BRIK-II is no more

On 12 November 2025, the Netherlands' first military satellite, the 6U cubesat BRIK-II (2021-058F), reentered into the atmosphere after 4 years of service. I posted about the launch and the backgrounds of this experimental small satellite in 2021.

 

BRIK-II during construction. Photo: Dutch Ministry of Defense

 

At TU Delft, we have been running a reentry model for BRIK-II in the open source TU Delft Astrodynamics Toolkit (Tudat). While for many weeks the prognosis from our model pointed steadily to 14 or 15 November 2025, things changed in the last few days when a strong series of geomagnetic storms developed, due to a series of strong solar flares. This (along with suspected attitude loss, causing a higher - and variable-  drag area) speeded up the reentry, as can be seen by the dramatic shift in the evolution of the reentry prediction during the last few days before reentry in the diagrams below:

 

click diagrams to enlarge

Our last estimate, based on the last available orbit from 12 November ~6:04 UTC, is that the cubesat reentered around 15:47 ± 1.9 hours UTC on November 12, 2025. 

The quoted error margin might, in fact, be a bit optimistic in this case, due to the unusually rough circumstances around the time of the reentry (which included the arrival of a shockwave from a X5.1-class solar flare). A more safe guess is reentry between ~11:45 and 19:45 UTC. The last available orbit on which our final forecast is based, dates from about 10 hours before the nominal reentry time from our model.

The map below shows the nominal reentry position plus the trajectory over the one- and two-sigma uncertainty interval in the prediction: 

click map to enlarge

 

BRIK-II, named after the very first aircraft of the Royal Netherlands Air Force in 1912 ("Brik"), was a trailblazer for the Dutch Air and Space Force. It was an experimental satellite, meant to show that operating satellites was possible for the Dutch military, and was a way to gain the Dutch Air Force valuable experience with such operations. Three other, operational, satellites would follow in the next four years: the joint Dutch-Norwegian satellites Huygens and Birkeland, and a SAR satellite.

Brik-II (the name means, a.o., "brick") truely paved the way into Space for the Dutch Air and Space Force.

 

BRIK-II imaged on-orbit by me on 30 March 2023

(on a related note: I have started to post experimental reentry forecasts for selected objects here: https://reentry.langbroek.org)

[MULTIPLE UPDATES] Possible Space Debris found near Newman, Australia on Oct 18, might be Jielong 3 upper stage remains

click map to enlarge

On 18 October 2025 near 14:00 local time (= 18 October ~6:00 UTC), a strange object was found on or near a dirtroad in the outback of  the Pilbara region in Western Australia. The object, suspected to be space debris, was found some 30 km east of the small mining town of Newman, as reported by ABC.

The object (photo's in the ABC report) resembles a COPV (Composite-Overwrapped Pressure Vessel), a type of space debris that often survives reentry. It reportedly was burning when found (this seems to be visible in the first photograph in the ABC report), which is unusual and against expectations for space debris. Nevertheless, the character of the object and a good match of the find location to a reentry on 18 October does persuade me to conclude that this is space debris indeed.

A possible candidate for the origin of this apparent space debris is a Chinese Jielong 3 upper stage, catnr. 61237, COSPAR 2024-173L. This object reentered on October 18, although (again! See this recent reentry) no TIP was issued by CSpOC.

I identified the object (note: so independently did Ravi Jagtiani) by assuming the report it was burning, although odd, is true, indicating a very recent impact. Using the latest orbital catalogue I first checked which objects were in orbits below 250 km on October 17-18, i.e. close to reentry, and next I ran a SatEvo analysis on this set to further cull it down to objects that should have been near reentry around that time. Starlink satellites could be excluded given the character of the debris. This left only a handfull of candidates. Of these, only one was in an orbit that would match passing close to Newman in the early hours of October 18: the mentioned Chinese Jielong 3 stage in a 97.6 degree inclined polar orbit. Using a standard SGP4 propagation as a first check, the ground-track would pass some 20-30 km east of Newman around 4:40 UTC on October 18. The rocket stage approached from the north-northeast moving towards the south-southwest.

The last available orbit for 2024-173L is for epoch 25291.03873492 (18 Oct 00:55 UTC), a few hours before the Newman object was found. Using that orbit as a starting point and deploying the reentry model we recently created in the open source Delft University of Technology Astrodynamics Toolkit (Tudat), I tried whether I could get a reentry trajectory to end ~30 km east of Newman. 

Not much information is known about the Jielong 3 components in terms of size and mass: therefore, estimates for size and mass of the upper stage had to be used. I assumed a size of about 1.5 x 1.5 meter (cf Jonathan McDowell's catalogue) and then by trail-and-error varied the mass to get an impact point as close to 30 km due east of Newman as possible.

An impact point situated directly ~30 km east of Newman results when I use a mass of ~301 kg, which seems a reasonable value for a small solid fuel upper stage build from composite. The two maps below show the Tudat modelled reentry trajectory that results from a 2.5 m² drag surface and 301 kg mass, with impact just after 4:40 UTC on 18 October (see also update II at the bottom of this post):

 

click map to enlarge

 

click map to enlarge

The modelled impact time is 1 to1.5 hours before the object was reportedly found. 

So it looks like the Jielong 3 upper stage 2024-173L is a good candidate for the origin of the possible space debris object found near Newman on October 18. Rather than a COPV from the stage, it could actually be (a significant part of) the upper stage itself, given the large size that the photo's suggest (and also given that the Jielong 3 upper stage is reportedly a solid fuel stage).

As we have seen with a number of recent reentries, CSpOC alas did not provide a TIP for this object (TIP = "Time of Impact Prediction", the reentry prediction by the CSpOC reentry model). They did however release an administrative "decay message" for 2024-173L for October 18 just after the reentry, indicating that it did reenter that day.

 

UPDATE I, 21 Oct 2025 00:20 UTC:

An EU-SST reentry analysis for the Jielong 3 upper stage 2024-173L is in good agreement with my Tudat analysis.

 

UPDATE II, 21 Oct 2025 15:45 UTC:

Using Tudat, I tried to fit the orbital evolution (based on US tracking data) for 2024-173L from July 1, 2025 to October 15, 2025 to the Tudat model, playing with mass and drag area, to get at empirical values for mass and drag area. One of the solutions that fits well is a mass of 300 kg and drag area of 2.2 m² , which is close to the values I used to get it to reenter near Newman as described earlier in this blogpost. 

click diagram to enlarge

With a 300 kg mass and 2.2 m² drag area, the Tudat reentry model has it nominally surviving untill ~5:17 UTC ± 65 min, nominally reentering half an orbital revolution after passing Newman: but passing Newman actually is well within the uncertainty window of this reeentry prediction (the blue line on the map shows the trajectory over the uncertainty window):

 

click map to enlarge

In other words: this too suggests that the object found near Newman could be (a part of) the Jielong 3 upper stage 2024-173L.

 

UPDATE III, 31 Oct 2025: 

A lone TIP has suddenly been issued for 2024-173L by CSpOC today: 18 Oct 2025 4:38 ± 1m UTC near nominally 18.1 S 121.2 E.  

This conforms well to the space debris being found in Newman, as the time and location likely are based (given the ± 1 minute uncertainty) on a satellite observation of the fireball, i.e. on the location at an altitude of 80-100 km. I have plotted the position in the map below, that also depicts our Tudat reentry trajectory with associated times.

 

click map to enlarge

[UPDATED] Identifying a reentry over the Canary Islands on 16 October as the reentry of the Chinese satellite Xinjishu Yanzheng 7 (XJY-7)

click to enlarge

In the early local morning of 16 October 2025 around 1:56 UTC, a spectacular phenomena appeared in the sky over Tenerife in the Canary Islands. A bright, slow, fragmenting fireball moved from south to north over the sky. Sonic booms were heard and registered by several seismic stations on Tenerife. The event clearly was a reentry of artificial space debris. For footage, see here and here. The all-sky image on the left above is from the Izana Atmospheric Research Center on Tenerife (the plotted sky map on the right is by me, for comparison, see discussion below).

I was alerted to the event by my Spanish colleague Josep Trigo (ICE-CSIC/IEEC) in the morning of October 16, who asked if I could identify which object was reentering here. A check on the CSpOC portal Space-Track did not yield a TIP that would match - as it turns out, the object in question never received a TIP, which is odd as it was heavy and large, as we will see.

So in order to identify it, I had to do some additional research. I selected all orbits from the orbital catalogue with perigee below 200 km. Next, I used SatEvo software to see which of these orbits would have a predicted reentry on October 15-16. From the handfull of candidates left, I next checked which of them would be over the Canary Islands near the time of the event (1:56 - 1:57 UTC on 16 October 2025). One object stood out - and it was one for which no TIP had been issued: the Chinese satellite Xinjishu Yanzheng 7 (XJY-7, 2020-102C), launched in 2020.

All sky imagery showing the reentry trail in the sky against a starry background had meanwhile been published on Twitter by the Izana Atmospheric Research Center on Tenerife. The general location of the trail amidst the stars in the sky and the direction of movement matched those expected for XJY-7 well. It was clear we had found our culprit.

Not much is known about XJY-7. Jonathan McDowell lists bus dimensions of about 3 x 5 x 9 meter and a dry mass near 3000 kg for this object in his catalogue. ESA's DISCOS lists similar dimensions but a mass of 5000 kg (perhaps a wet mass).

The last available orbit for XJY-7 was for epoch 25288.77158679, or 15 October 18:31 UTC, some 7h 25m before the event. To investigate further, I used the reentry model that my colleague Dominic Dirkx and I made some time ago (see earlier posts) in the Open Source Delft University of Technology Astrodynamics Toolkit (Tudat) to see whether I, with trial-and-error, could get a reentry model for XJY-7 to end over the Canary Islands. As it turns out, I could, for a mass of 2717 kg (close to 3 tons) and a drag area of 37.44 m² (the maximum drag surface listed by DISCOS), using past and current space weather.

The map below shows the resulting reentry groundtrack and times for this model integration. Note that the model does not take fragmentation and mass loss into account, so it has limitations and is an approximation only. I had the model terminate at 20 km altitude.

The figure below the map, compares the sky trajectory resulting from this model for the location of the Izana Atmospheric Research Center, to that registered by the all sky camera at Izana. They match well.

Click map to enlarge

 

click to enlarge

 

It is curious that no TIP was issued for this reentry by CSpOC. This was a large heavy object: 3 x 5 x 9 meter and 3 tons in mass. CSpOC apparently overlooked this reentry - a few hours post reentry, they however did add an administrative "decay message" for October 16 to the catalogue for this object, but without any further details. 

We recently have seen a complete lack of TIP's being issued for any object, for over a month. Only recently, CSpOC resumed issuing TIP's. CSpOC is currently clearly having some issues with their system. Luckily, we were nevertheless able to identify the object responsible for this spectacular reentry, by some diligent analysis.

 

UPDATE 17 Oct 2025  22:00 UTC:

Click map to enlarge (map updated to correct typo)

I played a little bit more with the reentry model, tinkering the area to mass ratio to get an even better fit to the sky trajectory as seen from the Izana camera station. Here is an updated plot of the modelled sky trajectory (numbers next to trajectory are atmospheric altitudes in km according to the simulation):

A mass of 2715.5 kg creates a very good fit, except for the end of the trail. That is no surprise: the reentry model is a simple model without mass loss and fragmentation, while in reality there is massive mass loss and fragmentation (meaning: changing area to mass ratio's for various fragments). When solid parts survive, heavy relative to their size, these have a lower area to mass ratio meaning they lose altitude less quickly.

Here is the improved model trajectory overlayed on the Izana camera image:

Click image to enlarge

(I thank Josep Trigo (ICE-CSIC/IEEC) and the Spanish SPMN for data and discussions)

A Trident-II D5 SLBM launch in the Atlantic on 21 September 2025: analysis of footage from Puerto Rico (UPDATED)

frame stack of movie by SAC station Anasco, Puerto Rico

 

click map to enlarge

On 15 September 2025, Navigational Warnings appeared that pointed to an upcoming Trident-II D5 SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) unarmed test launch in the Atlantic between 17 and 22 September 2025, from a submarine of either the US Navy or UK Royal Navy positioned some 400 km out of the coast of Florida (update 24 Sept 2025: according to this US DoD bulletin it was an American test launch from an unnamed Ohio-class SSBN (Ballistic Missile submarine). The submarine test-launched four Trident missiles between Sept 17 and 21). I have posted about such tests and the typical pattern of Navigational Warnings associated to them earlier, in an analysis of a Trident launch that was inadvertently captured on camera in a time-lapse by an amateur astronomer on La Palma in September of 2013.

And now we have another case of inadvertant capture on camera of such a launch, and a second opportunity for analysis! 

In the evening of 21 September 2025 near 23:30 UTC, eyewitnesses in Puerto Rico saw a fuzzy object and what looked like expanding missile exhaust clouds move through the sky, consistent with a rocket or missile launch. The event was captured by amongst others a meteor camera of the Caribbean Astronomy Society (SAC) near Anasco, Puerto Rico. 

Eddie Irizarry of SAC was so kind to send me the video footage for identification and analysis. Immediately, it was clear to me that the video showed the Trident test launch we expected.

In top of this post is a frame-stack from the footage. Below it is a map I prepared showing the northern part of the sky as seen from the camera station in Puerto Rico, with the blue line representing the sky trajectory expected for this Trident launch for an assumed (but see below) apogee altitude of 2200 km. They compare well (note: the video stack shows a part of the trajectory only, up to about azimuth 30 degrees, while the sky map shows the full trajectory).

Here is the video footage itself (courtesy of  Eddie Irizarry, used with permission):

 

 

The trajectory for this Trident test launch is known, as it can be reconstructed from the Navigational Warnings that have been issued for it. Below is the Navigational Warning, and a map where I have plotted the exclusion zones A-D from it, and a fitted ballistic trajectory:

151958Z SEP 25
HYDROLANT 1538/25(GEN).
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
DNC 01, DNC 16.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 171830Z TO 220136Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-34.00N 076-29.00W, 29-07.00N 076-28.00W,
      29-05.00N 075-33.00W, 28-30.00N 075-35.00W.
   B. 28-37.00N 075-51.00W, 28-55.00N 075-44.00W,
      27-44.00N 070-28.00W, 27-05.00N 070-28.00W.
   C. 16-28.00N 044-01.00W, 17-01.00N 043-43.00W,
      14-36.00N 038-46.00W, 13-37.00N 039-33.00W.
   D. 10-35.00S 001-40.00W, 10-05.00S 001-25.00W,
      12-01.00S 002-21.00E, 12-45.00S 002-55.00E,
      13-11.00S 002-20.00E, 13-01.00S 002-02.00E,
      13-04.00S 002-00.00E, 12-38.00S 001-15.00E.
   E. 26-58.00N 070-28.00W, 28-14.00N 070-28.00W,
      25-56.00N 063-20.00W, 24-34.00N 063-50.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220236Z SEP 25.

click map to enlarge

 

On the map, I have undicated the part of the trajectory that was captured by the SAC camera on Puerto Rico as a yellow line. 

Area A is the launch area where the submarine is located. Areas B, E and C are respectively the splashdown zones of the first, second and third stages of the missile. Area D is the RV (Reentry Vehicle) target zone. The switched designations for the C and E area are probably a clerical error.

The launch area, 400 km out of the Florida coast is one of two well established launch locations for Trident tests in the Atlantic (see my earlier investigation here). Likewise, the target area in the southeastern part of the Atlantic, 900 km east of St Helena at a range of about 9500 km from the launch site, is a well known target location for these test launches.

What cannot be well gleaned from Navigational Warnings alone, is the apogee altitude of this test. 

In this post, I will however reconstruct it from a combination of the known missile flight trajectory and measurements of the missile's sky track in the video footage from Puerto Rico, in a similar way as I analysed the earlier 2013 Trident observation from La Palma. For that 2013 test, I found an apogee at ~1800 km.

The video (the original is higher resolution than the version posted in this blogpost) provides plenty of reference stars to do astrometry on the missile path through the sky. So I measured the missile's position with respect to the stars for several frames from the video. Plotting  these observed positions (in RA/DEC) on a star map along with the expected sky trajectories in RA/DEC for various assumed apogee altitudes (based on the trajectory from the Navigational Warnings), it is clear that an apogee of 2200 km fits best. Red crosses in the plot below are the measured positions from the video: the blue lines provide the expected missile tracks for various apogee altitudes:

click map to enlarge

(note that I choose to plot RA on the Y-axis rather than X-axis, in order to get a plot orientation that is most easily compared to the video footage).

Earlier, while similarly analyzing the Trident launch seen from La Palma in 2013, I found an indicated apogee of ~1800 km, some 400 km lower than seems to be the case with this latest test launch. Both values are significantly higher than the ~1200 km that is often taken as a canonical value for an intercontinental missile apogee. These tests in the Atlantic therefore appear to be a bit "lofted", perhaps simply to keep the Reentry Vehicle (RV) impact area sufficiently out of the African coast.

From the timing of the Puerto Rico video, the actual launch time was likely somewhere near 23:27 UTC (Sept 21) from a location  near 28.8 N, 76.3 W, with a flight time near 41 minutes from launch to RV impact. As seen from Puerto Rico the missile cleared the horizon while at ~150 km altitude, steadily climbing to  ~800 km when it left the field of view of the CAS camera station (while continuing its ascend towards apogee). The closest slant range to the camera station was ~1300 km. The big cloud of exhaust gas seen in the early part of the video likely stops upon ejection of the second or third stage. The various smaller "pufs" of exhaust cloud that can be seen later emanating from the fuzzy object, are probably due to either the third stage or post-boost vehicle orienting itself.

(With thanks to Eddie Irizarry/CAS for sending me the footage and for his permission to use it in this blog) 

UPDATE 24 Sept 2025: 

According to this US DoD bulletin the missile was launched from an unnamed US Ohio-class Ballistic Missile submarine (SSBN). The submarine reportedly test-launched as much as four Trident missiles of the 5DLE variety between Sept 17 and 21. The below image was published, showing a Sept 21 nighttime launch, the missile that was seen from Puerto Rico:

 

Sept 21 2025 Trident missile launch. Photo US Navy/Shelby Thompson

X-37B OTV 8 and Limasat (the USSF-36 payloads) imaged

 

This morning (early 24 August 2025) weather finally cooperated and I managed to observe both of the USSF-36 payloads, two days after launch: the X-37B Spaceplane OTV 8 (2025-183A) and  LIMASAT (2025-183B). Limasat was about half a minute in front of OTV 8.

Above is footage from this pass, showing both objects. The footage was obtained from my home in Leiden, the Netherlands, using a WATEC 902H2 Supreme camera with a Samyang 1.4/85 mm lens filming at 25 frames/second. This was an early twilight pass low in the south-southwest (27 degrees maximum elevation).

Below are framestacks from parts of the footage (both framestacks are 51-frame stacks):

Limasat (stack of 51 frames)

 

X-37B OTV 8 (stack of 51 frames)

 

Current observations show OTV 8 in a 331 x 342 km, 49.5 degree inclined orbit. Limasat is in a 330 x 341 km, 49.5 degree inclined orbit. Limasat was probably carried piggyback on the X-37B Service Module before being released.

X-37B Spaceplane mission OTV 8 located on orbit

OTV 8 imaged by Kevin Fetter 5 hours after launch. Image (c) Kevin Fetter, used with permission

OTV 8, the 8th mission of the US Space Force's X-37B Spaceplane, launched on 22 August 2025 at 03:50 UTC. It has been catalogued as 2025-183A (cat. nr. 65271) under the name of  'USA 555', along with a second payload, called LIMASAT (2025-183B, 65272). The latter has probably been dispensed from the OTV 8 service module.

Five hours after launch, Kevin Fetter managed to observe OTV 8. Above is one of his images, showing OTV 8 as a short bright trail in a partly cloudy sky. 

A preliminary orbit fit suggests that OTV 8 is in a 327 x 334 km, 49.5 degree inclined orbit [update 25 Aug 2025: the latest improved orbit update shows it in a 331 x 342 km, 49.5 degree inclined orbit]: a slightly (~20 km) lower orbital altitude than my initial pre-launch guess but otherwise a quite comparable orbit.

Click image to enlarge

 

An overview of the OTV missions so far: 

MISSION  ORBITER  LAUNCH   INCL   ORBIT   DURATION
--------------------------------------------------
OTV 1    I        2010     40.0   LEO     224 days
OTV 2    II       2011     42.8   LEO     468 days
OTV 3    I        2012     43.5   LEO     674 days
OTV 4    II       2015     38.0   LEO     717 days
OTV 5    II       2017     54.5   LEO     780 days
OTV 6    I        2020     45.0   LEO     909 days
OTV 7    II       2023     59.1   HEO     435 days
OTV 8    I        2025     49.5   LEO         tbd
--------------------------------------------------

Bad weather in the Netherlands has so far precluded me from trying to observe the latest launch.
 

EDIT (24 August 2025): 

I imaged both the USSF-36 payloads (OTV 8 and Limasat) in the early morning of 24 August, see this follow-up blogpost with footage. 

An upcoming Hypersonic Missile Test (repeat of FT-3) from Kodiak to Kwajalein [UPDATED]

Click map to enlarge

Navigational Warnings have been published that point to a Hypersonic Missile Test (a repeat of the failed FT-3 from 2021) from the Pacific Space Port at Kodiak Island, Alaska, to the Ronald Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein, Marshall Islands, between August 22-26, 2025. The range is about 6350 km.

Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 520/25 defines three hazard zones (A, B and C in the map above), one near Kodiak Island and two in the mid Pacific, for the splashdowns of the three rocket booster stages. Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 2097/25 defines a hazard area at Kwajalein Atoll for the Hypersonic payload impact area. I have plotted the areas in the map above.

The test appears to be a repeat of the failed FT-3 test from 2021. This test was scrubbed in June 2021 and next failed on a second attempt on 21 October 2021, reportedly when one of the booster stages failed in flight.

Details on FT-3 can be found in this US DoD document. A three-stage STARS (Strategic Target System) launch vehicle consisting of two Orion stages and a C4 stage would launch the hypersonic payload from the Kodiak Pacific Space Port Complex and (based on Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 2097/25) target the Northeast Deep Water Impact Zone near Gagan island on Kwajalein.

Here is the text of the Navigational Warnings:

080912Z AUG 25
NAVAREA XII 520/25(16,19).
GULF OF ALASKA.
NORTH PACIFIC.
ALASKA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 220400Z TO 221000Z AUG, 
   ALTERNATE 0400Z TO 1000Z DAILY 23 THRU 26 AUG
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 54-12.00N 156-36.00W, 54-03.00N 156-14.00W,
      55-16.00N 153-14.00W, 56-32.00N 152-01.00W,
      57-29.00N 152-06.00W, 57-32.00N 152-20.00W,
      56-59.00N 153-06.00W, 57-00.00N 153-30.00W.
   B. 46-32.00N 167-23.00W, 46-24.00N 167-05.00W,
      45-43.00N 167-45.00W, 45-51.00N 168-03.00W.
   C. 37-36.00N 175-36.00W, 37-19.00N 175-00.00W,
      32-19.00N 178-40.00W, 32-41.00N 179-12.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 261100Z AUG 25.


080852Z AUG 25
HYDROPAC 2097/25(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 220400Z TO 221000Z AUG, 
   ALTERNATE 0400Z TO 1000Z DAILY 23 THRU 26 AUG
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-43.00N 167-47.00E, 09-36.00N 167-59.00E,
   09-11.00N 167-44.00E, 09-17.00N 167-33.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 261100Z AUG 25. 

 

UPDATE 23 Aug 2025:

The launch happened on 22 August 2025 at 06:10 UTC. Footage of the launch shot from Seward, Alaska, by Seth Andrzejewski is here on twitter.  

The upcoming launch of the X-37B Spaceplane mission OTV 8

X-37B mission OTV 6 after landing (Image: US Air Force)

Navigational Warnings have appeared for OTV 8, the 8th launch of the secretive X-37B spaceplane by the US Space Force (launch USSF-36). The launch, on a SpaceX Falcon 9, will be from Cape Canaveral launch pad 39A. The window of the Navigational Warning runs from 22 to 28 August 2025, with a time window of 08:30 - 10:30 UTC 03:40 - 08:03 UTC for August 22 (August 21 local date in Florida). There is something odd with these times by the way, on which more later.

Navigational Warnings NAVAREA IV 877/25 and HYDROPAC 2096/25 define two hazard zones. One is the immediate launch hazard zone on the Florida coast. The other is the deorbit area for the Falcon 9 upper stage, in the Eastern Pacific, near the end of the first revolution. 

While the direction of the first hazard zone on the Florida coast suggests a 42 degree inclined orbit, the location and direction of the Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit area is incompatible with this. Rather, it fits a 49.5 degree inclined orbit. The location and the time difference of the deorbit window start compared to that for the launch area, strongly point to launch into a Low Earth Orbit, with an orbital altitude likely near 350-400 km, just like the first six missions (remember that mission OTV 7 surprisingly was sent into a Highly Elliptical Orbit, see several previous posts, e.g. here).

I have plotted the two hazard zones and a launch trajectory for a 49.5 degree inclined, ~350 km altitude orbit in the map below. Numbers next to the trajectory refer to the flight time in minutes after launch:

 

Click map to enlarge

 

Below are the two Navigational Warnings:

142327Z AUG 25
NAVAREA IV 877/25(11).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   220340Z TO 220803Z AUG, ALTERNATE
   230400Z TO 230823Z, 240420Z TO 240843Z,
   250440Z TO 250728Z, 260500Z TO 260748Z,
   270345Z TO 270808Z AND 280540Z TO 280833Z AUG
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-40.25N 080-38.57W, 28-50.00N 080-22.00W,
   28-39.00N 080-11.00W, 28-27.24N 080-31.58W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 280933Z AUG 25.


141931Z AUG 25
HYDROPAC 2096/25(83).
PACIFIC OCEAN.
DNC 06, DNC 13.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   220500Z TO 220911Z, 230520Z TO 230931Z,
   240540Z TO 240951Z, 250600Z TO 250836Z,
   260620Z TO 260856Z, 270505Z TO 270916Z
   AND 280700Z TO 280941Z AUG 
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-55.00N 120-25.00W, 10-41.00N 121-25.00W,
   07-44.00S 135-45.00W, 08-30.00S 134-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281041Z AUG 25.

Note the shift in launch time with date: 03:40 - 08:03 UTC for the 22nd, 04:00 - 08:23 UTC for the 23rd, etcetera: a shift forward in time of 20 minutes per day. [edit: as noted by Ted Molczan, the times next suddenly shift to - nearly - the initial times again by August 27. I still cannot make sense of it]

The direction of this shift is odd. It is forward, to a later time each day: if a particular orbital plane is aimed for, it should however shift backwards, to an earlier time, each day. I wonder if this is a mistake and someone added corrections into the wrong direction...

The X-37B spaceplane (there are actually two of them) is the subject of a lot of conjecture and wild tales. My interpretation is that it is a technology testbed, not some space weapon such as the Russians and Chinese would have it. 

The rumoured "high manoeuverability" is often misunderstood: in flight, the X-37B does not change its orbital plane (see this earlier post from 2019). It does change orbital altitude frequently, and during the last mission (OTV 7) into HEO, it used Aerobraking (briefly dipping into the upper atmosphere during perigee) near the end of its mission to reduce orbital speed and altitude in preparation for landing. It manoeuvered almost daily during that mission. However, and I want to re-emphasize this as it is a common misunderstanding, it does not swirl and manoeuver like an X-wing Starfighter or Tie-fighter, changing orbital plane at will. In many ways, on-orbit it is just another satellite, moving in a fixed orbital plane (this is how we trackers find it back after an orbit raising or lowering manoeuver: we do a plane scan). The wings only function in the atmosphere, not in space.

According to this Space Force bulletin, mission OTV 8 will experiment with laser communications with "proliferated commercial satellite networks in Low Earth Orbit" (read: Starlink). It will also test a new navigation device, a "quantum inertial sensor" which works by "detecting rotation and acceleration of atoms without reliance on satellite networks like traditional GPS". This experimental technique is important to be able to continue navigating in space when GPS is being jammed/spoofed, and will become an important means of navigation in XGEO (CisLunar Space) in the future.