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| click map to enlarge |
They must love Magritte over at the French DoD, looking at the shape of the exclusion zones for a missile test published as Navigational Warnings HYDROLANT 1371/23 and HYDROLANT 1372/23.
The Navigational Warnings point to a French missile test launched from DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, over the Bay of Biscaye, in the period 26 to 30 June 2023. Below is the text of the Navigational Warnings:
201628Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1371/23(36,37).
BAY OF BISCAY.
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08, DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
46-33.50N 004-51.90W, 48-27.00N 010-03.00W,
48-27.00N 015-12.00W, 47-04.50N 014-59.10W,
46-05.70N 013-39.00W, 44-02.30N 001-20.00W,
44-49.50N 001-12.30W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.
201646Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1372/23(36).
CELTIC SEA.
EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
DNC 19.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 1230Z TO 2230Z DAILY
26 THRU 30 JUN IN AREA BOUND BY
50-15.00N 011-08.00W, 49-40.00N 010-11.00W,
48-27.00N 010-03.00W, 48-27.00N 015-12.00W,
49-51.00N 013-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 302330Z JUN 23.
The shape and range of the Navigational Warnings suggest something SRBM/MRBM rather than, for example an SLBM. The curved shape is odd. After I posted the Warnings on Twitter, there has been some speculation that this might be a test of a hypersonic glider, perhaps V-Max. Taking into account the curve in the exclusion area, the range of this test would be in the order of 1250 km.
UPDATE 27 June 2023:
The test launch took place yesterday, 26 June 2023 at 22h CEST: see this French DoD bulletin, which also confirms that it was a test of the VMax glider on top of a sounding rocket.
A lot of chance sightings of the lingering missile exhaust cloud, illuminated by the sun, have been posted on Twitter, most of these from northern Spain but also a few from SW France. See for example here, here and here for a few examples.
The French Ministère des Armées provided this image of *a* launch. I have some doubts whether it is this particular VMAX launch, as the scenery seems sunlit with the sun in the South-Southeast (look at the shadows), while the launch was near 22 CEST, with the sun setting or just set in the Northwest...
[EDIT: the image seems to be a cgi render, i.e. not a real image, so that explains...]
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| Click to enlarge (image: Ministère des Armées, France) |
More Atlantic tests: US or UK Trident test
This is not the only test in the Atlantic this June. Slightly earlier, a Navigational Warning, HYDROLANT 1302/23, appeared, strongly suggesting a Trident-II D5 SLBM test in the period 14 to 17 June 2023, launched from a submarine near Florida:
121246Z JUN 23
HYDROLANT 1302/23(GEN).
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
DNC 01, DNC 16.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 141140Z TO 170029Z JUN
IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-39.00N 076-31.00W, 29-09.00N 076-13.00W,
28-47.00N 074-59.00W, 28-17.00N 075-14.00W.
B. 28-01.00N 073-25.00W, 28-07.00N 073-22.00W,
27-53.00N 072-04.00W, 27-31.00N 071-57.00W,
27-33.00N 072-24.00W.
C. 25-46.00N 067-21.00W, 26-19.00N 067-01.00W,
25-40.00N 065-42.00W, 25-08.00N 065-59.00W.
D. 14-00.00N 042-36.00W, 14-14.00N 042-28.00W,
13-41.00N 041-24.00W, 12-15.00N 039-09.00W,
11-40.00N 039-30.00W, 12-41.00N 041-09.00W.
E. 19-32.00S 007-27.00E, 18-42.00S 007-53.00E,
19-52.00S 010-33.00E, 20-46.00S 010-02.00E,
20-24.00S 009-17.00E, 20-12.00S 008-49.00E,
20-06.00S 008-41.00E, 20-03.00S 008-33.00E,
20-02.00S 008-29.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170129Z JUN 23.
Here is the map I created from this Navigational Warning, with the areas A to E and the approximately 10600 km trajectory:
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| click map to enlarge |
At the moment of writing, we are past the window of the Navigational Warning for this Trident test, but no word has come about a successful test launch yet.
The launch area some 450 km out of the coast of Florida is one of two regularly used launch areas for Trident test launches. It is launch area 2 in the compilation below of data from nine 9 Trident test launches from the last 10 years I could identify:
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| click map to enlarge |
The RV target area in front of the coast of Namibia is near one of three areas regularly used (target area 3 in the map below), but somewhat closer to the African coast than previous tests:
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| Click map to enlarge | |
A few more maps for tis and histroic Trident tests: first, stage 1 and stage 2 splashdown areas for launches from launch area 1 (top) and launch area 2 (bottom):
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| Launch area 1 launches. Click map to enlarge |
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| Launch area 2 launche. Click map to enlarge |
As I indicated in an earlier analysis, I suspect that launch area 1, much closer to the Florida coast than launch area 2, is used for launches with a VIP audience.
The two maps below show the mid-Atlantic third stage splashdown zones for the two launch areas in question:
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