The reentry of the second stage of LauncherOne "Start me Up" seen from Lanzarote

(footage by Ramón López,SPMN Lanzarote)

The footage above was filmed last night near 23:19 UTC (Jan 9) by one of the Spanish SPMN's meteor stations, that of Ramón López ("Stargazer Lanzarote") at Playa Blanca, on the island of Lanzarote in the Canary Islands,

It shows the sad ending of Virgin Orbit's failed "Start Me Up" launch (see my previous post). The moving object that can be seen burning up in the atmosphere in the left corner, is in fact the reentry of the NewtonFour upper stage from the LauncherOne rocket. This happened some 10 minutes after launch.

Below is a stack of the video frames (from the original video, kindly made available to me by the SPMN):

 

click to enlarge

The timing, viewing direction (W-NW), and direction of movement match well with the launch trajectory for the "Start me Up" mission, which passed about 380 km to the west of Lanzarote. 

The low sky elevation also shows that the object is in fact well below orbital altitude, consistent with reentry into the atmosphere. Had it been in the 555 km altitude orbit aimed for, it would have passed much higher in the sky as seen from Lanzarote, and been invisible, as that part of the orbit was not sun-illuminated. The fact that it is visible, alreadsy shows it was burning up by this time, creating the slow fireball visible in the video.

The event is too far south in latitude to be the first stage, which had a designated splash-down area some 400 km out of the coast of Portugal, 1000 km to the north of Lanzarote. 

Hence, it must be the second stage and attached payloads. The event starts around the time the last engine burn should have ended: the launch, at 10.6 km altitude just southwest or Ireland, was at 23:09 UT and the engine burns of both stages in total should have taken 9 minutes.

So, from the available evidence it looks like the second stage of the rocket underperformed. The fact that it reentered 1000 km to the south of the splashdown area for the first stage to me however suggests that it did initially fire.

As a result of the underperformance, the nature of which still has to be established, the rocket did not gain sufficient speed to bring the payloads to orbit: instead, after briefly reaching Space it went down again on a ballistic trajectory, reentering and disintegrating into the atmosphere - along with the payloads - some 500 or so km to the northwest of Lanzarote, roughly in the area indicated by the yellow ellipse in the map below.

 

click map to enlarge

The bearing of the point where the fireball disappears in the video, crosses the launch trajectory near 30.03 N, 17.28 W, some 360 km West-Noordwest of Lanzarote about halfway between the islands Madeira and La Palma.

The rocket stage and payloads most likely will have completely burned up during the reentry. If any parts survived at all, they are now on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

Virgin Orbit itself also points the finger to the second stage as the culprit of the failure to reach orbit.

 

UPDATE (12 Jan 2023):  according to Virgin Orbit, the cause of the failure was indeed a premature shutdown of the second stage. It happened during the first of two planned burns of this stage, at an altitude of 180 km.

A first launch to orbit from Northwest Europe on January 9 [UPDATED]

click image to enlarge

 

If there are no launch delays, Virgin Orbit will conduct the first ever launch to orbit from Northwest Europe on January 9.

Dubbed "Start Me Up", the launch will be carried out above the Atlantic just southwest or Ireland. The two-hour launch window opens at 22:16 UTC (23:16 CET) on January 9, 2023.

The launch is airborne, and the launch vehicle is a LauncherOne rocket carried by the Boeing 747-400 'Cosmic Girl' , which will depart from Spaceport Cornwall in Newquay, UK and then fly to the launch zone southwest of Ireland.

The launch will be into a ~97.6 degree inclined, ~550 km Sun-Synchronous orbit. I estimate this approximate initial orbit:

START ME UP                      for launch on 9 Jan 2023 22:16:00 UT
1 70000U 23999A   23009.92777778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70000 097.6000 244.4122 0003607 140.5188 325.8313 15.04676410    02

[Note added: it appears that the 22:16 UTC time is actually the time the aircraft departs from Spaceport Cornwall. Launch will be about an hour later. The elset above can be adjusted to the actual launch time using my TLEfromProxy software]

The map below shows the launch trajectory, and the two hazard zones published for this launch (Maritime Navigational Warnings HYDROLANT 33/23 and HYDROLANT 37/23). The first stage will splash down some 400 km out of the coast of Portugal. 

click map to enlarge

Unfortunately, a launch at this time of the night in this season means that the initial launch trajectory will not be sun-illuminated, which in turn means that any exhaust clouds produced will not be visible in the sky.

However, for the duration of the engine burns itself, the rocket might be visible on ascend to orbit as a moving dot of light (disappearing as soon as the rocket engines cut off, some 9 minutes after launch). 

Southwest Ireland, being closest to the launch area, has the best viewing opportunity: the rocket will move from the southwest to south-southwest, roughly between azimuth 240 and 200 degrees, and reach a maximum sky elevation of about 35 degrees near azimuth 220 degrees (southwest), based on an estimate of the launch trajectory.

The rocket engine burn might also be visible from the southwest of the UK (particularly Wales and Cornwall) and the Atlantic coast of France (Bretagne), as well as NW Spain and Portugal. I have no idea how bright it may be though, i.e. I have no idea whether it will or will not be visible by the naked eye.

From Cornwall it might reach a maximum elevation of  25-30 degrees in the SW, and from Bretagne in France some 20 degrees due West. From NW Spain, the rocket might rise up to almost 50 degrees maximum elevation due West before burning out.

From the Netherlands, where I live, the launch in theory could be visible, but the rocket will stay below 12 degrees maximum sky elevation.  

Below is a diagram of the approximate trajectory I predict as seen from the SW Dutch coast (Zeeland Province, some 1000+ km from the launch area): times given are in minutes after launch.

click diagram to enlarge

 

"Start Me Up" will launch seven nine  eight payloads, including several payloads for the UK Ministry of Defense. Virgin Orbit has conducted two four earlier successfull launches so far.

click map to enlarge

UPDATE:

The launch happened at 23:09 UTC but unfortunately failed to reach orbit because of an anomaly with the second stage. For more information, including a video of the reentry as observed from Lanzarote in the Canaray Islands, see this follow-up post.

Imaging objects from the 'Tubular Bells' launch

image: Virgin Orbit

During the first days of July, I have tried to image objects from the June 30 Virgin Orbit 'Tubular Bells' launch, that launched a number of smallsats including Brik-II, the first Dutch military satellite (see earlier posts here and here).

I so far managed to unambiguously image three objects from the launch. One of these is probably the LauncherOne upper stage, the other two must be payloads.

On July 2nd, I imaged objects A and B, A using a 2.0/135 mm and B using a 1.4/85 mm lens on the WATEC 902H2 Supreme low light level video camera. B was very faint and barely visible.

On July 4th, I unambiguously imaged objects B and H using a 2.0/135 mm lens.

Object A is relatively bright and well ahead of the other objects. It is in a somewhat lower orbit: a 418 x 504 km orbit, whereas the other objects are in a 496 x 522 km orbit. So object 2021-058A almost certainly is the LauncherOne upper stage.

Below is video of the A-object, shot on July 2nd with the 2.0/135 mm lens. The bright star top left is Polaris. I could not see the other objects (passing about 30 minutes later): for passes to the north of me, the illumination angle is less favourable than for passes to the south of me.

 

The B and H objects are fainter, and only visible during passes to the south of me. The video below shows them, faint but unmistakenly, during a pass in evening twilight on July 4th (sun at only 7 degrees below the horizon, so the sky background was still quite bright).

 

A fourth object, Object C, was possibly seen on July 2nd when I watched the pass live on screen, but I could not see it anymore when inspecting the footage afterwards. 

Objects D, E, F and G were not seen, but on all imaged passes observing conditions were not perfect (on July 2, cirrus clouds were invading the FOV around the time of the objects D, E, F and G passing; while on July 4th the sky background was still very bright).

It is not clear which object is which at the moment, although I have reasons to believe that Brik-II must be either object D, E or F. I have some suspicion that objects B and H are part of STP27-VPA. [edit: see updates below: Object H was, but B is not).

UPDATE:

I obtained even better imagery of the two STORK objects (B and C) on July 17:

 

UPDATE 14 Jul 2021:

Object B actually appears to be one of the STORK satellites, based on Dopplerfitting of  radiosignals received at 401.1 MHz (and first detected by Alicja Musial in Poland). Object C also appears to be a STORK, based on Doppler fitting of the radio signal.. 

Objects D and E are now listed by CSpOC as CNCE3 and CNCE1, which are part of STP27-VPA.

Objects F, G and H then are Brik-II, Gunsmoke-J and Halo-NET (the latter two are part of STP27-VPA), with not certain which is which.

UPDATE 16 Jul 2021

Object F is now identified as Brik-II. Object H (One of the two objects I imaged on July 4) is now identified as Gunsmoke-J 2. 

As, from radio Doppler fitting, we know objects B and C are the STORKS (not yet identified as such by CSpOC), this means object G must be Halo-NET:

Object A    LauncherOne rb

Object B    Stork

Object C    Stork

Object D    CNCE3*

Object E    CNCE1*

Object F    Brik-II

Object G   Halo-NET*

Object H    Gunsmone-J 2*

* part of STP27-VPA

Bob Christy has pointed out that there might be a swap of the A and G designation in the future, to make the A designation a payload rather than the RB.

Navigational Warnings have appeared for the launch of the first Dutch military satellite, Brik-II [UPDATED]

 

artist impression of Brik-II in space (The Netherlands Ministry of Defense)

It was originally scheduled for launch in 2019, and postponed several times. But it now seems it will finally happen, on or near June 30: the launch of the Netherlands' first own military satellite, a 6U cubesat named 'Brik-II'.

The ministry of Defense of the Netherlands is partner in several already launched military satellites, but this will be the first satellite that is truely it's own. 

Brik-II was built by the Dutch aerospace company ISISPACE in cooperation with Delft Technical University, Oslo University and NLR and will be operated by the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF).

It is a small 6U cubesat (10 x 20 x 30 cm, weighing 10 kg) that contains equipment for communications relay, for Space Weather monitoring, and for ELINT (see my earlier post on Brik-II here).

 

image: The Netherlands Ministry. of Defense

 

Brik-II will be launched by Virgin Orbit as part of their  'Tubular Bells, part 1' mission that launches a number of small payloads: apart from Brik-II for the RNLAF, it will launch three or four (sources differ on the number [edit July 1: it were four payloads]) payloads for the US Dept. of Defense, and two payloads for the SatRevolution company.

The launch is an airborne launch, using a two-stage LauncherOne rocket launched from the Virgin Orbit Boeing 737 747-400 'Cosmic Girl' in front of the California coast.

images: Virgin Orbit

The launch was postponed several times, including this month, but Navigational Warnings have now appeared indicating an aimed launch date of 30 June (with backup dates July 1-5). 

The 3-hour launch window runs from 13:00-16:00 UT [edit: launch eventually was at 14:47 UT]. According to Virgin Orbit, the orbit aimed for is a 60-degree inclined circular orbit at ~500 km altitude. [edit] An infographic by the Royal Dutch Air Force mentions an orbital inclination of 60.7 degrees.

This is the navigational warning, NAVAREA XII 292/21:

 262041Z JUN 21
 NAVAREA XII 292/21(18,21).
 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
 CALIFORNIA.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
    301300Z TO 301600 JUN, ALTERNATE
    1300Z TO 1600Z DAILY 01 THRU 05 JUL
    IN AREAS BOUND BY:
    A. 33-36-44N 120-23-05W, 33-24-22N 120-17-14W,
       32-55-44N 119-55-39W, 30-38-19N 118-13-14W,
       28-24-39N 116-37-52W, 28-03-32N 116-17-09W,
       28-10-00N 116-05-44W, 28-24-41N 116-11-12W,
       29-07-31N 116-36-05W, 30-50-51N 117-46-19W,
       33-08-50N 119-32-16W, 33-33-26N 119-54-35W,
       33-45-27N 120-06-00W, 33-43-27N 120-16-02W,
       33-36-44N 120-23-05W.
    B. 23-13-25N 112-20-09W, 23-51-12N 113-00-01W,
       24-04-05N 113-17-34W, 24-00-35N 113-35-42W,
       23-49-04N 113-49-26W, 23-23-22N 113-46-59W,
       22-46-17N 113-39-25W, 22-01-49N 113-03-13W,
       21-54-11N 112-57-20W, 21-46-52N 112-49-48W,
       21-41-03N 112-38-21W, 21-40-45N 112-26-55W,
       21-44-25N 112-12-12W, 21-52-03N 112-03-22W,
       22-03-39N 111-58-08W, 22-13-42N 111-57-29W,
       22-26-28N 112-02-59W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 051700Z JUL 21.

I have plotted the two areas on the map below, along with the trajectory for a 60-degree inclined ~500 km orbit, with times along the trajectory valid for launch at 13:00 UT, the start of the window (it will, however, probably launch a little after that: the second map is for a 60.7 degree inclined orbit and denotes times in minutes after launch):

click map to enlarge

click map to enlarge

While Virgin Orbit mentions a 500 km target orbit for 'Tubular Bells', earlier news reports on Brik-II mentioned a 600-700 km orbital altitude.

Brik-II is named for an earlier 'Brik', the name of the very first aircraft of the RNLAF progenitor, the 'Luchtvaartafdeeling', 108 years ago, in 1913:

The first Brik, photographed in 1916. Photo: Netherlands Institute for Military History

 

"Brik" has several meanings in Dutch. Originally it was a name for a type of ship (equivalent to the English 'Brig'), and it was also used for carts. Later, it became a name for old bicycles and old, decrepit  cars. "Brik" in addition is one of several Dutch names for a brick, hence the mission patch for Brik-II:

Brik-II mission patch (collection author)

Update 1 July 2021:

CSpOC TLE's have appeared on Space-Track for 8 objects from the launch: the seven payloads and the LauncherOne upper stage. They have catalogue numbers 48871 to 48878. The first object, 48871, is in a lower orbit  of 418 x 504 km and almost certainly the LauncherOne upper stage. The seven others are close together in higher, approximately 495 x 522 km orbits, inclined between 60.66 to 60.70 degrees.

Of these objects, either object D, E, or F (catalogue nrs. 48874, 48875, 48876) appears to be Brik-II.

My pre-launch estimate for the orbit appears to have a quite reasonable agreement with the eventual orbits for these objects (the green arrow and object in the images below indicates my pre-launch estimate. the plot is for 1 July 6:35 UT,  about 16 hours after launch):

click images to enlarge