[UPDATED 2x] Visualizing the trajectory of the September 10 Trident missile test in the Atlantic

The past days I have covered the story about German astrophotographer Jan Hattenbach's September 10 strange photographic observations from La Palma on this blog. Along with Jonathan McDowell I quickly suspected this was a  missile test launched from a submarine in the Atlantic. This was later confirmed: Lockheed-Martin and the US Navy announced that it was a test with a Trident II D5 SLBM launched from a submerged Ohio-class submarine.

More information next emerged that contained some clues to the launch trajectory. Now Cees Bassa has done an extensive analysis, modelling a trajectory. The details can be found here on the Seesat-L mailing list. He finds a launch location near 28 N, 68 W, more to the west than I initially thought.

I used Cees' results on the launch location and STK to fit a ballistic trajectory through Cees' launch location and the probable target area discussed earlier. The trajectory (visualized below) fits well with the altitudes and azimuths as photographically observed by Jan Hattenbach from La Palma (see astrometry in the appendix to my post here).

click maps to enlarge

The trajectory STK fits allows to say something about altitudes and flight-times. The launch occurred near 21:10:40 UT. After a 36 minute flight over a distance of 8660 km, the target area between St. Helena and the Gabon/Congo coast was reached near 21:47:00 UT. In the top of its ballistic trajectory, the missile reached an altitude of 1800 1900 km.

(note added 27 Sep 2013, 13:00 UT : Cees Bassa has since released the detailed data of his ballistic curve fitting: he has the apogee somewhat lower, at 1650 km, and a flight time between 21:10:00 UT and 21:44:45 UT, one minute faster. Please note that the diagrams below are based on the STK derived trajectory I cobbled together, not Cees' data.

Update 28 sep 13:00 UT: Cees' trajectory does not have the impact point in the published exclusion zone, but somewhat to the East of it. That is the major cause of the discrepancy between the results Cees published, and the ballistic trajectory I present here, which does land squarely in the exclusion zone. With the impact point shifted slightly westwards, the apogee altitude shifts upward if one wants to match the azimuth/elevation data from La Palma.)

click diagrams to enlarge

The two events at 21:17:08 and 21:08:43 UT that I initially misidentified as the 2nd and 3rd stage ignitions, but which are, as Jonathan McDowell pointed out, likely the MIRV bus and MIRV separations, happened at 1130 and 1330 km altitude in the ascending phase, after 6.5 and 8 minutes of flight-time, 1860 respectively 2235 km from the launch location. They are marked in the diagram below:

click diagram to enlarge

(note: for this post I am much indebted to Cees Bassa and his fine analysis. His trajectory reconstruction provided the basis for the diagrams and the timing and altitude information in this post. Cees' own detailed trajectory data can be found here - they slightly differ from what I present above, but see the note elsewhere in the post above.)

More on the September 10 mid-Atlantic Trident SLBM test captured by astrophotographer Jan Hattenbach

On September 20 I blogged with an analysis of photo's taken from La Palma on September 10 near 21:18 UT by German astrophotographer Jan Hattenbach. The pictures showed a strange phenomena which was quickly suspected to be a SLBM test. A suspicion that was confirmed yesterday when Lockheed and the US Navy announced they indeed tested a Trident II D5 missile that day, launched from a submerged Ohio-class submarine in the Atlantic.

Since then, more discussions have ensued on the SeeSat-L mailing list. Chiming in were amongst others Ted Molczan, Jonathan McDowell, Allen Thomson and Cees Bassa. These discussions and new pieces of evidence provide a possible target area for the test, and if some of the things brought up are correct, indicate that the launch location, the trajectory and imaged part of the flight path might be somewhat different from my initial assessment (which as I noted was very rough and very approximate: there was a reason I didn't provide a detailed map)

First, Ted Molczan managed to dig up a Broadcast Warning to mariners for the south Atlantic (that I was not able to trace to a URL). The text:

( 090508Z SEP 2013 )
HYDROLANT 2203/2013 (57)  
(Cancelled by HYDROLANT 2203/2013)

SOUTH ATLANTIC.
ROCKETS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 091400Z TO 140130Z SEP
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   09-18S 000-26W, 09-50S 000-32E,
   12-03S 002-39E, 13-40S 004-09E,
   14-09S 003-49E, 13-06S 001-56E,
   11-05S 000-58W, 10-55S 001-05W,
   09-56S 000-50W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140230Z SEP 13

Ted speculates that the area indicated is the target area of the (dummy) warheads from the Trident. Indeed, it is about 7000 km away, well within the ~11 000 km range of the Trident missile, from the general launch area I deduced earlier (but see below). It would mean my launch azimuth estimate was off by 40-45 degrees (and closer to 130 degrees). And it could very well be given that it was a very rough deduction from observations from only one location, with several assumptions involved. To reconstruct it properly, you need observations from two locations, so you can triangulate.

The potential target area is in the eastern part of the South Atlantic, between St. Helena and the coast of Gabon and Congo. It is elongated and the major axis of the polygon might be indicative of the launch direction. In that case, the missile trajectory was approximately as pictured below (Red line: missile trajectory. Yellow lines: sightlines from La Palma for the range I astrometrically measured (21:17:08 to 21:19:42 UT): this does not include the earliest part where it emerged from the horizon as seen from La Palma. The grey polygon is the potential target area mentioned in above Broadcast Warning).

click map to enlarge

Meanwhile, the actual launch location is a point of discussion as well. In my earlier analysis, I interpreted two distinct events in the  photographed trail as the moments the 2nd and 3rd stage of the missile kick in:

 Jonathan McDowell has a different suggestion: he thinks these moments represent the MIRV bus and MIRV (the warheads) separations. These happen at much higher altitudes than the rocket stage burns. It would mean the object(s) were at a much larger range from La Palma than I deduced from my earlier notion it were the 2nd and 3rd rocket stage burns. It would shift the launch location significantly more to the Northwest (see map above).

BREAKING: the September 10 La Palma event WAS a Trident missile test!

In an earlier post I analyzed a mysterious sighting by German astrophotographer Jan Hattenbach from La Palma on the Canary Islands on September 10.

Based on an analysis of his photographs, I concluded that what he serendipitously captured was most likely an unannounced SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) test in the mid-Atlantic, possibly a US or British Trident test.

News has just broken that the US Navy in cooperation with Lockheed-Martin indeed conducted a test with a modified Trident II D5 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile in the mid-Atlantic on September 10 (and again on September 12). The Trident D5 missile was launched from a submerged Ohio-class submarine.

(Tip of the Hat to Brian Webb who first brought up the confirmation news today at the SeeSat-L list)

You don't get to meet an astronaut every day

This weekend I was invited to attend ESA's and DLR's #SocialSpace tweetup in Cologne, Germany, organised in the context of the German Aerospace Day.

I will post a more elaborate photo report of this very fine and interesting meeting later this week, but for the moment I want to show you the picture below: Dutch ESA astronaut André Kuipers, who went to space in 2004 and 2012, was so kind to pose with me for a picture.

click image to enlarge

[UPDATED: confirmed!] A clandestine launch in the Mid-Atlantic on Sep 10, captured by a German astrophotographer?

UPDATE 24 Sep 2013 18:00:
It has now been confirmed that this was a US Trident SLBM test launched from an Ohio-class submerged submarine! So I was right!
(note added 25 Sep 2013: a post with more info subsequently come to light and an update on the probable launch trajectory is available here)

click image to enlarge

In the evening of September 10, 2013, German astrophotographer Jan Hattenbach was taking images with an f2.8/24mm lens near the GranTeCa dome, at 2300 meter altitude at the Roque de los Muchachos observatory on La Palma in the Canary Islands. His camera was looking due west, out over the Atlantic Ocean, in the direction of Bootes and Virgo. The intention was to create a time lapse movie.

Between 21:16 and 21:20 UT, he captured something unexpected on his images. A strange fuzzy bright object moved over the images, spouting cloudy puffs. Above is a stack of the images: it shows the GranTeCa dome, star trails, a normal satellite (Kosmos 1410)...and the strange cloudy phenomena coming under an oblique angle from the horizon. Below is a short movie made from the images (5 second images with a 2 second interval). Note that it is a time-lapse that speeds up the event: the whole phenomena took about 2.5 minutes in real time:



Jan wrote about his strange observation on his own blog (in German) and posted his story on the AKM forum and on Twitter. Rainer Kresken forwarded it to the SeeSat-L mailinglist, and science writer/journalist Daniel Fischer tweeted to Jonathan McDowell and me whether we could explain the phenomena. Next, Jan was so kind to make his original imagery available to me.

Initially Jan reported that the images were taken near 21:23 UT (Sept 10, 2013). However, it turned out that his camera clock was off by several minutes. The event in reality happened earlier.

Luckily, a "normal" satellite is visible in the image sequence too, briefly flaring, and Cees Bassa and me could identify that satellite as Kosmos 1410 (82-096A). As the orbit of this object is known, astrometry I performed on the trail yielded the correct image times. Jan's camera clock was off by 6m 17s, as it turned out. The phenomena took place between 21:16 and 21:20 UT.

After seeing the images, my first thought was that this could be a fuel vent by a rocket booster in Earth orbit. The time and trajectory did however not match any known object, unclassified or classified.

Another option was a satellite launch. There were however no launches scheduled for this date (and this includes launches of classified objects, which you really cannot keep secret. They are publicly announced as it involves temporary restrictions to airspace down te launch trajectory, and a very visible rocket ascent from Vandenberg or Canaveral).

At that point, I started to suspect that it could perhaps be a hush-hush suborbital ballistic missile launch test, similar to the September 2, 2013, US-Israeli missile test in the Mediterranean. Harvard space historian Jonathan McDowell communicated a similar suspicion, noting that the particular part of the Atlantic has seen Poseidon SLBM tests in the past.

The thing is, that no such test was announced for this date. For example, I have found no NOTAM's  restricting airspace over parts of the Atlantic because of a missile launch. That does not mean it is not a missile test though. It just means that whoever did the test, doesn't want to acknowledge it and preferred no-one to know about it. The September 2, US-Israeli test in the Mediterranean was not announced either (it came to light because it was detected by a Russian Early Warning Radar).

If the event seen from La Palma was indeed a clandestine Medium Range Ballistic Missile test (such as I believe is the case), the primary suspects are the Unites States or Great Britain, who both operate the Trident Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM); or the French, who operate the M45 and M51 SLBM.

Several points in the observation fit a SLBM test. The US/British Trident and the French M45/M51 are 3-stage missiles. In the stacked image and movie above, there are two sudden bursts of brightness in the trail, both accompanied by an expanding puffy cloud. I interpret these as the moments of jettison of the 1st stage and ignition of the 2nd stage (note: but see update here); and ejection of the 2nd stage and ignition of the 3rd stage. I have marked these moments, taking place at 21:17:08 and 21:18:43 UT (so with a 1m 35s separation), in below detail of the stacked image. The corresponding astrometric positions of these points are RA 205.061, Dec -3.950, and RA 211.366, Dec -6.153 degrees.

click to enlarge

Below are details from the single still images from those moments:

click image to enlarge

Below is a detail from a single frame just after what I interpret as the 3rd stage ignition, showing a bright fuzzy trail and expanding vapour clouds on both sides:

click image to enlarge

The duration of the event fits what is known of the Trident missile: from launch to 3rd stage ignition takes less than 2 minutes with the Trident. The 2nd stage ignites at about 70 km altitude, the 3rd at about 150km altitude.

A careful look at the stacked image shows that after what I interpret as the 3rd stage ignition, the trajectory clearly starts to deviate from the previous more or less straight line:

click image to enlarge

This is not an effect of lens distortion, as I will show below. It is a real deviation, that fits a missile launch. It shows unequivocally that the phenomena is not a fuel vent by a rocket booster in earth orbit. Such an object (moving in a Great Circle) would move in a straight line when positions are plotted in a Gnomonic projection. I did this for Jan's object: I astrometrically measured points on the trail and converted and plotted the measured RA/DEC in a gnomonic projection system. The same deviation that should not be there if this was an object in Earth orbit is visible in the RA/DEC data:

 

click diagram to enlarge

This makes very clear that Jan's object was not in orbit around the earth, but on a launch/ballistic trajectory. So we can definitely exclude a rocket booster orbiting the earth from a previous launch and venting fuel.

Just to support my previous argument further: here is what the trajectory in RA/DEC looks like for an object in an eccentric GTO orbit observed near perigee over a similar time span as Jan's object. The comparison object is the USA 40 rocket (1989-061D):

Assuming the La Palma event indeed was an unacknowledged Trident SLBM test by the USA or the British, the known specs of the Trident provide a (very) rough indication of where the launch took place.

As mentioned earlier, the 2nd stage of a Trident SLBM ignites at about 70 km altitude, the 3rd at about 150km altitude. As mentioned too above, I interpret two points in the trail to represent these moments. By measuring their astrometric position and calculating the corresponding azimuth and elevation in the sky, we can get a rough indication of distance and direction at these moments. I did this as a (please note) very rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. It suggests the launch took place near latitude 23-25N and a longitude several degrees West of  40 W. This is right in the middle of the Atlantic, at least 2000-3000 km from any coast in any direction. Again, that points to a Submarine launched missile. The launch azimuth is roughly 80-85 degrees, towards the African coast at a distance of over 3000 km. (note added 25 Sept: but see update here that somewhat changes the picture)

The USA was testing missile intercepts near Kwajalein in the Pacific that same September 10. It is however highly unlikely that the launch that Jan seems to have captured is directly related, for the simple reason that a Trident launched in the Mid-Atlantic does not have the necessary reach to get to Kwajalein.

It is a busy time with missile tests: after the September 2 test in the Mediterranean, the September 10 tests near Kwajalein, and this potential unacknowledged test captured by Jan Hattenbach that same date, there was also a missile test in New Mexico on September 13. The Kwajalein tests were scheduled well before, but the unannounced September 2 test in the Mediterranean and perhaps also this unacknowledged September 10 test in the Atlantic might be part of ad hoc military practise exercises in connection to the continuing situation with Syria.

One question some might raise: why a Medium range Ballistic Missile launch? Why can't this not be an unacknowledged launch into Earth orbit? First: it would not be possible to keep such a launch from a US landbased site a secret. It would be seen over a wide area (like the New Mexico test) and necessitate temporary closure of parts of airspace. Moreover, altitudes and directions really point to a launch in the Mid-Atlantic. The only way to launch into Earth Orbit over the Mid Atlantic would be by an airborne launch using a Pegasus rocket.

All in all, and given the context of the situation in Syria and the September 2 test in the Mediterranean as well, it is much more likely that this is an unacknowledged SLBM test, launched from a US, British or French submarine in the Mid-Atlantic.


UPDATE 24 Sep 2013 18:00:
It has now been confirmed that this was a US Trident SLBM test launched from an Ohio-class submerged submarine! So I was right! 

Update 25 Sep 2013: New post with new info here, including re-assessment of the launch trajectory

(note: I thank Jan Hattenbach for making available his original imagery and for his permission to use it on this blog. And I thank Cees Bassa, Jonathan McDowell, Rainer Kresken and Daniel Fischer for discussions. Conclusions and any errors are solely mine).


APPENDIX  - added 24 Sept 2013, 19:50

Below are the astrometric data I used in my analysis. I did not measure every image, but enough to describe the track of the object. Measurements were done with AstroRecord astrometric software. Only the start of each trail segment was measured, except for IMG_1848 where the point where it brightens (3rd stage ignition) was measured as well. The observing site is at 28.7564 N, 17.8889 W and 2300 meter altitude. Times are accurate to ~1 second.



IMG       UT        RA        DEC
1835      21:17:08  205.061  -3.950
1838      21:17:29  206.335  -4.418 
1840      21:17:43  207.272  -4.737 
1843      21:18:04  208.731  -5.228 
1846      21:18:25  210.137  -5.743 
1848      21:18:39  211.071  -6.089 
1848_ign? 21:18:43  211.366  -6.153 
1850      21:18:53  212.081  -6.416 
1852      21:19:07  213.008  -6.790
1853      21:19:14  213.489  -6.977 
1855      21:19:28  214.450  -7.388 
1856      21:19:35  214.907  -7.585  
1857      21:19:42  215.493  -7.786

Past and future of the KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL constellation (part 3)

In my previous post I outlined in detail how information gleaned from past changes in the KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite constellation might yield a blueprint for changes to be expected in the coming months, following the launch of USA 245 (NROL-65, 2013-043A) into the same orbital plane as USA 186 (2005-042A) last August 28.

click image to enlarge

That discussion involved a look at past configurations, especially the relative positions of the orbital planes of the primary and secondary satellites in the constellation. Based on these past configurations, I concluded:

"After these orbital re-arrangements, USA 224 and USA 245 will be the primary satellites in the East resp. West plane. If history is to go by, their orbital planes will likely be separated by about 48 to 50 degrees. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will probably be 15 to 25 degrees east from that of USA 224. The orbital plane of USA 186, now the secondary satellite in the West plane, will most likely eventually be located 5 to 15 degrees west from that of USA 245."

This weekend I mapped the history of the KH-11 constellation in somewhat more detail than I did for my previous post (where I only looked at 2007, 2011 and 2013). Based on this more detailed analysis, I think I can constrain the distribution of orbital planes even further. The orbital plane of the secondary West plane satellite, a role USA 186 will take early 2014 if I am correct, will be located 10 degrees west of the primary West plane satellite. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will maintain to be located 20 degrees west east of the primary East plane satellite.

I can say this with some confidence because this seems to have been the intended nominal KH-11 constellation over the full past 8 years.

Since 2005 I keep an archive of the frequently updated classfd.tle orbit files calculated by Mike McCants: they are based on amateur observations that include mine. From my archives I extracted orbital elements for the KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites with an epoch in early July, for each year between 2005 and 2013. Next, since the orbit epochs in question sometimes differ by a few days, I used Scott Campbell's SatFit software to normalize them all to the same epoch, day yy182 (where yy is the year and 182 is the day number), i.e. July 1st of each year.

By normalizing to the same epoch, the RAAN values of the orbits become directly comparable. RAAN stands for Right Ascencion of the Ascending Node, and this value maps the orientation of the orbital plane in space for the epoch in question. More precisely, the RAAN value gives the angle of the orbital plane in earth-centered space, with respect to the direction of the Vernal equinox at the epoch in question.

click diagram to enlarge

The diagram above maps the RAAN values (in degrees) at July 1 for each KH-11 satellite in each year in the period 2005-2013. The diagram below plots the same data, but then expressed as the difference delta (in degrees) between the planes of the primary East and West plane satellites, as well as the delta between the planes of the primary plane satellites and the secondary plane satellites:

click image to enlarge

A clear systematics can be seen to it. The primary East and West plane satellites (always the newest satellite in each plane) are 48 to 50 degrees apart. The secondary West plane satellite is in an orbital plane 10 degrees more westward than the primary West plane satellite. The secondary East plane satellite is in an orbital plane 20 degrees more eastward than the primary East plane satellite.

These are (of course) similar values to what I reported before, but now much more clearly constrained, documented over a larger time span, the diagrams visualizing the intended spatial arrangement very well. An arrangement that has basically been stable over the past 8 years. Changes in the arrangement amount to satellites switching roles (and orbital planes), but the basic orbital planes that make up the constellation remain the same.

The top diagram visualizes how satellites have switched from primary to secondary roles (and from orbital plane) as new satellites are added to the constellation.

For example, we see USA 129 (1996-072A) switch from the primary West plane to the secondary West plane in 2006-2007, following the launch of USA 186 (2005-042A) into the primary West plane. It does so by changing its orbital plane by 10 degrees. And we see USA 161 switch from the primary East plane to the secondary East plane in 2011-2012 (actually late August 2011), following the launch of USA 224 into the primary East plane. It does so by changing its orbital plane by 20 degrees.

A similar switch will no doubt occur early 2014 (see my previous post), when (if I am not wrong) USA 186 switches its orbital plane by 10 degrees from the primary West plane to the secondary West plane, once USA 245 (freshly launched into the primary West plane last August 28) becomes fully operational.

What can also be seen, is how USA 116 (1995-066A) started to drift away from its orbital plane after 2006, and was next de-orbited in 2008. The suggestion is that this satellite had almost ran out of fuel by 2006, as a result of which it was no longer an option to counter the drift by periodic manoeuvres. By 2008 it was drifting too far from the intended constellation, and the last fuel reserves were then used to de-orbit it. The secondary East plane was then left empty until three years later, in 2011, USA 161 (2001-044A) took on the role previously filled by USA 116. This happened after USA 224 (2011-002A) was launched as a replacement into the primary East plane. As of late 2011, the KH-11 constellation can hence be considered complete again (I have pointed out earlier, in my previous post, that the 2008-2011 gap in the secondary East plane was caused by the delay and then cancelling of the FIA optical program).

Note 12 Oct 2013: a follow-up on this post, discussing other orbital parameters than orbital plane, can now be read here.

On USA 245 and USA 129, and the future of the Keyhole constellation: an afterthought to my previous post

In my previous post I discussed how the new KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL USA 245, launched as NROL-65 on August 28,  has been inserted into the same orbital plane as USA 186, a KH-11 launched in 2005. I also discussed the current KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite constellation in that post.

Near the end of my post, I wrote:

"With the optical component of the FIA program cancelled, I suspect all of the remaining post-1996 Keyholes to remain operational for many years. For USA 129 though, the end should come one of these days, perhaps once USA 245 has been fully checked out and is put on operational status."

I have since formulated some more thoughts about the likely timetable and likely sequence of events, which are the topic of the current post.


Current and past KH-11 constellations

The KH-11 optical reconnaissance satellites occupy two orbital planes, a West and an East plane. I have already written about this before in my previous post. The image below (made with JSatTrak) gives a graphic depiction of the KH-11 constellation for early September 2013:

 click image to enlarge

With the addition of USA 245 on August 28, the West plane now consists of three satellites:

USA 129  (1996-072A)  operational, but near operational end?
USA 186  (2005-042A)  operational
USA 245  (2013-043A)  new addition being readied for operation

As I wrote before, USA 129 (1996-072A), the oldest KH-11 still on orbit, is now near an incredible 17 years of operational lifetime. With this, it has had by far the longest life-time of any KH-11 so far (see Ted Molczan's KH-11 lifetime data compilation here).

The East plane consists of two satellites:

USA 161  (2001-044A) operational
USA 224  (2011-002A) operational

A previous satellite in the East plane, USA 116 (1995-066A) was de-orbited in November 2008, some 7 years after USA 161 was added to that orbital plane. This was probably done because it had reached the end of its feasible lifetime (for example, because it was running out of fuel, or because vital components started to deteriorate). It had been operational for 13 years when de-orbited.

With the launch of USA 224 on 20 January 2011, slightly over two years later, the East plane was fitted with a second satellite again. This launch probably came so late, because the new FIA Optical program was originally supposed to take over from the CRYSTAL/KH-11 program by 2008. The FIA Optical program was however delayed and then cancelled, and the KH-11/CRYSTAL program reinvigorated.

The cancelling of the FIA Optical program, leaving the KH-11/CRYSTAL program without a follow-up, is why I think that the remaining Keyholes will remain in orbit for several more years, except for the exceptionally aged USA 129. The KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites are currently the only high-resolution optical reconnaissance satellites available to the NRO, apart from time hired on commercial imaging satellites (DigitalGlobe).

If the lifetime of USA 129 is a guide, the remaining operational KH-11 lifetimes will perhaps be up to five more years for USA 161, perhaps up to ten for USA 186, and perhaps up to 15 years or even more for USA 224 and USA 245.


Re-arrangements after the USA 224 launch in 2011

The history of the previous addition to the KH-11 constellation in 2011 might constitute a blueprint of what will happen the coming months, now USA 245 has been added to the constellation.

In 2011, USA 224 was initially launched into the same orbital plane as USA 161, similar to how USA 245 has now been launched into the same orbital plane as USA 186. A few months after the USA 224 launch the older East plane satellite (USA 161) manoeuvered to a lower orbit (or more accurately: a more circular orbit with lower apogee), on 24 August 2011. This was preceded by a number of smaller preparatory manoeuvres in the previous two months according to Ted Molczan (priv. com.).

This could indicate that USA 224 became fully operational about 5 to 7 months after launch. At that moment it became the primary satellite in the East plane, with USA 161 next taking on a new secondary role in an extended mission, as indicated by its manoeuvre into a different orbit.

Subsequently, the orbital plane of USA 161 was allowed to drift slightly eastward. As a result, the orbital plane of the older USA 161 in the East plane is currently located 20 degrees east of that of the newer USA 224,  in a similar vein as the orbital plane of the older USA 129 in the West plane is located somewhat westward of that of the newer USA 186.

(note: the saga of the significant August 2011 manoeuvre of USA 161 and its eventual recovery by observers including me, has been covered on this blog here, here and here).


Current and past plane separations

The orbital planes of the current main West plane satellite, USA 186, and the main East plane satellite, USA 224, are some 48 degrees apart. Likewise, before USA 224 took over from USA 161 mid-2011, the orbital planes of the then main West and East plane satellites USA 161 and USA 186 were 49 degrees apart. Mid 2007, the then main East and West plain satellites USA 161 and USA 186 were 50 degrees apart. This is all very similar, differing by only 1-2 degrees.

click image to enlarge

The orbital plane of the secondary West plane satellite, USA 129, is currently located 10 degrees west of the plane of the primary West plane satellite USA 186. The orbital plane of USA 161, the secondary satellite in the East plane, is located 20 degrees east of the orbital plane of the primary East plane satellite USA 224. Mid 2011 this was 2 resp. 12 degrees, and mid 2007 it was 5 resp. 26 degrees.

In table form, for the current constellation (September 2013):

Epoch 13250   
7 Sept 2013
 
----------------------------------------- 
satellite  RAAN    PER   APO   incl   
(name)     (deg)   (km) (km)   (deg)
-----------------------------------------

WEST PLANE

USA 129    303     308   770  97.56   S 
USA 186    313     262  1017  97.94   P
USA 245    314     262  1010  97.87   fP

EAST PLANE
   
USA 224    01      258  1023  97.88   P
USA 161    21      385   393  97.03   S
-----------------------------------------

P  = Primary
fP = future Primary
S  = Secondary


(In this table, RAAN stands for Right Ascension of the Ascending Node. This value determines the position of the orbital plane in earth-centered space with reference to the vernal equinox point at the epoch in question. PER and APO refer to the altitude of Perigeum and Apogeum, and incl is the orbital inclination. See also here. All data are based on orbital elements calculated by Mike McCants from amateur observations, including mine).

I do not know what the reason is for the asymmetry between the secondary East and West planes with relation to their primary planes (10 resp. 20 degrees currently), although I suspect it has to do with  solar angles at the imaged target locations (the West plane satellites pass in the morning, the East plane satellites somewhat after noon).


Future re-arrangements and expected USA 129 de-orbit

If the pattern after the addition of USA 224 in 2011 repeats in the West plane with USA 186 and the newly added USA 245, I expect USA 245 to become fully operational around February 2014. Around that time it will become the primary satellite in the West plane. Between  now and then, it will probably make more manoeuvers to finalize its intended orbit.

We can then next also expect USA 186 to attain a new secondary role and go into a new extended mission, by manoeuvering into a more circular orbit with lower perigee apogee somewhere in February or March 2014. Next, the orbital plane of USA 186 will probably be allowed to drift somewhat westward, as a result of which USA 186 will take up an orbital plane slightly west of that of USA 245.

Near that same time, and possibly somewhat earlier if time is really running out on it, we might see the de-orbit of USA 129.

After these orbital re-arrangements, USA 224 and USA 245 will be the primary satellites in the East resp. West plane. If history is to go by, their orbital planes will likely be separated by about 48 to 50 degrees. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will probably be 15 to 25 degrees east from that of USA 224. The orbital plane of USA 186, now the secondary satellite in the West plane, will most likely eventually be located 5 to 15 degrees west from that of USA 245. The  orbital planes of the outer (secondary) East plane and outer (secondary) West plane satellites, USA 161 and USA 186, will probably be separated by about 80 degrees.

(note added 15 Sept 2013: after a more comprehensive analyses of the orbital planes over 2005-2013, I believe the orbital plane of the secondary satellite in the West plane to be placed 10 degrees west of the primary West plane: and the orbital plane of the secondary satellite in the East plane to be placed 20 degrees East of the primary East plane. See my follow-up post here)

Of course, these are all just no more than educated guesses, based on past configurations and re-arrangements of the Keyhole/CRYSTAL constellation. Time will tell us whether this scenario will indeed play out as I outlined above. It is always possible that we will eventually see something completely different!


Sun-synchronous, repeating ground tracks

KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites move in sun-synchronous orbits that have their ground tracks more or less repeat after an integer number of days (1, 2, 4 or more days). The goal is to obtain comparative images of the same location taken a few days apart, taken with similar illumination by the sun (i.e., similar shadows). This aids the analysis of the images for the detection of any changes on sites of interest.

As I wrote in my previous post, the West plane Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites make evening and morning passes. The East plane Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites make passes 1-2 hours after local noon and midnight.

USA 186 and USA 224, the current primary satellites in the West resp. East plane, repeat their ground tracks after 4 days (the 4:59 resonance). USA 129 and USA 161, the secondary satellites in the respective planes, repeat ground tracks after 12 resp. 7 days.

When USA 245 has taken over from USA 186 in the West plane by February-March 2014, we can expect it to have a 4-day ground track repeat interval. It will be interesting to see whether USA 186 will attain a 7-day ground track repeat interval similar to the current repeat interval of USA 161.

(Update added 15 september 2013: A further and well-illustrated update, documenting and constraining the constellation of orbital planes in past and present even further, can be read here).

(Note: I am indebted to Ted Molczan for comments on a draft of this post, and for providing me a spreadsheet to calculate the ground track repeat intervals. Any errors of fact or interpretation in this post are solely mine)

The orbit of USA 245 and the current KH-11 constellation

In the past two weeks (e.g. here, here and here) I have written about tracking USA 245 (2013-043A), the new KH-11 Keyhole (Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL) optical reconnaissance satellite launched as NROL-65 on August 28.

USA 245 has been launched in the same orbital plane as USA 186 (2005-042A), a KH-11 Keyhole launched on 19 October 2005. In time, it is therefore probably intended to replace this satellite.

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The diagram above (made with JSatTrak and using our amateur derived orbits for the two satellites) shows the orbital similarity between USA 186 and USA 245. The orbital plane is the same and the orbital altitudes are similar (and will probably be even more similar in the future, after more USA 245 orbital manoeuvering). USA 245 (white) is currently in a 262 x 1010 km, 97.87 degree inclined orbit. USA 186 (green) is in a 263 x 1017, 97.93 degree inclined orbit.

The constellation of on-orbit KH-11 Keyholes now counts five satellites:

USA 129  (1996-072A)
USA 161  (2001-044A)
USA 186  (2005-042A)
USA 224  (2011-002A)
USA 245  (2013-043A)

These operate in two rather loose orbital planes. One, sometimes called the "West plane", produces passes in the local evening and morning, around 10 am and 9 pm local time. To this plane belong USA 129, USA 186 and the new USA 245. The other plane, sometimes called the "East plane", produces passes one to two hours after local noon and local midnight, around 1 am and 2 pm local time. This plane is occupied by USA 224 and USA 161.

The orbits of all the Keyholes currently in orbit are pictured below, with the two orbital planes well visible left and right of the center meridian:

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Of the Keyholes still in orbit and presumably operational (as they are periodically reboosted to maintain their operational configuration), USA 129, launched on 20 December 1996, has been on orbit for almost 17 years now. As can be seen in this table of data compiled by Ted Molczan, this is the longest operational lifetime of any of the KH-11 Keyholes so far. It will be interesting to see how long they will keep it flying: it's last predecessor, USA 116 (1995-066A), was de-orbitted on 19 October 2008.

With the optical component of the FIA program cancelled, I suspect all of the remaining post-1996 Keyholes to remain operational for many years. For USA 129 though, the end should come one of these days, perhaps once USA 245 has been fully checked out and is put on operational status.

(note added 14 Sep 2013: this post has a long follow-up post here, detailing past configurations of the KH-11/CRYSTAL constellation, and how I expect to see the satellite configuration re-arranged early 2014, when USA 245 becomes fully operational)

More tracking of USA 245, and being flashed by ALOS

After my observations in the hours after launch on August the 28th and my observations on September 3, I observed the newly launched KH-11 Keyhole USA 245 (NROL-65, 2013-043A) again yesterday evening.

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It was brighter yesterday than during my previous observations, this time reaching an easy naked-eye brightness. Near 20:38:15 UTC it slowly brightened to mag.+1. Above is one of my images, showing it as it traverses the northern part of Cygnus.

Ten minutes earlier, I observed USA 186 (2005-042A), the KH-11 Keyhole launched in 2005 that USA 245 in time is meant to replace. For the moment, they probably will operate together in the same orbital plane for several years. The image below shows it traversing Cepheus.

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After observing USA 186 and while waiting for USA 245, a very bright (up to mag. 0), slowly and irregularly flaring object appeared near 20:33 UT. It turned out to be ALOS (2006-002A), the Japanese Earth Observation satellite that malfunctioned in 2011. It evidently is slowly tumbling. Below are two images, showing the irregular brightness variation:

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Tracking USA 245 (NROL-65)

In my previous post I blogged about observations of NROL-65, the new KH-11 Keyhole optical reconnaissance satellite launched on 28 August. As a satellite, it now has the designation USA 245 (NROL-65 was the launch number, i.e. NRO Launch 65).

I already blogged about how our small bunch of dedicated amateur trackers located and followed this classified satellite within hours after launch (I myself observed it on it's second revolution, 3 hours after launch). Since then, we have kept following it, documenting a number of orbital manoeuvres.

On the evening of August 30 Russell Eberst in Scotland and Cees Bassa in the Netherlands noted the satellite was notably late on the predictions, suggesting a manoeuvre. Observations by several observers (communicated on the SeeSat list) analyzed by Ted Molczan in Canada show it  manoeuvred on August 30 near 9:15 UTC from a 252 x 996 km into a 254 x 1002 km orbit.

A day later, on August 31 near 18:30 UTC, it manoeuvered again, to an approximately 259 x 1007 km orbit. It will probably manoeuvre more in the following days.

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I observed USA 245 yesterday evening, under challenging conditions: an untimely field of very thin clouds passed just as USA 245 was passing over Leiden, at an elevation of about 40 degrees in the west. The image above shows the trail between thin clouds (star field is in Hercules).

The satellite now has the Cospar code 2013-043A, and by looking at the omissions in the SSC catalogue numbering we know it has SSC ('NORAD') number 39232.

USA 245 (NROL-65), the new KH-11 Keyhole, seen 3 hours after launch

On 28 August 2013 at 18:03 UTC, a Delta IV-H with a classified NRO payload lifted off from Vandenberg AFB as NRO Launch 65 (NROL-65). It is widely believed that the payload is a KH-11/KH-12 Keyhole optical reconnaissance satellite.

1.5 hours after launch at the completion of its first orbit,  the upper stage and the payload were seen by Cees Bassa from the Netherlands, Björn Gimle in Sweden, Alexander Repnoy in the Ukraine and Jon Mikel in Spain .

The sky was still too bright in the western Netherlands during this pass. But on a second pass, three hours (two orbital revolutions) after launch, I captured the payload on photo and video when it made a fine near-Zenith pass over Leiden. It was faint, near mag. +4.5. Conditions were fair but not perfect: the sky was slightly hazy.

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The image above shows it traversing Lyra - the bright star is Vega. The image was shot with the F2.5/50mm Macro lens.

In the video below (with which YouTube unfortunately did not do a particularly good job, the original video is much better quality) shows it rising over the roof and passing near Altair, then shows a clip of it traversing Lyra. It was shot with the WATEC 902H and a 1.4/25mm lens.




Russell Eberst in Scotland and Cees Bassa in the Netherlands captured it during the same pass as well. Since then, the payload (the upper stage has been deorbited after the first revolution) was also seen by Ted Molczan in Toronto, Canada and filmed by Kevin Fetter in Canada.

Over the next few days, we will watch it finalizing its intended orbit. The orbital plane is the same as that of USA 186 (2005-042A), an earlier KH-11 launched in 2005.

Both the photography and video yielded a set of positional data that along with observations by other observers helped Ted Molczan to define a preliminary orbit.

The "Piece of MIR" that quite probably isn't

During the previous weekend, a story appeared in several news outlets (e.g. here and here and here) in which a man from Amesbury, Massachusetts, claims to have found a strange rock in a riverbed which "NASA" (according to the story) next identified as either a piece of the Russian space station MIR or a piece of "MIR era space debris" (the latter depending on the news outlet).

MIR was a Russian Space Station, in many ways the fore-runner of the ISS, which was de-orbited in March 2001.

While the story was quickly and uncritically proliferated by several news outlets (even RIA Novosti), many space and satellite buffs (including this blog's author) were suspicious of the claims right away. The object, a glassy piece of rock, looked nothing like a genuine piece of space debris. And the specific link to MIR or a MIR-era Russian spacecraft seemed dubious in the absence of a recognizable machine part morphology or machine part registration number.

Here are a couple of pictures of the object, which are screenshots from the CBS Boston video news report here:

The man who reportedly found it, claims he picked it up from the mud at low tide several years ago at a point where his backyard touches on the banks of the Merrimack river. It was a greenish glassy rock "covered in mud".

He put it under a tree in his yard where it sat for several years until his sister in law, who knew someone at NASA, sent it to that person for analysis. Or so the story goes. Many months later, the object was returned with a letter purporting to be from a NASA engineer called "George Leussis". In this letter it was identified as "a piece of MIR" or ballast from a MIR-era Russian spacecraft.

But is it? To be frank: most likely it is not.

First of all, while ballast is sometimes indeed added to space launches (to let the launch mass match the rocket performance), this is not in the form of rock. Such ballast is usually water (in a tank), sand, or metal. And glass is not a major component of spacecraft (glass fiber is though). Certainly not in seizable chunks.

More important than that: what are the reasons to think this is space debris in the first place? It doesn't look like a part of a spacecraft at all. It looks like a glassy rock.

The piece looks like a silicate glass, with clear signs of weathering (e.g. the pitting on the surface, the dull glossy shine), and clear conchoidal flaking (best seen on the third picture above).  Contrary to the impression given by the news reports, I can see no evidence of a "fiery entry through the atmosphere" on the pictures of the piece. It looks like a smelt alright, but contrary to what many people think that is not what you get from an atmospheric reentry. Pieces will ablate and will get a thin fusion crust (thin melt layer) just like meteorites, but they do not melt completely and next solidify into a clump again.

The conchoidal fracturing certainly would have to have taken place after any melting, and given that the flaked surface has the same green-brown colour there, the latter colour is certainly not due to any superficial burning.

To be honest the object looks very much like either one of two things (which can look quite alike on photographs, since both are silicate melts):

1) a piece of  obsidian (volcanic glass);
2) a piece of industrial silicate slag.

The first is a natural material: the second is man-made waste. Both basically consist of solidified clumps of glass and often have a dark blackish, greyish, brownish or greenish colour. They can show flow lines in the glass, vesicles, and are subject to weathering phenomena that include surface pitting from dissolution. All of which can be seen on the pictures of the object in question.

So what actually traces this clump of silicate melt to the Russian space program rather than a more earthly origin? The short answer: apparently nothing.

A molten silicate is not unique to products of the Russian space program. In fact it is not likely to be a product of any space program. It is very ubiquitous on earth as industrial waste, as volcanic product etcetera. Only if a geologist can ascertain the object is none of those, then one can think of another, more wilder and rare origin - such as Russian space "ballast". Note that none of the news stories mentions a geologist looking at the object - they only mention a NASA engineer (but: see below!).

The next claim in the story is the specific link to the Russian space program (rather than space debris in general) - Mir or Progress. In the absence of a recognizable morphology or a machine part number, this link is completely uncorroborated.

At the least, I would like to see a clear chemical analysis with an argument why the composition would uniquely point to the Russian space program, as opposed to a common terrestrial origin (i.e. an industrial slag or a volcanic glass).

The letter quoted in one of the news articles claims such, but in vague and  ambiguous wording. It seems to say the material is terrestrial, and only the "green colour and strange properties" according to the letter point to it having been "subjected to a fall from low Earth orbit". The green colour is however certainly not unusual for industrial silicate slag and volcanic glass, and I see no "strange properties" in the published images of the rock nor the descriptions of the rock that would point to it having experienced an atmospheric entry (or would be unusual for an industrial silicate slag or volcanic glass). Moreover: the apparent "letter from NASA"  has since come under suspicion.

For here is the clincher: it is claimed that the identification was made by a NASA engineer called George Luessis. An engineer called George Luessis indeed works for NASA (he was part of the Chandra project), BUT: upon being asked by Harvard astrophysicist and space buff Jonathan McDowell, he denies any knowledge of this object and the letter and says he didn't make this identification. 

So who did make that identification then? Who wrote that letter, if truely there is a letter? Another engineer called George Luessis working for NASA?

Basically, at this point this whole story is falling to (green, glassy) pieces. The rock looks like material that is ubiquitous on Earth. There is nothing in the morphology to link it to a Space Program (let alone the Russian Space Program), i.e. nothing in the composition and morphology to think it is space debris. In fact, there is much in the morphology that makes that highly unlikely. And it is not clear who at NASA, if anyone at all, analysed the rock and "identified" it as "space debris". There is/was a George Luessis working at NASA, but it was not him. So who?

It can be seriously doubted that this green glassy rock is a piece of space debris. There is not a shred of verifiable evidence for it and much speaks against it.

Fireball seen over Eastern Australia, 13 June 2013 6:05 pm AEST, was NOT the decay of Molniya 3-53

On June 13, 2013, near 6:05 pm local time (AEST - corresponding to 10:05 UTC), many people in Eastern Australia observed a bright fast light falling down in the sky. It was even recorded by one of those new-fangled dashboard-cams (one of these days, I must get me one for my bike).

The Australian news website "The Chronicle" claims it was a satellite decay - more exactly, that of the Russian Molniya platform Molniya 3-53 (2003-029A).

It was however most definitely not a satellite decay.

All descriptions talk about a fast object. The dashcam video shows a pretty fast fireball indeed.

It is much too fast to be a decaying satellite. The latter move at relatively slow speeds - 8.5 km/s. At that speed, it takes them several minutes to traverse your sky, not just a few seconds. As low over the horizon as the dashcam video shows it, it would have been very, very slow, taking several tens of seconds to traverse the distance it does in the video.

In addition to it being too fast to be a satellite decay, the proposed connection to Molniya 3-53 can be rejected right away.

First: Molniya 3-53 did not decay on June 13. Orbital data by Strategic Space Command ("NORAD") show it was still in orbit in the early hours of June 15 - two days after the Australian fireball. At the moment of writing (12 UTC, June 15), the last available orbit is for epoch 13166.42726929 ( = 15 June 2013, 10:15 UTC). The moment of decay is currently predicted as 15 June 14:04 UTC, with an uncertainty of 2 hours. [Update 22/6: SSC's final TIP-message issued 15 June 15:30 UTC gives 15 June, 14:10 UTC +/- 26 minutes for the moment of decay)

Now, given that the apogee of the satellite was at a very low altitude already, could it have been the case that it briefly started to burn but survived after it passed perigee?

The answer is "no" in this case and brings us to a second point against the identification with this satellite: Molniya 3-53 was not over Australia at June 13, 10:05 UTC. It was at very high altitude over Northern Europe at that time (see map below). It would not pass over (central) Australia untill 10:55 UTC (6:55 pm AEST), i.e. a full hour later than the fireball sighting.

So what was it then? Given the speed, it is very clear this was a meteoric fireball, a small piece of cosmic rock or ice (debris from a comet or an asteroid) entering the atmosphere.

ATV-4 and ISS, 15 hours before docking (and Progress too)

After a few cloudy and rainy days, it miraculously cleared in the afternoon of the 14th. This allowed me a last view on the ATV-4 before docking to the International Space Station ISS.

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I observed two passes. The first was in very deep evening twilight (sun at -6 degrees altitude) at 22:56 local time (20:56 UT). ISS and ATV-4 passed almost right overhead, the ATV slightly over 2 minutes in time behind ISS and both easily visible. I had set up my video equipment, but forgot to press the "record" button....

The next pass was under a darker sky, at 00:32 local time (22:32 UT). I walked a few tens of yards to the city moat to see it (I have better view at low elevations there). ISS and ATV-4 attained a maximum elevation of 28 degrees in the S-SW. The photograph above is from that pass. Using the 2.8/17-50 mm Tamron at the 17 mm setting, I could just catch ISS and ATV in one image - with a stray old Russian military satellite as a bonus (Kosmos 1315 (1981-103A), a defunct Tselina-D ELINT launched in 1981. A Japanese H-2A r/b briefly became bright as well and is visible in some images (but not the one above).



I had also set up the video, filming from my GF's appartment. About 16 minutes before the ISS pass, I filmed Progress M-19M (2013-007A). This cargoship, now filled with trash, was undocked from the ISS a few days ago to make room for the ATV. It will reenter on June 19th. In the video above, while the Progess is passing, look for a brief bright flash just below the image center at 22:13:36. This is a flashing geostationary satellite (probably NSTAR A, 1995-044A). The video next cuts to the ISS pass 16 minutes later, followed by ATV-4 and a couple of bats in the last seconds of the video.

The image below is a stack of 28 photographs, showing ATV-4, the ISS, Kosmos 1315 (barely) and the H-2A r/b (top):

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Another fine pass of ATV-4, and objects from a recent Russian Persona launch

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Following my observations of June 5-6 (see photo's and video here) and a visual observation on June 6-7, yet another fine sighting of the ATV-4 Albert Einstein was done yesterday around local midnight. First I watched the ISS pass, followed 17 minutes later by the ATV. The image above, which is a stack of six images of 5 seconds exposure each (Canon EOS 60D + EF 2.8/24mm, 640 ISO), shows the ATV-4 ascending over the rooftops as seen from the courtyard of my home in Leiden.

I also obtained video again using the WATEC. The video below shows part of the passof the ATV, and then continues with some footage of the earlier ISS pass. While the ISS is ascending over the roof, two other objects can be seen (from 1:28 in the video onwards), chasing each other from left to right just over the rooftops, in a trajectory perpendicular to that of the ISS:



These two objects are related to the launch of Kosmos 2486, a Russian military Persona satellite, the Russian version of the US Keyhole optical reconnaisance satellites. Kosmos 2486 was launched 3.5 hours before this sighting (at 18:37 UTC on June 7th) by a Soyuz rocket from Plesetsk. These objects have been catalogued as 2013-028A and B - the B object is the leading object in the video above. This would indicate the trailing object is the Persona satellite, the leading object the upper Soyuz stage.

Bringing the ATV to the ISS: a stepped process

The ATV-4 Albert Einstein, currently on it's way to the International Space Station (see images of passes over Leiden here), does not ascend in a linear fashion. The ascend towards the ISS is in phases.

Below is a diagram showing you how the orbital altitude of the ATV-4 spacecraft has developed over the past two days and will develop, if everything goes according to plan, over the coming few days untill it docks to the ISS at the 15th. As the orbit of the spacecraft is not neatly circular but somewhat an ellipse, values for the highest point (apogee) and lowest point (perigee) of the orbit are given.

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It might surprise you, but over the past two days the orbital altitude of ATV-4 has gradually come down, not up. You can see this in the diagram above. It concerns a slight orbital altitude decrease of just a few kilometers, no more. This is because the ATV  is currently just moving in a parking orbit around earth without major manoeuvering. As a result, the orbit currently slightly decays (it is slowly pulled in by Earth as a result of gravity and atmospheric drag): it is very slightly coming down!

A major manoeuvre to counter this will occur on June 10th, lifting the spacecraft up from approximately 250 km to approximately 290 km altitude. The orbit will then slightly decay to slightly lower altitudes again, as the ATV will again be drifting. More manoeuvres raising the orbit slightly to counter this orbital decay will occur on June 12th, but the major manoeuvres will be on the 14th and 15th. These latter are the manoevres which will bring the ATV up close to the orbital altitude of the ISS (see diagram above), first bringing it up to approximately 380 km altitude, and then to about 400 to 410 km, and close to the ISS. It will be somewhat in front of the ISS initially, and move closer to the ISS as the orbit is gently raised. A complicated set of manoeuvres then will bring the ATV to the ISS for docking.

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Note: diagrams constructed using orbital data for the ATV-4 kindly provided by ESA here.

Images and video of ESA's Space Cargo Ship ATV-4 'Albert Einstein' over Leiden

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ATV-4 passing over the historic observatory of Leiden, 1:21 UT

stack of 8 images

ESA successfully launched its 4th cargoship ATV-4 Albert Einstein from Kourou last night at 21:52 UT, loaded with cargo destined for the International Space Station ISS.

Following the launch it made two visible passes over Leiden, the first of these two hours after launch at 23:47 UT (1:47 am local time) and a second in morning twilight at 1:20 UT (3:20 am local time). The sky was clear and I could observe both passes well.

I used both my Canon EOS 60D photocamera and my WATEC video camera to image the passes. Above is a photograph shot during the second pass (1:21 UT), showing the ATV descending over the old historic Observatory of Leiden. The image is a stack of 8 images of 5 second exposure each, taken in rapid succession. The lens used was an EF 2.8/24mm.

Below is a video shot during the first pass at 23:47 UT. The ATV, faint at first but then quickly becoming quite bright, can be seen ascending just right of the house in the opening shots:



Note how from 50 seconds in the video onwards, TWO objects are visible: a fainter object (about magnitude +4) is leading the ATV by a few seconds. This is the Ariane upper stage. It is also visible on the photograph below, taken with an EF 2.0/35mm lens:

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ATV-4 was very bright on both passes and easily seen by the naked eye: magnitude +1 on the first pass and +0.5 on the second. It moved quite fast, being in a low orbit at an altitude of about 280 km.

In fact, ATV-4 made a third pass this nigh only 20 minutes after launch, near 22:12 UT (00:12 local time). As it was not entirely clear whether the ATV would be in earth shadow or illuminated  during this pass (this early in the launch it is at still very low altitude, below 150 km) I did watch, but as expected it was in earth shadow and not visible.

Below are two more pictures from the 23:47 pass. One shows the ATV ascending in the west, close to the Coma berenices cluster. The second one shows it descending in the east, and shows two other (unrelated) objects: and old Russian Soyuz r/b, and the US military satellite NOSS 2-3 E.

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