An upcoming Russian SSO launch from Plesetsk

click map to enlarge

Navigational Warnings have appeared pointing to an upcoming Soyuz launch from Plesetsk between February 9 and 13.

The direction of the launch suggests a ~97.4-degree inclined Sun-Synchronous Polar Orbit. If I would guess at the payload, it likely is either a BARS-M or a EO-MKA optical reconnaissance satellite, based on the orbital inclination aimed for.

While I initially interpreted this launch as a possible BARS-M launch, the lack of a deorbit area for a 3rd stage might suggest an EO-MKA instead (the EO-MKA's are prototypes of a small optical imaging satellite). Or maybe it is something new altogether.

Here are the Navigational Warnings:

051945Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 10/24(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   70-13.00N 033-11.00E, 70-18.00N 033-49.00E,
   70-12.00N 034-11.00E, 69-54.00N 034-46.00E,
   69-33.00N 034-47.00E, 69-25.00N 034-15.00E,
   69-35.00N 033-37.00E, 69-53.00N 033-05.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.


052111Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 12/24(42,43).
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   75-59.00N 021-26.00E, 75-50.00N 022-05.00E,
   75-35.00N 022-47.00E, 75-21.00N 022-52.00E,
   75-15.00N 022-13.00E, 75-24.00N 021-29.00E,
   75-36.00N 020-51.00E, 75-53.00N 020-43.00E.
2. CANCEL HYDROARC 11/24.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.

The map in top of this post shows the two areas plotted: one is just north of Murmansk, the other close to Svalbard. I have not been able to find a matching area for the upper stage deorbit.

The reentry of a Soyuz rocket stage over southern Australia on August 7

click map to enlarge

 

On 7 August 2023 at 13:20 UTC, Russia launched the first of it's improved GLONASS-K2 navigation satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The launch employed a Soyuz 2.1b rocket with a Fregat upper stage. The payload and the Fregat upper stage were subsequently catalogued in 19156 x 19135 km resp 19182 x 19005 km, 64.8 degree inclined Medium Earth Orbits (MEO), as catalogue numbers 57517 and 57518.

Some 40 minutes after the launch, people from southern Australia and Tasmania were treated to a spectacular sight of a bright slow-moving, fragmenting fireball that crossed the sky. Many eyewitness video's were posted on social media and poicked up by the News media: for a few fine examples see here, here, here and  here. Immediate suspicions were raised that this was space debris.

Indeed, the fireball was the Soyuz 3rd stage reentering the atmosphere. A Navigational Warning for space debris connected to this launch had been published earlier (HYDROPAC 2502/23), for an area south of Australia and Tasmania:

021113Z AUG 23
HYDROPAC 2502/23(75,76).
TASMAN SEA.
WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
TASMANIA.
DNC 05, DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   071300Z TO 071600Z AUG, ALTERNATE
   1300Z TO 1600Z DAILY 08 AND 09 AUG
   IN AREA WITHIN 35 MILES OF TRACKLINE JOINING
   43-10.00S 148-55.00E, 53-30.00S 163-20.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 091700Z AUG 23.

The time window matches well with the Australian reentry sighting. The area defined by the Navigational Warning matches a launch into a ~63 degree inclined parking orbit from Plesetsk:

click map to enlarge

 

The Soyuz 2.1b rocket consists of four side boosters ('stage 1'), a core stage ('stage 2') and a third stage. On top of that is (for this launch) the Fregat upper stage. The Soyuz rocket brings the Fregat upper stage and GLONASS payload in a low parking orbit. From there, a series of firings of the Fregat stage bring the payload to 19150 km Medium Earth Orbit (MEO). The Fregat upper stage is left on orbit, but the Soyuz stages deorbit downrange from the launch site: the last of these stages, is the stage that reentered over southern Australia about half a revolution after the launch.

GLONASS is the Russian equivalent of GPS.