The upcoming launch of the X-37B Spaceplane mission OTV 8

X-37B mission OTV 6 after landing (Image: US Air Force)

Navigational Warnings have appeared for OTV 8, the 8th launch of the secretive X-37B spaceplane by the US Space Force (launch USSF-36). The launch, on a SpaceX Falcon 9, will be from Cape Canaveral launch pad 39A. The window of the Navigational Warning runs from 22 to 28 August 2025, with a time window of 08:30 - 10:30 UTC 03:40 - 08:03 UTC for August 22 (August 21 local date in Florida). There is something odd with these times by the way, on which more later.

Navigational Warnings NAVAREA IV 877/25 and HYDROPAC 2096/25 define two hazard zones. One is the immediate launch hazard zone on the Florida coast. The other is the deorbit area for the Falcon 9 upper stage, in the Eastern Pacific, near the end of the first revolution. 

While the direction of the first hazard zone on the Florida coast suggests a 42 degree inclined orbit, the location and direction of the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area is incompatible with this. Rather, it fits a 49.5 degree inclined orbit. The location and the time difference of the deorbit window start compared to that for the launch area, strongly point to launch into a Low Earth Orbit, with an orbital altitude likely near 350-400 km, just like the first six missions (remember that mission OTV 7 surprisingly was sent into a Highly Elliptical Orbit, see several previous posts, e.g. here).

I have plotted the two hazard zones and a launch trajectory for a 49.5 degree inclined, ~350 km altitude orbit in the map below. Numbers next to the trajectory refer to the flight time in minutes after launch:

 

Click map to enlarge

 

Below are the two Navigational Warnings:

142327Z AUG 25
NAVAREA IV 877/25(11).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   220340Z TO 220803Z AUG, ALTERNATE
   230400Z TO 230823Z, 240420Z TO 240843Z,
   250440Z TO 250728Z, 260500Z TO 260748Z,
   270345Z TO 270808Z AND 280540Z TO 280833Z AUG
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-40.25N 080-38.57W, 28-50.00N 080-22.00W,
   28-39.00N 080-11.00W, 28-27.24N 080-31.58W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 280933Z AUG 25.


141931Z AUG 25
HYDROPAC 2096/25(83).
PACIFIC OCEAN.
DNC 06, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   220500Z TO 220911Z, 230520Z TO 230931Z,
   240540Z TO 240951Z, 250600Z TO 250836Z,
   260620Z TO 260856Z, 270505Z TO 270916Z
   AND 280700Z TO 280941Z AUG 
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-55.00N 120-25.00W, 10-41.00N 121-25.00W,
   07-44.00S 135-45.00W, 08-30.00S 134-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281041Z AUG 25.

Note the shift in launch time with date: 03:40 - 08:03 UTC for the 22nd, 04:00 - 08:23 UTC for the 23rd, etcetera: a shift forward in time of 20 minutes per day. [edit: as noted by Ted Molczan, the times next suddenly shift to - nearly - the initial times again by August 27. I still cannot make sense of it]

The direction of this shift is odd. It is forward, to a later time each day: if a particular orbital plane is aimed for, it should however shift backwards, to an earlier time, each day. I wonder if this is a mistake and someone added corrections into the wrong direction...

The X-37B spaceplane (there are actually two of them) is the subject of a lot of conjecture and wild tales. My interpretation is that it is a technology testbed, not some space weapon such as the Russians and Chinese would have it. 

The rumoured "high manoeuverability" is often misunderstood: in flight, the X-37B does not change its orbital plane (see this earlier post from 2019). It does change orbital altitude frequently, and during the last mission (OTV 7) into HEO, it used Aerobraking (briefly dipping into the upper atmosphere during perigee) near the end of its mission to reduce orbital speed and altitude in preparation for landing. It manoeuvered almost daily during that mission. However, and I want to re-emphasize this as it is a common misunderstanding, it does not swirl and manoeuver like an X-wing Starfighter or Tie-fighter, changing orbital plane at will. In many ways, on-orbit it is just another satellite, moving in a fixed orbital plane (this is how we trackers find it back after an orbit raising or lowering manoeuver: we do a plane scan). The wings only function in the atmosphere, not in space.

According to this Space Force bulletin, mission OTV 8 will experiment with laser communications with "proliferated commercial satellite networks in Low Earth Orbit" (read: Starlink). It will also test a new navigation device, a "quantum inertial sensor" which works by "detecting rotation and acceleration of atoms without reliance on satellite networks like traditional GPS". This experimental technique is important to be able to continue navigating in space when GPS is being jammed/spoofed, and will become an important means of navigation in XGEO (CisLunar Space) in the future.

NROL-111 and TacRL-2: two upcoming classified launches [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

 

Two classified launches are slated for the second week of June. One is the launch of TacRL-2, on 13 June at 8:11 UT. The other is NROL-111 on June 15 between 10:00 and 15:30 UT [edit: a potential launch time of 11:00 UT has now been announced]. Both are launched by Northrop Grumman, on behalf of respectively the Space Force and the NRO.

 

TacRL-2

TacRL-2 is described as a "Space Domain Awareness" technology demonstration satellite that is part of the "Tactically Responsive Launch Program" (hence "TacRL") of the US Space Force. The satellite was reportedly developed in less than a year time.

It will be an airborne launch, on one of two remaining Northrop Grumman Pegasus-XL rockets carried by a Lockheed L1011 Tristar aircraft. The launch will be over the Pacific, near California.

The Navigational Warnings issued point to launch into a polar Low Earth Orbit with orbital inclination near 96 to 98 degrees. Below are the Navigational Warnings, which I have also mapped in the map above:

090844Z JUN 21
NAVAREA XII 257/21(18,83).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. 
CALIFORNIA. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0739Z TO 0855Z DAILY 
   13 AND 14 JUN IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 35-19N 123-44W, 35-13N 122-58W, 
      31-11N 124-05W, 31-16N 124-30W.
   B. 29-34N 125-03W, 29-28N 124-29W, 
      27-32N 124-53W, 27-38N 125-26W.
   C. 20-19N 127-23W, 20-02N 125-41W, 
      15-26N 126-30W, 15-43N 128-11W.
   D. 01-20N 131-46W, 00-35N 127-20W, 
      01-52S 127-44W, 01-06S 132-11W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140955Z JUN 21.

080051Z JUN 21
HYDROPAC 1691/21(83).
EASTERN PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 130809Z TO
   130840Z JUN AND 140809Z TO 140840Z JUN
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   01-20N 131-46W, 00-35N 127-20W,
   01-52S 127-44W, 01-06S 132-11W,
   01-20N 131-46W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140940Z JUN 21.

In my initial assessment I suggested a 98-degree sun-synchronous orbit as a possibility [EDIT: and it turns out that I was right in that: the payload has been catalogued in a 97.48 degree inclined orbit, catalogue nr 48844]; but I have since revised that assessment based on sensible comments by Bob Christy. His ~96-degree inclined orbital suggestion indeed fits the hazard areas well. Yet, my initial suggestion of a sun-synchronous orbit cannot be totally discounted either [EDIT: see earlier remark: it in fact *is* in a sun-synchronous orbit near ~98 degree inclination, and I am therefore very happy that I included this statement...]. In the map in top of this post, I have plotted the 96-degree inclined option.

UPDATE (13 Jun 11:20 UT): TacRL-2 launched successfully. According to the Space Force, the satellite is named Odyssey.

UPDATE (13 Jun 21:00 UT): Odyssey/TacRL-2 has been catalogued by Space-Track under catalogue nr. 48844, in a 405 x 452 km, 97.48 degree inclined orbit. The orbit is, against expectations, not classified.

NROL-111

Two days after TacRL-2, Northrop Grumman will launch another mission, NROL-111, this time for the NRO. The launch will be on June 15,with a launch window between 10:00 and 15:30 UT. [EDIT: in a tweet, the NRO has now announced 11:00 UT as the launch time)

It concerns the launch of three unspecified small payloads on a Minotaur I rocket. The launch will be from Wallops Pad 0B (Press Kit here). The Navigational Warnings (see below) point to launch into a ~50-degree inclined Low Earth Orbit:

110950Z JUN 21
NAVAREA IV 488/21(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. 
VIRGINIA. 
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   151000Z TO 151530Z JUN, ALTERNATE 
   1000Z TO 1530Z DAILY 16 THRU 21 JUN 
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 37-57-27N 075-27-32W, 37-38-42N 074-52-00W,
      37-24-46N 075-06-02W, 37-41-36N 075-37-02W.
   B. 36-46-37N 074-55-59W, 37-18-40N 074-06-36W, 
      37-01-44N 073-19-30W, 36-27-47N 072-14-49W, 
      35-59-28N 072-14-38W, 35-30-18N 073-03-54W, 
      35-39-00N 074-02-06W.
   C. 30-10-19N 069-45-00W, 33-31-19N 067-19-52W, 
      30-57-14N 064-49-52W, 29-31-30N 067-11-42W. 
   D. 07-00-00N 048-09-43W, 10-19-01N 044-06-50W, 
      06-14-02N 038-38-13W, 01-44-13N 043-46-37W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 211630Z JUN 21.

 

I have plotted the Navigational Warnings in the map below (click to enlarge):

click map to enlarge

 

We can only speculate about the possible functions of the NROL-111 payloads, and the same is true for TacRL-2 ("Space Domain Awareness" broadly suggests the latter is keeping an eye on other satellites). Both missions appear to be experimental. With regard to NROL-111, I just note that orbital inclinations near 50 degrees lately have become very popular with the NRO for some reason.