Again the FIA Radar 1 (NROL-41)

Last night was frosty and very, very clear. In the evening, I took pictures of the KH-12 USA 129 (96-072A), the HEO SDS 3-4 USA 179 (04-034A) and the geostationary ELINT USA 202/Mentor 4 (09-001A), low over the southeastern horizon. At the time of observation, it was some 4 degrees south of Jupiter.

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I took a quick shot at Jupiter too with the Carl Zeiss Sonnar MC 2.8/180, to capture the moons of Jupiter. Here is the image, at 100% pixel resolution:

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In the early morning, at 5:18 am local time, I watched and photographed a very fine pass of the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) again. It attained a maximum brightness of +3.5 while crossing through Cassiopeia. Below is an image, showing the 'W' of Cassiopeia and the FIA Radar 1 trail (movement is from top to bottom).

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At last the FIA Radar 1 (NROL-41), and the first images with the new Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180

Last weekend saw my first observation, at last, of the payload of the NROL-41 launch: the FIA Radar 1 (2010-046A). At 4:25 am local time it made a pass in the northern sky over Polaris, and became visible to the naked eye at a brightness of mag +3.5. Below is one of the two pictures, plus a picture of the launch patch of NROL-41.

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The orbit of the satellite is unusual, as it is retrograde, and in fact resembles a retrograde version of the Lacrosse orbits. There is some speculation as to the why of this.

The object currently is actively manoeuvring: when I captured it, it was 34 seconds late with regard to just one day old elements after one such manoeuvre. The apparent intention is to create a frozen orbit.


A new lens added to the equipment

This weekend saw the first active use of a new piece of optics added to the repertoire: an old, DDR-made, Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180mm lens. The lens itself is renowned, for its sharpness. Originally made for 6x7 cameras, it provides very good sharpness from edge to edge on a DSLR image. Fitted with a P6 to EOS adapter, it works perfectly on my Canon EOS 450D. It yields almost twice the aperture of my EF 100/2.8, and hence will be used to capture faint distant objects such as Molniya orbit objects. The lens is of very heavy build: solid metal and glass with no plastics. It weights 1.5 kg!

Below is an image of the optics I am now using in my observations: a Canon EF 2.5/50 mm Macro used for LEO and some GEO objects; a Canon EF 2.8/100 mm Macro USM used fro MEO and HEO objects; and the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180 mm for HEO and GEO objects.

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The advantage of the lens is that it goes deeper in magnitude of the objects it captures. A disadvantage is that it has a smaller FOV (6.8 x 5.0 degrees) which, with the software I use for astrometry (AstroRecord), means I have to carefully select the part of the sky to aim for (it should have enough stars brighter than +8 and at last 3 stars with a Flamsteed number, as the AstroRecord sequence starts with identifying 3 of those after which it starts to auto-identify stars). Especially the requirement of the 3 Flamsteed numbers in such a small FOV is limiting.
Anoher drwaback of this lens is that with 1.5 kg it is heavy! It is at the edge of what my lightweight camera tripod can carry, and hence vulnerable to vibrations.

On October 9 and 10 I used the lens to capture two Molniya-orbit (HEO) objects: USA 184 (06-027A), and USA 198 (07-060A, SDS 3F5). As a stray, it also captured another Molniya, the Russian US-KS Oko IR missile detection platform Kosmos 2393 (02-059A), and an old Russian rocket body in LEO (Kosmos 411 r, 71-041J). The image sequence shows that Kosmos 2393 was flaring at that time (20:14:02 - 20:14:12 UTC, 9 Oct 2010)

Below are two parts (at full pixel resolution) of one image that contained both USA 184 and Kosmos 2393 (the latter close to the edge of the image); and one of the images of USA 198.

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BWGS meeting, 26 September 2010, and 2010 observations so far

I. The BWGS meeting

On September 26, 8 members of the BWGS (the Belgian Satellite Workgroup, which also includes the active Dutch observers) including this author gathered in Brugge at the home of Tristan Cools for the annual BWGS meeting. As usual the meeting was quite informal, with a few small talks and a lot of banter.

from left to right: Tristan Cools (B), Kurt Dequick (B), Kurt Jonckheere (B), Koen Geukens (B), Bram Dorreman (B/NL), Wim Holwerda (NL), Leo Barhorst (NL). Not in the picture, the author (NL).

BWGS chair Bram Dorreman giving a presentation on the new PNAS database

Bram Dorreman did a presentation on the newly established PNAS (Photometric Notes on Artificial Satellites) that will complement the PPAS database of flash records. The PNAS will record 'anecdotal' observations of single flares and usunusual brightness behaviour of satellites. As an example, Bram showed how he cooperates with meteor observer Jean-Marie Biets to identify satellite flares captured by Biets' all-sky meteor fireball camera, and includes these data in the new PNAS.

The author did a presentation on the techniques he uses for photographic position determination (and occasionally brightness behaviour determinations) on classified satellites and other objects of interest. As part of it, he also presented some statistics of the past 9 months of observations (see more below), as an illustration of the results gathered.

Kurt Jonckheere next showed photographs and video of his trip to Florida in April, where he and his family watched the night launch of Space Shuttle STS-131. He shot some marvelous imagery of the afterglow of the exhaust plume. Following this, Tristan showed some footage of a Soyuz launch (carrying Belgian astronaut Frank de Winne) from Baikonur some years ago.

Koen Geukens presented a number of video segments of his trip to Peënemunde, the WWII center of German early rocket development (including the V-1 and V-2). The place where once Wernher von Braun's desk stood, is now a wilderness of trees and rubble.

Kurt Dequick followed with some images of French V-2 and V-1 launch sites.


II. Some statistics of the past 9 months

As mentioned, I presented something on my positional observations. As part of it, for illustration purposes, I ran some quick statistical overviews of my observations this year so far.

from January to the 3rd week of September 2010, I produced 872 position determinations, 774 of these on classified objects (and the rest on accidental non-classified strays captured in my imagery, or special interest objects such as Space Shuttles and Progress spacecraft). It concerned positions on 34 different classified objects plus 58 non-classified objects.

Of the classified objects, 28 were payloads, 4 rocket boosters, and two where it is unclear what they are (for example the USA 144 "decoy", 99-028C). It concerns payloads and r/b in LEO (21), MEO (4), HEO (6) and GEO (3).

Below diagram gives a breakdown of the number of observed nights (evenings, usually) and the number of position determinations done per month. My hollidays in August are well visible as a pronounced dip in the statistics.

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Below shows, just for fun, an RA/DEC plot of all positions gathered. My summer observations of geostationary objects are visible below 0 degrees declination: the clustering of positions at various spots elsewhere in the diagram is due to me preferably pointing the camera to areas with easily identifiable grouplets of bright stars.

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Below is a list of the classified objects observed these first 9 months of 2010:

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SJ-6F and SJ-12: Close Encounters of a Chinese kind

On August 19th, two Chinese unmanned spacecraft, Shijian SJ-6F (08-053B) and SJ-12 (10-027A) , met in space for what seems to be a deliberate rendez-vous, perhaps even involving physical contact between the two objects. For a complete review of what happened, and all the speculation rife about the possible background, see Brian Weeden's article in The Space Review. One major concern of some, is that this could be a test of technology to "attach" a satellite to other satellites (or at least bring it very near), as part of ASAT technology.

Whatever the reason may be: the two objects are still cruising close together. Last Saturday evening, when bad weather shortly gave away to clearings, I shot an image of the couple while they were cruising through Corona borealis on a western evening pass (not the best of conditions).

The trails on the image are faint, but you can see well that the two are close (separation between the two satellites was 0.78 degrees on the image). SJ-12 is the leading one, SJ-6F the trailing one (movement in the image was from left to right).

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As the distance of both spacecraft to the observer was 812 km at the time of the observation, a quick calculation on the back of an envelope shows that the 47' separation on the image is equal to about 11 km separation between the two objects. That is still close!

Spectacular Keyhole appearances

The KH-12 Keyholes USA 129 (96-072A) and USA 186 (05-042A) delivered some spectacular views in the early part of September.

USA 129 was making passes over Europe near its perigee, at no more than 300-310 km altitude. That is lower than the ISS! It resulted in a zipping fast speed, especially during zenith transits. It was very bright too, attaining magnitude +0 easily.

Below are two images of two such spectacular passes. One (3 Sept 2010) shows it in twilight low in the eastern sky, grazing the roof of my neighbours, at a distance to the observer of 800 km and an orbital altitude of only 305 km. The other image (5 sept 2010) shows it during a zenith pass, when it was at only 300 km orbital altitude at a distance to the observer of no more than 305 km! As can be seen, the FOV of my EF 2.5/50mm (about 24 x 18 degrees) was no longer adequate at that time! (the image shows the full frame: movement is from bottom to top).

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Below diagram shows the geometry in question for the second image (based on elset 10248.82329557). The photograph was taken 30 seconds after perigee: during perigee itself, it could not be photographed as it coincided in time with emergence from the Earth's shadow.

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A few nights later, USA 186 flared brightly to mag. +0 on September 9th at 21:15:10.7 UTC, yielding this nice picture plus brightness diagram (movement is from left to right):

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Again the USA 144 (Misty-2) Decoy brightness variability, with another specular glint

Since about a year, I am regularly targetting the enigmatic object (related to what was probably the Misty-2 stealth satellite launch) we call the USA 144 Decoy (99-028C) as part of a long term monitoring of the brightness variability of this object. It shows a slow sinusoid brightness variation with a periodicity of tens of seconds. This period of variation slowly evolves over the course of months.

On the night of September 5-6 I captured a series of images again (between 23:11:22.30 - 23:16:32.35 UTC, Sep 5, 2010) allowing the construction of a curve. Below is the diagram: I find it best fits a periodicity of 60 seconds:

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Earlier period determinations were:

20 Jul 2010: 61 seconds (see here)
2-9 Mar 2010: 88 seconds (unpublished)
19 Nov 2009: 62 seconds (see here)
25-27 Aug 2009: 71 seconds (see here)

I should actually revisit the two determinations (Aug 2009, Mar 2010) that are well off from 60 seconds to see whether I didn't make mistakes there.

As can be seen, I again captured a solitary anomalous glint produced in the "valley"part of he curve. Something very similar happened earlier on July 20th. Both glints happened near a brightness minimum. Below is imagery of the latest glint from September 5 (showing one image before the glint, then the glint image, and an image after the glint), and a comparison diagram of the July 20th and September 5th glints:

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These spikes are quite specular in character, and suggest there is a flat mirroring surface attached to the object on (if the slow brightness variation of the object is due to exposure of long versus narrow sides) one of the narrow sides.

Hollidays, Ötzi, a Deluge, and USA 179 (SDS 3-3)

For most of the month August, I have been out of the country, to Northern Italy. With my GF I visited Bozen/Bolzano in the Italian part of Tirol, to see Ötzi the glacier-mummie; then made a 2-week backpack hike through the Dolomite mountains, going from refugio (mountain hut) to refugio; and next visited Verona and Venice. In all, a very fine 3-week hollidays!

Shortly after getting back, I managed some limited observations on August 24: USA 186 and the USA 179 r.

Two days later, on the 26th of August, a deluge hit my country including Cospar 4353. An incredible amount (for our country) of precipitation fell: in places thsi amounted to over 140 mm, over 2 times the monthly amount, in only a few hours time. Especially in the east of the country, this led to floods and associated water troubles.

At Cospar 4353, some 60 mm of rain is the monthly normal for August. On the night 25-26 and morning of the 26th, in just 18 hours time, 78 mm of rain was recorded by the pluviometer of my weather station. Most of it fell in an hour time around 9:00 am.

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The days following this deluge, were mostly bad with clouds and rain. I managed to resume observations on the evening of August 30th, taking advantage of a short but bright clearing. Target was USA 179 (SDS 3-3), a US military communication satellite in a Molniya orbit.

As it turned out, the satellite was quite off in position compared to (at that time) a 25 days old elset. It was 3.4 degrees south of the predicted position:

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image made with Heavensat

I followed the object over the next nights, 31 Aug, 1 Sep and 2 Sep, in order to provide data for an orbital update. On August 31, the object was again snagged during a short but bright clearing, this time in Cepheus and closer to it's apogee. Below is a single image and a stack of the 4 images obtained:

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Compare the single images of 30 and 31 August, and to the stack of the August 31 to the stack of the September 2 images, all shown here at the same scale (full pixel resolution).

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The difference in angular speed at different parts of it's orbit is well visible.

Other objects imaged these nights were the STSS Demo 1 + 2 objects; MSX, IGS 1B, and on Sept 1 the Russian Progress-M 06M cargoship that had just been decoupled from the ISS the previous day.

Continued monitoring of the brightness behaviour of the USA 144 decoy (99-028C)

A year ago I started, on the request of Pierre Neirinck, to photographically monitor the brightness behaviour of the enigmatic USA 144 decoy (99-028C). Some details of this curious object are given in the post here.

On the night of July 19-20 I obtained a series of 8 images in two separate groups (2x 4 images with 10s separation each, the two groups being one minute separated). On two images, both part of the 2nd group, the object is too faint to be seen. Hence, the result was 6 segments of brightness behaviour. This yielded the following brightness diagram:

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The data fit a period of 61 seconds. Over the past year, the period was as follows:

25-27 Aug 2009: 71 seconds (see here)
19 Nov 2009: 62 seconds (see here)
2-9 Mar 2010: 88 seconds (unpublished)
20 Jul 2010: 61 seconds (this post)

Clearly, there are regular changes in periodicity, without a clear direction.

One peculiar observation in the current series, is that of an anomalous bright spike in one of the "valleys" of the brightness profile. The satellite is all but almost invisible in most of the image, except for a brief spike right at the end of the exposure (EF 100/2.5 Macro USM, 1600 ISO):

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I have never observed this before. It looks quite specular, i.e. due to a glint on a flat reflective surface.

As a comparison, here is the object during it's brightest appearance:

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I'll keep periodically revisiting the USA 144 decoy periodicity.

Manoeuvring KeyHoles and the flashing Iridium 33 wreckage

July 2010 so far yielded a nice series of clear evenings, due to very warm, sunny weather (in most cases allowing observations in shorts and shirt). I observed on July 3, 4, 6, 12, 15, 16, 17 18, 19 and 22.

Two manoeuvring KeyHoles

Prime targets this month were the KH-12 KeyHoles USA 186 (05-042A) and USA 161 (01-044A). These both manoeuvred on the 14th of July, giving us observers a nice task of recovery and renewed tracking.

The manoeuvre of USA 186 (05-042A) was first noted by Pierre Neirinck in France. After some other observers missed it, he observed it being very late, but initially lost his reference points. Ted Molczan next created a number of search orbits, based on different presumed manoeuvre times. Next Alberto Rango and me again recovered the satellite (Alberto first while I still had daytime, then me on the next orbit, in deep twilight), in an orbit very close to one of Ted's search orbits.

Using pre-manoeuvre and post-manoevre orbits calculated by Ted Molczan from our observations, the manoeuvre occurred on July 14th at the ascending equator crossing at about 15:00 UTC, over Indonesia.

Next it turned out that another KH-12 Keyhole, USA 161 (01-044A) had also manoeuvred early on the 14th. Again, Pierre noted it first, observing it 12 minutes late on July 17th. Next Ted and a number of other observers joined the recovery (including me at some point). Using pre- and post-manoeuvre orbits calculated by Ted and Mike from our observations, the manoeuvre ocurred at the ascending equator crossing near 00:20 UTC, July 14th, near Hawaii.


The flashing behaviour of the Iridium 33 wreckage

On 10 February 2009, the American Iridium 33 (97-051C) telephone communication satellite and a defunct Russian satellite, Kosmos 2251, collided in space. A large number of debris pieces were spread over Low Earth Orbit (see here), and the main wreckages of the two objects kept orbiting, now wildly out of control.

The Iridium 33 wreckage (97-051C) made some fine passes last month, displaying the same kind of flashing behaviour due to tumbling that I also observed shortly after the collision in 2009 (see here, here and here). Some of these flashes are easy naked eye flashes, reaching mag. +0. The object interchanges bright flashes like these with (more numerous) fainter flashes in the +4 range.

I targetted the satellite wreckage several times this month to determine the flashing behaviour. In March 2009, it showed a period of 4.7 seconds. Analayses of the imagery of the past few nights, shows this has changed to about 3.1 seconds. Below is one of several images, taken on July 16th, showing a series of fainter and brighter flares:

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Below are graphic representations of the flare positions (yellow dots) observed on consecutive nights (resp 16-17, 17-18, 18-19 and 22-23 July 2010). Please note: only flares happening during photographic exposures are shown here. There were more flares, but these happened while the camera wasn't open:

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(maps made using Heavensat)

An unusual flare was captured on July 17-18, consisting of a triple flare with flares within 0.5 seconds:

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Other objects besides the KH-12 Keyholes USA 161 and USA 186, and the Iridium 33 wreckage observed last 3 weeks include:

- the geostationary objects Milstar 5, Mentor 2 and Mentor 4 (USA 202);
- the HEO objects USA 184, the USA 40 rk;
- the LEO objects Progress-M 04M, MSX, Lacrosse 5, the Lacrosse 5r, IGS 1B, the IGS 5r, USA 32, the NOSS 3-3 duo and the USA 144 decoy,;
- plus a large number of GEO and LEO strays.

I have yet to analyse the USA 144 decoy (99-028C) data from July 20 for a new tumble period determination.

Ozzie space junk dreams

Northern Hemisphere summertime is the usual period that the news is lazy, and strange mistaken news items pop up like another sighting of the Loch Ness Monster, Bigfoot, chickens that came before the egg (or not), and now an Ozzie corporation that thinks it can solve the space junk threath by selling tracking data from to-be-build tracking lasers.

This company must live in the Dream Time. It is not tracking itself that is the problem. USSTRATCOM basically tracks everything 10 cm+ in LEO plus a lot smaller stuff. The real problems, are problems that additional laser tracking data is not going to solve:

a) the lack of computer power to determine which detections concern the same object;

b) most importantly: the lack of computer power to timely calculate risk situations for thousands of objects in dynamic orbits.

The brightness behaviour of USA 32 on 26 June

On 26 June I captured the 22-year-old ELINT USA 32 (88-078A). It displayed a regular brightness variation while passing through the zenith:

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Below is the resulting brightness profile, and a diagram showing the delta T (in seconds) between brightness peaks. The period between the major peaks is regular and near 1.20 seconds. This is similar to what I determined for this satellite in January 2009 (see my post here). There is a hint of 2 lesser peaks present between each main peak.

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Progress-M 04M, MSX, and Mentor 2

A long spell of very warm, sunny weather is resulting in several clear nights. Since my last observations reported here (those of June 2nd), I have been able to observe on June 3, 13, 14, 16, 17, 22, 24, 26 and 29. Objects include Progress-M 04M, Mentor 2, Mentor 4 (USA 202), USA 161, USA 32, USA 184, MSX, Milstar 5, the NOSS 3-1 duo, and the STSS Demo-1. This does not include a number of non-classified strays also captured.

USA 161 (01-044A) slowly flared to -1 at 23:58:59 UTC (24 Jun).

Below are a few pictures. First: UARS captured as a stray, flaring, on June 16th:

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Progress-M 04M on 26 and 29 June:

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Geostationary USA 202 (Mentor 4), in the trees low in the sky (altitude about 17.5 degrees):

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Mentor 2 (geostationary), MSX and a stray (HJ-1A, a Chinese Earth Observation Satellite)

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The flash period of USA 81 on June 2nd (UPDATED with February 24 results)

In my previous post I reported on a bright stroboscopic flash display by the SIGINT satellite USA 81 (92-023A) on June 2. I now had some time to analyse the images. Below are diagrams showing the brightness behaviour in the two images that captured the event.

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In the first image, the median period between succesive peaks is a very neat 0.20 seconds (average: 0.18s; modus: 0.19s). The same period also is present in the series from the second image, but with more "noise" in terms of either extra "peaks" or missing peaks. Below images shows it as diagrams of the delta time between peaks, and the deviation of these to the 0.20s period established by the first image:

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The results compare with similar results I obtained in February this year, which for some reason I never published on this blog. These are diagrams from my February 24, 2010 observations (two images), when it showed a series of sharp glints in the zenith, similar to those of June 2nd, with a period of ~0.41s (multiple of the 0.20s of June 2nd). Lower in the sky, it changed to a slower cycle of less sharp peaks with a period of 1.26s.

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The brightness behaviour hence is quite similar to that for it's older sister ship USA 32 (see here).