The reentry of Starlink-1541 over the northern Netherlands on 24 July 2026

click map to enlarge

On 24 July 2026 near 20:26 UTC (22:26 CEST), a defunct Starlink satellite, Starlink-1541, reentered over the North Sea, northern Netherlands and Germany. 

I observed the reentry myself (along with many, many other people). I was on a sailing holliday onboard the historic sailing vessel 'De Onderneming' at that time. We had sailed from Medemblik to Oudeschild on the island of Texel that day, and were sitting on deck in the harbour of Oudeschild (53.03898 N, 4.85058 E) during twilight, when Ide, the deck-hand who was facing west, suddenly said "What is that?!".

As I turned my head in the direction she was pointing into, I saw a bright fast moving object rising from the west in the twilight sky, leaving a trail in its wake. It initially was "blinking" in a semi-regular fashion, which put me on the wrong foot for a few seconds, thinking: "aircraft?". But then, as it rose higher in the sky and passed through the zenith, fragmentation became obvious, and I realised it was a space debris reentry. It continued fragmenting while moving to the eastern horizon. It left a vapour trail that lingered for more than 10 minutes.

I did not have my phone directly at hand, as it was charging in the cabin inside our ship. So I do not have imagery of the reentry itself, but did shoot this image of the lingering vapour trail:

lingering vapour trail. Click image to enlarge

This lingering vapour trail consists of amongst others fine aluminium and carbon particles

A nice collection of photographs and video of the event was gathered by the IMO here, and in this NOS news item (which quotes me). The video below of the event is from the meteor camera of Erwin Harkink (NL000C) in Elst, the Netherlands, where it was lower in the sky:

Of course, my next question was: "what object was this?". As I was on holliday, I did not have my laptop with software with me, only my phone. Logging into Space-Track, a TIP message (22:51 UTC ± 2 hr) with a difference of (at that time) about two hours for Starlink-1541 (2020-055AB) seemed to indicate that satellite as a potential candidate, but with only my phone at hand I had no means to check whether the time of the event matched a pass over the Netherlands. Luckily, Joseph Remis on twitter quickly made the connection and established Starlink-1541 as the identity of this reentering object. 

Several hours later, the final post-reentry TIP issued by CSpOC appeared and was a clear match: 24 July 2026 20:26 ± 1m UTC near 52.7 N, 9.6 E (as mentioned before on this blog, Jonathan McDowell and I believe that these very accurate post-reentry issued ±1m TIP's are based on US DoD satellite observations of the reentry fireball). As Dutch News reports at that time where still identifying the event as a 'meteor', I had a post-midnight whatsapp interview with a journalist of the National Broadcaster NOS about the real character of the fireball in order to set the record straight.

After returning home a week later, I used the latest orbital data available from CSpOC to run a reentry model on Starlink-1541 using our Delft University of Technology's Astrodynamics Toolkit (Tudat), in order to try to reconstruct the likely reentry trajectory. I varied the drag area in the model untill it resulted in typical reentry altitudes (< 90 km) over the northern Netherlands around 20:26 UTC. This is the resulting approximate trajectory (meaning: there is some leeway in exact altitudes and times, but in general this trajectory should be close to reality); the first map gives approximate times, the second approximate atmospheric altitudes:

trajectory and approximate positions (click map to enlarge)

trajectory and approximate atmospheric altitudes (click map to enlarge)

As can be seen, at the harbour of Oudeschild on Texel (one of Dutch Wadden islands) we were almost directly underneath the path of the reentry. Indeed, we saw it pass almost through the zenith, in agreement with this sky-track for Oudeschild harbour resulting from the Tudat reentry reconstruction (note that it was in twilight so only the brightest stars were visible in reality):

reconstructed sky trajectory for Oudeschild (click map to enlarge)

Starlink-1541 (2020-055AB) was launched from Cape Canaveral on 7 August 2020 on a Falcon 9, with 60 other Starlinks and two additional satellites. On 8 February 2026, after 5 years of service, it lowered its orbit in preparation for deorbit. On 24 July 2026, it met its end over the Dutch Wadden Sea.

Starlink-1541 orbital history (click diagram to enlarge)

This was my first ever reentry observation (I tried several times when pre-reentry forecasts suggested an object might reenter over the Netherlands, but in vain): something that was high on my wishlist and can now be struck off. 

I was lucky to see it. Initially, I was to go on holliday on the Scottish west coast, but the sailing vessel in question got a damaged motor, so that holliday was cancelled. I then went on a shorter alternative sailing holliday on the Dutch Wadden Sea with 'De Onderneming'. This brought me right under the reentry path! We were also lucky to be outside on deck when it happened. If only I would have had my phone in my pocket rather than charging inside the ship....

Possible Space Debris impact in Kenia: a piece of the Ariane SYLDA 2008-034C? [updated]

the metal ring found near Mukuku in Kenia. Image: Kenia Space Agency

the metal ring found near Mukuku in Kenia. Image: Kenia Space Agency

the metal ring found near Mukuku in Kenia. Image: Kenia Space Agency

 

On 30 December 2024, reportedly near 12:00 UTC, an odd object is believed to have fallen from the sky near the village of Mukuku in Kenia (approximately 1.58 S, 37.61 E, some 100 km from the Kenian capital Nairobi). It is metal ring of about 2.5 meter in size and reportedly 500 kg mass, although that mass could be an estimate only.

The Kenya Space Agency is investigating, believing it to be Space Debris. Apart from the metal ring in the pictures, other fragments looking consistent with space debris, for example what looks like carbon wrap and isolation foil, were found several kilometers away from it (see video below):

 

It is still not entirely clear if the object is space debris (although it looks likely), and if so, which object from what launch. There are two reentry candidates for this date, only one of which looks viable as a candidate (see also Jonathan McDowell's summary here).

That viable candidate is object 33155 (2008-034C), an Ariane SYLDA adapter from flight V184, the launch of ProtoStar 1 and BADR 6 to geosynchonous orbit on 7 July 2008. This SYLDA adapter was left in a 1.6 degree inclined GTO following the launch and had its reentry on or near December 30. 

As I will investigate below, using a reentry simulation, both the location where the ring was found and the reported fall time are realistic for it to be this object.

CSpOC, the US military tracking network, last recorded 2008-034C in a 1923 x 146 km orbit on December 23, i.e. a week before the Kenia impact. As this is a very low inclination orbit (1.56 degrees), it belongs to a class of objects that is ill-tracked due to a lack of tracking stations close to the equator. This explains the 1-week gap between the last available orbit and the reentry.

As a note: what is a SYLDA? A SYLDA ("SYstème de Lancement Double Ariane") is a kind of hollow shell put over the first payload, in order that a second payload can be mounted above it.The conical upper part of the SYLDA has a smallest diameter near 2.6 meter, i.e. similar to the size of the ring found in Kenia, which then could be an upper Payload Adapter Fitting (PAF).

A SYLDA (black) as part of a stage, satellite and fairing stack (image: ESA)

An Ariane SYLDA (image: ESA)

CSpOC issued a reentry TIP for this SYLDA for 30 December 2024, 21:38 UTC +- 59 minutes. That is the date of the Kenia event, but not the correct time, as the Kenia event reportedly happened near 12:00 UTC, nine hours earlier. However, the quoted uncertainty of 59 minutes from this TIP is not realistic, if based on the last available orbit (a week old at the time!). A more realistic uncertainty estimate would be +- 1.5 days. 

Ignoring the CSpOC TIP time, I did an independent impact prediction, using the development version of the open source TU Delft Astrodynamics Toolbox (TUDAT).

I used the last available orbit (epoch 24358.42010446) and the nrlmsise00 model atmosphere to run a reentry prediction, using a trial-and-error approach to see whether I could tinker with the drag area such that it would reenter near 1.58 S, 37.61 E near 12:00 UTC on December 30. 

From @DutchSpace on twitter, who is very knowledgeable on Ariane hardware, I got a mass of 505 kg for the SYLDA in question. The dimensions for the SYLDA on flight V184 should have been about 4.5 x 6.4 meter (there are different versions of SYLDA with different mass and sizes).

After some trial-and-error, I can make the object reenter at 1.57 S, 37.61 E  on 30 December 2024 at 11:49 UTC, close to the reported location and time, if I use an average drag area of ~18.24 m². That is a value which is about 63% of the maximum drag area of this SYLDA (roughly 28.8 m²). This is a reasonable value: during earlier reentry analysis for elongated objects like rocket stages (or in this case, a hollow elongated adapter), I found that a drag area of about 60% - 62% of the maximum area is usually a good approximation to account for the variability in drag due to tumbling .

Below is what the approach trajectory from this simulation would be:

click map to enlarge

While my TUDAT simulation does not prove that the object is debris from 2008-034C (SYLDA), it does show that it is feasible for the reported time and location.

How about that 'other' candidate? That was an Atlas Centaur booster, 2004-034B, for which CSpOC gives a TIP of 30 December 2024 21:30 +- 1 m UTC. However, the orbital plane of this candidate did not pass over Kenia at the reported time (12:00 UTC), and moreover, this object was still detected on-orbit several hours after the reported time of the Kenia event (see also Jonathan McDowell's analysis here): the last reported orbit is for epoch 30 December 2024 15:50 UTC (but it is always possible that a part came off earlier). For these reasons, it is not that likely that the Kenia event was due to a part of this object.

@DutchSpace on twitter, who as mentioned is very knowledgeable on Ariane hardware, so far has trouble positively identifying the ring as a SYLDA part (and that worries me). If the reported mass of 500 kg is correct, that is too heavy for it to be part of this SYLDA too. I have some suspicion however that the reported mass is an overestimate.

For now the verdict is: possibly the reentry of parts of the Ariane SYLDA 2008-034C, but not proven beyond doubt yet.

Here is the final output [revised after running both a TUDAT and TUDAT script update] of my TUDAT reentry model (I had it stop at 50 km altitude, as at that altitude the object should have completely fragmented and decelerated, with fragments falling down basically vertically):

mass: 505 kg
drag area: 18.236375 m^2
altitude limit: 50000.0 meter

propagation start: 2024-12-23 10:04:57.030000 UTC
propagation end:   2024-12-30 11:49:25.029545 UTC
final altitude:    49.879

reentry after 7.072 days

REENTRY AT:
2024-12-30 11:49:25.029545 UTC
lat: -1.57
lon: 37.61

Values in the last three lines are nominal only, the error margins over a 7-day integration period are large. Also ignore the superfluous digits. As a reminder: I tinkered with the drag area untill I got a value that made it reenter as close to 1.58 S, 37.61 E and 12:00 UTC as possible, and the above output gives the relevent drag area and the resulting modelled reentry time and location.

The TUDAT script used can be downloaded here (note: you have to use this script with the 'development version' of TUDAT, as the current non-development release of TUDAT has a bug where the epoch of a TLE is incorrectly read). The development version of TUDAT and installation instructions can be found here.

UPDATE 9 Jan 2025:

In a statement to Gaël Lombart of Le Parisien, Arianespace engineers have cast doubt on the identification of the crashed object as a SYLDA part, indicating that the size of the ring does not fit and stating that "this part does not belong to an element of a European launcher operated by Arianespace". So the mystery remains as to what this object's origin is.