Hollidays, Ötzi, a Deluge, and USA 179 (SDS 3-3)

For most of the month August, I have been out of the country, to Northern Italy. With my GF I visited Bozen/Bolzano in the Italian part of Tirol, to see Ötzi the glacier-mummie; then made a 2-week backpack hike through the Dolomite mountains, going from refugio (mountain hut) to refugio; and next visited Verona and Venice. In all, a very fine 3-week hollidays!

Shortly after getting back, I managed some limited observations on August 24: USA 186 and the USA 179 r.

Two days later, on the 26th of August, a deluge hit my country including Cospar 4353. An incredible amount (for our country) of precipitation fell: in places thsi amounted to over 140 mm, over 2 times the monthly amount, in only a few hours time. Especially in the east of the country, this led to floods and associated water troubles.

At Cospar 4353, some 60 mm of rain is the monthly normal for August. On the night 25-26 and morning of the 26th, in just 18 hours time, 78 mm of rain was recorded by the pluviometer of my weather station. Most of it fell in an hour time around 9:00 am.

click diagram to enlarge

The days following this deluge, were mostly bad with clouds and rain. I managed to resume observations on the evening of August 30th, taking advantage of a short but bright clearing. Target was USA 179 (SDS 3-3), a US military communication satellite in a Molniya orbit.

As it turned out, the satellite was quite off in position compared to (at that time) a 25 days old elset. It was 3.4 degrees south of the predicted position:

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image made with Heavensat

I followed the object over the next nights, 31 Aug, 1 Sep and 2 Sep, in order to provide data for an orbital update. On August 31, the object was again snagged during a short but bright clearing, this time in Cepheus and closer to it's apogee. Below is a single image and a stack of the 4 images obtained:

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Compare the single images of 30 and 31 August, and to the stack of the August 31 to the stack of the September 2 images, all shown here at the same scale (full pixel resolution).

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The difference in angular speed at different parts of it's orbit is well visible.

Other objects imaged these nights were the STSS Demo 1 + 2 objects; MSX, IGS 1B, and on Sept 1 the Russian Progress-M 06M cargoship that had just been decoupled from the ISS the previous day.

Continued monitoring of the brightness behaviour of the USA 144 decoy (99-028C)

A year ago I started, on the request of Pierre Neirinck, to photographically monitor the brightness behaviour of the enigmatic USA 144 decoy (99-028C). Some details of this curious object are given in the post here.

On the night of July 19-20 I obtained a series of 8 images in two separate groups (2x 4 images with 10s separation each, the two groups being one minute separated). On two images, both part of the 2nd group, the object is too faint to be seen. Hence, the result was 6 segments of brightness behaviour. This yielded the following brightness diagram:

click diagram to enlarge

The data fit a period of 61 seconds. Over the past year, the period was as follows:

25-27 Aug 2009: 71 seconds (see here)
19 Nov 2009: 62 seconds (see here)
2-9 Mar 2010: 88 seconds (unpublished)
20 Jul 2010: 61 seconds (this post)

Clearly, there are regular changes in periodicity, without a clear direction.

One peculiar observation in the current series, is that of an anomalous bright spike in one of the "valleys" of the brightness profile. The satellite is all but almost invisible in most of the image, except for a brief spike right at the end of the exposure (EF 100/2.5 Macro USM, 1600 ISO):

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I have never observed this before. It looks quite specular, i.e. due to a glint on a flat reflective surface.

As a comparison, here is the object during it's brightest appearance:

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I'll keep periodically revisiting the USA 144 decoy periodicity.

Manoeuvring KeyHoles and the flashing Iridium 33 wreckage

July 2010 so far yielded a nice series of clear evenings, due to very warm, sunny weather (in most cases allowing observations in shorts and shirt). I observed on July 3, 4, 6, 12, 15, 16, 17 18, 19 and 22.

Two manoeuvring KeyHoles

Prime targets this month were the KH-12 KeyHoles USA 186 (05-042A) and USA 161 (01-044A). These both manoeuvred on the 14th of July, giving us observers a nice task of recovery and renewed tracking.

The manoeuvre of USA 186 (05-042A) was first noted by Pierre Neirinck in France. After some other observers missed it, he observed it being very late, but initially lost his reference points. Ted Molczan next created a number of search orbits, based on different presumed manoeuvre times. Next Alberto Rango and me again recovered the satellite (Alberto first while I still had daytime, then me on the next orbit, in deep twilight), in an orbit very close to one of Ted's search orbits.

Using pre-manoeuvre and post-manoevre orbits calculated by Ted Molczan from our observations, the manoeuvre occurred on July 14th at the ascending equator crossing at about 15:00 UTC, over Indonesia.

Next it turned out that another KH-12 Keyhole, USA 161 (01-044A) had also manoeuvred early on the 14th. Again, Pierre noted it first, observing it 12 minutes late on July 17th. Next Ted and a number of other observers joined the recovery (including me at some point). Using pre- and post-manoeuvre orbits calculated by Ted and Mike from our observations, the manoeuvre ocurred at the ascending equator crossing near 00:20 UTC, July 14th, near Hawaii.


The flashing behaviour of the Iridium 33 wreckage

On 10 February 2009, the American Iridium 33 (97-051C) telephone communication satellite and a defunct Russian satellite, Kosmos 2251, collided in space. A large number of debris pieces were spread over Low Earth Orbit (see here), and the main wreckages of the two objects kept orbiting, now wildly out of control.

The Iridium 33 wreckage (97-051C) made some fine passes last month, displaying the same kind of flashing behaviour due to tumbling that I also observed shortly after the collision in 2009 (see here, here and here). Some of these flashes are easy naked eye flashes, reaching mag. +0. The object interchanges bright flashes like these with (more numerous) fainter flashes in the +4 range.

I targetted the satellite wreckage several times this month to determine the flashing behaviour. In March 2009, it showed a period of 4.7 seconds. Analayses of the imagery of the past few nights, shows this has changed to about 3.1 seconds. Below is one of several images, taken on July 16th, showing a series of fainter and brighter flares:

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Below are graphic representations of the flare positions (yellow dots) observed on consecutive nights (resp 16-17, 17-18, 18-19 and 22-23 July 2010). Please note: only flares happening during photographic exposures are shown here. There were more flares, but these happened while the camera wasn't open:

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(maps made using Heavensat)

An unusual flare was captured on July 17-18, consisting of a triple flare with flares within 0.5 seconds:

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Other objects besides the KH-12 Keyholes USA 161 and USA 186, and the Iridium 33 wreckage observed last 3 weeks include:

- the geostationary objects Milstar 5, Mentor 2 and Mentor 4 (USA 202);
- the HEO objects USA 184, the USA 40 rk;
- the LEO objects Progress-M 04M, MSX, Lacrosse 5, the Lacrosse 5r, IGS 1B, the IGS 5r, USA 32, the NOSS 3-3 duo and the USA 144 decoy,;
- plus a large number of GEO and LEO strays.

I have yet to analyse the USA 144 decoy (99-028C) data from July 20 for a new tumble period determination.

Ozzie space junk dreams

Northern Hemisphere summertime is the usual period that the news is lazy, and strange mistaken news items pop up like another sighting of the Loch Ness Monster, Bigfoot, chickens that came before the egg (or not), and now an Ozzie corporation that thinks it can solve the space junk threath by selling tracking data from to-be-build tracking lasers.

This company must live in the Dream Time. It is not tracking itself that is the problem. USSTRATCOM basically tracks everything 10 cm+ in LEO plus a lot smaller stuff. The real problems, are problems that additional laser tracking data is not going to solve:

a) the lack of computer power to determine which detections concern the same object;

b) most importantly: the lack of computer power to timely calculate risk situations for thousands of objects in dynamic orbits.

The brightness behaviour of USA 32 on 26 June

On 26 June I captured the 22-year-old ELINT USA 32 (88-078A). It displayed a regular brightness variation while passing through the zenith:

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Below is the resulting brightness profile, and a diagram showing the delta T (in seconds) between brightness peaks. The period between the major peaks is regular and near 1.20 seconds. This is similar to what I determined for this satellite in January 2009 (see my post here). There is a hint of 2 lesser peaks present between each main peak.

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Progress-M 04M, MSX, and Mentor 2

A long spell of very warm, sunny weather is resulting in several clear nights. Since my last observations reported here (those of June 2nd), I have been able to observe on June 3, 13, 14, 16, 17, 22, 24, 26 and 29. Objects include Progress-M 04M, Mentor 2, Mentor 4 (USA 202), USA 161, USA 32, USA 184, MSX, Milstar 5, the NOSS 3-1 duo, and the STSS Demo-1. This does not include a number of non-classified strays also captured.

USA 161 (01-044A) slowly flared to -1 at 23:58:59 UTC (24 Jun).

Below are a few pictures. First: UARS captured as a stray, flaring, on June 16th:

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Progress-M 04M on 26 and 29 June:

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Geostationary USA 202 (Mentor 4), in the trees low in the sky (altitude about 17.5 degrees):

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Mentor 2 (geostationary), MSX and a stray (HJ-1A, a Chinese Earth Observation Satellite)

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The flash period of USA 81 on June 2nd (UPDATED with February 24 results)

In my previous post I reported on a bright stroboscopic flash display by the SIGINT satellite USA 81 (92-023A) on June 2. I now had some time to analyse the images. Below are diagrams showing the brightness behaviour in the two images that captured the event.

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In the first image, the median period between succesive peaks is a very neat 0.20 seconds (average: 0.18s; modus: 0.19s). The same period also is present in the series from the second image, but with more "noise" in terms of either extra "peaks" or missing peaks. Below images shows it as diagrams of the delta time between peaks, and the deviation of these to the 0.20s period established by the first image:

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The results compare with similar results I obtained in February this year, which for some reason I never published on this blog. These are diagrams from my February 24, 2010 observations (two images), when it showed a series of sharp glints in the zenith, similar to those of June 2nd, with a period of ~0.41s (multiple of the 0.20s of June 2nd). Lower in the sky, it changed to a slower cycle of less sharp peaks with a period of 1.26s.

click diagrams to enlarge

The brightness behaviour hence is quite similar to that for it's older sister ship USA 32 (see here).

USA 202 and other geostationaries, and a stroboscopic show by USA 81

I am awfully behind with reporting on my observations.

In deep twilight on June 2nd, I observed USA 81 (92-023A) briefly attaining easy naked eye magnitudes in Bootes, and firing off a rapid series of flashes. The trails on both images covering this episode of bright stroboscopic behaviour partly run off the image, as I re-aimed in (too much of) a hurry. I still have to analyse the flash period. But it was impressive to see:

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Apart from two Lacrosses, I also targetted the geostationary satellite Milstar 5 (02-001A) again. below image shows it together with the commercial geosats Galaxy 11 and Intelsat 802:

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I also imaged another classified geostationary satellite, USA 202 (09-001A), and ELINT satellite (probably a Mentor/Advanced Orion). I had not realised it was so bright, so initially I thought the faint object on below image was USA 202 and the brighter one the commercial geosat Thuraya 2. However, the brighter object is USA 202, as it turns out (hence, the questionmarks still in below image can be removed). The satellite is at an altitude of only 17.5 degrees in the south-southeast for mu location.

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USA 198 brightness behaviour: a belated 2nd report

A belated report on a second instance of USA 198 (07-060A) flaring.

On May 13th I captured another one of such instances, after first capturing it on May 5th (see report here, 2nd part of that post).

On May 5th I captured it decreasing in brightness froma prominent brightness peak. This time, I captured it increasing in brightness towards a prominent peak near 21:44 UTC, with a hint of the start of a decrease later. Here is a selection of images, all spaced 1 minute apart:

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The first 11 images in the series yield the curve below (I did not include the rest of the images, as they are all saturated)

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Both this May 13 and the earlier May 5th flaring occurred close to the moment that the sun, observer and satellite lined up, indicating it is probably due to reflection on the solar panels.

An IGS 1B flare, and Geostationary satellites again

Last evening 25-26 May was not the best of evenings: cirrus, and moonlight, plus this time of the year the sky darkens late and in fact remains in twilight all night at 52 N.

In twilight, I observed the KH-12 KeyHole USA 186 (05-042A), IGS 1B (03-009B), and Lacrosse 4 (00-047A). Short after midnight, the still flaring commercial geostationary satellite Galaxy 11 (99-071A) and the classified military geostationary satellite Milstar 5 (02-001A) were the target.

IGS 1B slowly flared to mag. -0.5 at about 21:15:48.5 UTC (May 25), while the camera was open. below photograph shows the brightnes speak, when it was cruising close to the Coma cluster:

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IGS 1B is a defunct Japanese Radar Reconnaissance satellite. Since it went out of control, it is producing flares occasionally (sometimes up to mag. -3 to -5 peak brightness).

Galaxy 11 was flaring again, but is getting fainter at its peak. If my modelling is right, it might flare again in a new cycle around the 3rd week of July. Below link provides an animated GIF of last night covering 20 minutes with the geosat flaring up. Milstar 5 is in it as well, moving southward.

Link: animated GIF ( 5.5 Mb)

Around 22:10 UTC, Intelsat 802 (97-031A) briefly flares up close to Galaxy 11. It stays faint, but is visible. The single image below might help discern it:

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Geostationary Galaxy 11 flaring to mag +2.5

In my post of yesterday, I reported a bright geostationary satellite flaring to naked eye brightness, observed by several Dutch and Belgian observers.

Below are my images of last night (taken with the EF 50/2.5 Macro). It shows two "stars" "too many" in Ophiuchus: a brighter one (A, vertical arrow) and a fainter one (B, flat arrow). The second image is a more detailed crop of the first, at full pixel level resolution.

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The glare next to the tree in the wide field image, is due to a street lantern.

The satellite flaring to mag. +2.5 turns out to be Galaxy 11 (99-071A). It peaked near 22:18 UTC (23 May) and was visible with the naked eye at that moment, nothwithstanding it was low in the sky and I was observing from the city center.

The other object is Milstar 5 (02-001A) again. A faint trail of a non-geostationary satellite is visible as well: this turned out to be Globalstar 55 (99-049C).

Link: 2.2 MB animated GIF

Above link opens a 2.2 Mb animated gif with images from 22:10 to 22:19 UTC, which shows Galaxy 11 increasing in brightness. Milstar 5 is slowly drifting south.

A third geosat was captured on the images (not shown here), which is either Thuraya 2 (03-026A) or USA 202 (09-001A); probably the first.

Two naked eye flaring Geosynchronous sats

Dutch meteor observer Peter van Leuteren contacted me this week as he had a strange bright stationary object on images of his photographic all-sky meteor fireball camera, appearing in Ophiuchus at around 22:18 UTC on 3 consecutive nights. The same object was also noted visually, at mag. about +2.5, by BWGS chairman Bram Dorreman. It was evidently a brightly flaring geosynchonous satellite.

After an alert on Dutch and Belgian astronomy mailing lists, several observers noted it as well.

I took images last night (22 May, 22:13 - 22:25 UTC) in hopes of catching it and identifying it from the position. I used the Canon 450D with the EF 50/2.5 Macro for that purpose.

Unfortunately, as it later turned out, "the" mystery geosat (for now) was hidden just behind some tree branches for me. A few degrees west of it, I however captured a second flaring geosat!

That one has now been identified by Bram and me, based on my photographic positions, as Milstar 5 (2001-001A, #27168). I have made a movie out of 13 images (10 second exposures) spaced one minute each. It can be seen here (1.4 Mb animated GIF)

The FOV of the movie is a small crop from the images, at full pixel level. The object is moving southwards at about 55"/minute.

Volcanic dust effects at last! Bishop's Ring on May 18th

On May 17, a cloud of ash erupted from Iceland's now infamous Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached the North Sea area. It led to another temporary suspension of flights over the (western) Netherlands. And this time, there finally were clear visible effects in the sky as well!

The evening of May 17th stood out by being very hazy. Sunset colors were an unusual ochre (see photographs by Dutch KNMI meteorologist Jacob Kuiper here). But more excitedly, both Jacob and I managed to observe (and in my case, photograph) the rare Bishop's Ring.

Below image was taken by me on the late afternoon of May 18th, when remnants of the ash cloud passage still lingered in the atmosphere.

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Visible is a diffuse disc of light around the sun (the sun itself is just behind the roof tip). The outer edges are reddish, the inner part is more bluish, as can be seen from this version where I depicted the RGB color values for two parts of the ring in the color spectrum:

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With "normal" halo's, due to ice particles where refraction is the dispersal mechanism, the blue is on the outside and the red on the inside. Here however, it is the other way around, which confirms it is due to diffraction by dust.

An unidentified object

While reducing the remainder of my May 9-10 observations, I found what appears to be a UNID (unidentified object) on one of the images, close to eta Uma:

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It does not identify with any known catalogued object, or classified object known to us. The appearance is HEO-like (very short trail), it is present on only one (out of a series of five) images taken with the EF 100/2.5 Macro USM, and the trail looks to be part of a flare.

Most likely, it is a tumbling rocket stage of some past HEO launch.

-5 KeyHole flare! (May 9th observations, Part I)

Yesterday evening (9 May) I observed the most spectacular Keyhole flare I have ever seen. KH-12 USA 186 (05-042A) flared brilliantly to at least mag. -5 in a blue twilight sky, while crossing from Cvn into Uma. It yielded this Iridium-like picture:

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I cannot provide a brightness profile: for the simple reason that the trail is saturated over the full length. Peak time was about 20:34:29.4 UTC (9 May 2010).

I also observed on the 5th and 6th of May, capturing a.o. USA 186 again, as well as the IGS 5 r/b and the Molniya object USA 198.

USA 198 (07-060A) showed a clear, slow brightness variation over the 1m20s image series of 5 images, taken on May 5th, growing slowly fainter over the series:

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The data during the first 12 seconds of the diagram above, are close to saturation. Hence, the brightness variation in reality is probably more expontential than the diagram suggests.
The background readings have been taken just to the right of the trails, and are plotted to show that the change in brightness of USA 198 is not due to lens vignetting, but real.

Yet another nice USA 186 KeyHole flare

I am running behind with reporting on my observations again. After my last report, I observed again on the 22nd and 26th of April. Targets were the usual suspects: the KH-12 KeyHoles USA 129 and USA 186, and two of the IGS objects (IGS 1B, and the IGS 5 r/b).

USA 186 is giving nice flare shows again. On the 22nd, I captured one of these flares (peaking at 21:11:36.7 UTC) on photograph. The same image also has the Kosmos 1515 r/b on it as a stray. See the image below, and the brightness profile of the flare below it:

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Another Keyhole flare

Although the skies were somewhat hazy, observations were conducted on the evenings of April 15th and 16th. Targets were the various IGS objects (1B, 5A, 5r/b), the Lacrosse 5 r/b, and the KH-12 Keyholes USA 129 and USA 186.

USA 186 was so friendly as to flare in my camera image on the 16th. The flare occurred at 20:43:40.75 UTC (Apr 16). Below is the image, and the resulting profile (with saturation at the peak). The two bright stars are the front stars of the pan of the Big Dipper, alpha and beta Uma.

click images to enlarge