A Russian SLBM test in the Arctic

click map to enlarge

Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to a possible Russian Bulava SLBM test launch between Oct 25 and 31. Over the past few year, Russia has regularly done such test launches in this time of the year (Oct-Nov), so they are routine and not connected to recent geopolitical developments.

The Navigational Warnings point to launch in the Sea of Ochotsk, southwest of Kamchatka, with the Chizha Test Range at Kanin peninsula as the target area, ~5500 km to the west. In the map above, I have plotted the exclusion zones from Navigational Warnings HYDROPAC 3058/26 and HYDROARC 307/26, with a fitted ballistic trajectory running over Siberia.

The RSM-56 Bulava (NATO: SS-N 30) is a three-stage Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), the Russian equivalent of the US and UK Trident and the French SM 51. It has a spotty test record. Test launches have so far either targetted Kura (when launched eastwards from the White Sea), or Chizha (when launched westwards from the Sea of Ochotsk). Failed launches from the White Sea caused some spectacular celestial "spiral" phenomena observed from northern Scandinavia in the past.

Below are the relevant Navigational Warnings:

210941Z OCT 26
HYDROPAC 3058/26.
SEA OF OKHOTSK.
RUSSIA.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 252100Z TO 312100Z OCT
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 58-44.00N 142-09.00E, 59-18.00N 143-38.00E,
      58-03.00N 145-25.00E, 57-31.00N 144-06.00E.
   B. 51-55.00N 152-00.00E, 51-55.00N 152-20.00E,
      51-40.00N 152-40.00E, 51-30.00N 152-40.00E,
      51-30.00N 152-00.00E.
   C. 52-20.00N 152-13.00E, 52-30.00N 152-42.00E,
      51-58.00N 153-13.00E, 51-47.00N 152-43.00E.
   D. 52-19.00N 150-58.00E, 52-38.00N 151-54.00E,
      51-50.00N 152-39.00E, 51-31.00N 151-45.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 312200Z OCT 26.//


201952Z OCT 26
HYDROARC 307/26.
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   252100Z TO 312100Z OCT IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 68-55.20N 051-20.35E, 68-40.47N 050-49.44E,
      68-20.05N 049-23.23E, 68-02.05N 047-54.41E,
      67-59.17N 047-04.45E, 68-14.22N 047-31.29E,
      68-36.41N 048-56.04E, 68-53.30N 050-29.28E.
   B. 67-29.00N 045-02.00E, 67-33.00N 045-19.00E,
      67-26.00N 045-30.00E, 67-22.00N 045-13.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 312200Z OCT 26.
 

Note that the launch is from the Sea of Ochotsk, not the Barents Sea, although the wording of the Navigational Warnings might suggest the latter.

(with thanks to Pavel Podvig and Etienne Marcuz for the heads up)