Another Hypersonic glider test (likely AGM-183A ARRW) upcoming, in the Pacific [updated]

click map to enlarge

Last weekend saw a scrubbed Hypersonic Missile test from Cape Canaveral, Florida (see a previous post). It looks that another Hypersonic Missile test is upcoming next week, this time in the Pacific in front of California. Lines of evidence point to this Pacific test being another test of the hypersonic AGM-183 ARRW.

This set of three Navigational Warnings (plotted in the map above) have appeared for March 13, 14:00 to 21:00 UTC (with alternative dates from March 15 to 22):

080916Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 108/23(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W, 33-39.52N 120-59.00W,
   33-50.62N 121-43.39W, 33-59.90N 123-10.45W,
   34-00.35N 124-00.97W, 32-33.23N 129-06.23W,
   31-49.78N 128-56.57W, 32-20.90N 123-43.58W,
   32-49.13N 122-03.11W, 33-03.88N 120-31.73W,
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080933Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 109/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   31-26.77N 133-15.50W, 30-43.27N 135-59.02W,
   29-07.80N 135-24.00W, 29-50.62N 132-42.88W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080940Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 110/23(19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-26.27N 139-49.91W, 27-26.70N 142-21.68W,
   26-19.10N 141-47.66W, 27-18.04N 139-17.14W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//

The locations are very similar to those for the first succesful ARRW test of 9 December 2022, indicating that this could be another AGM-183 ARRW test. [update: now confirmed]

See the map below, where I have plotted Navigational Warnings for the 9 December 2022 ARRW test (red: NAVAREA XII 935, 936 and 937, 2022) and the upcoming test (blue: NAVAREA XII 108, 109 and 110, 2023):

click map to enlarge

The two western-most areas are 100% similar. The launch area in the Point Mugu range in front of the California coast is very similar as well.

The AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) is a missile that is airlaunched from a B52 Stratofortress. A booster missile accellerates a Hypersonic glider to hypersonic speeds of over Mach 5: the Hypersonic glider then is detached from the missile and glides to the target area.

ARRW Test flights in April and July 2021 failed. Two successful booster test flights were conducted in 2022. A first test flight of te full operational prototype on 9 December 2022 was successful.

AGM-183 ARRW under the wing of a B52 during a captive carry test in June 2019
(photo Wikimedia/U.S. Air Force photo by Christopher Okula)

UPDATE 26 March 2023:

It is now confirmed that this concerned an AGM-183A ARRW test. The test happened on March 13.

"The test met several of the objectives" according to the US Air Force (the several perhaps meaning that not everything went well... [update 28 March 2023: indeed, the Air Force Secretary now said as much, and it looks like ARRW program might be in trouble]). 

On March 13, several MDA aircraft were in the air over the eastern Pacific, including HALO2 and HALO51. A Boeing 747-E4B briefly visited the area as well.