Past and future of the KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL constellation (part 3)

In my previous post I outlined in detail how information gleaned from past changes in the KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite constellation might yield a blueprint for changes to be expected in the coming months, following the launch of USA 245 (NROL-65, 2013-043A) into the same orbital plane as USA 186 (2005-042A) last August 28.

click image to enlarge

That discussion involved a look at past configurations, especially the relative positions of the orbital planes of the primary and secondary satellites in the constellation. Based on these past configurations, I concluded:

"After these orbital re-arrangements, USA 224 and USA 245 will be the primary satellites in the East resp. West plane. If history is to go by, their orbital planes will likely be separated by about 48 to 50 degrees. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will probably be 15 to 25 degrees east from that of USA 224. The orbital plane of USA 186, now the secondary satellite in the West plane, will most likely eventually be located 5 to 15 degrees west from that of USA 245."

This weekend I mapped the history of the KH-11 constellation in somewhat more detail than I did for my previous post (where I only looked at 2007, 2011 and 2013). Based on this more detailed analysis, I think I can constrain the distribution of orbital planes even further. The orbital plane of the secondary West plane satellite, a role USA 186 will take early 2014 if I am correct, will be located 10 degrees west of the primary West plane satellite. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will maintain to be located 20 degrees west east of the primary East plane satellite.

I can say this with some confidence because this seems to have been the intended nominal KH-11 constellation over the full past 8 years.

Since 2005 I keep an archive of the frequently updated classfd.tle orbit files calculated by Mike McCants: they are based on amateur observations that include mine. From my archives I extracted orbital elements for the KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites with an epoch in early July, for each year between 2005 and 2013. Next, since the orbit epochs in question sometimes differ by a few days, I used Scott Campbell's SatFit software to normalize them all to the same epoch, day yy182 (where yy is the year and 182 is the day number), i.e. July 1st of each year.

By normalizing to the same epoch, the RAAN values of the orbits become directly comparable. RAAN stands for Right Ascencion of the Ascending Node, and this value maps the orientation of the orbital plane in space for the epoch in question. More precisely, the RAAN value gives the angle of the orbital plane in earth-centered space, with respect to the direction of the Vernal equinox at the epoch in question.

click diagram to enlarge

The diagram above maps the RAAN values (in degrees) at July 1 for each KH-11 satellite in each year in the period 2005-2013. The diagram below plots the same data, but then expressed as the difference delta (in degrees) between the planes of the primary East and West plane satellites, as well as the delta between the planes of the primary plane satellites and the secondary plane satellites:

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A clear systematics can be seen to it. The primary East and West plane satellites (always the newest satellite in each plane) are 48 to 50 degrees apart. The secondary West plane satellite is in an orbital plane 10 degrees more westward than the primary West plane satellite. The secondary East plane satellite is in an orbital plane 20 degrees more eastward than the primary East plane satellite.

These are (of course) similar values to what I reported before, but now much more clearly constrained, documented over a larger time span, the diagrams visualizing the intended spatial arrangement very well. An arrangement that has basically been stable over the past 8 years. Changes in the arrangement amount to satellites switching roles (and orbital planes), but the basic orbital planes that make up the constellation remain the same.

The top diagram visualizes how satellites have switched from primary to secondary roles (and from orbital plane) as new satellites are added to the constellation.

For example, we see USA 129 (1996-072A) switch from the primary West plane to the secondary West plane in 2006-2007, following the launch of USA 186 (2005-042A) into the primary West plane. It does so by changing its orbital plane by 10 degrees. And we see USA 161 switch from the primary East plane to the secondary East plane in 2011-2012 (actually late August 2011), following the launch of USA 224 into the primary East plane. It does so by changing its orbital plane by 20 degrees.

A similar switch will no doubt occur early 2014 (see my previous post), when (if I am not wrong) USA 186 switches its orbital plane by 10 degrees from the primary West plane to the secondary West plane, once USA 245 (freshly launched into the primary West plane last August 28) becomes fully operational.

What can also be seen, is how USA 116 (1995-066A) started to drift away from its orbital plane after 2006, and was next de-orbited in 2008. The suggestion is that this satellite had almost ran out of fuel by 2006, as a result of which it was no longer an option to counter the drift by periodic manoeuvres. By 2008 it was drifting too far from the intended constellation, and the last fuel reserves were then used to de-orbit it. The secondary East plane was then left empty until three years later, in 2011, USA 161 (2001-044A) took on the role previously filled by USA 116. This happened after USA 224 (2011-002A) was launched as a replacement into the primary East plane. As of late 2011, the KH-11 constellation can hence be considered complete again (I have pointed out earlier, in my previous post, that the 2008-2011 gap in the secondary East plane was caused by the delay and then cancelling of the FIA optical program).

Note 12 Oct 2013: a follow-up on this post, discussing other orbital parameters than orbital plane, can now be read here.

On USA 245 and USA 129, and the future of the Keyhole constellation: an afterthought to my previous post

In my previous post I discussed how the new KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL USA 245, launched as NROL-65 on August 28,  has been inserted into the same orbital plane as USA 186, a KH-11 launched in 2005. I also discussed the current KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite constellation in that post.

Near the end of my post, I wrote:

"With the optical component of the FIA program cancelled, I suspect all of the remaining post-1996 Keyholes to remain operational for many years. For USA 129 though, the end should come one of these days, perhaps once USA 245 has been fully checked out and is put on operational status."

I have since formulated some more thoughts about the likely timetable and likely sequence of events, which are the topic of the current post.


Current and past KH-11 constellations

The KH-11 optical reconnaissance satellites occupy two orbital planes, a West and an East plane. I have already written about this before in my previous post. The image below (made with JSatTrak) gives a graphic depiction of the KH-11 constellation for early September 2013:

 click image to enlarge

With the addition of USA 245 on August 28, the West plane now consists of three satellites:

USA 129  (1996-072A)  operational, but near operational end?
USA 186  (2005-042A)  operational
USA 245  (2013-043A)  new addition being readied for operation

As I wrote before, USA 129 (1996-072A), the oldest KH-11 still on orbit, is now near an incredible 17 years of operational lifetime. With this, it has had by far the longest life-time of any KH-11 so far (see Ted Molczan's KH-11 lifetime data compilation here).

The East plane consists of two satellites:

USA 161  (2001-044A) operational
USA 224  (2011-002A) operational

A previous satellite in the East plane, USA 116 (1995-066A) was de-orbited in November 2008, some 7 years after USA 161 was added to that orbital plane. This was probably done because it had reached the end of its feasible lifetime (for example, because it was running out of fuel, or because vital components started to deteriorate). It had been operational for 13 years when de-orbited.

With the launch of USA 224 on 20 January 2011, slightly over two years later, the East plane was fitted with a second satellite again. This launch probably came so late, because the new FIA Optical program was originally supposed to take over from the CRYSTAL/KH-11 program by 2008. The FIA Optical program was however delayed and then cancelled, and the KH-11/CRYSTAL program reinvigorated.

The cancelling of the FIA Optical program, leaving the KH-11/CRYSTAL program without a follow-up, is why I think that the remaining Keyholes will remain in orbit for several more years, except for the exceptionally aged USA 129. The KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites are currently the only high-resolution optical reconnaissance satellites available to the NRO, apart from time hired on commercial imaging satellites (DigitalGlobe).

If the lifetime of USA 129 is a guide, the remaining operational KH-11 lifetimes will perhaps be up to five more years for USA 161, perhaps up to ten for USA 186, and perhaps up to 15 years or even more for USA 224 and USA 245.


Re-arrangements after the USA 224 launch in 2011

The history of the previous addition to the KH-11 constellation in 2011 might constitute a blueprint of what will happen the coming months, now USA 245 has been added to the constellation.

In 2011, USA 224 was initially launched into the same orbital plane as USA 161, similar to how USA 245 has now been launched into the same orbital plane as USA 186. A few months after the USA 224 launch the older East plane satellite (USA 161) manoeuvered to a lower orbit (or more accurately: a more circular orbit with lower apogee), on 24 August 2011. This was preceded by a number of smaller preparatory manoeuvres in the previous two months according to Ted Molczan (priv. com.).

This could indicate that USA 224 became fully operational about 5 to 7 months after launch. At that moment it became the primary satellite in the East plane, with USA 161 next taking on a new secondary role in an extended mission, as indicated by its manoeuvre into a different orbit.

Subsequently, the orbital plane of USA 161 was allowed to drift slightly eastward. As a result, the orbital plane of the older USA 161 in the East plane is currently located 20 degrees east of that of the newer USA 224,  in a similar vein as the orbital plane of the older USA 129 in the West plane is located somewhat westward of that of the newer USA 186.

(note: the saga of the significant August 2011 manoeuvre of USA 161 and its eventual recovery by observers including me, has been covered on this blog here, here and here).


Current and past plane separations

The orbital planes of the current main West plane satellite, USA 186, and the main East plane satellite, USA 224, are some 48 degrees apart. Likewise, before USA 224 took over from USA 161 mid-2011, the orbital planes of the then main West and East plane satellites USA 161 and USA 186 were 49 degrees apart. Mid 2007, the then main East and West plain satellites USA 161 and USA 186 were 50 degrees apart. This is all very similar, differing by only 1-2 degrees.

click image to enlarge

The orbital plane of the secondary West plane satellite, USA 129, is currently located 10 degrees west of the plane of the primary West plane satellite USA 186. The orbital plane of USA 161, the secondary satellite in the East plane, is located 20 degrees east of the orbital plane of the primary East plane satellite USA 224. Mid 2011 this was 2 resp. 12 degrees, and mid 2007 it was 5 resp. 26 degrees.

In table form, for the current constellation (September 2013):

Epoch 13250   
7 Sept 2013
 
----------------------------------------- 
satellite  RAAN    PER   APO   incl   
(name)     (deg)   (km) (km)   (deg)
-----------------------------------------

WEST PLANE

USA 129    303     308   770  97.56   S 
USA 186    313     262  1017  97.94   P
USA 245    314     262  1010  97.87   fP

EAST PLANE
   
USA 224    01      258  1023  97.88   P
USA 161    21      385   393  97.03   S
-----------------------------------------

P  = Primary
fP = future Primary
S  = Secondary


(In this table, RAAN stands for Right Ascension of the Ascending Node. This value determines the position of the orbital plane in earth-centered space with reference to the vernal equinox point at the epoch in question. PER and APO refer to the altitude of Perigeum and Apogeum, and incl is the orbital inclination. See also here. All data are based on orbital elements calculated by Mike McCants from amateur observations, including mine).

I do not know what the reason is for the asymmetry between the secondary East and West planes with relation to their primary planes (10 resp. 20 degrees currently), although I suspect it has to do with  solar angles at the imaged target locations (the West plane satellites pass in the morning, the East plane satellites somewhat after noon).


Future re-arrangements and expected USA 129 de-orbit

If the pattern after the addition of USA 224 in 2011 repeats in the West plane with USA 186 and the newly added USA 245, I expect USA 245 to become fully operational around February 2014. Around that time it will become the primary satellite in the West plane. Between  now and then, it will probably make more manoeuvers to finalize its intended orbit.

We can then next also expect USA 186 to attain a new secondary role and go into a new extended mission, by manoeuvering into a more circular orbit with lower perigee apogee somewhere in February or March 2014. Next, the orbital plane of USA 186 will probably be allowed to drift somewhat westward, as a result of which USA 186 will take up an orbital plane slightly west of that of USA 245.

Near that same time, and possibly somewhat earlier if time is really running out on it, we might see the de-orbit of USA 129.

After these orbital re-arrangements, USA 224 and USA 245 will be the primary satellites in the East resp. West plane. If history is to go by, their orbital planes will likely be separated by about 48 to 50 degrees. The orbital plane of the secondary East plane satellite, USA 161, will probably be 15 to 25 degrees east from that of USA 224. The orbital plane of USA 186, now the secondary satellite in the West plane, will most likely eventually be located 5 to 15 degrees west from that of USA 245. The  orbital planes of the outer (secondary) East plane and outer (secondary) West plane satellites, USA 161 and USA 186, will probably be separated by about 80 degrees.

(note added 15 Sept 2013: after a more comprehensive analyses of the orbital planes over 2005-2013, I believe the orbital plane of the secondary satellite in the West plane to be placed 10 degrees west of the primary West plane: and the orbital plane of the secondary satellite in the East plane to be placed 20 degrees East of the primary East plane. See my follow-up post here)

Of course, these are all just no more than educated guesses, based on past configurations and re-arrangements of the Keyhole/CRYSTAL constellation. Time will tell us whether this scenario will indeed play out as I outlined above. It is always possible that we will eventually see something completely different!


Sun-synchronous, repeating ground tracks

KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites move in sun-synchronous orbits that have their ground tracks more or less repeat after an integer number of days (1, 2, 4 or more days). The goal is to obtain comparative images of the same location taken a few days apart, taken with similar illumination by the sun (i.e., similar shadows). This aids the analysis of the images for the detection of any changes on sites of interest.

As I wrote in my previous post, the West plane Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites make evening and morning passes. The East plane Keyhole/CRYSTAL satellites make passes 1-2 hours after local noon and midnight.

USA 186 and USA 224, the current primary satellites in the West resp. East plane, repeat their ground tracks after 4 days (the 4:59 resonance). USA 129 and USA 161, the secondary satellites in the respective planes, repeat ground tracks after 12 resp. 7 days.

When USA 245 has taken over from USA 186 in the West plane by February-March 2014, we can expect it to have a 4-day ground track repeat interval. It will be interesting to see whether USA 186 will attain a 7-day ground track repeat interval similar to the current repeat interval of USA 161.

(Update added 15 september 2013: A further and well-illustrated update, documenting and constraining the constellation of orbital planes in past and present even further, can be read here).

(Note: I am indebted to Ted Molczan for comments on a draft of this post, and for providing me a spreadsheet to calculate the ground track repeat intervals. Any errors of fact or interpretation in this post are solely mine)

The orbit of USA 245 and the current KH-11 constellation

In the past two weeks (e.g. here, here and here) I have written about tracking USA 245 (2013-043A), the new KH-11 Keyhole (Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL) optical reconnaissance satellite launched as NROL-65 on August 28.

USA 245 has been launched in the same orbital plane as USA 186 (2005-042A), a KH-11 Keyhole launched on 19 October 2005. In time, it is therefore probably intended to replace this satellite.

click image to enlarge

The diagram above (made with JSatTrak and using our amateur derived orbits for the two satellites) shows the orbital similarity between USA 186 and USA 245. The orbital plane is the same and the orbital altitudes are similar (and will probably be even more similar in the future, after more USA 245 orbital manoeuvering). USA 245 (white) is currently in a 262 x 1010 km, 97.87 degree inclined orbit. USA 186 (green) is in a 263 x 1017, 97.93 degree inclined orbit.

The constellation of on-orbit KH-11 Keyholes now counts five satellites:

USA 129  (1996-072A)
USA 161  (2001-044A)
USA 186  (2005-042A)
USA 224  (2011-002A)
USA 245  (2013-043A)

These operate in two rather loose orbital planes. One, sometimes called the "West plane", produces passes in the local evening and morning, around 10 am and 9 pm local time. To this plane belong USA 129, USA 186 and the new USA 245. The other plane, sometimes called the "East plane", produces passes one to two hours after local noon and local midnight, around 1 am and 2 pm local time. This plane is occupied by USA 224 and USA 161.

The orbits of all the Keyholes currently in orbit are pictured below, with the two orbital planes well visible left and right of the center meridian:

click image to enlarge

Of the Keyholes still in orbit and presumably operational (as they are periodically reboosted to maintain their operational configuration), USA 129, launched on 20 December 1996, has been on orbit for almost 17 years now. As can be seen in this table of data compiled by Ted Molczan, this is the longest operational lifetime of any of the KH-11 Keyholes so far. It will be interesting to see how long they will keep it flying: it's last predecessor, USA 116 (1995-066A), was de-orbitted on 19 October 2008.

With the optical component of the FIA program cancelled, I suspect all of the remaining post-1996 Keyholes to remain operational for many years. For USA 129 though, the end should come one of these days, perhaps once USA 245 has been fully checked out and is put on operational status.

(note added 14 Sep 2013: this post has a long follow-up post here, detailing past configurations of the KH-11/CRYSTAL constellation, and how I expect to see the satellite configuration re-arranged early 2014, when USA 245 becomes fully operational)

More tracking of USA 245, and being flashed by ALOS

After my observations in the hours after launch on August the 28th and my observations on September 3, I observed the newly launched KH-11 Keyhole USA 245 (NROL-65, 2013-043A) again yesterday evening.

click image to enlarge

It was brighter yesterday than during my previous observations, this time reaching an easy naked-eye brightness. Near 20:38:15 UTC it slowly brightened to mag.+1. Above is one of my images, showing it as it traverses the northern part of Cygnus.

Ten minutes earlier, I observed USA 186 (2005-042A), the KH-11 Keyhole launched in 2005 that USA 245 in time is meant to replace. For the moment, they probably will operate together in the same orbital plane for several years. The image below shows it traversing Cepheus.

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After observing USA 186 and while waiting for USA 245, a very bright (up to mag. 0), slowly and irregularly flaring object appeared near 20:33 UT. It turned out to be ALOS (2006-002A), the Japanese Earth Observation satellite that malfunctioned in 2011. It evidently is slowly tumbling. Below are two images, showing the irregular brightness variation:

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Tracking USA 245 (NROL-65)

In my previous post I blogged about observations of NROL-65, the new KH-11 Keyhole optical reconnaissance satellite launched on 28 August. As a satellite, it now has the designation USA 245 (NROL-65 was the launch number, i.e. NRO Launch 65).

I already blogged about how our small bunch of dedicated amateur trackers located and followed this classified satellite within hours after launch (I myself observed it on it's second revolution, 3 hours after launch). Since then, we have kept following it, documenting a number of orbital manoeuvres.

On the evening of August 30 Russell Eberst in Scotland and Cees Bassa in the Netherlands noted the satellite was notably late on the predictions, suggesting a manoeuvre. Observations by several observers (communicated on the SeeSat list) analyzed by Ted Molczan in Canada show it  manoeuvred on August 30 near 9:15 UTC from a 252 x 996 km into a 254 x 1002 km orbit.

A day later, on August 31 near 18:30 UTC, it manoeuvered again, to an approximately 259 x 1007 km orbit. It will probably manoeuvre more in the following days.

click image to enlarge

I observed USA 245 yesterday evening, under challenging conditions: an untimely field of very thin clouds passed just as USA 245 was passing over Leiden, at an elevation of about 40 degrees in the west. The image above shows the trail between thin clouds (star field is in Hercules).

The satellite now has the Cospar code 2013-043A, and by looking at the omissions in the SSC catalogue numbering we know it has SSC ('NORAD') number 39232.

USA 245 (NROL-65), the new KH-11 Keyhole, seen 3 hours after launch

On 28 August 2013 at 18:03 UTC, a Delta IV-H with a classified NRO payload lifted off from Vandenberg AFB as NRO Launch 65 (NROL-65). It is widely believed that the payload is a KH-11/KH-12 Keyhole optical reconnaissance satellite.

1.5 hours after launch at the completion of its first orbit,  the upper stage and the payload were seen by Cees Bassa from the Netherlands, Björn Gimle in Sweden, Alexander Repnoy in the Ukraine and Jon Mikel in Spain .

The sky was still too bright in the western Netherlands during this pass. But on a second pass, three hours (two orbital revolutions) after launch, I captured the payload on photo and video when it made a fine near-Zenith pass over Leiden. It was faint, near mag. +4.5. Conditions were fair but not perfect: the sky was slightly hazy.

click image to enlarge

The image above shows it traversing Lyra - the bright star is Vega. The image was shot with the F2.5/50mm Macro lens.

In the video below (with which YouTube unfortunately did not do a particularly good job, the original video is much better quality) shows it rising over the roof and passing near Altair, then shows a clip of it traversing Lyra. It was shot with the WATEC 902H and a 1.4/25mm lens.




Russell Eberst in Scotland and Cees Bassa in the Netherlands captured it during the same pass as well. Since then, the payload (the upper stage has been deorbited after the first revolution) was also seen by Ted Molczan in Toronto, Canada and filmed by Kevin Fetter in Canada.

Over the next few days, we will watch it finalizing its intended orbit. The orbital plane is the same as that of USA 186 (2005-042A), an earlier KH-11 launched in 2005.

Both the photography and video yielded a set of positional data that along with observations by other observers helped Ted Molczan to define a preliminary orbit.

The "Piece of MIR" that quite probably isn't

During the previous weekend, a story appeared in several news outlets (e.g. here and here and here) in which a man from Amesbury, Massachusetts, claims to have found a strange rock in a riverbed which "NASA" (according to the story) next identified as either a piece of the Russian space station MIR or a piece of "MIR era space debris" (the latter depending on the news outlet).

MIR was a Russian Space Station, in many ways the fore-runner of the ISS, which was de-orbited in March 2001.

While the story was quickly and uncritically proliferated by several news outlets (even RIA Novosti), many space and satellite buffs (including this blog's author) were suspicious of the claims right away. The object, a glassy piece of rock, looked nothing like a genuine piece of space debris. And the specific link to MIR or a MIR-era Russian spacecraft seemed dubious in the absence of a recognizable machine part morphology or machine part registration number.

Here are a couple of pictures of the object, which are screenshots from the CBS Boston video news report here:

The man who reportedly found it, claims he picked it up from the mud at low tide several years ago at a point where his backyard touches on the banks of the Merrimack river. It was a greenish glassy rock "covered in mud".

He put it under a tree in his yard where it sat for several years until his sister in law, who knew someone at NASA, sent it to that person for analysis. Or so the story goes. Many months later, the object was returned with a letter purporting to be from a NASA engineer called "George Leussis". In this letter it was identified as "a piece of MIR" or ballast from a MIR-era Russian spacecraft.

But is it? To be frank: most likely it is not.

First of all, while ballast is sometimes indeed added to space launches (to let the launch mass match the rocket performance), this is not in the form of rock. Such ballast is usually water (in a tank), sand, or metal. And glass is not a major component of spacecraft (glass fiber is though). Certainly not in seizable chunks.

More important than that: what are the reasons to think this is space debris in the first place? It doesn't look like a part of a spacecraft at all. It looks like a glassy rock.

The piece looks like a silicate glass, with clear signs of weathering (e.g. the pitting on the surface, the dull glossy shine), and clear conchoidal flaking (best seen on the third picture above).  Contrary to the impression given by the news reports, I can see no evidence of a "fiery entry through the atmosphere" on the pictures of the piece. It looks like a smelt alright, but contrary to what many people think that is not what you get from an atmospheric reentry. Pieces will ablate and will get a thin fusion crust (thin melt layer) just like meteorites, but they do not melt completely and next solidify into a clump again.

The conchoidal fracturing certainly would have to have taken place after any melting, and given that the flaked surface has the same green-brown colour there, the latter colour is certainly not due to any superficial burning.

To be honest the object looks very much like either one of two things (which can look quite alike on photographs, since both are silicate melts):

1) a piece of  obsidian (volcanic glass);
2) a piece of industrial silicate slag.

The first is a natural material: the second is man-made waste. Both basically consist of solidified clumps of glass and often have a dark blackish, greyish, brownish or greenish colour. They can show flow lines in the glass, vesicles, and are subject to weathering phenomena that include surface pitting from dissolution. All of which can be seen on the pictures of the object in question.

So what actually traces this clump of silicate melt to the Russian space program rather than a more earthly origin? The short answer: apparently nothing.

A molten silicate is not unique to products of the Russian space program. In fact it is not likely to be a product of any space program. It is very ubiquitous on earth as industrial waste, as volcanic product etcetera. Only if a geologist can ascertain the object is none of those, then one can think of another, more wilder and rare origin - such as Russian space "ballast". Note that none of the news stories mentions a geologist looking at the object - they only mention a NASA engineer (but: see below!).

The next claim in the story is the specific link to the Russian space program (rather than space debris in general) - Mir or Progress. In the absence of a recognizable morphology or a machine part number, this link is completely uncorroborated.

At the least, I would like to see a clear chemical analysis with an argument why the composition would uniquely point to the Russian space program, as opposed to a common terrestrial origin (i.e. an industrial slag or a volcanic glass).

The letter quoted in one of the news articles claims such, but in vague and  ambiguous wording. It seems to say the material is terrestrial, and only the "green colour and strange properties" according to the letter point to it having been "subjected to a fall from low Earth orbit". The green colour is however certainly not unusual for industrial silicate slag and volcanic glass, and I see no "strange properties" in the published images of the rock nor the descriptions of the rock that would point to it having experienced an atmospheric entry (or would be unusual for an industrial silicate slag or volcanic glass). Moreover: the apparent "letter from NASA"  has since come under suspicion.

For here is the clincher: it is claimed that the identification was made by a NASA engineer called George Luessis. An engineer called George Luessis indeed works for NASA (he was part of the Chandra project), BUT: upon being asked by Harvard astrophysicist and space buff Jonathan McDowell, he denies any knowledge of this object and the letter and says he didn't make this identification. 

So who did make that identification then? Who wrote that letter, if truely there is a letter? Another engineer called George Luessis working for NASA?

Basically, at this point this whole story is falling to (green, glassy) pieces. The rock looks like material that is ubiquitous on Earth. There is nothing in the morphology to link it to a Space Program (let alone the Russian Space Program), i.e. nothing in the composition and morphology to think it is space debris. In fact, there is much in the morphology that makes that highly unlikely. And it is not clear who at NASA, if anyone at all, analysed the rock and "identified" it as "space debris". There is/was a George Luessis working at NASA, but it was not him. So who?

It can be seriously doubted that this green glassy rock is a piece of space debris. There is not a shred of verifiable evidence for it and much speaks against it.

Fireball seen over Eastern Australia, 13 June 2013 6:05 pm AEST, was NOT the decay of Molniya 3-53

On June 13, 2013, near 6:05 pm local time (AEST - corresponding to 10:05 UTC), many people in Eastern Australia observed a bright fast light falling down in the sky. It was even recorded by one of those new-fangled dashboard-cams (one of these days, I must get me one for my bike).

The Australian news website "The Chronicle" claims it was a satellite decay - more exactly, that of the Russian Molniya platform Molniya 3-53 (2003-029A).

It was however most definitely not a satellite decay.

All descriptions talk about a fast object. The dashcam video shows a pretty fast fireball indeed.

It is much too fast to be a decaying satellite. The latter move at relatively slow speeds - 8.5 km/s. At that speed, it takes them several minutes to traverse your sky, not just a few seconds. As low over the horizon as the dashcam video shows it, it would have been very, very slow, taking several tens of seconds to traverse the distance it does in the video.

In addition to it being too fast to be a satellite decay, the proposed connection to Molniya 3-53 can be rejected right away.

First: Molniya 3-53 did not decay on June 13. Orbital data by Strategic Space Command ("NORAD") show it was still in orbit in the early hours of June 15 - two days after the Australian fireball. At the moment of writing (12 UTC, June 15), the last available orbit is for epoch 13166.42726929 ( = 15 June 2013, 10:15 UTC). The moment of decay is currently predicted as 15 June 14:04 UTC, with an uncertainty of 2 hours. [Update 22/6: SSC's final TIP-message issued 15 June 15:30 UTC gives 15 June, 14:10 UTC +/- 26 minutes for the moment of decay)

Now, given that the apogee of the satellite was at a very low altitude already, could it have been the case that it briefly started to burn but survived after it passed perigee?

The answer is "no" in this case and brings us to a second point against the identification with this satellite: Molniya 3-53 was not over Australia at June 13, 10:05 UTC. It was at very high altitude over Northern Europe at that time (see map below). It would not pass over (central) Australia untill 10:55 UTC (6:55 pm AEST), i.e. a full hour later than the fireball sighting.

So what was it then? Given the speed, it is very clear this was a meteoric fireball, a small piece of cosmic rock or ice (debris from a comet or an asteroid) entering the atmosphere.

ATV-4 and ISS, 15 hours before docking (and Progress too)

After a few cloudy and rainy days, it miraculously cleared in the afternoon of the 14th. This allowed me a last view on the ATV-4 before docking to the International Space Station ISS.

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I observed two passes. The first was in very deep evening twilight (sun at -6 degrees altitude) at 22:56 local time (20:56 UT). ISS and ATV-4 passed almost right overhead, the ATV slightly over 2 minutes in time behind ISS and both easily visible. I had set up my video equipment, but forgot to press the "record" button....

The next pass was under a darker sky, at 00:32 local time (22:32 UT). I walked a few tens of yards to the city moat to see it (I have better view at low elevations there). ISS and ATV-4 attained a maximum elevation of 28 degrees in the S-SW. The photograph above is from that pass. Using the 2.8/17-50 mm Tamron at the 17 mm setting, I could just catch ISS and ATV in one image - with a stray old Russian military satellite as a bonus (Kosmos 1315 (1981-103A), a defunct Tselina-D ELINT launched in 1981. A Japanese H-2A r/b briefly became bright as well and is visible in some images (but not the one above).



I had also set up the video, filming from my GF's appartment. About 16 minutes before the ISS pass, I filmed Progress M-19M (2013-007A). This cargoship, now filled with trash, was undocked from the ISS a few days ago to make room for the ATV. It will reenter on June 19th. In the video above, while the Progess is passing, look for a brief bright flash just below the image center at 22:13:36. This is a flashing geostationary satellite (probably NSTAR A, 1995-044A). The video next cuts to the ISS pass 16 minutes later, followed by ATV-4 and a couple of bats in the last seconds of the video.

The image below is a stack of 28 photographs, showing ATV-4, the ISS, Kosmos 1315 (barely) and the H-2A r/b (top):

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Another fine pass of ATV-4, and objects from a recent Russian Persona launch

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Following my observations of June 5-6 (see photo's and video here) and a visual observation on June 6-7, yet another fine sighting of the ATV-4 Albert Einstein was done yesterday around local midnight. First I watched the ISS pass, followed 17 minutes later by the ATV. The image above, which is a stack of six images of 5 seconds exposure each (Canon EOS 60D + EF 2.8/24mm, 640 ISO), shows the ATV-4 ascending over the rooftops as seen from the courtyard of my home in Leiden.

I also obtained video again using the WATEC. The video below shows part of the passof the ATV, and then continues with some footage of the earlier ISS pass. While the ISS is ascending over the roof, two other objects can be seen (from 1:28 in the video onwards), chasing each other from left to right just over the rooftops, in a trajectory perpendicular to that of the ISS:



These two objects are related to the launch of Kosmos 2486, a Russian military Persona satellite, the Russian version of the US Keyhole optical reconnaisance satellites. Kosmos 2486 was launched 3.5 hours before this sighting (at 18:37 UTC on June 7th) by a Soyuz rocket from Plesetsk. These objects have been catalogued as 2013-028A and B - the B object is the leading object in the video above. This would indicate the trailing object is the Persona satellite, the leading object the upper Soyuz stage.

Bringing the ATV to the ISS: a stepped process

The ATV-4 Albert Einstein, currently on it's way to the International Space Station (see images of passes over Leiden here), does not ascend in a linear fashion. The ascend towards the ISS is in phases.

Below is a diagram showing you how the orbital altitude of the ATV-4 spacecraft has developed over the past two days and will develop, if everything goes according to plan, over the coming few days untill it docks to the ISS at the 15th. As the orbit of the spacecraft is not neatly circular but somewhat an ellipse, values for the highest point (apogee) and lowest point (perigee) of the orbit are given.

click diagram to enlarge

It might surprise you, but over the past two days the orbital altitude of ATV-4 has gradually come down, not up. You can see this in the diagram above. It concerns a slight orbital altitude decrease of just a few kilometers, no more. This is because the ATV  is currently just moving in a parking orbit around earth without major manoeuvering. As a result, the orbit currently slightly decays (it is slowly pulled in by Earth as a result of gravity and atmospheric drag): it is very slightly coming down!

A major manoeuvre to counter this will occur on June 10th, lifting the spacecraft up from approximately 250 km to approximately 290 km altitude. The orbit will then slightly decay to slightly lower altitudes again, as the ATV will again be drifting. More manoeuvres raising the orbit slightly to counter this orbital decay will occur on June 12th, but the major manoeuvres will be on the 14th and 15th. These latter are the manoevres which will bring the ATV up close to the orbital altitude of the ISS (see diagram above), first bringing it up to approximately 380 km altitude, and then to about 400 to 410 km, and close to the ISS. It will be somewhat in front of the ISS initially, and move closer to the ISS as the orbit is gently raised. A complicated set of manoeuvres then will bring the ATV to the ISS for docking.

click diagram to enlarge

Note: diagrams constructed using orbital data for the ATV-4 kindly provided by ESA here.

Images and video of ESA's Space Cargo Ship ATV-4 'Albert Einstein' over Leiden

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ATV-4 passing over the historic observatory of Leiden, 1:21 UT

stack of 8 images

ESA successfully launched its 4th cargoship ATV-4 Albert Einstein from Kourou last night at 21:52 UT, loaded with cargo destined for the International Space Station ISS.

Following the launch it made two visible passes over Leiden, the first of these two hours after launch at 23:47 UT (1:47 am local time) and a second in morning twilight at 1:20 UT (3:20 am local time). The sky was clear and I could observe both passes well.

I used both my Canon EOS 60D photocamera and my WATEC video camera to image the passes. Above is a photograph shot during the second pass (1:21 UT), showing the ATV descending over the old historic Observatory of Leiden. The image is a stack of 8 images of 5 second exposure each, taken in rapid succession. The lens used was an EF 2.8/24mm.

Below is a video shot during the first pass at 23:47 UT. The ATV, faint at first but then quickly becoming quite bright, can be seen ascending just right of the house in the opening shots:



Note how from 50 seconds in the video onwards, TWO objects are visible: a fainter object (about magnitude +4) is leading the ATV by a few seconds. This is the Ariane upper stage. It is also visible on the photograph below, taken with an EF 2.0/35mm lens:

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ATV-4 was very bright on both passes and easily seen by the naked eye: magnitude +1 on the first pass and +0.5 on the second. It moved quite fast, being in a low orbit at an altitude of about 280 km.

In fact, ATV-4 made a third pass this nigh only 20 minutes after launch, near 22:12 UT (00:12 local time). As it was not entirely clear whether the ATV would be in earth shadow or illuminated  during this pass (this early in the launch it is at still very low altitude, below 150 km) I did watch, but as expected it was in earth shadow and not visible.

Below are two more pictures from the 23:47 pass. One shows the ATV ascending in the west, close to the Coma berenices cluster. The second one shows it descending in the east, and shows two other (unrelated) objects: and old Russian Soyuz r/b, and the US military satellite NOSS 2-3 E.

click images to enlarge

Tracking ESA's ATV-4 "Albert Einstein" the coming nights

If all goes well, ESA's cargoship ATV-4 "Albert Einstein" will be launched from Kourou on top of an Ariane rocket tonight at 23:52 CEST (21:52 UTC). It will dock to the International Space Station ISS on 15 June. A live webcast of the launch will be featured here.

During the 10 days it takes to get to the ISS, it will make several visible passes over Europe, starting the coming night (June 5/6). On the night of June 14/15, it will be possible to see ATV-4 and the ISS pass around the same time, closing in on each other just hours before docking.

For those of you who want to try to photograph an ATV pass themselves, I have written a tutorial, that is featured on ESA's ATV weblog.

Visible passes for NW Europe the coming night (June 5/6) occur at approximately:

* 01:47 CEST (23:47 UTC)
This is a pass that is very favourable for the UK, Netherlands and mid-Germany. In the Netherlands we will see the ATV pass right through the zenit! Here is a trajectory card (valid for Leiden, the Netherlands: elsewhere in Europe the trajectory will be different! For elsewhere in the Netherlands, the trajectory might slightly shift) and a map of the relevant groundtrack:

* 03:20 CEST (01:20 UTC)
A pass in twilight over a.o. the southern UK and France (but also visible from the Netherlands and Germany):

Please note that the spacecraft is actively manoeuvering, and this means that the listed pass times are approximate: there might be differences up to a few minutes with the real pass times.

If you want to get an accurate sky trajectory map for your own location, then Heavens-Above should have predictions available from the moment of launch. A live ground tracking application is available here (it will tell you over which part of the globe the ATV is, but not where in your sky however).

If your are able to run your own predictions (e.g. with Heavensat), then ESA has kindly made TLE's available here.

The relevant TLE for tonight (5/6 June) is:

ATV-4
1 00000U 13156A   13156.95908050  .00000000  00000-0  11891-3 0  0008
2 00000 051.6512 167.2588 0016658 269.7524 354.7951 16.02929810 00002

Depending on the illumination conditions, the ATV can reach mag. +1 and hence be easily visible by the naked eye during a favourable pass.

PAN has moved again [UPDATED]

On April 23 I wrote the following about PAN (2009-047A) and its frequent relocations in my post here:

"No doubt it will move again in the future, perhaps in May as December and May are frequently the months the satellite is moved"

I was very right with the "perhaps in May": PAN is on the move again!

Greg Roberts observing from South-Africa noted it missing at its old position on April 29. He recovered it on May 4th near the commercial geostationary Comsat Yamal 404. It is not (yet) clear whether that is its final position, or whether it is still drifting. Greg next initially thought he recovered it near the commercial comsat Yamal 404 on imagery from May 4th, but that turned out to be a mistake: as Mike McCants pointed out, the object in question was in reality the commercial geosat GSAT 8.

Ian Roberts, another South African observer, then located what likely indeed is PAN near Intelsat 12 on May 6th. Greg Roberts then managed to find it in his earlier images of May 4th as well, confirming Ian's observations.

Just goes to show that even the most secret of all satellites cannot escape the inquisitive eyes of a dedicated amateur.

No, fragments of the Tunguska object have not been found - or at least there is no real positive proof of that

The twittersphere, science news sites and mailinglists are abuzz with the story that fragments of the object that caused the famous 30 June 1908 Tunguska explosion have been found.

Most of them link to this post on the MIT Technology Review blog, which bases itself on this manuscript posted to Arxiv.org by  a Russian named Andrei Zlobin.

To cut it short: it is highly unlikely the objects in question, which were reportedly retrieved from shoal sediments of the Khusmo river, are fragments of the Tunguska object. The "evidence" provided is wholly unsatisfactory. I am convinced the manuscript will not pass peer review (note that papers posted on Arxiv.org are manuscripts: the paper in question hasn't been accepted for publication by any scientific journal yet. And it shouldn't be, in my opinion).

In my opinion the pictured objects look like normal terrestrial iron hydroxide concretions, such as you can find in sandy soils with fluctuating water table and in bogs (and in river sediments that sample such environments). Morphologically they are quite typical for such concretions, especially specimens #3 and #1.

The shell-like character (e.g. #3) is characteristic, as such concretions often form as layers around a core of other material. So I see no reason at all to think these must instead be meteoritic.

In addition, the arxiv paper doesn't give any chemical analysis at all in support of the suggestion these are meteoritic particles. This while such an analysis is the least what you would expect for a claim like this.

The arxiv paper doesn't give any clear chronostratigraphical links between these particles and 1908 (and with this the Tunguska explosion) either. Why should this be particles from the 1908 explosion? What points to that particular origin for these particles? Do they come from sediments that are unambiguously dated to 1908? Zlobin gives no arguments at all.

In other words: this is highly dubious and for now a totally unbelievable story. It is a pitty that many science news websites, starting with the MIT Technology Review but also including Space.com are so uncritically disseminating this Arxiv.org manuscript.

PANSTARRS and Polar Light - Finland, March 2013

From 17 to 24 March I was in Finland, having fun in the snow at the Arctic circle. We stayed at Basecamp Oulanka at Juumajärvi, 66.26 N, from where we did snowshoe hikes, a husky sled tour, some cross-country skiing, and a trip to a world-famous bird shelter in order to see the Golden Eagle.

Of course, when going to the Arctic circle you hope for Aurora Borealis - the Northern Lights. I had seen Northern Lights before, from the Netherlands (where it is rare but on occasion can be seen), and it was stunning. So my hopes were high for an even better Arctic display. In addition, comet PANSTARRS was slowly moving out of the solar glare around that time. My secret mission: to get an image of the comet with Northern lights.

Mission accomplished, on the very first evening:

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The photograph is a stitch of two images made with the EOS 60D and a Tamron 17-50mm at 17mm. It was made in late evening twilight of March 17th, the start of an evening with incredible Northern Lights. An M1-class solar flare on the 15th resulted in an earth-directed CME which arrived at the 17th - our first evening in Finland. The result: astonishing Aurora all over the sky, with two especially intense periods between 20-21h local time and around local midnight. The first peak was very colorfull, with a.o. deep purples in addition to green. During the second peak near midnight, it was mostly green Aurora It was very lively, significantly changing on sub-second scales. Rays, dancing curtains, multiple corona's, it was all visible. Seeing Northern Lights in Orion was quite special too.

This all with friendly temperatures of -25 C... As I repeatedly worked the camera with my gloves off, my fingers got numbed, resulting in some images later that night where the camera had moved during exposure, because I hadn't thightened the clampscrews of the tripod head enough. I also used one of my woolen gloves to put the Aputure timer in, as the batteries suffered from the cold. The camera itself help up remarkably well though.

During the first peak I took pictures from the nearby lake Juuma: during the second peak I photographed from the basecamp itself, using the wooden chalets to create some scenic foregrounds. Lenses used were a SamYang 3.5/8mm semi fish-eye, and the 17-50mm Tamron. Here are some pictures (exposures range from 2 to 10 seconds:

click images to enlarge

I took a number of series for a time lapse, resulting in this movie (put it on HD and full-screen: it is 1200x800 pixels):


As it turned out, that night was the only night with aurora that week - but what a splendid show it was! The local Fin people claimed it was the best show of the season.

The next evening, I targetted comet 2011 L4 PANSTARRS in evening twilight, using the Zeiss 2.8/180mm. The following image is a stack of 9 images of 1s each, taken from an unguided stationary tripod:

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Just before leaving for Finalnd, I already had some views of the comet from (near) my home town Leiden in the Netherlands as well. This image was shot on March 12th from the Cronesteyn polder just east of Leiden:

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After I returned from Finland, I took a last picture of the comet in the evening of April 2nd, when it was close to M31, the Andromeda Galaxy. This image is a stack of 21 images of 1s each taken with a SamYang 1.4/85mm at F2.8. I had to do quite some image processing, as the images were suffering from light pollution:

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PAN and Mentor 4 in March

Finally, an update on my observing activities in March. With apologies that it took so long.

In this post, early March observations of the classified geostationary satellites PAN and Mentor 4 will feature. In a second post following this one, I will report on some non-satellite observations: comet PANSTARRS and a fabulous display of Aurora borealis which I observed from Finland.


PAN and Mentor 4

As I noted on the blog before, weather has been extremely bad here since mid November 2012. Many nights were clouded, we had unusual amounts of snow, and spring set in very late (in fact, only last week).

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The few clear nights we had, usually coincided with a bright moon in the sky. As wintertime is a bad time for LEO objects at latitude 52N  (the visibility window is very short, restricted to twilight) the focus is on objects in GEO during this season: but that necessitates clear moonless nights....

On the evening of March 4 I did an attempt, which was cut short when clouds and haze moved in. The pictures came out bad, but I did manage to image PAN (2009-047A) and Mentor 4 (2009-001A), as can be seen in the picture above. Mentor 4 is a SIGINT: PAN probably is too.

PAN was moved again in December-January, this time taking up position at 42.5 E close to the commercial telecom sat Nigcomsat 1R.

Since its launch in 2009, this enigmatic satellite has frequently moved, and this is unusual. PAN was stationed at 33.0 E from late 2009 to May 2010 and then was moved to 38.0 E. It was moved again to 49.0 E in December 2010, followed by a move to 44.9 E in the spring of 2011. Then it was relocated to 39.1 E in the summer of 2011 and next moved to 52.5 E somewhere between late October 2011 and January 2012. In May 2012 it was moved back to 38.0 E. In December 2012, it moved to 42.5 E. No doubt it will move again in the future, perhaps in May as December and May are frequently the months the satellite is moved.

Note: the listed positions for PAN are based on privately archived TLE's for the satellite. The TLE source is Mike McCants and the TLE's are based on amateur observations of the satellite, notably by Greg Roberts (S-Africa), Peter Wakelin (UK), Ian Roberts (s-Africa) and me (Netherlands).

The discovery of asteroid 2013 GM21

I am way behind with my reporting on this blog, for which I apologize. I still have satellite observations from early March to report, as well as (somewhat off-topic) observations of comet 2011 L4 PANSTARRS and spectacular Aurora borealis (Northern Lights) from Finland mid March. For various reasons, I did not come to that yet. Maybe coming weekend...

Meanwhile, a short report on my latest asteroid discovery: 2013 GM21, which was published in the DOU MPEC K13-G54 today (Apr 12, 2013: look for object K13G21M).

On  April 6th, I was on my own initiative (and successfully) trying to get follow-up observations on three objects (2013 EZ102, 2013 EB103 and 2013 EC103) which Krisztian Sarneczky and I discovered in the Konkoly survey from MPC 461 (the 60-cm Schmidt of Konkoly, HU) mid-March. I was "remotely" using the 81-cm Schulman telescope of the Mt. Lemon Sky Center (MPC G84) for that, one of the telescopes in the SSO Network.

In the images that should (and did) contain 2013 EZ102, I found two other moving objects. Both were unidentified - i.e., they were not in the MPCOrb asteroid database of the IAU Minor Planet Center and could be new discoveries! So they were submitted to the MPC with the temporary designations LaMa515 and LaMa516.

One of these (LaMa515) turned out to have been observed by another observatory just days before, so that one was not a new discovery: the other observatory alas beat me to it.

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The second object however, a mag +19.5 to +20 object I temporarily designated LaMa516 moving quite close to 2013 EZ102 in the images, turned out to be truely new: my observations of April 6th were the first! It can be seen in the blink above, which shows you a small part of the April 6th discovery images. 2013 EZ102 is in the images too.

I next obtained new images, based on a very rough search orbit fit, on April 7th, 8th and on April 11th, again using the 81-cm telescope of MPC G84. As a result, it was formally MPEC-ed today by the MPC as 2013 GM21: my second asteroid discovery using a "remote" telescope! And my 69th asteroid discovery in total (and 5th in 2013, the other four being in the Konkoly survey. For a full list of my discoveries see here).

The asteroid is a borderline Maria family main belt asteroid. With H=16.8, it is an estimated 1.5 km large. It has the following orbital elements (source: MPC):

2013 GM21

Epoch 2013 Mar. 29.0 TT = JDT 2456380.5   MPC
M 351.06235              (2000.0) 

n   0.24233744     Peri.   39.90632             
a   2.5479390      Node   164.25356             
e   0.0734092      Incl.   17.12483

q   2.3608968      T       2456417.38101 JDT 

P   4.07           H   16.8 

From 13 observations 2013 Apr. 6-11.

click images to enlarge

As can be seen in the orbital plots, the orbit is well inclined to the ecliptic. I discovered it when it was in opposition and close to perihelion of its orbit, these two factors combining in a maximum brightness for the object. This is basically the same situation as with my earlier discovery 2012 SM58.