Rapid tumbling of the Chang'e 2 r/b (2010-050B) and Rollercoaster orbital evolution

(click image to enlarge)

Recently, I have posted several times about my tracking of two extremely remote pieces of space junk: 2010-050B and 2013-070B, the CZ-3C upper stages of the Chinese Chang'e 2 and 3 Lunar missions. These orbit in orbits with (currently) perigee just within, and apogee beyond one Lunar distance, i.e. a trans-Lunar orbit.

In a recent post I discussed the tumbling behaviour of 2013-070B, the Chang'e 3 booster. At that time, I stated that by contrast the Chang'e 2 booster, 2010-050B, appears steady.

I can now say that is not true: 2010-050B is tumbling too. And very rapidly, which is why I didn't notice it earlier.

My earlier imaging sessions were done while 2010-050B was at well over one Lunar distance (beyond 400 000 km), towards its apogee. On July 18th I imaged it from MPC Q65 Warrumbungle while it was only a few hours from its perigee, at a distance of 280 000 km (about three quarter of a Lunar Distance), moving at 47" per minute. The result is a much longer trail on the image than in earlier imaging sessions.

Rather than being a trail, suddenly the trail is resolved in a series of dots: typically three (and in one image two) per 30 second exposure. See the image in the top of this post. The reason this was not visible during earlier imaging sessions, was that the trail was so short (a  few arcsecs) when imaging the object at larger distance, that the dots merge into one trail.

The 3 dots per image, and once two dots, indicate a flash period of ~15 seconds, testifying to a rapid tumble. This is close to the period determined by Peter Birthwhistle (MPC J95 Great Shefford) in 2010 shortly after the launch.

I also imaged 2013-070B that night, at a distance of about 479 000 km (1.25 Lunar Distances). This object is tumbling much slower than 2010-050B: the brightness variation in the animated GIF below fits nicely with the 7m 05s flash period determined from June 26 and July 5.

The orbits of 2010-050B and 2013-070B are changing extremely fast, in a chaotic way, notably as a result of Lunar perturbations. As you can see in the table that is part of my SeeSat-List post here, the apogee of the 2010-050B orbit for example changed from about 550 000 km to about 446 000 km between May 7 and July 18. The perigee changed from about 350 000 km to about 280 000 km, i.e. from about 1 Lunar Distance to about 0.73 Lunar Distance, during that same period. The orbital period was shortened by almost 10 days.

While the apogee and perigee distances are currently decreasing for this object, a new Lunar perturbation might make them increase again in the future. The orbital inclination also widely varies over time. Such changes are very sudden, especially in connection to close Lunar encounters. These objects are on a true Rollercoaster ride through the Earth-Moon system.

As it turns out, this kind of chaotic orbit is very difficult to model, even over relatively short time scales. Attempts using GMAT show that very small variations in the determined orbit yield very different outcomes within only a few years. Variations in the order of a few hundred meters (!) in apogee and perigee will already do it, i.e. variations well within the uncertainties in the determined orbital parameters.

GMAT-simulated chaotic orbital evolution of 2010-050B over a 1.5 year period. Grey is the Moon orbit, red is 2010-050B orbit, blue grid is earth equatorial plane. In reality, the orbital evolution might be different as small variations in initial conditions (see text) yield large differences after 1.5 years.

So we have to observe these objects to see how their orbits evolve in the future. And this is what I will do: keep following them, over the coming years.

Basically, three eventual future fates are possible for these objects: one is eventual ejection into a Heliocentric orbit (so it will leave the Earth-Moon system); two is an eventual Earth impact (i.e. a decay in the Earth atmosphere); and three is an impact on the moon.

2013-070B (Chang'e 3 r/b): a tumbling rocket stage at one Lunar distance

In two posts in May (here and here) I reported on my telescopic observations of 2010-050B, the upper stage of the Chinese Chang'e 2 Lunar mission in a trans-Lunar orbit.



This is not the only one of these objects observable (and sometimes mistaken for a Near Earth Asteroid, as 2010-050B in May was). The animated GIF above, shows you 2013-070B, the upper stage of the Chang'e 3 Lunar mission, imaged on July 5th using the 0.51-meter telescope of MPC Q65 Warrumbungle in Australia. It was at a distance of about 336000 km, roughly one Lunar distance, at that time

Unlike 2010-050B, which is stable in brightness, this objects is clearly tumbling and shows a marked periodic brightness variation as a result. There is a clear saw-tooth pattern with a steep ascending slope and more shallow descending slope, an amplitude of ~2.5 magnitudes and a period of about 420-425 seconds (or ~7 minutes).

(click diagram to enlarge)

Observations of the same object from June 26 can be fitted to a very similar 7 minute period and ~2.5 magnitude amplitude, but with the descending instead of the ascending slope steeper and the ascending slope more shallow, the reverse of the July 5 observations.

The July 5 observations combined with the June 26 observations result in the following orbit for 2013-050B:

Find_Orb
Perigee 2015 Jul 8.981227 +/- 0.0143 TT = 23:32:58 (JD 2457212.481227)
Epoch 2015 Jul 6.0 TT = JDT 2457209.5 
M 298.03225 +/- 0.15 
n 20.78598673 +/- 0.0509 

a 282763.321 +/- 462 km
e 0.7243890 +/- 0.00115 
Incl. 23.49157 +/- 0.0006 deg
Peri. 40.10428 +/- 0.055 deg
Node 141.35795 +/- 0.0017 deg
  
q 77932.6554 +/- 449 km   Q 487593.987 +/- 472 km
P 17.32d

24 of 29 observations 2015 June 26-July 5; mean residual 0".577. 

Chang'e 3 rb
1 00000U         15187.00000000  .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 05
2 00000 23.4899 141.5720 7239912 39.8984 298.3594 0.05732427 01 

The orbit is more eccentric and has a smaller semi-major axis (and as a result, a perigee closer to Earth) and smaller orbital inclination than that of 2010-050B.

2013-070B and 2010-050B move in chaotic orbits: frequent close encounters with the Moon create sudden, drastic changes in eccentricity, inclination, perigee and apogee. It is possible that both objects will be ejected out of the Earth-Moon system in the future, into a Heliocentric orbit.

Below are the orbits for both objects as of July 6, 2015:

(click to enlarge images)

Tracking distant space debris: more Chang'e 2 r/b observations

In my previous post I related how on May 7 a distant piece of Space junk was briefly mistaken for a Near Earth Asteroid. It concerned 2010-050B, the upper stage of the Long March 3C rocket that launched the Chinese Lunar mission Chang'e 2 in October 2010. This upper stage is moving in a trans-Lunar orbit, with apogee up to almost two Lunar distances away from Earth. The rocket stage is 12.4 by 3 meters large.

Yesterday May 10, I obtained new images of the object, using the 0.61-m Cassegrain telescope of Sierra Stars Observatory in California, USA. Above is an animated GIF of the images. My resulting astrometric data are here.

The object was near mag. +15.3, at a distance of almost 518 800 km at that time. For a comparison: the distance to earth of the moon varies between about 356 400 and 406 700 km. It is quite cool to image space junk at this large a distance!

Click image to enlarge

Using my May 10 observations combined with the May 7 observations by the Catalina Sky Survey (MPC 703) and Peter Starr in Warrumbungle (MPC Q65), I compute the following orbit for the object:

Orbital elements: 2010-050B Chang'e 2 r/b

Perigee 2015 May 22.689019 +/- 0.00747 TT 
= 16:32:11 (JD 2457165.189019) 
Epoch 2015 May 7.0 TT = JDT 2457149.5       Find_Orb 

M 198.75910 +/- 0.037        
n 10.27730942 +/- 0.00562

a 452220.817 +/- 165 km    Peri. 151.22410 +/- 0.028 
e 0.2197903 +/- 0.000308   Node 226.29285 +/- 0.00006
i 41.13389 +/- 0.00028 
  
q 352827.032 +/- 267 km    Q 551614.602 +/-  68 km       
P 35.03 d        H 28.1 

From 23 observations 2015 May 7-10; mean residual 0".307.

In TLE form:

Chang'e 2 r/b                                 352827 x 551615 km 
1 00000U         15127.00000000  .00000000  00000-0 00000-0 0 09
2 00000 41.1326 226.5090 2163618 150.9650 199.0248 0.02835833 01

For those people with access to a  sufficiently large instrument that want to try it themselves: efemerids for the object can be obtained here.

I plan to include this object in my periodic observations of distant satellites.

An 'asteroid' that wasn't: the Chinese Chang'e 2 upper stage (2010-050B) imaged at almost twice the Lunar distance

WJ297AD = Chang'e 2 r/b. Images (c) Peter Starr, Australia

On 7 May 2015 near 7:35 UT, the Catalina Sky Survey (MPC 703) in Arizona detected a bright mag. +17  fast moving object moving at about 12"/minute through Virgo. The object was reported as a potential Near Earth Asteroid and entered the NEO Confirmation Page (NEOCP) of the IAU's Minor Planet Center with temporary NEOCP designation WJ297AD.

Some 6 hours later, Peter Starr at Warrumbungle Observatory (MPC Q65) in Australia targetted the object with his 0.51-m Dall-Kirkham telescope, in order to confirm it and obtain more positions.

As he often does with NEOCP objects he images, Peter sent the imagery to me for astrometric processing.

image (c) Peter Starr. Click image to enlarge

After I measured the images (a part of one is shown above, showing the object as a short trail amidst the stars) and tried to fit an orbit to the astrometry obtained from Peter's images and the Catalina Sky Survey observations, the result was odd.

FindOrb suggested that this object was in orbit around the Earth, in a trans-lunar orbit with perigeum at  352 666 +/- 426 km, apogeum at 552 356 +/- 934 km, an orbital inclination of 41 degrees and an orbital period around the Earth of 35 days! The MPC itself, fitting several preliminary orbits, also presented solutions pointing to an object in an odd, very earth-like orbit with semi-major axis about 1.05 AU and a heliocentric orbital period of ~1.0 year.

At that time, after an initial "Huh? That's odd..." I already developed some feeling that this might perhaps be an artificial object, if this fit was not spurious. I was not sure though (preliminary orbit fits to small observational arcs can come out weird on occasion), so I sent Peter an e-mail mentioning that it was a "weird object that seems to be in a very Earth-like orbit".

Meanwhile, another asteroid observer, Jacques Cristovao, also thought that this NEOCP object was odd. Around the time Peter was doing his observations from Warrumbungle, Cristovao suggested in a message on the Minor Planet Mailing List that the object was artificial, and specifically was 2010-050B, the upper stage of the Chinese Chang'e 2 Lunar probe.

That turned out to be correct: WJ297AD indeed is the rocket stage from this launch.

This rocket stage moves in a very wide translunar orbit with perigeum close to one lunar distance, and apogeum at almost twice the Earth-Moon distance. At the time of the observations it was near apogee at a distance of about 535 500 km, well beyond the moon at almost twice the Earth-Moon distance.

Chang'e 2 orbit in the Earth-Moon system (based on May 7 observations)

The rocket stage was used to bring the second Chinese Lunar mission, Chang'e 2, into a temporary orbit around the moon. Chang'e 2 itself later left the Earth-Moon system for a journey to asteroid Toutatis, but the rocket stage it left behind is still in orbit around the Earth-Moon barycenter.

It was not the first time that the Chang'e 2 rocket  was initially confused with a Near Earth Asteroid. The same happened in 2013 when the rocket was briefly known as 'asteroid' 2013 QW1.

These days, even the asteroids are Made in China....