a  shifting launch window above was in error, I missed that the Maritime Broadcast Warning window opens somewhat before the actual launch window opens.

Final Update , 12 Jan: NROL-47 successfully lifted off from Vandenberg SLC-6  at 22:11 UT!

Final Update 14 Jan 2018: Amateur observers using radio have located NROL-47 in orbit. It is transmitting in the TOPAZ frequency, 2241.52 MHz. The orbit is still very preliminary but appears to point to ~1100 km orbital altitude and an orbital inclination of ~105-106 degrees. This would identify NROL-47 as a new TOPAZ, but in an orbital plane that differs from the previous four TOPAZ satellites. Due to bad weather at the observing sites of several of our active observers (I was clouded out yesterday evening myself for example), optical observations have not yet been reported.

Hot after the excitement and drama of the Zuma launch (see my previous post), a new classified launch is upcoming on Wednesday January 10, when ULA will launch NROL-47, a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), on a Delta IV from Vandenberg SLC-6 in California.

From Maritime Broadcast Warnings, the launch window opens at 20:30 UT and closes at 01:26 UT. [edit 1] After a one-day delay due to weather conditions, the launch is now slated to be on the 11th of January with the launch window opening 21:00 UT. The shifting launch window time indicates a launch into a preferred orbital plane, and it is likely that launch will be right at the opening of the launch window. [end of edit 1] [edit 2] This launch was scrubbed as well, and launch is now slated for 12 January 21:00 UT [end of edit 2]

The launch is in Westward direction, into retrograde orbit. This has led some space news websites to assume that the NROL-47 payload is the 5th TOPAZ (FIA Radar) satellite.

But is it? I have some doubts.

If it is TOPAZ 5, then it is clearly a deviation from the previous four launches. The launch hazard zones from published Maritime Broadcast Warnings show that the launch azimuth is different - previous TOPAZ missions all launched into azimuth 220 degrees, but NROL-47 launches into azimuth 200 degrees, a 20 degree difference.

NROL-47 Launch hazard areas (red) compared to the areas of four TOPAZ (FIA Radar) launches
click map to enlarge

This can be clearly seen on the map above, where the NROL-47 hazard zones are in red, and the hazard zones from the four TOPAZ in purple, green, light blue and dark blue. The azimuth and locations of the zones from the four TOPAZ launches are all quite similar, but those of NROL-47 stand out as different.

All the four TOPAZ satellites are in a 123.0 degree inclined retrograde orbit. The NROL-47 launch azimuth results in a retrograde orbit too, but with an orbital inclination of 108.6 degrees, not 123.0 degrees: a 14.4 degree difference.

The orbital altitude aimed for appears to be different too. The four TOPAZ satellites are in 1100 x 1110 km orbits. But the location of the Delta IV Upper Stage de-orbit zone (between South Africa and Antarctica), its shape and the opening time of the window (23:23 UT) points to the NROL-47 payload going into a 1500 km altitude orbit instead.[edit: from the first post-launch radio observations (see update in top of this post), the payload actually appears to be in a ~1100 km orbit, similar to previous TOPAZ: but indeed in a different orbital plane than the previous TOPAZ - end of edit]

estimated trajectory of NROL-47
click map to enlarge

So if this is the 5th TOPAZ launching as NROL-47 on Wednesday, then it is going into a quite different orbit compared to the previous four TOPAZ: different in orbital inclination as well as in orbital altitude.

In theory, the Delta IV rocket could do a "dogleg" and (when launching at 20:30 UT) deliver the NROL-47 payload into the 123.0 degree inclined orbit close to the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1 (FIA Radar 1). A second manoeuvre near the south polar pass could then align the RAAN and bring it exactly into the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1.

But why do that, if previous TOPAZ launches simply launched directly into the 123.0 degree inclination orbit?

So in my view, the jury is still out regarding the identity of NROL-47. It could be a 5th TOPAZ but in a quite different orbit compared to the previous four (in itself possible: the Lacrosses also occupied two different orbital inclinations). It could also be something new. If something new, it likely will be a radar satellite (like TOPAZ), given the retrograde character of the orbit. [edit - from radio observations, it appears to be a TOPAZ, but in a different orbital p;lane than the earlier TOPAZ -end of edit]

orbital constellation of TOPAZ 1, 2, 3 and 4 in 123.0 degree inclined orbits
The orbits are spaced 90 degrees in RAAN
click image to enlarge

The deliberate re-entry of the Upper Stage happens 1.5 revolutions (2h 55m) after launch.

Estimated search orbits, based on a 108.6 degree orbital inclination, are here. New elset estimates for the new launch date and time are here. South Africa will have two visible passes after launch.

An UPDATE on this post, with post-launch imagery of the payload in orbit, is here.

[UPDATED] Close Encounters of the Classified Kind: a post-event analysis of the close approach of USA 276 to the ISS on June 3

3 July 2017: A paper which is a further evolved version of this blog post has appeared in The Space Review. I advise you to read that paper

(UPDATED 7 Jun 2017 15:50 UT with two new figures showing circular motion of USA 276 around the ISS)

Something odd happened a few days ago, high above our heads. In an earlier blogpost, I discussed in detail how the odd spy satellite USA 276 (2017-022A) was set to make a peculiarly close approach to the International Space Station ISS on 3 June 2017. The spy satellite was recently launched for the NRO as NROL-76 by SpaceX, on 1 May 2017.

With the close approach moment now in history and post-approach observations of USA 276 available (as well as an orbit for ISS based on tracking data, rather than an orbital prognosis), I present my final analysis of the situation in the current post.

With the new data included, we can establish the moment of closest approach as 3 June 2017, 14:01:52 UT. It happened over the southern Atlantic north of the Falklands, near 43^o.75 S, 45^o.45 W, with a miss distance of only 6.4 ± 2 km (the  ± 2 km stems from the fact that TLE predicted positions have a typical positional accuracy of no more than 1 km at epoch).

The latter is significantly closer than the approach distances calculated before the approach (which were in the order of 17-20 km, see my earlier post). Ted Molczan also analyzed the situation and he finds an even closer nominal distance of 4.5 km (but within uncertainty intervals our results overlap).

For the ISS, I used elset  17154.48611204. For USA 276, I used the elset below which I calculated based on amateur observations including my own:


USA 276
1 42689U 17022A   17155.88026473 0.00004763  00000-0  65979-4 0    01
2 42689  50.0047 103.5284 0014136 110.9138 249.3345 15.56256291    00

rms     0.020                             arc May 31.92 - Jun 4.90 UT

For detailed purposes like this, the orbit determination is a bit sensitive to what observer data are included. I restricted myself to observers with known high accuracy in the orbital solution above.

click image to enlarge

click image to enlarge

Below is an updated animation of the situation:




A table of all close approach moments with distances smaller than 500 km:

DATE       UT         km 
3 JUN 2017 02:28:52   478.5 
3 JUN 2017 03:13:37   464.4 
3 JUN 2017 04:01:17   413.2 
3 JUN 2017 04:46:14   398.9 
3 JUN 2017 05:33:41   347.8 
3 JUN 2017 06:18:50   333.3 
3 JUN 2017 07:06:04   282.4 
3 JUN 2017 07:51:26   267.7 
3 JUN 2017 08:38:28   217.1 
3 JUN 2017 09:24:03   202.2 
3 JUN 2017 10:10:52   151.9 
3 JUN 2017 10:56:39   136.6 
3 JUN 2017 11:43:15    87.1 
3 JUN 2017 12:29:16    71.0
3 JUN 2017 13:15:38    26.3 
3 JUN 2017 14:01:52     6.4  **
3 JUN 2017 14:48:01    48.8 
3 JUN 2017 15:34:28    60.5 
3 JUN 2017 16:20:24   112.5 
3 JUN 2017 17:07:05   126.1 
3 JUN 2017 17:52:46   177.5 
3 JUN 2017 18:39:41   191.7 
3 JUN 2017 19:25:09   242.9 
3 JUN 2017 20:12:18   257.4 
3 JUN 2017 20:57:31   308.3 
3 JUN 2017 21:44:54   323.1 
3 JUN 2017 22:29:53   373.7 
3 JUN 2017 23:17:30   388.8 
4 JUN 2017 00:02:15   439.2 
4 JUN 2017 00:50:07   454.5

Note: as positions from TLE's have an intrinsic uncertainty (about 1 km at epoch time), the values in the table above have an uncertainty of about 2 kilometer.

The distance variation around close approach in diagram form:

click diagram to enlarge

click diagram to enlarge

The variation in orbital altitude of both objects around the time of close approach (actual geoid heights):

click diagram to enlarge

As can be seen, USA 276 was a few km (nominally 3.65 km) above the ISS at closest approach. It was nominally also a little bit over 5 km behind the ISS.

In the following diagram, nominal distances in km in X, Y and Z of USA 276 are measured with respect to the ISS. The X is in the direction of movement of the ISS, Y is perpendicular (lateral) to it, Z is the zenith-nadir direction:

click diagram to enlarge

[UPDATE 7 Jun 2017, 15:45 UT, revised 21:14 UT] The variation in position of USA 276 with respect to the ISS was such that it effectively circled the ISS at close approaches, both laterally (cross-track) as wel as along-track, as can be seen in these diagrams below. Please note that, to get a more clear diagram, the axes of the first diagram (crosstrack circling) are not to scale. The second diagram is the same figure, but with axes to scale. The third diagram (along track circling) is also to scale:

click diagram to enlarge

click diagram to enlarge

click diagram to enlarge

A collision avoidance manoeuvre is usually evaluated if an object comes within a box of 4 x 4 x 10 km of the ISS.

If upon further evaluation the chance of collision is larger than 1:10000, an avoidance manoeuvre is done, if circumstances allow this.

USA 276 remained just outside the 4 x 4 x 10 km box at closest approach, as can be seen in the illustration below (red box, the situation shown is for the moment of closest approach). The box represents a collision risk in the order of 1 in 100 000.

USA 276 relative to the ISS proximity safety box . Click image to enlarge  (image made with STK)

I remain agnostic on the question whether this close approach was intentional or not (see discussion in my previous post regarding some possible goals would the approach  have been intentional).

Ted Molczan published a discussion of pro and contra arguments on the question whether the approach was on purpose or not on the Seesat-L list on June 3. While Ted argues that the April 16 and April 30 postponements of the launch indicate a non-planar preference of the orbit (which argues against intention), this also means that this close approach could have been avoided by picking another launch moment.

While USA 276 remained just outside the safety concern box, it is weird to have your just launched classified payload pass so close (6.4 ± 2 km) to a high profile, crewed object like the ISS.

I can and do not believe for a moment that the NRO was not aware that the launch on May 1 would lead to the close ISS approach a month later. It would be extremely sloppy of them, from a Space Situational Awareness viewpoint, if they were not aware, especially given how close the orbital parameters are to that of the ISS.

So I am struggling to understand why the NRO allowed this close approach to happen, if it was not intentional. This event was bound to attract attention and that harms the classified character of the mission. USA 276 is relatively brigh and the approach was bound to be noted by independent observers. Indeed, some space enthusiasts in Europe unaware of the issue who were out to spot DRAGON CRS-11 and Cygnus OA-7 close to the ISS on June 4, did accidentally spot USA 276 passing some 3 minutes in front of it.

It is also an extremely sloppy thing to do because this close an approach to a high profile object like ISS is politically risky. As the ISS is an international cooperation which includes two parties (the United States and the Russian Federation) that are currently geopolitically on an uneasy footing, sending your military payload so close to the ISS as one party is eyebrow raising.

This, and the timing (the close coincidence with the Dragon CRS-11 arrival at the ISS [edit: this refers to the originally planned date of arrival at June 4, later postponed by one day]) was bound to generate questions and suspicions (as it did). What the NRO did with USA 276 in the last few days was therefore really weird.

But then, the current administration of the USA is doing very weird things, and perhaps someone in the new administration signed off on this without fully understanding the depths of it. The Trump administration after all is not quite the posterchild for competence.

(the video below shows a USA 276 pass I filmed in evening twilight of June 4, at low elevation)

The Plot Thickens (Ball Aerospace, USA 276, RAVEN and the ISS)

(I acknowledge that what I write below is, again, matter of a highly speculative nature, and should be treated as such)

In a previous post, which is currently gaining media traction (e.g. here for a serious article on CNet, and here for a raunchy UK tabloid version, which is also NSFW by the way), I wrote in detail about the curious situation with the recently launched US spy satellite USA 276 (launched as NROL-76 on May 1). It appears to be moving towards a series of surreptitious very close approaches with the International Space Station (ISS). For more details see my post here.

While browsing the website of Ball Aerospace, the company that built USA 276, I found that they also have built RAVEN, an instrument delivered to and installed on the outside of the ISS in February this year.

RAVEN. Image: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Chris Gunn

As Ball Aerospace writes about RAVEN on their website:

"RAVEN is a technology demonstration mission that aims to advance the state-of-the art in rendezvous, proximity operations and docking. Raven includes visible cameras, an infrared camera and a flash LIDAR, called the Vision Navigation Sensor (VNS). In building and designing the VNS, Ball has provided Raven with its “eyes,” which will watch vehicles approach and depart the ISS."

So, let that sink in: Ball Aerospace, the company that built USA 276, a spacecraft that appears to be secretly moving towards a  series of clandestine very close approaches to the ISS, also built RAVEN, an experiment installed on the ISS to monitor close approaching spacecraft. 

NROL-76 is said to have been part of a "delivery to orbit" contract: e.g. the spacecraft and its launch is the responsibility of the builder (Ball Aerospace, who hired SpaceX for the launch), who hands over the spacecraft to the customer (the NRO) once in operational orbit. The question now is, is USA 276 at this stage still operated by Ball Aerospace, or has it been handed over to the NRO already?

(even if it isn't, I cannot believe that the NRO would have been kept in the dark about these ISS approaches. It would, however, create 'plausible deniability').

RAVEN was built by Ball Aerospace for NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. It is a possibility that it was jointly funded by NASA and the NRO (but that is pure speculation). Still, to use the ISS in this way is quite brazen, to say the least.

Note that while NASA participates in the ISS, the ISS is not owned by NASA: it is an international partnership that besides NASA includes ESA (Europe), JAXA (Japan), Roscosmos (Russia) and Canada, who would probably reject the idea of the ISS being made part of a classified US military experiment (certainly the Russians would).

Of course, this is all, and I emphasize this, pure speculation. But it is curious, to say the least, how Ball Aerospace and close approach monitoring come together here, from multiple angles (pun not intended). The plot thickens....

UPDATE, 3 June 13:15 UT:

A good summary of the pro's and con's on whether the ISS-USA 276 conjunction is coincidence or not, and whether there is a connection to RAVEN , by Ted Molczan is on the SeeSat-L list.

What is NROL-76 and what orbit wil it be launched into?

Tomorrow, 30 April 2017, with (from the area warnings) a three-hour launch window starting at 10:55 UT, SpaceX will launch a classified satellite for the NRO. The launch is designated NROL-76 and will happen from launchpad 39A at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The press-kit is here.

There has been some speculation on what this launch might be and what orbit it will go into.

Considering the latter, Ted Molczan discussed three options in two separate SeeSat-L posts (here and here): a launch into HEO (Molniya) orbit of a new SDS satellite; a launch into GEO of a new NEMESIS; or a launch into LEO, perhaps a new version of the ill-fated USA 193 launch from 2006.

The launch azimuth deduced from the Area Warnings that appeared after Ted posted his initial speculation on the payload, narrowed the options down to two: HEO or LEO. To me, the Area Warnings strongly suggest the second option: a launch into LEO, perhaps a USA 193 follow-up.

The Maritime Area Warnings published for the launch show two hazard zones: one near Cape Canaveral, and one, with a window opening four-and-a-half hours later than the launch window, in the Indian Ocean stretching from south of Madagascar to north of Kerguelen:

NAVAREA IV 342/17 [1 of 1][[WWNWSFOLDER]]

WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 301055Z TO 301354Z APR,
ALTERNATE 011055Z TO 011354Z MAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
28-39N 080-39W, 30-34N 078-45W,
31-32N 077-34W, 31-26N 077-13W,
31-06N 077-11W, 30-47N 077-32W,
30-08N 078-26W, 28-29N 080-21W,
28-26N 080-27W, 28-25N 080-35W,
28-25N 080-38W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011454Z MAY 17.//

Authority: EASTERN RANGE 211830Z APR 17.

Date: 271553Z APR 17
Cancel: 01145400 May 17


HYDROPAC 1447/17 [1 of 1][[WWNWSFOLDER]]

SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN.
DNC 02, DNC 03.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 301438Z TO 301715Z APR,
ALTERNATE 011438Z TO 011715Z MAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
30-31S 038-04E, 30-40S 040-19E,
40-11S 060-06E, 47-31S 080-01E,
48-56S 079-46E, 49-00S 075-21E,
47-12S 063-50E, 41-51S 049-33E,
35-39S 040-15E, 32-07S 037-37E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011815Z MAY 17.//

Authority: EASTERN RANGE 211827Z APR 17.

Date: 250231Z APR 17
Cancel: 01181500 May 17

I have put them in maps for your convenience:

click map to enlarge

The first area points to a launch azimuth of 43-45 degrees, indicating (if no dog-leg is involved) launch into an orbital inclination of 50-51 degrees as can be seen in the first map I prepared, above. This would at first sight exclude launch into HEO/Molniya orbit at inclination 63.4 degrees, unless of course a dog-leg manoeuvre is involved, which is possible.

click map to enlarge

The second area, in the Indian Ocean, points to the de-orbit of the upper stage about 4.5 hours after launch and actually matches a launch into an ~51 degree inclined LEO orbit as well.

In the map below, I have printed an estimated Low Earth orbit for the upper stage of the launch, based on the 2006 USA 193 orbit in terms of apogee and perigee, but with the orbital inclination changed to 51 degrees. About 2.4 orbits after launch, near 14:38 UT when the hazard warning window opens, the stage would be over Africa on its way to the hazard area, which has a position and curvature matching the trajectory (given the uncertainties in my orbit estimate) close enough, in my opinion, to accept this potential scenario of launch into an approximately 51 degree inclined, about 355 x 375 km orbit, or something similar to that:

click map to enlarge

One has to wonder though why the de-orbit is 2.5 revolutions after launch, and not simply during the second part of the first revolution. Perhaps some experiments will be done with the stage? Or does it deliver additional (small) payloads perhaps? Your guess is as good as mine.

In terms of the payload itself, Ted Molczan has posted some interesting info to SeeSat-L suggesting the payload is based on  Boeing's commercial, completely electrical thrust BSS-702SP bus.

The purpose of the payload(s?) is completely unclear at the moment. Radar satellites such as Lacrosse/ONYX were previously launched into 57-58 degree inclined orbits or their retrograde 123 degree equivalent (FIA/TOPAZ). Optical reconnaissance satellites such as KH-11 are launched in 97 degree inclined sun-synchronous orbits. NOSS (INTRUDER) SIGINT duo's are launched into 63.4 degree inclined stable perigee orbits. If this payload ends up in a 51 degree orbit, this is new.

There is a possibility that, while initially launched and inserted into a 51 degree orbit (a launch trajectory with which SpaceX is familiar from their CRS launches to the ISS), the payload next manoeuvres into a 58 degree or even 63.4 degree orbit on its own, using its electrical thrusters.

It will be interesting to see what orbit the object or objects eventually will be found in. It is likely it will be designated "USA 276".

If the 51-degree orbital inclination scenario is correct, observers in the Northern hemisphere will, unfortunately for me, not have visual sighting opportunities after launch: optical detection will rest on the shoulders of Southern hemisphere observers.

[added note 29 apr 15:15 UT] On April 30, be aware for possible re-entry sightings from Madagascar, especially the southern part of the island, near 14:40 UT, in early twilight (assuming launch at ~11:00 UT).

Eagle Eyes

Recently I posted a topic on USA 184, one of the SBIRS-HEO satellites. That post was illustrated with amongst others this patch:

click image to enlarge

A sharp eyed reader, graphic designer and illustrator Olivier Rossel (PXP), noted something odd in the patch. More exactly, in the bothom "beard" of feathers of the Eagle's head.

I had not noted it until Olivier pointed it out (and it is so obvious now!), but letters are spelled out there:

(image courtesy of Olivier Rossel)

You can read the words "GEO", "DSP" and "HEO". These are all relevant to the US Infrared Early Warning system. SBIRS has satellites in two kind of orbits: GEO (geosynchronous) and HEO (Highly Elliptical Orbit - see my earlier post). DSP is the Defense Support Program, the predecessor of the newer SBIRS, consisting of a number of satellites in GEO.

Some Russian guy, Ivan Karavay, identified the words earlier in a post in this forum (in Russian) but I had never seen it until Olivier pointed it out to me.This while I knew words are sometimes hidden in NRO-related patches. Take these patches for example, from the NRO launches NROL-25, NROL-34, NROL-41 and NROL-49:

click images to enlarge

In the "vermicelli" that fills in the Earth in these patches, letters can be discerned that sometimes solve into acronyms: "4 SLS" (4th Space Launch Squadron),  NRO or NROL, and other letter combinations that are less easy to interpret.

Speaking of logo's and patches: I recently re-designed the logo of SatTrackCam. The new design is based on the older design but less cluttered:

click image to enlarge

Like in NRO patches, there is some coded information in this design: the Coat of Arms for example has a double meaning. The (pig-) Latin actually refers to a notorious NRO patch, as well as a famous internet meme.