An upcoming Russian IRBM missile test on April 20-29

click map to enlarge

Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROARC 50/23 and HYDROARC 51/23) have appeared that suggest an upcoming Russian missile test of some sort in the Russian Arctic between April 20 and 29, 2023. 

The initial window is for 20 April, 11:00 to 15:00 UTC. Secondary windows are for 21 and 22 April 05:00 to 09:00 UTC, and 25 to 29 April 05:00 to 15:00 UTC.

The map above shows the locations of the two hazard zones. Launch is from the Barentsz Sea north of Murmansk: the target area appears to be in the East Siberian Sea near the De Long Islands, northeast of Novaya Sibir. The indicated range is about 3500 km, the orientation of the two hazard areas speaks against a lofted trajectory but rather fits a ~500 km apogee.

Initially I considered an SLBM launch, but the indicated range seems a bit short for that - I would expect an SLBM test launch to target the Kura test range in Kamchatka instead. So for now, let's keep it on an IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) of yet-unidentified type.

The ~3500 km range seems a bit too large for either the Zirkon hypersonic missile or Kalibr cruise missiles. So perhaps, this is something new.

The text below gives the Navigational Warnings in question:

130727Z APR 23
HYDROARC 50/23(41).
EAST SIBERIAN SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 27.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   201100Z TO 201500Z APR, 0500Z TO 0900Z DAILY
   21 AND 22 APR AND 0500Z TO 1500Z DAILY
   25 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
   77-25.62N 155-33.30E, 76-48.75N 150-51.52E,
   74-12.50N 157-26.45E, 73-53.42N 161-19.82E,
   74-58.35N 161-59.62E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291600Z APR 23.


142257Z APR 23
HYDROARC 51/23(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   201100Z TO 201500Z APR, 0500Z TO 0900Z
   DAILY 21 AND 22 APR AND 0500Z TO 1500Z DAILY
   25 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
   74-14.06N 039-11.16E, 73-31.48N 044-22.53E,
   69-17.38N 037-51.36E, 69-26.00N 037-03.00E,
   69-40.30N 037-03.00E, 69-40.30N 035-40.25E,
   70-10.26N 032-40.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 291600Z APR 23.