UARS reentry update 23 Sept (1)

UARS reentry update, 23 Sept 7:45 UTC
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The projected time of decay is still shifting considerabely with each orbit update: over the past 10 hours, it has hifted back and forth by several hours. The last few orbital updates tend to shift the projected reentry to a later time, early on the 24th, bringing a decay near the USA in view again

At the moment of writing, the nominal projected  reentry time using SatEvo and current solar flux data is 4:15 UTC on the 24th. This still has an uncertainty of a couple of hours, though.

Below diagram depicts how the projected renetry time has fluctuated with each new orbit released over the past two days:

click diagram to enlarge