An upcoming French SLBM test in the Atlantic [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

Spring has arrived, and this spring the fledgeling missiles fly, as I already noted in a previous post. 

And now the French join in this springtime Missile Mêlée too: two Navigational Warnings have appeared (HYDROLANT 759/23 and NAVAREA IV 396/23) that indicate a French Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) test for the period 14 April - 7 May, 2023.

I have mapped the hazard areas from the two Navigational Warnings (text below) in the map above.

 

070934Z APR 23
HYDROLANT 759/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
CELTIC SEA.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08, DNC 19.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0030Z TO 1000Z DAILY 14 APR THRU 07 MAY
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 47-39.00N 004-01.00W, 47-48.71N 004-31.00W,
      47-44.70N 005-23.50W, 47-16.46N 005-17.68W,
      47-24.00N 004-11.00W.
   B. 47-44.70N 005-23.50W, 47-35.30N 007-15.13W,
      47-04.30N 007-08.53W, 47-16.46N 005-17.68W.
   C. 47-35.30N 007-15.13W, 47-29.72N 008-09.53W,
      46-58.78N 008-02.44W, 47-04.30N 007-08.53W.
   D. 48-04.60N 008-59.32W, 47-46.75N 011-31.33W,
      46-00.58N 011-02.17W, 46-17.87N 008-34.97W.
   E. 45-25.54N 025-00.90W, 44-55.65N 027-03.41W,
      43-42.92N 026-27.47W, 44-12.20N 024-27.20W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 071100Z MAY 23.


070934Z APR 23
NAVAREA IV 396/23(14,51).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0030Z TO 1000Z DAILY 14 APR THRU 07 MAY
   IN AREA WITHIN 150 MILES OF 37-35.15N 045-40.37W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 071100Z MAY 23.

 

The missile is likely an M51, and will be launched from a French submarine south of the Breton coast. The target area is in the mid-Atlantic, near 37.6 N, 45.7 W. The indicated range is about 3500 km. 

A previous test three years ago, on 12 June 2020, had over 1.5 times that range. So this test either has a more significant payload (e.g. multiple MIRV's or heavier warhead(s)), or uses reduced power in the first stage, or (less likely, also looking at the locations of the hazard areas) is a highly lofted test for some reason.

The target area in the mid-Atlantic is about 1.6 times bigger than it was with the 2020 test (300 Nautical mile wide now, versus 184 Nautical mile wide in 2020) even though the range is ~1.6 times shorter, which might perhaps indicate multiple warheads (MIRV).

The map below compares the 12 June 2020 test (red) to the upcoming test (blue):

click map to enlarge

UPDATE 19 April 2023:

Tweets by the French Navy and the French Minister of Defense on April 19 confirm a successful test firing of an M51 SLBM from the submarine Le Terrible on 19 April 2023.