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Navigational Warnings have appeared pointing to an upcoming Soyuz launch from Plesetsk between February 9 and 13.
The direction of the launch suggests a ~97.4-degree inclined Sun-Synchronous Polar Orbit. If I would guess at the payload, it likely is either a BARS-M or a EO-MKA optical reconnaissance satellite, based on the orbital inclination aimed for.
While I initially interpreted this launch as a possible BARS-M launch, the lack of a deorbit area for a 3rd stage might suggest an EO-MKA instead (the EO-MKA's are prototypes of a small optical imaging satellite). Or maybe it is something new altogether.
Here are the Navigational Warnings:
051945Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 10/24(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
IN AREA BOUND BY
70-13.00N 033-11.00E, 70-18.00N 033-49.00E,
70-12.00N 034-11.00E, 69-54.00N 034-46.00E,
69-33.00N 034-47.00E, 69-25.00N 034-15.00E,
69-35.00N 033-37.00E, 69-53.00N 033-05.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.
052111Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 12/24(42,43).
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
IN AREA BOUND BY
75-59.00N 021-26.00E, 75-50.00N 022-05.00E,
75-35.00N 022-47.00E, 75-21.00N 022-52.00E,
75-15.00N 022-13.00E, 75-24.00N 021-29.00E,
75-36.00N 020-51.00E, 75-53.00N 020-43.00E.
2. CANCEL HYDROARC 11/24.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.
The map in top of this post shows the two areas plotted: one is just north of Murmansk, the other close to Svalbard. I have not been able to find a matching area for the upper stage deorbit.
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