Saturday, October 22, 2011

ROSAT reentry update

New independent updates on the projected moment of the ROSAT reentry are hampered by the fact that no new orbital elements have been released for 1.5 days now - the last elset released being elset 11294.06213865 (epoch time 21 Oct 01:29:29 UTC) as of this moment (22 Oct 12:10 UTC).

Meanwhile, here is a summary of the latest available predictions at this moment of writing:
Space-Track (SSC): 23 Oct, 01:31 UTC  +/- 14 hrs
Aerospace Corp: 23 Oct, 13:24 UTC +/- 16 hrs
Harro Zimmer: 23 Oct, 05:33 UTC +/- 6 hrs
Ted Molczan (using SatEvo): 23 Oct, 05:00 +/- 10 hrs
T.S. Kelso: 23 Oct, 03:15 UTC (uncertainty not listed)
DLR: 23 Oct, ~3h UTC +/- 9hrs (midtime from window given)

The FAA has realeased a NOTAM warning for the reentry:

!FDC 1/9172 FDC SPECIAL NOTICE .. ..........EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL 1110252359 UTC. AIRCRAFT ARE ADVISED THAT A POTENTIAL HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO REENTRY OF THE SATELLITE ROSAT INTO THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) IS WORKING WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD) AND THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA) TO ENSURE THAT THE MOST CURRENT RE-ENTRY INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO OPERATORS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NOTAMS WILL BE ISSUED IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE INDICATING A UNITED STATES (US) AIRSPACE IMPACT. IN THE INTEREST OF FLIGHT SAFETY, IT IS CRITICAL THAT ALL PILOTS/FLIGHT CREW MEMBERS REPORT ANY OBSERVED FALLING SPACE DEBRIS TO THE APPROPRIATE ATC FACILITY AND INCLUDE POSITION, ALTITUDE, TIME, AND DIRECTION OF DEBRIS OBSERVED. THE DOMESTIC EVENTS NETWORK /DEN/ TELEPHONE 202-493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION FACILITY

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