[UPDATED] KOSMOS 2612 and ICEYE-X36: a worrisome cat-and-mouse-game in Space

click diagram to enlarge

 (update at end of post)

A worrisome cat-and-mouse-game is happening in Space as we speak. The Russian military satellite KOSMOS 2612 (2026-083H) which was launched from Plesetsk on 16 April 2026, is approaching the US registered, reportedly Ukranian used SAR satellite ICEYE-X36 (2024-043F).

At the moment of writing (17 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC) they are already within 1-2 km of each other, judging from the latest orbital elements. According to my calculations, somewhere in the next few hours (i.e. the early hours of October 18), KOSMOS 2612 might approach ICEYE-X36 to within a few meters (hard values are difficult to give here, given the inherent uncertainties in Two Line Elements).

That is very worrisome. This RPO (Rendezvous and Proximity Operation) is completely non-consensual.

If ICEYE-X36 is indeed used by Ukraine, this means that a satellite from one country (Russia) is closely approaching a satellite of another country (Ukraine) with which it is at war.

So I wonder and worry whether we are perhaps watching a first actual on-orbit ASAT attack in the making  here...

The next few days and hours should learn us more.

Initially, earlier last summer, I was skeptical whether KOSMOS 2612 was targetting ICEYE-X36. At that time, I considered that the similarity in orbital plane could be accidental, the more since the initial orbital configuration did not lead to frequent close approaches between the two satellites.

But my thinking on this has changed. Starting some two-and-a-half weeks ago, on September 30, 2026, KOSMOS 2612 made a series of manoeuvers. These were clearly designed to bring KOSMOS 2612 close to ICEYE-X36 and synchronise orbital altitude, eccentricity and orbital period. Manoeuvers to this effect happened on 30 September, 12 October, 15 October and 16 October.

[added note 17 Oct 2026, 19:05 UTC]:

The point is, that attribution is very difficult in Space. If ICEYE-X36 stops functioning tonight, it will be very suspicious, but nevertheless also difficult to unambiguously attribute to KOSMOS 2612.

 

click diagram to enlarge

 

Click diagram to enlarge

Click diagram to enlarge

UPDATE 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC:

Based on new orbital elements for both ICEYE-X36 and KOSMOS 2612 with epoch around 7:39 UTC (Oct 18), there seems to have been a close approach early on the 18th, possibly around 1:35 UTC, to within a few hundred meters or possibly (much) closer. There are indications in the orbital elements for KOSMOS 2612 that it made one or more small manoeuvers around that time or just after it, which makes estimating timing and distance difficult.

I so far see no indications in the orbital elements for ICEYE-X36 that it was affected/disturbed in its orbit (i.e. no indications that it was hit). Whether it functions after the close approach, only the users can tell us.

Click diagram to enlarge

UPDATE, 19 Oct 2026 10:00 UTC:

Another manoeuver by KOSMOS 2612, around 12:26 UTC on 18 October. This could either be to bring the satellite further away from the target, or the first of a set of phasing manoeuvers for a future new approach.

Click diagram to enlarge