OT: The beautiful Aurora of May 10, 2024

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 (more imagery below the text)

On May 10, 2024, the strongest Solar storm in 20 years hit Earth. As a result, Aurora borealis (Northen Lights) was visible at much lower latitides than normally, including the Netherlands, where it put on a splendid, bright, colorful display between midnight and 1 am of the night of May 10-11.

Looking at the geomagnetic data just before nightfall on the 10th, I knew we had good chances of an impressive display. It had been a sunny day, the sky was clear, albeit with some cirrus. 

I bicycled 30 minutes to get to the Vlietlanden, a recreational area between Leiden and Leidschendam, to a spot on the shore of a lake where I often row, at approximately 52.107 N, 4.453 W.situated a few km out of town, it is darker there than in Leiden center and with a good view to low on the western, northern and eastern horizon. I arrived in deep twilight, set up the camera, and waited. Around 22:50 local time (20:50 UTC, May 10), still deep in twilight, some red streamers appeared near the moon in the west. I shot a few pictures with the 17 mm, then changed the lens to a Samyang f3.5/8 mm semi-fisheye as I had good previous experiences with that lens when photographich Aurora in Finland in 2013.

For about an hour, it remained quiet after that short period of activity. I decided to wait, knowing how activity can wax and wane repeatedly over a night. 

Around local midnight, a diffuse green band started to appear low in the north. Initially I was not sure whether it was aurora or light pollution: but when some drapery-like structure appeared in it and an aircraft contrail created a dark silhouet against it, I knew it was aurora. 

Soon, the glow became brighter, and photographically, purple streamers started to appear above it .And then, at about 00:10 local time, the sky exploded. Bright pillars or light appeared, changing shape and location, with blue, purple and red colors. They started to appear everywhere, west, north and east, reaching to the zenith and soon beyond. 

I started to cheer in excitement when the Corona took shape, just south of the zenith. I had seen it in Finland in 2013, and once in the Netherlands, in 1989. 

This aurora appearance was better than what I had seen in 1989 and 1990 (two years with exceptionally bright aurora in the Netherlands), and almost on par with what I had seen in Finland in 2013. For an hour, I was frantically taking pictures, as the sky seemd to change each 10 seconds. Then, at about 1 am local time, activity subsided, to a diffuse glow in the north. I stayed untill slightly after 1:30 am, then quit and went home.

Above and below, is a selection of images out of hundreds I took. They were made with a Canon EOS 80D and Samyang f3.5/8 mm lens, at ISO 800-1000 and exposured between 2 and 5 seconds. Photographically, the colors are more vibrant than what you see visually, but visually I also noted greenish, red and blue-purple colors.

(click the images below to enlarge them)

 

(this one taken with a 17 mm lens)

(looking straight up to the zenith)

Imaging North Korea's new satellite Malligyong-1

stack of 100 frames

 

Last week I finally got my first views of Malligyong-1 (2023-179A), the new reconnaissance satellite which North Korea launched on 21 November 2023 (see this earlier blogpost on the launch, and these and these  Space Review articles  regarding the satellites manoeuvering). As it makes passes in the late evening, it so far had remained hidden in the Earth Shadow, but now summer is approaching it is rappidly becoming visible.

My first detection was on 22 April, when it stayed faint due to unfavourable phase angles, and my second detection was yesterday 28 April, when it was brighter (between mag +7.5 and +6 before disappearing in the Earth shadow), during a 30 degree elevation pass in the east at a range of ~900 km. My impression is that it is a bit fainter than the KMS satellites were (part of this is due to the orbital altitude).

Here is video from April 22, shot with the WATEC 902H2 Supreme and a Samyang 1.2/85 mm lens at 25 fps:

 

Brightness curve:

click diagram to enlarge

The object was steady over the half minute that I could track it (the drop at the end of the curve is because it was entering earth shadow)

Dark moves at Geosynchronous altitude: Mentor 6 and Luch (Olymp) 2 have repositioned

Mentor 6 on April 16, 2024. Click image to enlarge

A number of SIGINT satellites in geosynchronous orbit have been moving lately. A small roundup:

There is the brand new SIGINT satellite Mentor 10 (USA 353, 2024-067A) that is slowly drifting westwards to its operational position by ~1.35 degrees per day, since its launch and initial insertion at longitude 100 E on April 9. This was discussed in this previous blogpost. 

But an earlier Mentor (also known as ADVANCED ORION), Mentor 6 (2012-034A), has also been moving recently, from longitude 55.6 E to 51.1 E. This move happened somewhere between the second week of January and the second week of April. The image above shows it on April 16.

The Russians too have recently moved one of their SIGINT satellites again, LUCH (Olymp) 2 (2023-031A). It has now been placed near longitude 4.75 E, close to the commercial satellite ASTRA 4A. The daily distance of LUCH (Olymp) 2 to ASTRA 4A varies between 20 and 70 km. The move was initiated on March 26 and completed by April 2, 2024. The image below shows it on April 16:

 

Luch (Olymp) 2 near Astra 4A. Click image to enlarge

 

click diagram to enlarge

click diagram to enlarge

This is the fifth relocation of Luch (Olymp) 2 since launch in May 2023 (see diagram above). Each time it is relocated, it is put close to a commercial telecom satellite (see also the second part of this earlier post). The purpose is eavesdropping on c.q. mapping of  communications and data streams, and potentially also interference.

PAN/NEMESIS-1 (2009-047A), the enigmatic US SIGINT satellite that played the same game since 2009 (see my 2016 article in The Space Review), is still slowly drifting westwards at an average (but somewhat variable) rate of ~0.03 degrees in longitude per day:

Click diagram to enlarge

Mentor 10 (USA 353), the NROL-70 payload, likely found near 98 E [UPDATED]

click image to enlarge. Image (c) by @mickeywzx, used with permission

It appears that Mentor 10 (USA 353), the payload of NROL-70, which launched on 9 April 2024 at 16:53 UTC, has been found on orbit by Twitter user @mickeyWZX (Zhuo-Xiao Wang) who is located at Baihuashan Observatory (MPC code P13) in the suburbs of Beijing. 

It is a bright object, reportedly about mag. +7.6, which conforms to the expectation of an ADVANCED ORION, a SIGINT satellite class known as 'Mentor' among independent trackers. These objects are the largest and brightest geosynchronous satellites in the sky with a typical observed brightness near mag +8 (see my 2016 article in The Space Review that discusses one of them as part of a larger story).

When found on April 11, two days after launch, it was located near longitude 97 E.

 A preliminary TLE which the observer posted on Twitter suggests it is drifting westwards in longitude at 0.6 deg/day, indicating it was originally inserted at 98.0 E. 

[update] a TLE over an arc of several days suggests it is drifting westwards in longitude at ~1.3 degrees/day, indicating it was originally inserted at 100.3 E. [/update]

That is basically in agreement with my pre-launch estimate (100 E), but the orbital inclination of 8 degrees is a bit higher than my estimated 5 degrees. Still, the resemblance to my pre-launch estimate is good.

 

click to enlarge

 

In the map below, my pre-launch estimated insertion orbit is depicted (blue) along with the orbital track of the payload after insertion (yellow), from April 9 22:45 UTC to April 19 12:00 UTC (note the daily analemma caused by the 8 degree orbital inclination). The yellow crosses give positions for various future dates if the current drift of 12.3 deg/day westwards continues:

Click map to enlarge

At this moment, the payload is probably controlled from Pine Gap Joint Defense Facility in Australia. If it continues to drift westwards, RAF Menwith Hill in the UK might at some point take over. 

At the current drift rate, if it continues this way, it should become visible at sufficient sky elevation from my location by late May 2024. 

It will be interesting to see where the drift stops. My guess, based on current hightened interest in what is going on in Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea area, is somewhere near 30 E. But who knows: it might go as far as 15 W, based on historic positions for this line of satellites.

A preliminary TLE based on observations by @mickeywzx [updated]:

Mentor 10
1 59453U 24067A   24109.01742676 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    06
2 59453   7.9821 302.0687 0008030 158.5115 201.5250  0.99896432    03

 

(I thank @mickeywzx for allowing the use of his photography in this post)

Manoeuver moments of the North Korean reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1

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Earlier this year, I blogged about the detection of a series of small orbit raising manoeuvers performed by the new North Korean military optical reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 (2023-179A). I also wrote a small piece on it for The Space Review published on 4 March 2024.

I have now completed a follow-up analysis, which appeard in The Space Review last week (8 April 2024). You can read it here.

In that follow-up analysis, I reconstructed the times and locations of each of the five small manoeuvers. And found that they match evening passes over North Korea. Read more details in the Space Review article here.

Russian ICBM test launch (Topol?) from Kapustin Yar seen from the Middle East

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On 12 April 2024 near 16:00 UTC, the Russian Armed Forces test-fired an unarmed ICBM from Kapustin Yar, targetting the test range at Sary Shagan at a distance of some 2000 km. The missile was likely a TOPOL-M.

In the image above, I have modelled the likely trajectory, assuming apogee at 1000 km altitude as in previous tests. Below is Russian MoD footage of the launch:

 

The missile launch was widely seen as a bright comet-like object in the sky, in Russia as well as in the Middle East, with reports from as far south as a.o. Iran and Iraq. As many there where in anxiety about an expected Iranian retaliation attack on Israel, it created  a bit of a stir.

 

In the aftermath, there were some people that expressed doubt whether a Russian ICBM test would be visible from the Middle East. So I reconstructed the area of visibility to show that it is in fact visible. 

In the map below, I have drawn isocircles around the estimated point of cut-off of the missile's third stage. That stage cut-off happened after 3 minutes of flight at an altitude of about 570 km (there is some leeway in both figures possible, but in general the figure below will give you a good indication of the area of visibility).

click map to enlarge

 

The isocircles give you the altitude in the local sky as seen from a region encompassing southern Russia and the Middle East. 

As can be seen, the area of visibility is large, and horizontally extends about 2600 km from the geographic location of stage engine cut-off, to as far as southern Iran. 

Bar the first few tens of kilometers, the trajectory was fully sun-illuminated, and as a result the exhaust clouds of the missile were also sun-illuminated, making them  shine brightly in the sky.

That exhaust clouds from the upper stages of missile launches can be seen over a avery large area isn't something new. Russian ICBM tests from Plesetsk have multiple times resulted in sightings of bright "spirals" in the Arctic sky (e.g. here). Chinese tests have also been observed, e.g. this example that was observed from South Korea in 2019, which I further analysed here. Meanwhile, the post-boost vehicles of ICBM's/SLBM's sometimes also cause visible phenomena in the sky: see my analysis of one such sighting from La Palma in 2013 related to a US Trident SLBM test for example.

A possible French Missile test over the Gulf of Biscaye on April 10-11 [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

An odd Navigational Warning has appeared, for "space debris" along a 420-km trackline over the Gulf of Biscaye, from a point some 37 km southwest of Concarneau on the southern coast of Bretagne to a point some 20 km west of the French missile test base DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse, southwest France. The Navigational Warning is for April 10 and 11, 2024, from 10:00 to 14:30 UTC (12:00 to 16:30 CEST).

I do not think this Navigational Warning is really about "space debris", but rather believe some sort of missile test is concerned. 

The southern end of the 420 km trackline being close to the French missile testing base at Biscarosse, while the northern end is in the area that the French Navy uses to test-launch SLBM's, is a giveaway that it rather concerns some kind of missile. Also, a controlled reentry of "space debris" so close to the French coast would be very odd. So I do not believe for a second that the Warning truely is for "space debris"

This is the text of the Navigational Warning:

051439Z APR 24
HYDROLANT 716/24(37).
BAY OF BISCAY.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   101000Z TO 101430Z, ALTERNATE 111000Z TO 111430Z
   ALONG TRACKLINE JOINING
   47-36.00N 004-13.00W, 44-20.00N 001-30.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 111530Z APR 24.

Because the trackline starts in the area that the French use for SLBM test launches, and because "space debris" would perhaps indicate something with a high apogee, my initial thought (see also the title of the map above) was that it might concern a test of a new SLBM stage (it is definitely not a full M51 SLBM test, the range is much too short for that and those tests fire westwards).

However, the 420 km length of the indicated track line, would also match two medium-range to long-range cruise-missiles of the French armed forces: the ASMP-A, which is airlaunched and meant to deliver a nuclear warhead; and the French-British SCALP-EG, also known as Storm Shadow, which is also air-launched and has a conventional warhead.

If it concerns a ship- or submarine-launched cruise-missile instead, then the MdCN would also be an option, but that missile would have a 2-3 times as large range (edit: but see below).

Calling a cruise-missile "space debris" is a stretch however. So many open questions remain as to the character of the missile in question.

 

UPDATE 19 Apr 2024:

The test happened on April 18 (the Navigational Warning was re-issued twice, for April 17 and 18). The French Ministry of Defense announced that it concerned a double launch of the Missile de Croisière Naval (MdCN) Naval cruise missile, one launched from the Frigate Aquitaine, the other from a nuclear  submarine in the Suffren class. The target was on land at DGA Essais de Missiles near Biscarosse.

NROL-70, likely an ADVANCED ORION satellite

NROL-70 launch trajectory. Click map to enlarge

 

On 28 March 2024, if weather cooperates (see update at bottom of post), ULA will launch NROL-70 from SLC-37 at Cape Canaveral, carrying a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). 

NROL-70 will be the last launch of ULA's iconic Delta IV Heavy rocket. Navigational Warnings for the launch (plotted on the map above) indicate a launch to Geosynchronous orbit. The launch window opens at 17:40 UTC and runs to 22:51 UTC. Back-up dates are March 29 to April 1. 

The classified payload is likely Mentor 10 (Orion 12), a Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) satellite in the ADVANCED ORION class.

The NRO launch patch for NROL-70 features a Snow Leopard:

 

NRO launch patch for NROL-70

 

ADVANCED ORION/MENTOR satellites are very large. At magnitude +8, they are the brightest geosynchronous satellites in the sky. In a 2010 speech a former Director of the NRO, Bruce Carlson, called one of these, the NROL-32 payload (Mentor 5), "the largest satellite in the world". 

The satellites feature a very large parabolic unfoldable mesh antenna, with estimates of the size of this antenna ranging from 20 to 100 (!) meter. An NSA internal newsletter from 2009 that was leaked as part of the Snowden files, contains an artist impression of the satellite which indeed features a large mesh dish antenna:

ADVANCED ORION artist impression from a 2009 leaked NSA newsletter

 

These ADVANCED ORION satellites (also known as 'Mission 7600') are huge listening 'ears' in the sky, monitoring large areas for radio emmissions, notably military COMINT (communications) and FISINT, as outlined in this leaked NSA document.

Here is an image of one of these ADVANCED ORION satellites, Mentor 4, imaged by me in January 2020. Note how much brighter it is, due to its size, than the nearby commercial geosynchronous satellite Thuraya 2 (that it is close to this commercial telecom satellite is no coincidence, see my 2016 article in The Space Review linked below):

 

click image to enlarge

From the Navigational Warnings for the launch and what we know of earlier ADVANCED ORION launches (see my 2016 Space Review paper), NROL-70 will first follow a low altitude (~200 km) coasting orbit. Near the descending node, some 25 minutes after launch, it will then boost into a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit, which some 6 hours after launch will deliver the payload to a Geosynchronous orbit.

 

NROL-70 launch trajectory. Click map to enlarge

 

It initially will likely be placed near longitude 100 E, over Indonesia and within range of the Pine Gap facility in Australia, where it will undergo checkout. It will then be moved to its operational slot, which is unknown.

Initial control will be from the joint US/Australian Pine Gap facility in Australia. Depending on where its operational position will be, control at some point might be handed over to RAF Menwith Hill in the UK.

More backgrounds on the role of these kind of SIGINT satellites can be found in this 2016 article in The Intercept and in my 2016 article in The Space Review.

Here is the text of the relevant Navigational Warning (the three hazard areas A, B and C have been plotted by me as red boxes in the map above):

 

191855Z MAR 24
NAVAREA IV 333/24(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   281740Z TO 282251Z MAR, ALTERNATE
   291737Z TO 292251Z MAR AND 011725Z TO 012251Z
   APR IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-34.73N 080-34.39W, 28-37.00N 080-20.00W,
      28-34.00N 079-44.00W, 28-30.00N 079-45.00W,
      28-28.00N 080-20.00W, 28-28.88N 080-32.26W,
      28-30.00N 080-32.80W, 28-33.65N 080-34.05W.
   B. 28-31.00N 073-23.00W, 28-22.00N 070-35.00W,
      27-51.00N 070-38.00W, 27-58.00N 073-22.00W.
   C. 22-05.00N 042-25.00W, 22-29.00N 042-17.00W,
      20-36.00N 036-57.00W, 20-22.00N 037-03.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 012351Z APR 24. 

 

Below are very approximate orbit estimates for the various phases of the launch. They are valid for launch on 28 March 2024, 17:40 UTC:

NROL-70 COASTING PHASE                        (valid 17:45-18:05 UTC)
1 70000U 24999A   24088.73611111  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
2 70000 028.4000 281.1702 0007584 097.3393 339.7290 16.21678257    00

NROL-70 GTO PHASE                             (valid 18:05-23:30 UTC)
1 70001U 24999A   24088.75364583  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
2 70001 028.4000 281.0464 7360043 179.7976 360.0000 02.21326367    09

MENTOR 10 initial placement guess              (valid from 23:30 UTC)
1 70002U 24999A   24088.98149645 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 70002   5.0000 278.2000 0001186 360.0000   2.0110  1.00277482    05

The last, Geosynchronous orbit assumes initial orbit placement at longitude 100 E at an initial orbital inclination of 5 degrees.

NRO Press kit for NROL-70
ULA Press kit for NROL-70

 

UPDATE 27 March 17:35 UTC:

Currently the weather forecast for 28 March does not look very positive, so launch might be postponed.

NROL-123

click map to enlarge

In the early hours of March 21, at 6:40 UTC, Rocketlab will launch an Electron rocket from Launch Complex 2 on Wallops, Virginia. The launch, designated NROL-123 and nicknamed "Live and Let Fly", will carry three small classified experimental payloads into Low Earth Orbit for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) . 

Navigational Warnings suggest (initial) launch into a ~47.5 degree inclined orbit. The launch trajectory will pass very close to Bermuda (see map above). According to the Rocketlab Press kit, payload release is 54 minutes after launch, after approximately half an orbital revolution. As release is near the ascending node, it is possible that the kick stage will insert the payloads into somewhat different orbital inclination(s). Orbital altitude will likely be in the order of 600-700 km.

Little is known about the character of the payloads and the type of orbit does not give a clue either.  The NRO Press kit mentions that "NROL-123 will carry three collaborative research missions". The NRO Mission patch for NROL-123 features three hexagons with respectively a dragonfly, a sunfish (Mola), and wasps. The Rocketlab launch patch also similarly features a stylized dragonfly, a fish, and a wasp.

 

NROL-123 Mission patch (image: NRO)

 

The NRO Press kit says about these symbols that: 

"The dragonfly symbolizes energy, youthful exuberance, and accomplishment - representing the use of new technology. The position of it flying through the hexagon symbolizes a new frontier, new opportunity, and new perspective. The forward movement represents the critical path of the mission. The bees are based on the idea of “small but impactful” and represent the tremendous impact the program experiments will have on the NRO mission. The sunfish, or mola, nods toward the program". 

Which is all not very enlightening, especially where the meaning of the sunfish is concerned (and they should make up their mind if it are bees or wasps - they look like the latter to me).

Here is my very cautious estimate of the launch orbit. Orbital altitude is a bit of a guess, and there is some leeway in the orbital inclination possible too:

NROL-123                     for launch on 21 March 2024 06:40:00 UTC
1 70000U 24999A   24112.27777778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
2 70000 047.5000 101.3672 0002846 134.5077 326.5399 14.73474122    04

Below is the relevant Navigational Warning for this launch (see the map in top of the post for a plot of the indicated areas):

150916Z MAR 24
NAVAREA IV 296/24(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
VIRGINIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   210615Z TO 211030Z MAR, ALTERNATE 
   0615Z TO 1030Z DAILY 22 THRU 25 MAR
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 37-51.00N 075-30.00W, 37-52.00N 075-29.00W,
      37-56.00N 075-17.00W, 38-19.00N 074-35.00W,
      37-35.00N 074-11.00W, 37-15.00N 074-20.00W,
      37-23.00N 075-18.00W, 37-30.00N 075-29.00W,
      37-44.00N 075-30.00W, 37-48.00N 075-31.00W,
      37-49.00N 075-31.00W, 37-50.00N 075-31.00W,
      37-50.00N 075-31.00W.
   B. 35-02.00N 070-55.00W, 35-56.00N 069-54.00W,
      33-15.00N 065-46.00W, 32-19.00N 066-46.00W.
   C. 27-19.00N 061-16.00W, 27-54.00N 060-27.00W,
      24-27.00N 056-36.00W, 23-50.00N 057-26.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 251130Z MAR 24.

Reconstructing the approximate reentry and disintegration position of Starship FT3 [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

Starship Flight Test 3 (see this earlier pre-launch post) was largely a success. Starship FT 3 launched from Boca Chica at 13:25 UTC (March 14, 2024) and was successfully inserted on a sub-orbital trajectory. The stage separations went well, coasting went well, and so did various other attempted milestones (such as briefly opening the cargo bay doors in space). 

There were a few small mishaps: an attempt to make a controlled water-landing of the first stage went awry, and so did the final controlled reentry attempt of Starship itself over the Indian Ocean. But in all, this was a successful test flight, providing exciting imagery during the launch and flight to boot (see end of this post).

In this post, I will try to reconstruct the approximate points of reentry: the point (at 100 km altitude) where the reentry plasma formation started, and the point were telemetry was lost (and Starship presumably disintegrated, at 65 km altitude).

The base of my reconstruction is this pre-launch TLE that I constructed for launch at 13:25:00 UTC:

STARSHIP FT3                 for launch on 14 March 2024 13:25:00 UTC
1 70000U 24999A   24074.55902778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70000 026.3000 177.8817 0153183 289.7760 142.6230 16.45958778    07

I was able to check and calibrate this elset, making use of a prominent landmark on earth visible in the webcast just before reentry started. 

At Mission Elapsed Time (MET) 00:44:09, corresponding to 14:09:09 UTC, Lake Anony on Madagascar can be briefly seen:
 

screenshot from the SpaceX webcast at MET 00:44:09 showing Lake Anony

 

The geographical area in question in a Google Earth image

 

This allowed to check with the trajectory based on my pre-launch estimated TLE. It shows that my TLE estimate basically puts the trajectory in the correct position, but that it is 27 seconds "late" on the real flight path, and a bit too low in altitude.

Two minutes later, at MET 00:46:17 (corresponding to 14:11:17 UTC), at 100 km altitude, the first clear reentry plasma can be seen forming as a red glow around the fins of Starship. This is reference point one:

 

Screenshot from SpaceX webcast. Click image to enlarge

Slightly over 3.5 minutes later, at 65 km altitude at MET 00:49:40  (corresponding to 14:14:40 UTC), telemetry is lost, and this presumably is where Starship disintegrated. This is reference point number two.

Knowing that my pre-launch TLE is 27 seconds "late", we can deduce approximate positions for reference point one (start of plasma formation) and reference point two (loss of telemetry and presumed disintegration) using the TLE.

They are at respectively 26.30 S, 55.68 E for the start of the Plasma formation, and 26.10 S, 70.87 E for telemetry loss and presumed disintegration, as indicated by the two yellow circles in the map below:

click map to enlarge

This also confirms that the controlled reentry aimed for the western part of the HYDROPAC 833/24 hazard zone (see discussion in my earlier pre-launch post here), as suggested by Jonathan McDowell, and that the eastern part of that zone was safety overshoot in case the controlled deorbit burn failed and Starship would continue on a ballistic trajectory.

 

UPDATE  15 March 2024 18:30 UTC:

I reanalysed the trajectory, using altitude data from the SpaceX webcast to create a TLE that matches the altitude against Mission Elapsed Time (MET), fits the hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings, and results in a pass south of Lake Anony in Madagascar at the correct MET:

STARSHIP FT revised elset                                -50 x 235 km
1 70012U 24999A   24074.55902778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
2 70012 026.3000 177.8795 0220000 355.7000 077.5000 16.67947166    01

As can be seen in the diagram below, this elset has a close fit to the altitudes from the SpaceX webcast (the blue dotted line is a polynomial through the altitudes from the webcast; the red crosses are the altitudes given by the TLE):

click diagram to enlarge

The resulting position for reference point one (start of plasma formation) is 26.28 S,  55.57 E. The resulting position for reference point two (loss of telemetry and presumed disintegration) is 26.13 S,  70.51 E.

click map to enlarge

The point where, 00:08:35 after launch, Starship started its coasting phase after engine cut-off is 24.491 N, 84.633 W (150 km altitude).

[end of update]

A few more images of the launch (screenshots from the SpaceX webcast):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

screenshots from SpaceX webcast