Showing posts with label NROL-71. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NROL-71. Show all posts

Wednesday, 13 February 2019

USA 290 (NROL-71)

click image to enlarge

The photograph above is not the best of images, but it does show the trail (faint) of  USA 290, the payload of the January 19 NROL-71 launch from Vandenberg. I shot it last Monday morning, February 11th.

I wrote about this odd launch earlier (here). Before the launch, it was widely suspected that this was a new electro-optical reconnaissance satellite, a block V KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL ("Keyhole"). So we expected it to go in a 98-degree inclined, ~1000 x 265 km sun-synchronous orbit, the orbit typical for new primary plane additions to the KH-11 constellation.

But then the Maritime Broadcast Warnings for the launch came out, and it became clear that the splashdown and deorbit zones did not fit a launch azimuth consistent with such an orbit (see a previous post where this was discussed). Instead, it suggested a 74-degree inclined, 265 x 455 km non-sunsynchronous orbit. Which was very odd, as it was completely against expectations for a new KH-11.


click map to enlarge

The launch was postponed several times, but finally happened on 19 January, a month later than it was originally slated. The launch postponements added a new mystery: the shifting launch window times with each postponement suggested a particular orbital plane with a nodal precession of -2.27 deg/day was aimed for.

The question was: why, if  NROL-71 was going into a 74-degree inclined orbit? Targetting a specific orbital plane only makes sense when the payload is part of a constellation of satellites. But NROL-71 was not targetting the orbital inclination of the existing KH-11 constellation (currently consisting of USA 186, USA 224, USA 245). And it's orbit is (as we will see) not sun-synchronous. It is very odd (and does suggest there will be future objects going into a similar orbit).

After launch on 19:10 UT on January 19th, 2019, there initially was no optical visibility as nighttime passes in the Northern hemisphere were in earth shadow.

But radio observers (a.o. Sven Grahn, Scott Tilley, Cees Bassa, Nico Jansen) quickly picked up the radiosignals of the payload at 2242.5 MHz. These showed that the payload was in a 73.6 degree inclined non-sunsynchronous ~400 km Low Earth Orbit, much as we had gleaned pre-launch from the hazard zones in the Maritime Broadcast Warnings.

As USA 290 slowly emerged from Earth shadow passes, the first optical observations were made by Russell Eberst in Scotland in the morning of 1 February. Next Leo Barhorst in the Netherlands soon followed.

These initial passes were very low in the sky, too low for my urban environment where I need elevations above 20-25 degrees to clear the rooftops. And when as February progressed the passes gradually climbed higher in the sky for my location, weather was not cooperating.

But in the morning of 11 February I finally had a clear sky, and managed to image USA 290, photographically as well as on video. As the illumination angle was not the best, the payload stayed a bit faint, but still was bright enough to register as a faint trail on the photograph (the bright star near the trail is gamma Cygni. Image taken with a Canon EOS 60D + EF 2.0/35 mm lens):


click image to enlarge

The object showed up well on the video (WATEC 902H + Canon FD 1.8/50 mm lens), yielding good astrometry:




The optical observations helped to better define the orbit. They show USA 290 is in a 393 x 422 km, 73.6 degree inclined, non-sunsynchronous orbit.

Apart from abandoning the 97.9 degree inclined sun-synchronous orbit of the primary plane KH-11's, it also abandoned the 1000 x 260 km orbital altitude that was previously typical for new primary plane launches. The orbital altitude is closer to the extended mission, secondary plane KH-11's, the sole representative of which (USA186) currently is in a 262 x 452 km orbit.

Of course, in terms of orbital inclination and nodal precession (the non-sunsynchronous character) it doesn't compare to any of the previous KH-11.

(Note: a few year ago I wrote a series of detailed posts analysing the orbital constellation of the KH-11, and the typical changes in orbital plane and orbital altitude when a new addition to the constellation was launched: see the posts here and here).


click to enlarge
click to enlarge
click to enlarge

So, there is something new under the sun, in more than one way. While the general consensus still is that USA 290 is an electro-optical bird in the ADVANCED CRYSTAL lineage, the radical break with previous orbital structures for this series of satellites is highly interesting. It will be interesting to follow this new object, and see how things develop with future launches.

Over the last two years, the black space program in Low Earth Orbit has become much more exciting, with some new eyebrow-raising additions unlike any previous missions. Examples are USA 276, the failed Zuma launch, and now USA 290, all launches from the past 1.5 years.

I like it: just when we thought things were getting perhaps a tad predictable, we are suddenly treated to a number of surprises, resulting in new stuff to ponder and analyse.

Monday, 17 December 2018

NROL-71: an enigmatic launch [UPDATED]

(this post on NROL-71 is belated, as I was in hospital around the original launch date. Luckily, launch got postponed)

click map to enlarge

If nothing ontowards happens, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) will launch NROL-71, a Delta IV-Heavy with a classified payload, from Vandenberg SLC-6 on 19 December 2018 (18 December local time). [edit:] after the December 19 launch was scrubbed, a new launch attempt will take place on December 20 (December 19 local time in the USA). The December 20 launch was scrubbed as well due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date is 21 December 2018 (December 20 local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT.

The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

The launch was postponed three times. Originally to be launched on December 8, a communications problem aborted that launch. A renewed launch attempt the next day, was aborted only 7.5 seconds before lift-off because of a technical issue (see the video below).




A new launch attempt will take place on 19 December 2018 at 1:57 UT. As weather prospects at the moment do not look particularly good for that date, it is possible that the launch will see even further postponement. [edit:] This assessment turned out to be right: the launch was postponed due to high altitude winds. A new launch date has been set for 20 December 2018 at 1:44 UT. The December 20 launch was also aborted, due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date has been set for 21 December (20 December local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT. The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

NROL-71 is an odd launch. When the Maritime Broadcast Warnings for the launch came out and revealed the launch hazard areas, they contained a big surprise. The general expectation among analysts was that NROL-71 was the first of the Block V new generation KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL electro-optical reconnaissance satellites. As such we expected it to go in a sun-synchronous, 97.9 degree inclined, 265 x 1000 km orbit.

But the Maritime Broadcast Warnings suggest this is NOT the case. The hazard areas are incompatible with such a sun-synchronous polar orbit. Instead, they point to a (non-sunsynchronous!) 74-75 degree inclined orbit. Not what you expect for an optical reconnaissance satellite!

The map below shows the three hazard zones. Two are directly downrange from the launch site, where the strap-on boosters and first stage splash down. The third area is the upper stage deorbit area (which is remarkably small in size), located northeast of Hawaii, with deorbit occuring near the end of the first revolution (as usual).

click map to enlarge

The trajectory depicted by the dashed line on the map is for a 74-degree inclined, 265 x 455 km orbit. Higher inclined orbits would miss the downrange splashdown zones and the upper stage deorbit area.

Ted Molczan has pointed out that the shift in launch time with each launch delay, points to a specific orbital plane and a specific aim for the rate of precession of the RAAN of -2.27 deg/day.

This is over twice as fast as the RAAN precession of the KH-11 currently in orbit (0.98 deg/day, i.e. sun-synchronous).

This value for the RAAN precession apparently aimed for, puts further constraints on the orbit as in combination with the 74-degree inclination deduced from the location of the Launch Hazard areas it points to a semi-major axis of about 6735 km.

Going from the notion of KH-11-like orbital altitudes, the current typical KH-11 perigee near 265 km would then result in an apogee near 455 km. This is somewhat similar to the orbital altitude of the oldest of the KH-11 on orbit, USA 186 in the secondary West plane, which was in a 262 x 443 km orbit when we last observed it early October (it currently is invisible due to the winter blackout). This apogee would be much lower than that of the two KH-11 payloads in the primary planes, which have apogee near 1000 km, i.e. twice as high, another deviation from expectations. Normally, KH-11 are launched into a primary plane and about 265 x 1000 km orbit, and only after some years, when the payload is moved to a secondary plane (and a new payload is launched into the primary plane), is apogee lowered to ~450 km (see an earlier post here).

So, if NROL-71 is a new electro-optical reconnaissance satellite in the KH-11 series, it represents a serious deviation from past KH-11 missions. The apparent abandoning of a sun-synchronous polar orbit, is surprising, as such orbits are almost synonymous with Earth Reconnaissance. The "why" of a 74-degree orbit is mystifying too. If it does go into a 74-degree inclined orbit, it doesn't seem to be a "Multi-Sun-Synchonous-Orbit".

Alternatives have been proposed. Ted Molczan has for example suggested that, perhaps, NROL-71 could be a reincarnation of the Misty stealth satellites, warning that the unexpected orbital inclination for NROL-71 might not be the only surprise.

I myself was struck by the fact that 74-degree orbital inclination is the prograde complementary of the retrograde 106 degree inclination of the FIA Radar/TOPAZ 6 payload (USA 281,  2018-005A) launched early this year: note that 180-106 = 74. FIA Radar 6 was the first in a new block of TOPAZ radar payloads, just like NROL-71 appears to be the first in a new block of  'something'.

The previous four FIA Radars, launched into 123-degree inclined orbits, were the retrograde complementary in inclination of the prograde 57-degree Lacrosse 5 orbit, another radar satellite. The complementary character of 106-degree versus 74-degree for NROL-71, could perhaps point to NROL-71 being a Lacrosse Follow-On, as a complementary to the newest FIA block.

If NROL-71 is a Lacrosse Follow-On, its orbital altitude and brightness behavious might yield clues: Lacrosse 5 has shown a very distinct brightness behaviour.

It will be very interesting to chase this launch. If launch occurs on 19 December near 1:57 UT and weather cooperates, Europe will have visible evening twilight passes in the first few days.

Below are a couple of search orbits. All are for an assumed 74-degree orbital inclination and launch on 19 December at 1:57 UT. The first three are for KH-11 like orbital altitudes. The fourth is for a Lacrosse-like orbital altitude.

Orbit #70003 fits the hazard areas from the Maritime Broadcast Warnings best.

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 19 Dec 20918 1:44 UT

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 21 Dec 2018 1:31 UT]



NROL-71                                                 265 x 1000 km
1 70001U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70001 074.0000 184.7636 0524203 155.2439 326.4145 14.78994708    03


NROL-71                                                  265 x 500 km
1 70002U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
2 70002 074.0000 184.7636 0173800 155.2439 324.5345 15.61785606    06


NROL-71                                                  265 x 455 km
1 70003U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
2 70003 074.0000 184.7636 0140989 155.2439 324.3567 15.69614809    07


NROL-71                                                  715 x 725 km
1 70004U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70004 074.0000 184.8196 0007044 155.2265 327.0336 14.51731413    06




Note that deviations of many minutes in pass time and several degrees deviation in cross-track are possible on all four orbits, certainly several revolutions after launch.