The STARSHIP inaugural launch is near! [UPDATED]

Launch trajectory. Click image to enlarge

UPDATE 7 April 2023: New Navigational Warnings have been published which indicate that the launch date is being pushed back to the second half of April. The new Navigational Warnings are for April 17-21.

UPDATE 15 April 2023:  The 2.5 hour launch window opens 17 April 12:00 UTC

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(this blogpost has been updated several times)

Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA IV 372/23 and NAVAREA XII 176/23) were published today for the long awaited inaugural launch of SpaceX's STARSHIP, the vehicle that one day should bring people to the Moon and Mars.

The Navigational Warnings fit an orbit with an orbital inclination of about 26.36 degrees. The resulting trajectory is visualised in the map above (numbers next to the trajectory represent the approximate elapsed time, in minutes, after launch). 

Launch is from Starbase Texas, and just short of one full revolution after launch (i.e., strictly speaking this is a suborbital flight), Starship will splash down in the Pacific Ocean in the Pacific Missile Range north of Hawaii.

The estimated TLE below is for launch on April 6 at 11:25 UTC:

STARSHIP                      for launch on 6 April 2023 11:25:00 UTC
1 70002U 23999A   23096.47569444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
2 70002 026.3626 168.8581 0338186 110.5558 323.6714 15.99790612    02

The estimated TLE below is for launch on April 17 at 12:00 UTC:

STARSHIP                     for launch on 17 April 2023 12:00:00 UTC
1 70000U 23999A   23107.50000000  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70000 026.3800 188.2482 0141857 110.7597 322.5585 16.48799354    03

If the launch actually is on another date/time, you can adjust the TLE to the new date/time with my program "TLEfromProxy".

If launch is near 12:00 UTC on April 17, there are no visible passes (except for a very desolate part of the Indian Ocean). However: the reentry fireball is likely visible from Hawaii.

The window of the Navigational Warnings runs from April 6 to April 12, 11:25 to 17:10 UTC daily. April 17 to April 21, 11:25 to 17:10 UTC daily. The text of the original Navigational Warnings is below (the Warnings for April 17 are identical in geographic locations):

 

250611Z MAR 23
NAVAREA IV 372/23(11,28).
GULF OF MEXICO.
TEXAS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   1125Z TO 1710Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,
   26-06.00N 096-46.00W, 26-05.00N 095-44.00W,
   25-57.00N 093-13.00W, 25-43.00N 092-44.00W,
   25-33.00N 092-44.00W, 25-32.00N 093-07.00W,
   25-47.00N 095-14.00W, 25-52.00N 096-17.00W,
   25-53.00N 096-46.00W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   1255Z TO 1710Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,
   26-03.00N 097-07.00W, 26-07.00N 096-59.00W,
   26-10.00N 096-49.00W, 26-32.00N 096-25.00W,
   26-42.00N 095-34.00W, 26-42.00N 092-53.00W,
   26-08.00N 091-05.00W, 25-32.00N 090-24.00W,
   24-37.00N 084-52.00W, 24-30.00N 084-52.00W,
   25-09.00N 090-30.00W, 24-55.00N 091-06.00W,
   25-09.00N 092-53.00W, 25-14.00N 093-53.00W,
   24-58.00N 094-40.00W, 25-12.00N 096-10.00W,
   25-54.00N 097-04.00W
2.CANCEL THIS MSG 121810Z APR 23.//

 

291338Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 176/23(GEN).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII TO MARSHALL ISLANDS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   1125Z TO 1850Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   23-49.00N 157-42.00W, 23-30.00N 157-37.00W,
   23-40.00N 156-57.00W, 23-58.00N 157-03.00W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   1255Z TO 1850Z DAILY 06 THRU 12 APR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-09.00N 167-02.00W, 19-50.00N 174-26.00W,
   18-19.00N 179-59.90W, 15-00.00N 173-24.00E,
   11-44.00N 167-39.00E, 11-18.00N 167-54.00E,
   13-44.00N 174-11.00E, 16-08.00N 179-30.00W,
   18-10.00N 173-45.00W, 20-13.00N 167-33.00W,
   21-52.00N 162-27.00W, 22-26.00N 160-32.00W,
   23-04.00N 157-57.00W, 23-36.00N 155-42.00W,
   24-05.00N 154-01.00W, 24-24.00N 153-16.00W,
   24-43.00N 152-44.00W, 24-49.00N 152-48.00W,
   24-41.00N 154-58.00W, 24-08.00N 158-18.00W,
   23-21.00N 162-33.00W.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 121950Z APR 23.//

Inaugural launches tend to slip, so it is well possible that the launch evetually will postpone to after April 12. But you never know! 

EDIT: and this happened. launch currently slaterd for April 17, see edarloier in this several times updated blogpost.