A Missile Defense Test in the NE Pacific on December 11-16 (FTG-12?)

click map to enlarge

 

Two Navigational Warnings have appeared, NAVAREA XII 841 and NAVAREA XII 845, that together point to a Missile Defense test with a MRBM/IRBM target missile fired from NW of Hawaii towards California, and intercept by a GBI fired from Vandenberg, California. 

The window runs from December 11  to December 16 (2023). Here are the Navigational Warnings:

 061011Z DEC 23
NAVAREA XII 841/23(19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1430Z TO 1730Z DAILY
   11 THRU 16 DEC IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 24-40.00N 164-32.00W, 24-52.00N 164-43.00W,
   24-38.00N 165-07.00W, 24-26.00N 164-57.00W.
B. 27-13.00N 158-33.00W, 27-34.00N 158-49.00W,
   27-07.00N 159-45.00W, 26-44.00N 159-30.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 161830Z DEC 23.//

070807Z DEC 23
NAVAREA XII 845/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 11 THRU 16 DEC:
   A. 1400Z TO 1805Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY
      35-01.00N 121-13.00W, 35-01.00N 120-29.00W,
      34-45.00N 120-29W.00, 34-44.00N 121-13.00W.
   B. 1400Z TO 1805Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-35.00N 123-56.00W, 35-07.00N 123-56.00W,
      35-08.00N 121-13.00W, 34-36.00N 121-13.00W.
   C. 1400Z TO 1753Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-28.00N 126-07.00W, 35-11.00N 126-09.00W,
      35-12.00N 125-20.00W, 34-29.00N 125-18.00W.
   D. 1400Z TO 1846Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY
      35-08.00N 137-34.00W, 35-48.00N 128-26.00W,
      33-43.00N 128-13.00W, 32-52.00N 136-37.00W.
   E. 1400Z TO 1900Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-59.00N 138-18.00W, 34-45.00N 138-38.00W,
      35-06.00N 135-41.00W, 33-19.00N 135-25.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 162000Z DEC 23.//

As pointed out by Twitter user @M51_4ever, this could be test FTG-12, planned for the 4th quarter of 2023. It is a Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) test (part of the Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GBMD) system) where only two of the three stages burn, allowing an intercept at closer range (see also here).

The target missile appears to be a MRBM/IRBM fired from (probably) an aircraft in the vicinity of the fantastically named  French Frigate Shoals. The French Frigate Shoals is a reef/atoll in the Northwestern Hawaii islands, about halfway between Hawai'i and Midway, which got its name from the fact that two Frigates from the ill-fated late 18th century French Lapérouse expedition (which is a name that should be familiar to any Jules Verne fans) nearly were lost there.

My interpretation is that the intercept will be about 1000 km out of the California coast, over area D from NAVAREA XII 845 (Area E probably is where stage 2/3 and any remains of the kill vehicle will come down). The target missile will fly some 3300 km before being intercepted (or not: previous tests had an about 1 in 2 miss chance).

In the map in top of this post, blue is the target missile, red the interceptor.