Update to my previous post: Space-Track (SSC) finally released a new elset, 11294.85810509, which is still and "old" elset (almost a day old). And they released a new TIP with a new reentry prediction.
The new TIP gives this prediction:
Space-Track (SSC): 23 Oct, 02:34 UTC +/- 7 hrs
Based on the new TLE, independant analyst Harro Zimmer now provides the following prediction:
Harro Zimmer: 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC +/- 4 hrs
Other independant analysts have not updated yet (see my previous post for these values). I did a run of SatEvo with the newly released TLE and the current F10.7 cm solar flux, and get, for what it's worth, a projected time of 10:20 UTC (23 Oct) +/- 5 hrs. That seems a bit late compared to the SSC and Zimmer estimates (although the uncertainty windows of course overlap).
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