tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-151642212024-03-19T03:47:27.611+01:00SatTrackCam Leiden (b)log<b>THE SECRET SPIES IN THE SKY</b> - <i>Imagery, Data Analysis, and Discussions relating to Military Space</i><br><br><b>SatTrackCam Leiden</b> (Cospar 4353) is a satellite tracking station located at Leiden, the Netherlands. The tracking focus is on classified objects - i.e. "spy satellites". With a camera, accurate positional measurements on satellites of interest are obtained in order to determine their orbits. Orbital behaviour is analysed.
This blog analyses Missile tests too.SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.comBlogger962125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-45349205526310995482024-03-14T20:24:00.017+01:002024-03-15T19:40:01.665+01:00Reconstructing the approximate reentry and disintegration position of Starship FT3 [UPDATED]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCqbRkDIYB7hmjmXjYtm3GUiq5ZrRP1rfiikaBLRFS1lh2HzoUHOJ-sp39hswN3nxKW-jdUKwRq1Sv0En2nBKCZ4V3xyaf9PS057TFxRDwkouM6KzQJskJpvy9ypwbP5R26qWK4ueofx9ey_9jZZXQTk9jQj_C2E5fuX2JAx5DLYZwB9rE92E/s1583/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_reentrypoint_estimates_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1058" data-original-width="1583" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCqbRkDIYB7hmjmXjYtm3GUiq5ZrRP1rfiikaBLRFS1lh2HzoUHOJ-sp39hswN3nxKW-jdUKwRq1Sv0En2nBKCZ4V3xyaf9PS057TFxRDwkouM6KzQJskJpvy9ypwbP5R26qWK4ueofx9ey_9jZZXQTk9jQj_C2E5fuX2JAx5DLYZwB9rE92E/w640-h428/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_reentrypoint_estimates_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><b>Starship Flight Test 3</b> (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/03/starship-flight-test-3-upcoming.html" target="_blank">this earlier pre-launch post</a>) was largely a success. Starship FT 3 launched from Boca Chica at <b>13:25 UTC (March 14, 2024)</b> and was successfully inserted on a sub-orbital trajectory. The stage separations went well, coasting went well, and so did various other attempted milestones (such as briefly opening the cargo bay doors in space). </p><p>There were <b>a few small mishaps</b>: an attempt to make a controlled water-landing of the first stage went awry, and so did the final controlled reentry attempt of Starship itself over the Indian Ocean. But in all, <b>this was a successful test flight, </b>providing exciting imagery during the launch and flight to boot (see end of this post).</p><p><b>In this post, I will try to reconstruct the approximate points of reentry</b>: the point (at 100 km altitude) where the reentry plasma formation started, and the point were telemetry was lost (and Starship presumably disintegrated, at 65 km altitude).</p><p>The base of my reconstruction is this pre-launch TLE that I constructed for launch at 13:25:00 UTC:<br /><br /><span style="font-family: courier;">STARSHIP FT3 for launch on 14 March 2024 13:25:00 UTC<br />1 70000U 24999A 24074.55902778 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03<br />2 70000 026.3000 177.8817 0153183 289.7760 142.6230 16.45958778 07</span></p><p>I was able to check and calibrate this elset, making use of a prominent
landmark on earth visible in the webcast just before reentry started. </p><p>At <b>Mission
Elapsed Time (MET) 00:44:09</b>, corresponding to 14:09:09 UTC, <b>Lake Anony
on Madagascar</b> can be briefly seen:<br /><span style="font-family: courier;"> </span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuZTzqX-bXHPfgftKR5IscXsNvHVsEAS38n5rcPjAr8RZlOVUxo7rHhtxSxL5K3X3a4AJe_HLRkmjPVBat5ip_Z5ElL6-q639qdppMClBcYp4xrdDJ8uKkz9xn2HYTikd0Z-xkXfwLexG-6QtvcXbP6ulboD3kUEhpvxYTH1laPPltraUcVoXT/s1078/Starship_webcast_LakeAnony_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="1078" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuZTzqX-bXHPfgftKR5IscXsNvHVsEAS38n5rcPjAr8RZlOVUxo7rHhtxSxL5K3X3a4AJe_HLRkmjPVBat5ip_Z5ElL6-q639qdppMClBcYp4xrdDJ8uKkz9xn2HYTikd0Z-xkXfwLexG-6QtvcXbP6ulboD3kUEhpvxYTH1laPPltraUcVoXT/w640-h364/Starship_webcast_LakeAnony_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>screenshot from the SpaceX webcast at MET 00:44:09 showing Lake Anony</i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i> </i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9iN8BT1TIBZk6p1wJjHEY2-W8_WlyutDe-Jri21l33IHzHI4Sz0KORNkmDuVNW0eW4DY_QCZaKY5zupq_Lejcz2GC8-noApnUH3w1jfVGzK3yponAzywhWUn25jcVCOoeuTZqGxhjmlZiuFWe4GMZCkCqezDKbUoWjeY2dMJf5k2KJDGRGUQR/s1430/GE_screenshot_lake_anony.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1430" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9iN8BT1TIBZk6p1wJjHEY2-W8_WlyutDe-Jri21l33IHzHI4Sz0KORNkmDuVNW0eW4DY_QCZaKY5zupq_Lejcz2GC8-noApnUH3w1jfVGzK3yponAzywhWUn25jcVCOoeuTZqGxhjmlZiuFWe4GMZCkCqezDKbUoWjeY2dMJf5k2KJDGRGUQR/w640-h356/GE_screenshot_lake_anony.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The geographical area in question in a Google Earth image<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>This allowed to check with the trajectory based on my pre-launch estimated TLE. It shows that <b>my TLE estimate basically puts the trajectory in the correct position</b>, but that <b>it is 27 seconds "late" on the real flight path</b>, and a bit too low in altitude.</p><p>Two minutes later, at <b>MET 00:46:17</b> (corresponding to 14:11:17 UTC), at 100 km altitude, <b>the first clear reentry plasma can be seen forming as a red glow around the fins of Starship</b>. This is reference point one:</p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglzXBoKCYEpXheH1825VmaswAoaHOwc6w6eU4CNghiB1JUOyViHsHq9X5KNP2-466jmES_Y__teMlCkRG90CKgX2qnELYQ2nt_FYfU16Gee6ZLysL2nigIBYuQ80v9sbvFkL06YVeLRsOGkR1zIgtKyV6FjmeZXIY6FuUE7SdamIcxtxCnPumD/s1079/Clipboard12_startofplasma.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="1079" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglzXBoKCYEpXheH1825VmaswAoaHOwc6w6eU4CNghiB1JUOyViHsHq9X5KNP2-466jmES_Y__teMlCkRG90CKgX2qnELYQ2nt_FYfU16Gee6ZLysL2nigIBYuQ80v9sbvFkL06YVeLRsOGkR1zIgtKyV6FjmeZXIY6FuUE7SdamIcxtxCnPumD/w640-h360/Clipboard12_startofplasma.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Screenshot from SpaceX webcast. Click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>Slightly over 3.5 minutes later, at 65 km altitude at <b>MET 00:49:40</b> (corresponding to 14:14:40 UTC), <b>telemetry is lost, and this presumably is where Starship disintegrated</b>. This is reference point number two.<br /></p><p>Knowing that my pre-launch TLE is 27 seconds "late", we can deduce approximate positions for reference point one (start of plasma formation) and reference point two (loss of telemetry and presumed disintegration) using the TLE.<br /></p><p>They are at respectively <b>26.30 S, 55.68 E</b> for the <b>start of the Plasma formation</b>, and <b>26.10 S, 70.87 E</b> for <b>telemetry loss and presumed disintegration,</b> as indicated by the two yellow circles in the map below:<br /></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCqbRkDIYB7hmjmXjYtm3GUiq5ZrRP1rfiikaBLRFS1lh2HzoUHOJ-sp39hswN3nxKW-jdUKwRq1Sv0En2nBKCZ4V3xyaf9PS057TFxRDwkouM6KzQJskJpvy9ypwbP5R26qWK4ueofx9ey_9jZZXQTk9jQj_C2E5fuX2JAx5DLYZwB9rE92E/s1583/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_reentrypoint_estimates_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1058" data-original-width="1583" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCqbRkDIYB7hmjmXjYtm3GUiq5ZrRP1rfiikaBLRFS1lh2HzoUHOJ-sp39hswN3nxKW-jdUKwRq1Sv0En2nBKCZ4V3xyaf9PS057TFxRDwkouM6KzQJskJpvy9ypwbP5R26qWK4ueofx9ey_9jZZXQTk9jQj_C2E5fuX2JAx5DLYZwB9rE92E/w640-h428/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_reentrypoint_estimates_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />This also confirms that the controlled reentry <b>aimed for the western part</b> of the <i>HYDROPAC 833/24 </i>hazard zone (see discussion in <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/03/starship-flight-test-3-upcoming.html" target="_blank">my earlier pre-launch post here</a>), as suggested by Jonathan McDowell, and that the eastern part of that zone was safety overshoot in case the controlled deorbit burn failed and Starship would continue on a ballistic trajectory.</p><p> </p><p><b>UPDATE 15 March 2024 18:30 UTC:</b><br /><br />I reanalysed the trajectory, using altitude data from the SpaceX webcast to create a TLE that matches the altitude against Mission Elapsed Time (MET), fits the hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings, and results in a pass south of Lake Anony in Madagascar at the correct MET:</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">STARSHIP FT revised elset -50 x 235 km <br />1 70012U 24999A 24074.55902778 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 06<br />2 70012 026.3000 177.8795 0220000 355.7000 077.5000 16.67947166 01</span><br /></p><br /><p>As can be seen in the diagram below, this elset has a close fit to the altitudes from the SpaceX webcast (the blue dotted line is a polynomial through the altitudes from the webcast; the red crosses are the altitudes given by the TLE):<br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirwC45IB9c4m_eEB2q1PFGarlOtCcvLwXtwH7bFjCv92e7sdi84k-WnNnk9nRDWJUbLsm4QNmKFKhmbk2uFPygIcPmdJNwdF0gv5uF0gsJzV_WMJpS3IIhukONyjLdcf0HO7j4ttAnHXqrcRxk8D56bGza9nTbt9nmOMClx3lAc0LDO9iPZiIx/s1024/elsetfit.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1024" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirwC45IB9c4m_eEB2q1PFGarlOtCcvLwXtwH7bFjCv92e7sdi84k-WnNnk9nRDWJUbLsm4QNmKFKhmbk2uFPygIcPmdJNwdF0gv5uF0gsJzV_WMJpS3IIhukONyjLdcf0HO7j4ttAnHXqrcRxk8D56bGza9nTbt9nmOMClx3lAc0LDO9iPZiIx/w640-h338/elsetfit.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /><br />The resulting position for reference point one (<b>start of plasma formation</b>) is <b>26.28 S, 55.57 E</b>. The resulting position for reference point two (<b>loss of telemetry and presumed disintegration</b>) is <b>26.13 S, 70.51 E</b>.</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6YRVcOQo6w4MHeJBDDx7dSo7vu_Gn4Q3yZnjAyiTO3bPnhC1wbk34o1-dJMIsrbohq1jODZr2ZuCsfjrJvZ5mTFwARC640R2eEpBF3_rNE4jX2vtpZu4YIzyP1JUhhnP4wpeMlFlr2abEJa58jexMMb9a5c3dZSinpSD9_yWUnzO67yMAO0vY/s1690/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_1325UTC_webcastfitted_anot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="871" data-original-width="1690" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6YRVcOQo6w4MHeJBDDx7dSo7vu_Gn4Q3yZnjAyiTO3bPnhC1wbk34o1-dJMIsrbohq1jODZr2ZuCsfjrJvZ5mTFwARC640R2eEpBF3_rNE4jX2vtpZu4YIzyP1JUhhnP4wpeMlFlr2abEJa58jexMMb9a5c3dZSinpSD9_yWUnzO67yMAO0vY/w640-h330/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_1325UTC_webcastfitted_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p>The point where, 00:08:35 after launch, Starship started its <b>coasting phase after engine cut-off</b> is <b>24.491 N, 84.633 W</b> (150 km altitude).<br /></p><p><i>[end of update]</i><br /></p><p>A few more images of the launch (<b>screenshots from the SpaceX webcast</b>):</p><p> </p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhEejqR8A9G518w3af0jRk9EAGmaQ4T58hwHErT2fmLEGtGgwmQLK1o6RtJvVFed0aU9kzrMU6BsaW6sT59iz1lJy3pYykFyLxqf6ElcAZBQ__SUg9eoUbvYYnp_3EzIHzULCdrDtZgNJuQIldgrqKIondmHkk2WU0EAqRhLfqAjI4MBSKEURp/s1081/Clipboard02.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="1081" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhEejqR8A9G518w3af0jRk9EAGmaQ4T58hwHErT2fmLEGtGgwmQLK1o6RtJvVFed0aU9kzrMU6BsaW6sT59iz1lJy3pYykFyLxqf6ElcAZBQ__SUg9eoUbvYYnp_3EzIHzULCdrDtZgNJuQIldgrqKIondmHkk2WU0EAqRhLfqAjI4MBSKEURp/w640-h360/Clipboard02.jpg" width="640" /></a><br /></p><p></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3At0YSL4_BkA5BHZpjt-xJ627mecE9sFpwvCWyog_G826lILgXHVT38XrQ8047-Q393Gk932t2C-7jF4Xuyy9q-VWT1M4NxLOM7q-8WUp4zd9466bQnk-80sRhG9KtGvdoYjRwTClgIT6aVutyFcDxr0wXjTtweuqiQ6Ilq5kts52uO3yDZ7w/s1083/Clipboard03.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="1083" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3At0YSL4_BkA5BHZpjt-xJ627mecE9sFpwvCWyog_G826lILgXHVT38XrQ8047-Q393Gk932t2C-7jF4Xuyy9q-VWT1M4NxLOM7q-8WUp4zd9466bQnk-80sRhG9KtGvdoYjRwTClgIT6aVutyFcDxr0wXjTtweuqiQ6Ilq5kts52uO3yDZ7w/w640-h360/Clipboard03.jpg" width="640" /></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhesL-Hu3lVcf4-kf-1X6y2ef73ajbfVy5N_8wXRDJS8rp9ZyHGcrJisUQxudey-kUcybnWHZNRKf9pgmBZkVg0-ZH1qNZIm9oZKU1ypodaJGQkyi8rQRbGV4OgO8MQMZIUbUwNEMRFkx1rNzdMJ7FZ4hYLAQFycPOZhsfRBBgtZpNB73QKrUQO/s1081/Clipboard13_reentry_plasma.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="1081" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhesL-Hu3lVcf4-kf-1X6y2ef73ajbfVy5N_8wXRDJS8rp9ZyHGcrJisUQxudey-kUcybnWHZNRKf9pgmBZkVg0-ZH1qNZIm9oZKU1ypodaJGQkyi8rQRbGV4OgO8MQMZIUbUwNEMRFkx1rNzdMJ7FZ4hYLAQFycPOZhsfRBBgtZpNB73QKrUQO/w640-h358/Clipboard13_reentry_plasma.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>screenshots from SpaceX webcast</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-84059268306623070292024-03-13T18:14:00.020+01:002024-03-14T18:37:44.877+01:00Starship Flight Test 3 upcoming<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgASgS8qUcgSxTbIeWjnV5oKun2Ocly7KFt3GA5XQjkhlRplBWujm3YSxsiL8HqvJFhxxXm-y_uULeI_ee7b53TiBReMVR9Ajz18mf2DGS5NEaTZtnStOsfyPFuS3xhTY8pXc0JcjnjJeLuQD20L7e0tVh0SsDQvmiRr4s0AO4a03KagAceEGf/s1694/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_1200UTC_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1694" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgASgS8qUcgSxTbIeWjnV5oKun2Ocly7KFt3GA5XQjkhlRplBWujm3YSxsiL8HqvJFhxxXm-y_uULeI_ee7b53TiBReMVR9Ajz18mf2DGS5NEaTZtnStOsfyPFuS3xhTY8pXc0JcjnjJeLuQD20L7e0tVh0SsDQvmiRr4s0AO4a03KagAceEGf/w640-h332/STARSHIP_FT3_14March2024_1200UTC_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>Pending FAA approval (i.e., the launch date might well be postponed), SpaceX aims to launch <b>Starship Flight Test 3</b> this week. Navigational Warnings issued indicate a window opening at <b>12:00 UTC</b> on <b>March 14, 2024</b>.</p><p>The flight trajectory<b> differs</b> from the previous two ill-fated test flights (which both disintegrated early in flight, see an earlier post <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/where-did-starship-fragments-end-up.html" target="_blank">here</a> concerning FT 2). </p><p>FT 1 and FT 2 targetted a splashdown near Hawaii after slightly less than one full orbital revolution. <b>FT 3 however has a much shorter flight path</b>, aiming to <b>splash down in the Indian Ocean</b> west of Australia after <b>half</b> a (sub-) orbital revolution.</p><p>The map above shows the hazard zones for the launch, from Navigational Warnings <i>NAVAREA IV 278/24</i> and <i>HYDROPAC 833/24</i>, and <b>the flight trajectory these indicate</b>. Numbers next to the trajectory represent the approximate flight time in minutes after launch.<br /></p><p><b>The hazard zone in the Gulf of Mexico differs from that of FT 1 and FT2 </b> by being much more extended (perhaps a lesson from the last in-flight disintegration with fragments splashing down far downrange, near the Bahamas and the Dominican Republic: see an earlier blogpost <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/where-did-starship-fragments-end-up.html" target="_blank">here</a>). It also has a remarkable shape - my tendency for pareidolia kicks in and sees a Plesiosaur in it. I wonder what the protrusions mean, especially the one near Florida and Cuba that appears to suggest a backwards motion. </p><p>The reentry and splash-down hazard zone at the end of the flight path spans almost the full width of the Indian Ocean, starting near Madagascar and ending near Australia.</p><p>I estimate the following (sub-) orbit for the flight test:</p><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">STARSHIP FT3 for launch on 14 March 2024 13:25:00 UTC<br />1 70000U 24999A 24074.55902778 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03<br />2 70000 026.3000 177.8817 0153183 289.7760 142.6230 16.45958778 07<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: courier;"><br /></span></p><p> SpaceX has <b>some ambitious aims</b> for this flight test, which according to their website (as retrieved 13-03-2024) include:</p><p> </p><p></p><blockquote>"<i>the successful ascent burn of both stages, opening and closing
Starship’s payload door, a propellant transfer demonstration during the
upper stage’s coast phase, the first ever re-light of a Raptor engine
while in space, and a controlled reentry of Starship</i>"</blockquote><p></p><p><br /></p><p>Let's however await first whether it actually does not have a RUD ('<i>Rapid Unscheduled Disintegration</i>') again early in flight, as FT 2 did... </p><p><i><b>Note</b> added 14 March 2024 9:50 UTC:</i></p><p>Jonathan McDowell has suggested to me that the controlled reentry likely aims for the western part of the Indian Ocean hazard zone from <i>HYDROPAC 833/24, </i>with the eastern part being a safety overshoot in case the deorbit fails. That makes sense to me.<i><br /></i></p><p><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-14037099072711192352024-03-10T19:07:00.016+01:002024-03-14T11:41:40.879+01:00A so far unidentified object in GEO near PAN and Eutelsat Hot Bird 13B [UPDATED]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRyryHsnRQ-KC544XANtwDFeCJb1m8BFyP4g39CpmpOPYXHVFHtsudy3jAnAYYWxZgG4OFh40A1UTLCtskHquO8PdvHOjRjxBS1YxirzMWN_HxFJhBAb97-PhzwBjp6FGO2ujdo3IJwpncAdCLKLxy7nmOmQb17OM5AO-hCKKAHD9V8QskZiBU/s1600/PAN_10sec_Bin1_4Mar2024_210838.567UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRyryHsnRQ-KC544XANtwDFeCJb1m8BFyP4g39CpmpOPYXHVFHtsudy3jAnAYYWxZgG4OFh40A1UTLCtskHquO8PdvHOjRjxBS1YxirzMWN_HxFJhBAb97-PhzwBjp6FGO2ujdo3IJwpncAdCLKLxy7nmOmQb17OM5AO-hCKKAHD9V8QskZiBU/w640-h300/PAN_10sec_Bin1_4Mar2024_210838.567UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>PAN on March 4, 2024 (click image to enlarge)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0mrVfOKaDbb9u7L0cAKLMHVPPkoy-uJypG7YBuRpR6yxP5AU3fppSTVFOy2nP-M9T3M-q3UvzHq2Af7XypFtDq3raTwKOj9m8BAVaqovF2XiHbwQu1F94oSb2gcuAGgjgcN1Us51vnU4lcZX2T2DvoRwlyzDeo96UI8Cy-zmWQKwAfWam4GT1/s1600/PAN_UNID_10sec_Bin1_8Mar2024_205712.692UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0mrVfOKaDbb9u7L0cAKLMHVPPkoy-uJypG7YBuRpR6yxP5AU3fppSTVFOy2nP-M9T3M-q3UvzHq2Af7XypFtDq3raTwKOj9m8BAVaqovF2XiHbwQu1F94oSb2gcuAGgjgcN1Us51vnU4lcZX2T2DvoRwlyzDeo96UI8Cy-zmWQKwAfWam4GT1/w640-h300/PAN_UNID_10sec_Bin1_8Mar2024_205712.692UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>UNID near PAN on March 8, 2024 (click image to enlarge)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>In the evening of March 8 I did some observations to check upon the drifting <b>PAN/NEMESIS-1</b> satellite. To my surprise, <b>there was another object there</b> that is not in the current catalogue (as of 10 March 2024). It wasn't there yet when I imaged the area 4 days earlier, in the evening of March 4, as can be seen by comparing the two images above.</p><p>Most likely this UNID is <b>some commercial geosynchronous satellite that has been relocated without the 18th STS having caught that move yet</b>. But it could also be <b>something new</b>. For now, it remains unidentified.</p><p>The UNID is located at about 33.8 E longitude. A <i>very</i> provisional elset:</p><p><br /> <span style="font-family: courier;">UNID ML080324<br />1 99999U 24000X 24068.68698391 0.00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03<br />2 99999 0.0001 87.9800 0002372 229.7255 130.2564 1.00270000 07</span><br /><br /></p><p>The object could perhaps be the newly launched Chinese satellite<b> WHG-01</b> (2024-040A). <a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/02/launch-roundup-022224/" target="_blank">It was launched from Xichang a week ago</a>, on<b> 29 February 2024</b>. Currently (March 11, 2024), only an 8-day old GTO elset is available for the object. That elset combined with the elset for the UNID above suggests that the satellite could have been inserted into GEO at 33.8 E on <b>March 6 near 11 UTC</b>.<br /></p><p>Over the half hour arc that I imaged it on March 8, the UNID remained stationary. </p><p>PAN/NEMESIS-1 is meanwhile slowly drifting west (the drift can be seen in the images above too, by comparing the distance of PAN/NEMESIS-1 to EUTELSAT HOT BIRD B13), as it has been doing for quite a while now. On 2024 March 8 it was near longitude 33.45 E. It is currently drifting at a rate of approximately -0.03 degrees per day.</p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictehwYy8N-Bvtj3b-gUHhE7-8RmJpOJza4A0LXQcDnhYlpl202GobbFcMsf-T2lzPkp4j1-1OduoevB6xqEGrt6mz_6WBOH3bAxrkXiwqWXIEUpmwbGi1i6DH8JMvR01g5FepgxvcciLheE7WiWlY3rga2vAaqZ54caSS-MUzB_4dkSvu01za/s913/PAN_longitudes.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="913" data-original-width="830" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEictehwYy8N-Bvtj3b-gUHhE7-8RmJpOJza4A0LXQcDnhYlpl202GobbFcMsf-T2lzPkp4j1-1OduoevB6xqEGrt6mz_6WBOH3bAxrkXiwqWXIEUpmwbGi1i6DH8JMvR01g5FepgxvcciLheE7WiWlY3rga2vAaqZ54caSS-MUzB_4dkSvu01za/w582-h640/PAN_longitudes.png" width="582" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>PAN longitude of subsatellite point over time (click diagram to enlarge)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><i>NOTE: an initial mix-up of the names of two recently launched Chinese GEO sats was corrected.</i></p><p><b></b></p><p><b> </b></p><p><b>UPDATE 14 March 2024: </b><br /></p><p>Space-Track, since yesterday (first non-GTO TLE has epoch <i>24073.71736125</i> = 13 March 2024 17:13 UTC), finally also places an object in this position, catalogue nr 59069, COSPAR 2024-040A. Provisionally named "Object A", but the Cospar code indicates this would indeed be the Chinese satellite <b>WHG-01</b>.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-7287579411449847632024-03-10T14:00:00.005+01:002024-03-10T14:11:45.498+01:00The ISS EP9 battery pack observed on its last revolution before reentry<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIZL2ududk2U6zHqelsLoeYuhcXPr-sAzD7swWORuTxr8dReqYEWwdcCLb0xnQE1lF5BmiipRHXGN2bCBF-w21QuF9N-k-v0P2NGx0_yATTdo-Tuk5kZfPUSBIOVhYXebFxUMGH-heLahOD6vnbwOBUeL_52WH_Zf1zIthxci5fUhkJKMkDFmG/s1700/ISS_EP6_BATTERY_predecay_s20240308_181722UTC_35mm.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1134" data-original-width="1700" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIZL2ududk2U6zHqelsLoeYuhcXPr-sAzD7swWORuTxr8dReqYEWwdcCLb0xnQE1lF5BmiipRHXGN2bCBF-w21QuF9N-k-v0P2NGx0_yATTdo-Tuk5kZfPUSBIOVhYXebFxUMGH-heLahOD6vnbwOBUeL_52WH_Zf1zIthxci5fUhkJKMkDFmG/w640-h426/ISS_EP6_BATTERY_predecay_s20240308_181722UTC_35mm.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>ISS EP9 battery imaged on 8 March 2024 18:17 UTC (click image to enlarge)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>On 11 January 2021, <b>a 2.6-tons car-sized container with old NiH batteries</b> was detached from the International Space Station using the Canadarm2 robotic arm, and <a href="https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2021/03/11/worm-observations-eye-checks-as-weekend-spacewalk-approaches/" target="_blank">released into space</a>. The object, called "<b>ISS DEB (EP BATERRY)</b>" by CSpOC, catalogue number47853, COSPAR 1998-067RZ, had since been slowly coming down for an uncontrolled reentry.<br /></p><p><b>This reentry happened on 8 March 2024, at 19:29 +- 1 m UTC</b> <a href="http://www.space-track.org" target="_blank">according to CSpOC</a>, <b>near 22 N, 85.5 W</b>, over Yucatan and the western Caribean (the +-1 minute time uncertainty indicates that this is likely based on a SBIRS satellite detection of the reentry fireball).<br /></p><p>Earlier similar packs of discarded NiH batteries were taken onboard visiting HTV supply spacecraft, to return and burn up in a controlled reentry with the HTV. For this last pallet, no HTV was available anymore, hence why it was unceremoniously tossed into space for a natural, uncontrolled reentry.</p><p> </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BmRok4GQnNDiN2wkeEa-TILP5cllJSsNE-Ad_UCNl7ys6ky-CSdLbJNzYbEDc7tCg1OFihaPUV3jE6LdTc-HpKm4UiB8oYHcUVKJVxK_qcGYlmyOfDdrfGX_wrXdIyBFGjIHrfUQqHcfyDzNQ4Jsf_2xGC013qae9KSn9CAy1qktWTGDti4W/s1282/ISS_batt_Canadarm_NASA.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1282" data-original-width="720" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BmRok4GQnNDiN2wkeEa-TILP5cllJSsNE-Ad_UCNl7ys6ky-CSdLbJNzYbEDc7tCg1OFihaPUV3jE6LdTc-HpKm4UiB8oYHcUVKJVxK_qcGYlmyOfDdrfGX_wrXdIyBFGjIHrfUQqHcfyDzNQ4Jsf_2xGC013qae9KSn9CAy1qktWTGDti4W/w360-h640/ISS_batt_Canadarm_NASA.webp" width="360" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Canadarm2 releasing the container with NiH batteries into space (image: NASA)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><b>In Germany,</b> for some odd reason the news of the imminent reentry <b>lead to a minor scare, </b>with<b> the German government issuing an alert through their cellphone civilian alert system</b>, as the object would briefly pass over Germany within the (at that time almost a day wide!) reentry uncertainty window.</p><p>This alert was unnecessary in my opinion: yes, this was not a small object, and more solid than a rocket stage, but still, objects this size and mass and even bigger reenter <i>several times a month</i> - this was not an unusually large piece of space debris reentering. The very weekend following on this reentry for example, a 5-tons Chinese rocket stage, i.e. twice as heavy, would have an uncontrolled reentry as well. </p><p>Chances of the pallet with discarded batteries coming down over Germany were less than 1%, and even if it would have done so, it would break up into much smaller pieces during reentry, and most of these would burn up in the atmosphere. Some pieces might survive and reach Earth surface, as with any reentry of a somewhat larger object, but the hazard is relatively small and is not of catastrophic proportions. <b>Using the civilian alert system for catastrophies to issue alerts was panic-football, in my opinion, and it unnecessarily spread fear</b>. </p><p>Maybe it was meant to avoid panic in case of a reentry - with a spectacular light show in the sky and possible sonic booms - over Germany: but this alert reached the opposite I feel, creating unrest rather than avoiding it.<br /></p><p><b>On its last orbit</b>, slightly over an hour before reentry, <b>I imaged the object passing over Leiden</b>,<b> the Netherlands</b> around <b>18:17 UTC</b> (March 8: 19:17 local time), as can be seen in the image above. This was in early twilight.</p><p>The object was moving very fast, zipping across the blue twilight sky, and bright: at magntiude -1 to -2 brighter than the brightest stars in the sky. I had no trouble seeing it naked eye. The image in top of this post is a 1/25th second exposure showing it passing through the constellation Auriga, almost right overhead (the bright twilight sky combined with a fast wide angle lensnecessitated a short exposure time).</p><p>A day earlier, on March 7th when all the anxiety in Germany erupted, I filmed it under terrible observing conditions (clouds came in just as the object was about to pass), where it was bright enough to shine through the clouds:</p><p><br /><iframe allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="512" src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/921707735?h=16a6c11e34&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" width="640"></iframe></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-80474242133832953092024-02-27T20:01:00.013+01:002024-02-28T00:15:06.091+01:00A perigee-raising manoeuvre by the North Korean satellite Malligyong-1<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz_rmP7F8p4HlvMoYcF7nfH1q-LNfRn7y67bdxKm3lbUDUj-WN9_TrrFW8TDUKjK5dXpNsl_atbyBIjLHerxeCzpYr9Zfz1js7l2yj3zSmbMK0FhsdfGuf1qY4foOa2nLUYJolnvsroIhpoIVtFuh3CCkX2rNDEwabsh9gqOWd71qONb8ahasl/s1359/PIC0074154_uitsnede.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1035" data-original-width="1359" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz_rmP7F8p4HlvMoYcF7nfH1q-LNfRn7y67bdxKm3lbUDUj-WN9_TrrFW8TDUKjK5dXpNsl_atbyBIjLHerxeCzpYr9Zfz1js7l2yj3zSmbMK0FhsdfGuf1qY4foOa2nLUYJolnvsroIhpoIVtFuh3CCkX2rNDEwabsh9gqOWd71qONb8ahasl/w640-h488/PIC0074154_uitsnede.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Kim Jong Un inspecting a Malligyong satellite under construction in 2023. image: KCNA</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />On 21 November 2023 (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/north-korea-successfully-launches-their.html" target="_blank">this earlier blogpost</a>), after two failed earlier attempts, <b>North Korea</b> launched its first military reconnaissance satellite, <b>Malligyong-1</b> (2023-179A), using its new Chollima-1 rocket. <p></p><p>Like two civilian predecessors (KMS 3-2 in 2012 and KMS-4 in 2016), it did indeed reach orbit - an initialy <b>512 x 493 km, 97.43 degree inclined Sun-Synchonous orbit</b>. But: although North Korea in the days and weeks after launch claimed the satellite took images of various US and South Korean Naval bases and other important locations (such as the White House),<b> it was not clear whether the satellite was really functional</b>. </p><p>North Korea never made any purported imagery taken by the satellite public, and independent radio trackers never detected any signals from the satellite.</p><p>But now we can definitely say <b>the satellite is aliv</b>e, On <b>February 19, 2024</b>, it initiated the first of <b>a number of successive perigee raising manoeuver</b>s that stepwise brought perigee (the lowest point in its orbit) up from 488 km to 497 km. It can be seen as the stepped "jump" in the red line in the diagram below, which maps the evolution of the apogee and perigee height of the orbit since launch:<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfcoWudYxpB4-EfS89Ox8lHW-6oQ-B3bhEV3bMQFiK9B-QUzh_j3Mz4FoGqJglfXa_b2UqVfP3LNJ9Dq69pEZaW1O5R3xtV8fLzTrkFe3tK_sZSF7mRy1Qbvn92pC7sdTFStVRv3-4b6KnGIDhrqUVntHbXAZLvHTpLTBJzwWZnIgF13F-ipV/s1022/Malligyong1_orbev.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="1022" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfcoWudYxpB4-EfS89Ox8lHW-6oQ-B3bhEV3bMQFiK9B-QUzh_j3Mz4FoGqJglfXa_b2UqVfP3LNJ9Dq69pEZaW1O5R3xtV8fLzTrkFe3tK_sZSF7mRy1Qbvn92pC7sdTFStVRv3-4b6KnGIDhrqUVntHbXAZLvHTpLTBJzwWZnIgF13F-ipV/w640-h386/Malligyong1_orbev.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>The orbit raise appears to have been performed stepwise, in five increments,<b> starting on February 19/20</b> and <b>completed by February 24</b>. The net effect was not only a perigee raise, but also a more circular orbit (currently 508 x 497 km).<br /></p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWGgFNGS-utEkAAIkWdpg_XNSeJbPTQiONcaeuNr-LipKlDQ9O_ZDt3PrLkYxsP7xOpIE3EXO0CHcvX5rzu6fdlIOZ5CG_fVQ_uyj2z_xDt7e0ICwjF11AE5YNbTaB2WEuk5I-zUj-Dlj4qaCOSeqE_e9kNpuuvv4klBrNdka7swABxrraOli/s1022/Malligyong1_orbev_det.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="1022" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaWGgFNGS-utEkAAIkWdpg_XNSeJbPTQiONcaeuNr-LipKlDQ9O_ZDt3PrLkYxsP7xOpIE3EXO0CHcvX5rzu6fdlIOZ5CG_fVQ_uyj2z_xDt7e0ICwjF11AE5YNbTaB2WEuk5I-zUj-Dlj4qaCOSeqE_e9kNpuuvv4klBrNdka7swABxrraOli/w640-h386/Malligyong1_orbev_det.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>The manoeuvre <b>proves that</b> <b>Malligyong-1 is not dead</b>, and that <b>North-Korea has control over the satellite</b> - something that was disputed.<br /></p><p>South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, commenting on the North Korean satellite, <b>just this week</b> <a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/02/113_369582.html" target="_blank">remarked</a> that it: "<i>is currently in orbit. But it is not showing any signs of performing tasks or engaging in reconnaissance activities</i>". Thus suggesting the satellite is not working.<br /></p><p>That remark didn't age well: while we indeed currently can not be sure whether the satellite does successfully take imagery, it at least performs orbital manoeuvres, <b>so in that sense it is functional</b>. And to do such manoeuvers, you need to have the satellite under control,<b> including attitude control</b>.<br /></p><p>The orbit raising manoeuver comes a bit as a <b>surprise</b>, as <b>the presence of an onboard propulsion system</b> is <b>unexpected</b>. The previous two North Korean satellites never manoeuvered. That Malligyong-1 has means of propulsion, was not something I and many other analysts expected.<br /></p><p><b>Having the capacity to raise the satellite's orbit is a big deal</b>. It means that North Korea, as long as there is fuel left in the satellite, can <b>prolong the satellite's orbital lifetime</b>, by raising its orbit when it gets too low due to natural orbital decay: thus delaying reentry into the atmosphere.<br /></p><p>The orbit raise comes at a moment that <a href="https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/02/113_369582.html" target="_blank">some western observers expect</a> that North Korea will launch another satellite soon.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-50895505617373639602024-02-21T12:37:00.004+01:002024-02-21T16:31:54.789+01:00January UK Trident-II D5 SLBM test failed<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzbL8lU1dCj13TG8_MjcMZgc2XTzKXV798X-md1SB5-ckEnJsebosyH8bqudwsRr5E-RVncshE6ztFStpXDdjD-LqCzRKMRWOSqILkqO-UtpTffWv49gsbg_QBLt4r97GnB5QOQsukSidv8_xCV5ztpPp9wi-UppvJr_VPdSveLPrAJKzRD2-E/s1675/UK_trident_30jan2024_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1675" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzbL8lU1dCj13TG8_MjcMZgc2XTzKXV798X-md1SB5-ckEnJsebosyH8bqudwsRr5E-RVncshE6ztFStpXDdjD-LqCzRKMRWOSqILkqO-UtpTffWv49gsbg_QBLt4r97GnB5QOQsukSidv8_xCV5ztpPp9wi-UppvJr_VPdSveLPrAJKzRD2-E/w640-h432/UK_trident_30jan2024_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>It probably generated a lot of <i>Stiff Upper Lip</i> and an "<i>Ow well, that is regrettable Old Boy</i>...." from the UK Defense Secretary and the UK Royal Navy Commander that were on scene to witness the test.</p><p>For British media (e.g. <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26070479/trident-nuke-sub-missile-launch-fails/" target="_blank">The Sun here</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68355395" target="_blank">the BBC here</a>) report that the <b>30 January Trident-II D5 SLBM test</b> <b>launch</b> from the British Royal Navy submarine <b>HMS Vanguard, </b>on which I wrote earlier <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/01/an-upcoming-british-royal-navy-trident.html" target="_blank">here</a>, <b>failed</b>.</p><p>From the description of the failure by <i>The Sun</i>, the suggestion is that the first stage failed to ignite after ejection of the missile from the submarine. As a result, it fell back into sea close to the submarine.</p><p>A previous British Royal Navy Trident test launch, in 2016, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/23/how-did-the-trident-test-fail-and-what-did-theresa-may-know" target="_blank">failed as well</a> when the missile veered into the wrong direction after launch and had to be destroyed in flight.</p><p>In general, the Trident-II D5 is a reliable missile. The US Navy test-fires Trident SLBM's frequently, and most of their tests reportedly were successful. It just seems the British have bad luck lately.</p><p>UPDATE: <a href="https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2024-02-21/hcws272" target="_blank">Statement by the UK Ministry of Defense to UK Parliament</a> on the matter.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-75333890282597231782024-02-16T13:19:00.063+01:002024-02-18T18:48:57.024+01:00Nukes in Space?<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPEo0my6EALSIQLy8Mb8P5wakMn1tnaUwZ622zMJQcZjfMiqT72ZijIf7vra4_dLyQ79-9vY5DOK1FT7Xs4gaZNw4t0dpmVPicjrphP03kwx9GZBihsERWeJ_Odh-xDcI8yIQlKRkNz1weHPcPf17LYT4rMWUjyIoH3_hTOdV_Pk74sZeq8L6/s460/Operation_Dominic_Starfish-Prime_nuclear_test_from_plane.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="451" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPEo0my6EALSIQLy8Mb8P5wakMn1tnaUwZ622zMJQcZjfMiqT72ZijIf7vra4_dLyQ79-9vY5DOK1FT7Xs4gaZNw4t0dpmVPicjrphP03kwx9GZBihsERWeJ_Odh-xDcI8yIQlKRkNz1weHPcPf17LYT4rMWUjyIoH3_hTOdV_Pk74sZeq8L6/w628-h640/Operation_Dominic_Starfish-Prime_nuclear_test_from_plane.jpg" width="628" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>ionospheric glow caused by Starfish Prime, a 1962 nuclear detonation in Space (image: Wikimedia)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>It sounds a bit like the fictituous <i>Goldeneye</i> satellite from the 1995 Bond movie of that same name: <b>a secret Russian weapon in space waiting to unleash doom</b>.</p><p>The past few days the media have been abuzz about <b>a purported Russian Space Weapon</b>, either nuclear or not, either deployed or not. </p><p>The initial source was US Congressman Michael R. Turner, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, who in an unprecedented public letter to House members said he had concerns about a <b>"<i>serious national security threath</i>"</b>, urging President Biden to declassify the information. Subsequently, various US news sources quoted various of the proverbial "anonymous sources", with often conflicting information about the nature of the threath, but all indicating some kind of <b>Russian</b> <b>space weapon</b>.</p><p>What kind of weapon exactly, is unclear, although it seems to be an Anti-Satellite weapon of some sorts (see below). What caught the attention is that the 'anonymous sources' seemed to indicate something <b>nuclear</b>: either a <i>nuclear weapon</i> in space, or a <i>nuclear powered</i> <i>satellite</i>. Whether this is correct or not or just paranoia, is unclear at the moment.</p><p>A spokesman of the US White House <i>National Security Council</i>, ret. Admiral John Kirby, in reply briefed the press but with little pertinent extra information, apart from stating that he could confirm that <b>"<i>it</i> <i>is related to an anti-satellite capability that Russia is developing</i>"</b>:<br /></p><p><br /></p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kW7oKYxBSxE?si=I3jae1MZlzGR462x&start=217" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><p> </p><p>He also made it clear that it is <b>"<i>not an active capability that has been deployed</i>"</b>. In other words, there is currently not a weapon already lurking in space. And, he did clarify that it does not concern something targetting objects on the Earth surface.<br /></p><p>It should also be noted that Kirby did <b>not</b> unambiguously mention (see below for what I exactly mean with that) that the 'capability' in question is <i>nuclear</i>, so this remains an unverifiable rumour from anonymous sources that might or might not be wrong. </p><p>However, at 26:45 into the press conference, he does confirm that this Russian capacity is<b> '<i>space-based</i>': </b>i.e. not a kinetic interceptor fired from earth, but a weapon to be deployed on-orbit; and he states, interestingly enough, that it <b>"<i>would be a violation of the Outer Space Treaty</i>"</b>. </p><p>The latter is an interesting phrasing and could <b>perhaps be taken to indicate something nuclear</b> <b>after all</b> (but: see what is following), as the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gares/ARES_21_2222E.pdf" target="_blank">1967 OST</a>, to which Russia is a signatory State, in <b>article IV</b> of the Treaty <b>prohibits the deployment of Weapons of Mass Destruction</b> (and <b>very specifically nuclear weapons</b>) in space. </p><p><b>On the other hand</b>, the remark of "violating the OST" might simply refer to <b>Article VII</b>, that holds parties to the OST <b>responsible for any damage they inflict in space on satellites from other Nations</b>; or <b>Article IX </b>that says that signatory States should avoid<b> "harmfull contamination"</b> of Space (such as the creation of harmfull space debris from an ASAT test). </p><p>So it all remains ambiguous here and the 'capability' in question might not have any nuclear aspects (e.g. being nuclear-powered, which is not a violation of the OST, or a nuclear weapon, which is) at all, depending on how you interpret the wording of Kirby's statements. There is a lot of interpretational wiggle room here.<br /></p><p>That Russia is pursuing anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities is <b>nothing new</b>. In November 2021, they conducted a much-criticized kinetic ASAT test targeting and destroying their Kosmos 1408 satellite (see my earlier posts <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2021/11/russian-conducted-destructive-asat-test.html" target="_blank">here</a> and more elaborate <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2021/12/some-first-analytical-results-on-debris.html" target="_blank">here</a>) that created orbital debris in Low Earth Orbit and made astronauts and kosmonauts onboard the ISS briefly take shelter in their Soyuz capsule. </p><p>The new element of the capability that is now the subject of all this discussion, appears to be that <b>it is to be space-based</b>. But even that is not really new. Over the past years, there has been much concern about Russian proximity operations in space (Russian satellites approaching other satellites, either Russian or from other countries, very closely: or ejecting sub-satellites/apparent projectiles).</p><p>In 1987, the former Soviet Union attempted to launch <b>a prototype space-based laser weapon</b>, <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyus_(spacecraft)" target="_blank"> </a></b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyus_(spacecraft)" target="_blank">Polyus/Skif</a> (that launch failed). Maybe they are up to something like that again. And for a long time, it is said that Russia is working on <b>a nuclear-powered electronic warfare satellite</b>, <a href="https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3809/1https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48342.0" target="_blank">Ekipazh</a>.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEire0y5M9MdBzWXfTwNYoZF1G8whhDaoRts_2L9WTL99gCXYAHBoB-F2SlmKUhcxWXdW4vn6moWVcmMsNQaQYnJ_TlSThB3Hrd6q7eB-FoCzxwQmLJvP9-QsCEQGj1utxsI2dEPUhlYRzEwhTnfNQuPz0j-EzLZlEjE7R0hK3Q56w5HffuE7j6C/s1670/LUCH2_10sec_85mm_Bin1_20sept2023_200545.710UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1670" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEire0y5M9MdBzWXfTwNYoZF1G8whhDaoRts_2L9WTL99gCXYAHBoB-F2SlmKUhcxWXdW4vn6moWVcmMsNQaQYnJ_TlSThB3Hrd6q7eB-FoCzxwQmLJvP9-QsCEQGj1utxsI2dEPUhlYRzEwhTnfNQuPz0j-EzLZlEjE7R0hK3Q56w5HffuE7j6C/w640-h344/LUCH2_10sec_85mm_Bin1_20sept2023_200545.710UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>proximity operation of the Russian LUCH/OLYMP 2 SIGINT satellite close to a commercial geostationary satellite, as seen in this image I made from Leiden on 20 Sept 2023</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>In general, ASAT weapons are usually not weapons that are smart to use, as they do more harm than good.</p><p>Both kinetic ASAT weapons (that destroy satellites and in that process generate a lot of potentially harmful orbital debris) and nuclear detonations in space for use as ASAT, are <i><b>indisciminate</b></i> weapons that do not only harm your target, but potentially also harm <i>other </i>satellites,<i><b> including your own satellites</b></i> and those of Nations not part of the conflict in question. </p><p>This is not the case for every ASAT weapon though. For example, a weapon that would attach to a target satellite and mechanically or electronically sabotage it, would be less harmfull to other satellites, although it does produce at least one piece of space debris, a dead satellite. <br /></p><p>[<i>clarification added 17:30 UTC on 16 Feb 2024: <br />The paragraphs below discuss a nuclear EMP device in space. There is however another option, that of a nuclear<b> powered</b> but in itself not nuclear ASAT weapon, where a nuclear reactor provides the power source for another type of weapon, e.g. a very powerful laser</i> <i>(see the mention of Polyus above) or radio jammer (see the mention of Ekipazh above)</i>.<i> This was one of the SDI concepts back in the 1980'ies. Nuclear powered satellites in itself are not new: both the Soviet Union and the USA have used them in the past, for example the Soviet RORSAT's that used nuclear power to power a powerful radar. Nuclear powered satellites do not violate the OST.</i>]</p><p>As the <b>nuclear spectre</b> was raised by the 'anonymous sources'
(which could have political agendas to do so), let's discuss this for a
moment. Before the OST came into effect, <b>Nuclear weapons tests have actually been conducted in space</b>. And the results were very concerning.</p><p>The most well known of these is the US <b>Starfish Prime test</b> of 1962, part of <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime" target="_blank">Operation Fishbowl</a></i>, where <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime" target="_blank">a 1.4 megaton nuclear bomb</a> launched by a Thor rocket was detonated in Space at 400 km altitude. But there were also three smaller, earlier, low yield US tests in 1958 as part of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Argus#cite_note-15" target="_blank"><i>Operation Argus</i></a>.</p><p><b>Starfish Prime</b> surpassed all expectations, leading to a halt in this kind of testing. Detonated at <b>400 km altitude</b> over Johnston atoll, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse" target="_blank">Electro-Magnetic Pulse</a> (<b>EMP</b>) created by the nuclear detonation actually inflicted damage at ground level on Hawaii, 1450 km away, where it knocked out some streetlights and parts of the telephony network.</p><p>(Note that in our modern world, where lots of electronics work based on microprocessors which are very vulnerable to EMP, we are much more vulnerable to such effects than the world was in 1962). <br /></p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0jLtrb7Nt1gdz6kCPUxbeMI6c-vMYTb18j9_C2nSLBhSfTzvkgpfntc66vfPGGEnAIrQTjN-dQQ76wUkyfz19rjv6ClW51rfe6d-8RLk6J0BkN8rfAxuWgz2JHpExYhXTW3dRU-kNQig_AGiKh45uqkynXhqL9uKVNhpMwplZJy6Z5EB722KT/s446/Starfish5.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="446" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0jLtrb7Nt1gdz6kCPUxbeMI6c-vMYTb18j9_C2nSLBhSfTzvkgpfntc66vfPGGEnAIrQTjN-dQQ76wUkyfz19rjv6ClW51rfe6d-8RLk6J0BkN8rfAxuWgz2JHpExYhXTW3dRU-kNQig_AGiKh45uqkynXhqL9uKVNhpMwplZJy6Z5EB722KT/w640-h626/Starfish5.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>1962 Starfish Prime detonation flash as seen from Honolulu (image; Wikimedia)</i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i> </i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i> </i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpke0MYKoFvqhLgOWsVx70PEVA_VmM3X1l5cIufkLp1_EktpVeB8UsxniAkzsfUMIll3_yyUucAJCEe95jWG9wjWjVNjlp-jSNeaaSTAy0I8WaIBrtM2-_9EELMlAREVTYkchpS_V5xqxk59gaIyM-QIamef6ptH1nUaw7RDrTMc_gn4vtUn_u/s460/Operation_Dominic_Starfish-Prime_nuclear_test_from_plane.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="451" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpke0MYKoFvqhLgOWsVx70PEVA_VmM3X1l5cIufkLp1_EktpVeB8UsxniAkzsfUMIll3_yyUucAJCEe95jWG9wjWjVNjlp-jSNeaaSTAy0I8WaIBrtM2-_9EELMlAREVTYkchpS_V5xqxk59gaIyM-QIamef6ptH1nUaw7RDrTMc_gn4vtUn_u/w628-h640/Operation_Dominic_Starfish-Prime_nuclear_test_from_plane.jpg" width="628" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>ionospheric glow caused by charged particles from the 1962 Starfish Prime detonation (image: Wikimedia)</i></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>In addition, <b>charged particles</b> generated by the detonation and carried along the Earth's magnetic field <b>damaged several satellites</b>. </p><p>Of the 25 satellites in earth orbit on that date (this was the early space age), <b>nine were damaged</b> and eventually failed early as a result of this test. It concerned seven US satellites, one UK satellite, and one Russian satellite.</p><p>The damage is done by beta particles and electrons generated by the detonation, which spread through the earths magnetic field and ionosphere (which includes a considerable part of Low Earth Orbit), and damage electronic components in satellites. Some of these particles can linger on in the ionosphere for quite a long time (months).</p><p>In addition, the charged particles released into the ionosphere by the test generated Aurora-like effects on low latitudes, generating conditions that speed up the orbital decay of satellites.</p><p>In other words: using a nuclear bomb as an ASAT weapon in space, is not a very sensible approach. I would be surprised if Russia would use such a weapon, as its side-effects potentially could criple its own space assets too.</p><p>[<i>note added 18 Feb 2024:</i>] And it might actually do less harm to western military satellites (the ones Russia would want to target) than to civilian satellites, as several critical military space platforms have actually been hardened against EMP.<br /></p><p><i>update 18 Feb 2024: </i><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/16/politics/russia-nuclear-space-weapon-intelligence/index.html" target="_blank">CNN has published a story</a> that is getting some traction, where it appears to be claimed that the 'weapon' in question <b>is</b> in fact an EMP device. </p><p>But it is again based on anonymous sources: and anonymous sources so far have been contradictory in this, and there could be political agendas behind such 'anonymous' statements. Only a few years ago, a group of hawks in US politics were trying to push the alarmistic story that North Korea was developing (and even would already have tested, a claim which is certainly bogus) space-based EMP weapons (a dark interpretation of North Korea's KMS satellites). Their agenda was that they were advocating for a preemptive strike on North Korea.<br /></p><p><i> </i></p><p><i>(note: added a few sentences on the 1980'ies Soviet space-based
laser weapon Polyus/Skif and the Ekipazh concept a few hours after the
initial version of this post appeared).</i></p><p><i> </i><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-60579173265310405412024-02-14T19:02:00.007+01:002024-02-14T19:05:58.360+01:00USSF-124, launching the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg27nYFALpNVYffNf8KsfbvxZLV2XcRmIii_mOgqJpJx96ZUe8PXXjFMUuF28JYLq-NXuy1_Rh1GrdonA1KcrqeE3ueZlvsbc4WA6-TlFkKySzhEZHL-cGEQwMQ-jIJxmzxEHgP5dPK6jtBMwpVSsxwCVtxI-J86-Y30SjAb5tBbP2bUfvJMWZy/s1673/USSF124_SDA_14feb2024_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="1673" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg27nYFALpNVYffNf8KsfbvxZLV2XcRmIii_mOgqJpJx96ZUe8PXXjFMUuF28JYLq-NXuy1_Rh1GrdonA1KcrqeE3ueZlvsbc4WA6-TlFkKySzhEZHL-cGEQwMQ-jIJxmzxEHgP5dPK6jtBMwpVSsxwCVtxI-J86-Y30SjAb5tBbP2bUfvJMWZy/w640-h326/USSF124_SDA_14feb2024_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>If all goes well, SpaceX will launch <b>USSF-124</b> for the US Space Force on 14 February 2024, using a Falcon 9 rocket launching from Cape Canaveral launch pad 40. The launch window opens at 22:30 UTC and runs untill 3:00 UTC.</p><p>USSF-124 launches two classified payloads, one built by Northrop-Grumman and the other by L3 Harris, for the Missile Defense Agency. The two satellites are part of their <b>Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor</b> (<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3676902/mda-sda-announce-upcoming-launch-of-the-hypersonic-and-ballistic-tracking-space/" target="_blank">HBTSS</a>). </p><p>In addition, the final four of SDA's<b> SDA Tranche 0</b> satellites are part of this launch too.</p><p>The Navigational Warnings related to this launch (see map above) point to launch into a <b>~38.5 degree inclined</b> Low Earth Orbit. The orbital altitude will likely be around 600 km.</p><p>The upper stage of the Falcon 9 will deorbit after 1.5 revolutions, over the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, some 2 hours and 20 minutes after launch.</p><p>The <a href="https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings" target="_blank">Navigational Warnings</a> are plotted in the map in top of this post. These are the Navigational Warning texts:<br /><br /><span style="font-family: courier;">090947Z FEB 24<br />NAVAREA IV 146/24(11,26).<br />WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.<br />FLORIDA.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING <br /> 142230Z TO 150300Z FEB, ALTERNATE<br /> 2230Z TO 0230Z DAILY 15 THRU 20 FEB<br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br /> A. 28-38.28N 080-37.18W, 28-45.00N 080-18.00W,<br /> 28-43.00N 080-09.00W, 28-36.00N 080-07.00W,<br /> 28-28.00N 080-20.00W, 28-27.11N 080-31.61W.<br /> B. 29-58.00N 077-39.00W, 30-42.00N 076-26.00W,<br /> 31-00.00N 075-43.00W, 30-34.00N 075-28.00W,<br /> 30-21.00N 075-53.00W, 29-53.00N 077-35.00W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 210330Z FEB 24.//<br /><br /><br />081626Z FEB 24<br />HYDROPAC 483/24(61).<br />INDIAN OCEAN.<br />FRENCH SOUTHERN AND ANTARCTIC LANDS.<br />DNC 02, DNC 03.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS<br /> 0056Z TO 0519Z DAILY 15 THRU 21 FEB<br /> IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 36-40.00S 078-41.00E, 34-50.00S 079-51.00E,<br /> 26-27.00S 060-32.00E, 28-17.00S 059-28.00E.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 210619Z FEB 24.</span><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-65455022826552025102024-02-13T22:13:00.009+01:002024-02-13T22:23:00.754+01:00Imaging the X-37B robotic spaceplane mission OTV 7<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6kR4hsMc7QLNGcIjXqsXRT3dXVhHTsBr1C8763JSht5-tt6uEg7VWwhJ_lu3Q6ragtOeqzSxuSs26PhEI8rXLjNM648my-dcVUNfUrn7umWU-Rwc7p7U45hyg-Wp7SJfkdSdbCVB6Dw1XGFousIDWO3Kl9bLT5QhF-IfBmV-Ex9mNlAVgOvLI/s1700/OTV7_10sec_Bin1_12Feb2024_190614.719UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="1700" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6kR4hsMc7QLNGcIjXqsXRT3dXVhHTsBr1C8763JSht5-tt6uEg7VWwhJ_lu3Q6ragtOeqzSxuSs26PhEI8rXLjNM648my-dcVUNfUrn7umWU-Rwc7p7U45hyg-Wp7SJfkdSdbCVB6Dw1XGFousIDWO3Kl9bLT5QhF-IfBmV-Ex9mNlAVgOvLI/w640-h432/OTV7_10sec_Bin1_12Feb2024_190614.719UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>OTV 7 imaged from Leiden at 12 Feb 2024. Click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>In <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2024/02/x-37b-otv-7-has-been-found-in-heo.html" target="_blank">my previous post</a>, I wrote about the first on-orbit detections, by Tomi Simola, of the US Space Force's <b>X-37B space plane</b> mission <b>OTV 7</b>, and how it is in an orbit that is certainly unusual for a space plane.</p><p>Yesterday (February 12, 2024) I finally had a clear sky, and an almost near-zenith pass of OTV 7 in the early evening just after twilight. <b>So I could finally image it too</b>. </p><p>Using the ZWO ASI 6200MM PRO with a 1.2/85 mm lens, OTV 7 showed up well in the imagery, as a reasonably bright object that was not difficult to detect. Above is one of the images, a 10 second exposure near 19:06 UTC while OTV 7 was over Europe at ~6700 km altitude, descending towards perigee.</p><p>The orbit is now a bit better constrained, and about 38600 x 300 km at 59.15 degree inclination. Perigee is currently over the equatorial region. The image below shows the orbit, and the orbital position of OTV 7 around the time I imaged it:</p><p><br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAp2FOZ3dL1dq9o8xc93Z-OuHTp1SA-a_cKzW_bAdg_uyi2NwpK-QFjdgKPJL_ReTayhhTTWDFfXwsjSYl1pjDtZt5n1TpLjy6CsSEsTM28Whz94NHXMKtQ-_69R36XDTxTsLRBl1bMjOYgEfEK1yrGG5MiWoGmlmmYDo-k0PwdlyUICeKLOji/s1221/OTV7_Feb2024_orb_3D_equatorial.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="825" data-original-width="1221" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAp2FOZ3dL1dq9o8xc93Z-OuHTp1SA-a_cKzW_bAdg_uyi2NwpK-QFjdgKPJL_ReTayhhTTWDFfXwsjSYl1pjDtZt5n1TpLjy6CsSEsTM28Whz94NHXMKtQ-_69R36XDTxTsLRBl1bMjOYgEfEK1yrGG5MiWoGmlmmYDo-k0PwdlyUICeKLOji/w640-h432/OTV7_Feb2024_orb_3D_equatorial.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click image to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>OTV 7 was several minutes early on one day old elements, meaning <b>it appears to be actively manoeuvering</b>. This fits an X-37B, the previous OTV missions (all to LEO) were also frequently manoeuvering. </p><p>It is possible that the spacecraft is using a continuous thrust ion engine.</p><p>In the current Highly Elliptical Orbit (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highly_elliptical_orbit" target="_blank">HEO</a>), the orbital velocity at perigee is close to 10.2 km/s, which is 2.4 km/s more than in a Low Earth Orbit (previous X-37B missions all went to Low Earth Orbit). To eventually land the spaceplane, the orbit likely will be circularized first, by lowering apogee drastically, perhaps with the help of aerobraking in perigee, before doing a deorbit and landing.</p><p>This is my current orbital fit, which is still up for improvement, based on observations by Tomi Simola, Eelke Visser, Scott Tilley and me:<br /><br /><span style="font-family: courier;">OTV 7<br />1 58666U 23210A 24044.12782730 0.00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 05<br />2 58666 59.1696 4.0545 7416334 167.8228 233.0020 2.09261279 07</span><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-4821317533385869372024-02-10T17:20:00.020+01:002024-02-10T18:27:20.495+01:00X-37B OTV 7 has been found in HEO!<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvRhtIadHu2rEbMBXKCuerLjB1fWKUXLWW6tH2dzavjrJC4kP4I_Rl8kET0JwyfMa6H8R5Hr2H0rPFTx0y_-3yNOi5fwB5_NUrpkyl-zAE5zBQzGLQXUF6a4F53GyKbcORciOh_6GBqXULBh4wFBGYfWI6bM1yRVsihWYIvc92Xq-rUG0xA-2z/s924/OTV7_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="924" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvRhtIadHu2rEbMBXKCuerLjB1fWKUXLWW6tH2dzavjrJC4kP4I_Rl8kET0JwyfMa6H8R5Hr2H0rPFTx0y_-3yNOi5fwB5_NUrpkyl-zAE5zBQzGLQXUF6a4F53GyKbcORciOh_6GBqXULBh4wFBGYfWI6bM1yRVsihWYIvc92Xq-rUG0xA-2z/w640-h482/OTV7_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>OTV 7 discovery image by Tomi Simola, Finland ((c) Tomi Simola, used with permission)<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>On 29 December 2023 at 1:17 UTC, after several delays, SpaceX launched a Falcon Heavy for the US Space Force with <b>OTV 7</b>, the seventh <b>X-37B Spaceplane</b> mission. <b>Now its payload has been found!</b><br /></p><p>OTV 7 was the subject of much speculation. The use of a Falcon Heavy, and the locations and time windows of related rocket stage splash-down and reentry zones, as well as statements by the US Space Force, indicated it might go into a different, higher altitude orbit than the previous six missions. <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/12/navigational-warnings-for-ussf-52-x-37b.html" target="_blank">On this blog, I speculated</a> about a ~74-degree inclined <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highly_elliptical_orbit" target="_blank">Highly Elliptical Orbit</a> (HEO).</p><p>Thanks to the dedicated efforts of <b>Tomi Simola</b> from Finland, <b>OTV 7 has been found on-orbit </b>this week. It is indeed in a HEO orbit, but inclined by <b>59.1 degrees</b>, not 74 degrees.<br /></p><p>Tomi performed a dedicated plane scan using a fixed staring camera. On the night of <b>7-8 February</b>, he finally nabbed the elusive payload (see the discovery image above), while it was at ~3400 km altitude descending towards perigee. He used a WATEC 902H2 Ultimate camera with a 1.2/50 mm lens and 10 seconds integration.<br /></p><p>Subsequent observations show that OTV-7 is in a <b>38840 x 323 km, 59.1 degree inclined Highly Elliptical Orbit</b>. Perigee is just North of the equatorial region (currently clearly North of it near latitude 30 N, but short after launch it was at a lower latitude near 15 N).</p><p>(a <i>Highly Elliptical Orbit</i> (HEO) is an orbit with a low perigee - generally at a few hundred km altitude - and distant apogee, at 35 000 km altitude or more. As a result, the shape of the orbit is highly elliptical (highly elongated). An object in HEO typically makes two orbital revolutions a day. Due to the shape of its orbit, it spents most of its time in the higher parts of the orbit and a relatively small amount of time near perigee. When apogee is over high latitudes, as is usually the case for these orbits, this allows a long dwell-time over these latitudes with view of a very large area (a full hemisphere when in apogee). HEO orbits are hence the polar equivalents of a GeoSynchronous Orbit (GEO) and often used for communications relay or long-term monitoring of areas. They are a favoured orbit for Communications, SIGINT and Infra-Red missile launch monitoring. The OTV 7 HEO is unusual in that perigee is not over the southern hemisphere).<br /></p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy8XmXRs97kDJh6K0nfJeNgcP7AEOWYc_Mjd32v3Sgan5ayt4QfmsHsW2T_FkU9tR7u2QsKD1BmZBQYqd8p6vjpQzC0LdDOG_utZDM7hIuI3BAToX-P3GiPpfSAx11otRQOT6jnnCPzYI8p4xGIe1RzyVm_IdRbQSxVmdcJnUffBtlbhhOGjHx/s1200/OTV7_Feb2024_orb_3D_equatorial.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1200" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy8XmXRs97kDJh6K0nfJeNgcP7AEOWYc_Mjd32v3Sgan5ayt4QfmsHsW2T_FkU9tR7u2QsKD1BmZBQYqd8p6vjpQzC0LdDOG_utZDM7hIuI3BAToX-P3GiPpfSAx11otRQOT6jnnCPzYI8p4xGIe1RzyVm_IdRbQSxVmdcJnUffBtlbhhOGjHx/w640-h440/OTV7_Feb2024_orb_3D_equatorial.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>orbit of X-37B OTV-7 as of 10 Feb 2024. Click to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>The observed orbital plane of the object matches well with a launch from Cape Canaveral on 29 December 1:07 UTC. Together with the fact that the orbit is quite unusual for a HEO object with it's Northern hemishere perigee location, an identification with OTV 7 is very likely.<br /></p><p>Propagating the orbit backwards, the suggestion is that, after initial launch into a 51.5 degree inclined low coasting orbit, it was pushed into HEO by a manoeuvre when crossing the descending node, about half a revolution after launch. It subsequently probably manoeuvered a couple of times, adjusting apogee and perhaps also inclination. </p><p>The upper stage probably did a second manoeuvre after payload separation, changing its inclination to 74 degrees as suggested by the shape, orientation and location of the deorbit area from the Navigational Warnings related to the launch.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzIuDTrAyBUZ3-I3PZTuzVOsbgdJDHk_lTTaHtxXWFhpoKlpTKEHEkANHO6yGk0UXpNACoWMLaNPeT_sjuCfdqcgAhyyXSymi10tn_29Guy4mUCqdg8nBHKebwnmuiaBX4Gpq5UJO1_KAN-0KA17Qkms9qgwOkRQtIwMFaHG3F_rq-d5qPLfjV/s1696/OTV7_X37B_HEO_NEWORBIT_FEB2024_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="869" data-original-width="1696" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzIuDTrAyBUZ3-I3PZTuzVOsbgdJDHk_lTTaHtxXWFhpoKlpTKEHEkANHO6yGk0UXpNACoWMLaNPeT_sjuCfdqcgAhyyXSymi10tn_29Guy4mUCqdg8nBHKebwnmuiaBX4Gpq5UJO1_KAN-0KA17Qkms9qgwOkRQtIwMFaHG3F_rq-d5qPLfjV/w640-h328/OTV7_X37B_HEO_NEWORBIT_FEB2024_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>The map above plots the <i>current</i> orbit of OTV 7 propagated back to the day of launch, as well as the estimated initial low coasting orbit.</p><p>As can be seen, the OTV 7 orbit after one revolution actually does cross over the deorbit area from the Navigational Warnings: but in an oblique way that does not seem to match the orientation of the area. This is why I believe that the upper stage after payload separation was boosted into a higher inclined orbit. Perhaps as a collision avoidance manoeuvre (but the implied magnitude of the inclination change, 15 degrees, is rather large), perhaps - but that is pure speculation - it might have delivered a second payload to a higher inclination.</p><p>Because their orbital inclinations are about half a degree apart, I did look into a possible relation with another odd object launched into an odd orbit recently: USA 310. Their orbits are quite dissimilar though: USA 310 is in a circular MEO orbit inclined by 58.5 degrees, not a HEO orbit. I do note that their orbital planes, even though quite dissimilar, are 90 degrees apart. But most likely, that is coincidence.</p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEzflG-s5TvV0GcmdFcIS_jb_EHMLxvpy7dT2XL51-1SIpFc7aFC49pg0fB939bmaS7w8aapew1LF0EA0NQRGd03WqWlsaxwQSwTYttZ_flZamI8XuoTfB-4PkCn4wpLefqMBuIt7ucDDWNovdATE475wat1n9PlTZ3qU4voge5lU5nFFEMNPv/s861/OTV7_vs_USA310.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="861" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEzflG-s5TvV0GcmdFcIS_jb_EHMLxvpy7dT2XL51-1SIpFc7aFC49pg0fB939bmaS7w8aapew1LF0EA0NQRGd03WqWlsaxwQSwTYttZ_flZamI8XuoTfB-4PkCn4wpLefqMBuIt7ucDDWNovdATE475wat1n9PlTZ3qU4voge5lU5nFFEMNPv/w640-h612/OTV7_vs_USA310.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">click to enlarge<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>It will be interesting to follow OTV 7, and see whether it changes orbital altitude as often as the missions to LEO did (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/07/x-37b-fact-and-fiction.html" target="_blank">this post from a few years ago</a>).</p><p>A re-usable space-plane in HEO: who had that in the cards for 2024....?!<br /> <br />Let's see if they can get it back at some point.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-74732016219802657702024-02-07T15:55:00.001+01:002024-02-07T23:53:06.458+01:00An upcoming Russian SSO launch from Plesetsk<p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHeZt082z1qj8mO6e5dVh63UB-dyvkoho3fkhXy1WA2BNMhvni9QPUX6JSA-ru_XBvq58Br13tPB7zZR35imlLBUA1krwL7H1gdNDK1iPpUeM-C7UqL-rA1d4wU2zvnI8LMmN_9Cs8w1j-t1iqoChyPxxqvSJ34c4VnHSgghrByso3yuiUjhyphenhyphen/s1569/Plesetsk_9Feb2024_BarsM_III_anot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1155" data-original-width="1569" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHeZt082z1qj8mO6e5dVh63UB-dyvkoho3fkhXy1WA2BNMhvni9QPUX6JSA-ru_XBvq58Br13tPB7zZR35imlLBUA1krwL7H1gdNDK1iPpUeM-C7UqL-rA1d4wU2zvnI8LMmN_9Cs8w1j-t1iqoChyPxxqvSJ34c4VnHSgghrByso3yuiUjhyphenhyphen/w640-h472/Plesetsk_9Feb2024_BarsM_III_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p>Navigational Warnings have appeared pointing to an <b>upcoming Soyuz launch from Plesetsk</b> between February 9 and 13.</p><p>The direction of the launch suggests a ~97.4-degree inclined Sun-Synchronous Polar Orbit. If I would guess at the payload, it likely is either a <a href="https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/bars-m.htm" target="_blank">BARS-M</a> or a <a href="https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/emka.htm" target="_blank">EO-MKA</a> optical reconnaissance satellite, based on the orbital inclination aimed for.<br /></p><p>While I initially interpreted this launch as a possible BARS-M launch, the lack of a deorbit area for a 3rd stage might suggest an EO-MKA instead (the EO-MKA's are prototypes of a small optical imaging satellite). Or maybe it is something new altogether.<br /></p><p>Here are the <a href="https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings" target="_blank">Navigational Warnings</a>:</p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">051945Z FEB 24<br />HYDROARC 10/24(42).<br />BARENTS SEA.<br />RUSSIA.<br />DNC 22.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING <br /> 0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB <br /> IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 70-13.00N 033-11.00E, 70-18.00N 033-49.00E,<br /> 70-12.00N 034-11.00E, 69-54.00N 034-46.00E,<br /> 69-33.00N 034-47.00E, 69-25.00N 034-15.00E,<br /> 69-35.00N 033-37.00E, 69-53.00N 033-05.00E.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.<br /><br /><br />052111Z FEB 24<br />HYDROARC 12/24(42,43).<br />BARENTS SEA.<br />SVALBARD.<br />DNC 22.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING<br /> 0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB<br /> IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 75-59.00N 021-26.00E, 75-50.00N 022-05.00E,<br /> 75-35.00N 022-47.00E, 75-21.00N 022-52.00E,<br /> 75-15.00N 022-13.00E, 75-24.00N 021-29.00E,<br /> 75-36.00N 020-51.00E, 75-53.00N 020-43.00E.<br />2. CANCEL HYDROARC 11/24.<br />3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.</span><br /><br /></p><p>The map in top of this post shows the two areas plotted: one is just north of Murmansk, the other close to Svalbard. I have not been able to find a matching area for the upper stage deorbit.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-39792480805750751732024-01-29T12:29:00.008+01:002024-02-21T12:23:38.848+01:00An upcoming British Royal Navy Trident SLBM test in the Atlantic [UPDATED]<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn5qjTKem4P_fF3g8dsvvL52X-zOLZ1ab_8NM2c2PcIyZgsC99AAG7FI-X-KpzwEVlIyei1C_8UEPmOMEogKQeZzRtf_Z8oIVujZf0yvvI0bEg1fTQ_vgjfoVuKE2uv8W_iR9XxceeaUc1HBpuLsBRaw2FQA-xM5ewpuolRWD_hqkiS6Ew0A5Z/s1675/UK_trident_30jan2024_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1675" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn5qjTKem4P_fF3g8dsvvL52X-zOLZ1ab_8NM2c2PcIyZgsC99AAG7FI-X-KpzwEVlIyei1C_8UEPmOMEogKQeZzRtf_Z8oIVujZf0yvvI0bEg1fTQ_vgjfoVuKE2uv8W_iR9XxceeaUc1HBpuLsBRaw2FQA-xM5ewpuolRWD_hqkiS6Ew0A5Z/w640-h432/UK_trident_30jan2024_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>Over the past month, there was much anticipation for a (almost certainly) British Royal Navy <b>Trident-II D5 SLBM test</b> in the Atlantic. The arrival of the British nuclear ballistic missile armed submarine <b>HMS Vanguard</b> and several support ships at Port Canaveral <a href="https://x.com/M51_4ever/status/1748744686959768029?s=20" target="_blank">in the past weeks</a> suggested as much. Port Canaveral is the home base for such Trident SLBM tests.</p><p>And now the corresponding Navigational Warnings have appeared, for the period January 30 - Feb 4.</p><pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap=""><span style="font-family: courier;">290215Z JAN 24
NAVAREA IV 89/24(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 302100 TO 040356 FEB
IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 29-00.00N 079-56.00W, 29-05.00N 079-35.00W,
29-00.00N 079-07.00W, 28-38.00N 079-06.00W,
28-36.00N 079-33.00W, 28-42.00N 079-52.00W.
B. 28-28.00N 076-03.00W, 28-19.00N 075-04.00W,
28-06.00N 075-07.00W, 28-16.00N 076-01.00W.
C. 27-03.00N 069-40.00W, 27-20.00N 069-37.00W,
26-58.00N 068-02.00W, 26-43.00N 068-05.00W.
D. 19-42.00N 050-06.00W, 20-19.00N 049-55.00W,
19-02.00N 046-24.00W, 18-23.00N 046-46.00W.
E. 08-32.00N 031-06.00W, 08-39.00N 031-01.00W,
08-03.00N 028-55.00W, 06-43.00N 027-40.00W,
05-49.00N 028-16.00W, 05-59.00N 028-34.00W,
05-25.00N 028-53.00W, 06-25.00N 029-17.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 88/24
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 040456Z FEB 24.</span>
</pre><p>I have depicted the five hazard zones from this Navigational Warning (also issued as HYDROLANT 214/24, and a re-issue of an earlier warning that had a typo in the coordinates of Area A) in the map in top of this post. Area A is the launch area. Areas B, C and D are the splash-down zones of the first, second and third stages. Area E is the RV target area.<br /></p><p>The launch is from one of two standard test firing areas, some 80-90 km in front of the coast of Florida (see also <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/10/a-reanalysis-of-trident-slbm-test-of-10.html" target="_blank">this earlier post</a>). The launch will be visible from Florida, so from previous experience <b>I expect it to generate a number of 'UFO' reports</b> from eyewitnesses who don't know what they are seeing.<br /></p><p>The first thing of note is that <b>the range of this test</b>, at approximately 5900 km, <b>is rather short</b> compared to other Trident tests.<br /></p><p>That can be seen in the map below, which depicts the RV target area of this test along with the target areas of earlier Trident-II D5 tests fired from the same test launch area 1. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB-k0wJRq3YElpL7ok_rxXqE-zRHkA8udURtDcm2MEmzH51U8rWWWDLlU0-A5Fl3_8OQQ4LxJjWy1QpcuyI9Wmh7f7vuHLUaaKqx4IwdwPdTFVrDwF9_O6C7Dxf1Y1J9uayieHwdw-Wz3sfelCEfx9SMQLFKRvq8EpQKKJmQRX1aTFulTGhW1o/s1669/Area1_launch_impact_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1128" data-original-width="1669" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB-k0wJRq3YElpL7ok_rxXqE-zRHkA8udURtDcm2MEmzH51U8rWWWDLlU0-A5Fl3_8OQQ4LxJjWy1QpcuyI9Wmh7f7vuHLUaaKqx4IwdwPdTFVrDwF9_O6C7Dxf1Y1J9uayieHwdw-Wz3sfelCEfx9SMQLFKRvq8EpQKKJmQRX1aTFulTGhW1o/w640-h432/Area1_launch_impact_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Whereas the other RV target areas are at latitudes 9 S to 18 S, the
target area for this test is much more north, near latitude 7 N, i.e. a
range some 3000-5000 km short of earlier tests. It is effectively about
<b>half the range</b> of a typical Trident test.</p><p><b>HMS Vanguard</b> (S28) has recently come out of a long <a href="https://www.navylookout.com/hms-vanguard-finally-sails-from-devonport-after-refit-lasting-more-than-7-years/" target="_blank">7.5 years maintenance overhaul and refuel period</a>, and this test likely is part of its recertification as an operational SLBM submarine. The Royal British Navy has four <a href="https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/organisation/units-and-squadrons/ballistic-submarines/hms-vanguard" target="_blank">Vanguard-class</a> submarines in active service. Each of them carries 16 Trident-II D5 missiles.<br /></p><p>In June 2016, the previous Royal British Navy Trident missile test, a Trident test-fired from <i>HMS Vengeance</i>, went awry when the missile veered into the wrong direction (towards Florida) after launch: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/23/how-did-the-trident-test-fail-and-what-did-theresa-may-know" target="_blank">according to newspaper The Guardian</a> because if was given wrong trajectory information. It had to be destroyed in flight. That test targetted a target area just east-southeast of Ascension Island. I guess some nervous officials will watch the upcoming launch carefully with their finger on the destruct button.<br /><br /><b>UPDATE 21 Feb 2024:</b></p><p>The missile test <b>failed</b>, according to UK Media (.e.g. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68355395" target="_blank">BBC here</a> and <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26070479/trident-nuke-sub-missile-launch-fails/" target="_blank">The Sun here</a>). It appears that the first stage did not ignite after missile ejection from the submarine. As a result, the missile plunged back into sea close to the submarine. The test was reportedly witnessed by the UK Defense Secretary Shapps and the Commander of the Royal Navy, so I guess there was a lot of Stiff Upper Lip that day, with some "<i>Ow well, that's unfortunate Old Boy</i>...".<br />A previous UK Royal Navy test launch, in 2016, failed as well (see discussion above in blogpost).<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-91016551359396553442024-01-04T21:58:00.003+01:002024-01-04T21:59:39.097+01:002023 at a glance<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzAnFITrtH0dwzyHKK9NArPsTXF9Pju-oKdK72kER8HIRAhnGvQJBVzYtS2KUgfCRyGNgZ0aTbevAO7Zu1F-vAXCEvKqFMcuqQACPawaiYfl1aqjRsg_Vpn0n0PO-JZjY9MYneONz2W_6F1sYvUWIhXHSFL4EIy-w73DSsZ7CYajv9__EwOZQ0/s1700/Starmap_satpositions_2023_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="978" data-original-width="1700" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzAnFITrtH0dwzyHKK9NArPsTXF9Pju-oKdK72kER8HIRAhnGvQJBVzYtS2KUgfCRyGNgZ0aTbevAO7Zu1F-vAXCEvKqFMcuqQACPawaiYfl1aqjRsg_Vpn0n0PO-JZjY9MYneONz2W_6F1sYvUWIhXHSFL4EIy-w73DSsZ7CYajv9__EwOZQ0/w640-h368/Starmap_satpositions_2023_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>First of all, <b>a Happy, Healthy and Clear 2024 to all the readers of this blog!</b> <br /></p><p>The past year has been an active and productive year. I did optical observations on <b>50 nights</b>, gathering <b>14069 astrometric positions</b> on <b>108 objects</b>, of which <b>73</b> were <b>classified</b> objects.</p><p>2081 of these astrometric positions were obtained (on both classified and unclassified objects) as part of my regular observational activities. </p><p>In addition to these, 6794 astrometric positions were obtained on the SWARM A, B and C satellites, as part of camera and timing accuracy calibrations (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/05/calibrating-tracking-astrometry.html" target="_blank">this earlier post</a>). And 5194 astrometric and photometric datapoints were gathered on BlueWalker 3, which - together with data from 2022 - are part of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06672-7" target="_blank">this study published in Nature</a>.</p><p>The image in top of this post, shows <b>all 14069 datapoints gathered in 2023 plotted on a star map</b>. Red crosses are from my regular observing activities; blue crosses are data on BlueWalker 3; and green crosses are data on the SWARM satellites. The diagram below shows the distribution of observing nights over the year:</p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFAeujhlbXOSyqIKYwfxjOcIbDkDMGVfAK5M4f-P7k6_JXJuEBPOlbEBeZ6OCsCfWwGDG7mP0rA-kI75LMZz61f7FizsRqrzWWD-iMVAVg6wlPVGFwhL-S34P4dC0gwLkpjrUxg3QD0Cwy47o61yXl5ExB_ukqV8HuHJFK7PG8PqAm1zseSQcI/s582/Nnights_month_2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="582" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFAeujhlbXOSyqIKYwfxjOcIbDkDMGVfAK5M4f-P7k6_JXJuEBPOlbEBeZ6OCsCfWwGDG7mP0rA-kI75LMZz61f7FizsRqrzWWD-iMVAVg6wlPVGFwhL-S34P4dC0gwLkpjrUxg3QD0Cwy47o61yXl5ExB_ukqV8HuHJFK7PG8PqAm1zseSQcI/w640-h440/Nnights_month_2023.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>The past year had <b>several personal and observational highlight</b>s. These include:</p><p>1. My Lecturer position at the Delft Technical University Faculty of Aerospace Engineering became a permanent position</p><p>2. I was co-author to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06672-7" target="_blank">this study published in Nature</a>, on the high brightness of BlueWalker 3</p><p>3. Observing the RNLAF cubesats BRIK-II, HUYGENS and BIRELAND (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/04/optically-observing-rnlafs-6u-cubesats.html" target="_blank">this post</a>)</p><p>4. Being filmed for a very nice 40-minute <a href="https://npo.nl/start/serie/focus/seizoen-4/focus-special/afspelen" target="_blank">documentary by the Dutch TV program FOCUS</a> about 'War in Space', for which we filmed at the RNLAF headquarters and my home.</p><p>5. Being filmed, as one of three specialists, for this very nice short informative video by the 'University of the Netherlands' on 'War in Space', part of an informative web-series called 'Voorkennis' ('foreknowledge'):</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yt4reICl75U?si=FTPW5DTPnu6tbqW8" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><br /><br /></p><p>6. Recovering several high altitude objects not seen for a while by our network, including USA 310, PAN and several other GEO and HEO objects.</p><p>7. Forecasting the reentries of the North Korean satellites Kwangmyŏngsŏng (KMS) 3-2 and 4</p><p>8. Forecasting the reentry of the TU Delft cubesat Delfi-C3.</p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UMY0riGcYkDIPIxPFhkwLxSS_HwipmlpW50oMTxCunvA4ccGJigXISQxnjCx8m2MeCQjld1O43GVqacylldOVquoyLculbQM1_DwI_kR7luQluiU5VPnR7gcPawAWwRTa4gLHF2gSsJsu-jgIB8UMzZH5_uD5L9yygebZvVAel_Ci4Z3lkDh/s1920/NTR_Focus_Special_22mei2023_14.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UMY0riGcYkDIPIxPFhkwLxSS_HwipmlpW50oMTxCunvA4ccGJigXISQxnjCx8m2MeCQjld1O43GVqacylldOVquoyLculbQM1_DwI_kR7luQluiU5VPnR7gcPawAWwRTa4gLHF2gSsJsu-jgIB8UMzZH5_uD5L9yygebZvVAel_Ci4Z3lkDh/w640-h360/NTR_Focus_Special_22mei2023_14.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>screenshot from the NTR FOCUS tv documentary (me at left, Major Wijnja at right)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>Apart from the already mentioned <i>Nature</i> paper, I also published <a href="https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/neosst2/paper/59/NEOSST2-paper59.pdf" target="_blank">this Conference Contribution</a> on the work of our network of Independent Satellite Observers, the result of partin g in the 2nds NEO and Debris Conference in Darmstadt in January. <br /></p><p>I have been in the media several times on topics including Starlink and the war in Ukraine, Starlink and the quick rise of the number of objects in orbit, space debris in general, the reentry of two North Korean satellites, and the Launcher One mishap, as well as a number of missile tests.</p><p>During the second part of the year, I had the opportunity to gather
data on MEO, HEO and GEO objects while testing a prototype tracking
camera that in 2024 will be placed on the roof of the TU Delft Faculty
of Aerospace Engineering. The imagesbelow were obtained with this
camera.</p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji5mc2bnFUU9UzwTELtCkLwszLyrLEvMxDZsSmW4szaSvoShGN-nC2iecn4Jy6t60oVEKXIn-PSgSobREV6F7UebagcPoGyQg9AtDoZ3m1XLOIE8f4C8AQHZ6Bgx_JYc3Ytgem8cSUja-0-G7qEpU8L5QLWZge7VOLBlinm9b8StmVdLIxePlT/s1682/HUYGENS_2sec_Bin1_17.0C_gain200_2023-09-07_202947UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1682" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji5mc2bnFUU9UzwTELtCkLwszLyrLEvMxDZsSmW4szaSvoShGN-nC2iecn4Jy6t60oVEKXIn-PSgSobREV6F7UebagcPoGyQg9AtDoZ3m1XLOIE8f4C8AQHZ6Bgx_JYc3Ytgem8cSUja-0-G7qEpU8L5QLWZge7VOLBlinm9b8StmVdLIxePlT/w640-h378/HUYGENS_2sec_Bin1_17.0C_gain200_2023-09-07_202947UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>6U cubesat Huygens imaged on 7 Sept 2023. Click to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii_sw-MHv1SDr0Ujv2aHy5k6tJUrOfvhMd5A97p3edQRV9o1QYrJbOrqo4QTr3V6oElN_DF2qWIsFiIjMESvgL_6eC5-mCxkt7VDfUQAfUmyyPcd2tegD5ue6JhoY9Ruwj-FOP2qT4olsLFz11BR2LHZtnmh51MsL-8_AzPj2iPVW5qicA3sLK/s1500/PAN_moving_22aug_15sep2023_ASI6200MM_85mm.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1205" data-original-width="1500" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii_sw-MHv1SDr0Ujv2aHy5k6tJUrOfvhMd5A97p3edQRV9o1QYrJbOrqo4QTr3V6oElN_DF2qWIsFiIjMESvgL_6eC5-mCxkt7VDfUQAfUmyyPcd2tegD5ue6JhoY9Ruwj-FOP2qT4olsLFz11BR2LHZtnmh51MsL-8_AzPj2iPVW5qicA3sLK/w640-h514/PAN_moving_22aug_15sep2023_ASI6200MM_85mm.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>following the movements of PAN/NEMESIS-1. Click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBlVDiT8gGEF9my7ckDGg7R7HY-r6RMZfniMVCBn3TOYiAVw235CMm1iaX0l2uNj7xLT0eOH3wvYyvUrnXZcOZQQXumwxPd-gDBNt7GoyVtonC8I5_GS1QZLYZQV_T2GfoMRsK-7rVaSOFST5rPUIDmt6gXF_Qwgb3E5cOUB48mQTkS_NDQw8K/s1670/LUCH2_10sec_85mm_Bin1_20sept2023_200545.710UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1670" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBlVDiT8gGEF9my7ckDGg7R7HY-r6RMZfniMVCBn3TOYiAVw235CMm1iaX0l2uNj7xLT0eOH3wvYyvUrnXZcOZQQXumwxPd-gDBNt7GoyVtonC8I5_GS1QZLYZQV_T2GfoMRsK-7rVaSOFST5rPUIDmt6gXF_Qwgb3E5cOUB48mQTkS_NDQw8K/w640-h344/LUCH2_10sec_85mm_Bin1_20sept2023_200545.710UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Russian SIGINT satellite LUCH (OLYMP) 2. Click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-35711777787416371762023-12-08T12:38:00.004+01:002023-12-08T15:13:27.669+01:00A Missile Defense Test in the NE Pacific on December 11-16 (FTG-12?)<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ3e_DtShMEm9wyZwjDaOF5IcKi_fBDwEER-F7m5_05C5IVP2K3NWEpqiXPzDn3IBn1_EdKzADJHLxYa2oCpHe71UXq8hI337rQIG-0kRdbrsgvN0zgjmaTS9gHdARoSC3ccE88vrxuPn19O8sYiJAE8VzqI-I15_qGdiaZQq2pUPAZ6Ke1ZxJ/s1629/Hawaii_Calif_MDefense_11dec2023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1171" data-original-width="1629" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ3e_DtShMEm9wyZwjDaOF5IcKi_fBDwEER-F7m5_05C5IVP2K3NWEpqiXPzDn3IBn1_EdKzADJHLxYa2oCpHe71UXq8hI337rQIG-0kRdbrsgvN0zgjmaTS9gHdARoSC3ccE88vrxuPn19O8sYiJAE8VzqI-I15_qGdiaZQq2pUPAZ6Ke1ZxJ/w640-h460/Hawaii_Calif_MDefense_11dec2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table> <p></p><p>Two Navigational Warnings <a href="https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings" target="_blank">have appeared</a>, NAVAREA XII 841 and NAVAREA XII 845, that together point to <b>a Missile Defense test</b> with a MRBM/IRBM target missile fired <b>from NW of Hawaii towards California</b>, and intercept by a GBI fired from Vandenberg, California. </p><p>The window runs from December 11 to December 16 (2023). Here are the Navigational Warnings:</p><p> <span style="font-family: courier;">061011Z DEC 23<br />NAVAREA XII 841/23(19).<br />EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.<br />NORTH PACIFIC.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1430Z TO 1730Z DAILY<br /> 11 THRU 16 DEC IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br />A. 24-40.00N 164-32.00W, 24-52.00N 164-43.00W,<br /> 24-38.00N 165-07.00W, 24-26.00N 164-57.00W.<br />B. 27-13.00N 158-33.00W, 27-34.00N 158-49.00W,<br /> 27-07.00N 159-45.00W, 26-44.00N 159-30.00W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 161830Z DEC 23.//</span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;"><br /><br />070807Z DEC 23<br />NAVAREA XII 845/23(18,19).<br />EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.<br />CALIFORNIA.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 11 THRU 16 DEC:<br /> A. 1400Z TO 1805Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 35-01.00N 121-13.00W, 35-01.00N 120-29.00W, <br /> 34-45.00N 120-29W.00, 34-44.00N 121-13.00W.<br /> B. 1400Z TO 1805Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 34-35.00N 123-56.00W, 35-07.00N 123-56.00W, <br /> 35-08.00N 121-13.00W, 34-36.00N 121-13.00W.<br /> C. 1400Z TO 1753Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 34-28.00N 126-07.00W, 35-11.00N 126-09.00W,<br /> 35-12.00N 125-20.00W, 34-29.00N 125-18.00W.<br /> D. 1400Z TO 1846Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 35-08.00N 137-34.00W, 35-48.00N 128-26.00W,<br /> 33-43.00N 128-13.00W, 32-52.00N 136-37.00W.<br /> E. 1400Z TO 1900Z DAILY IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 32-59.00N 138-18.00W, 34-45.00N 138-38.00W,<br /> 35-06.00N 135-41.00W, 33-19.00N 135-25.00W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 162000Z DEC 23.//</span><br /><br /><a href="https://x.com/M51_4ever/status/1732784611065757972" target="_blank">As pointed out by Twitter user @M51_4ever</a>, this could be test <b>FTG-12</b>, planned for the 4th quarter of 2023. It is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Interceptor" target="_blank">Ground Based Interceptor</a> (GBI) test (part of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-Based_Midcourse_Defense" target="_blank">Ground Based Midcourse Defense</a> (GBMD) system) where only two of the three stages burn, allowing an intercept at closer range (see also <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3328637/missile-defense-agency-officials-hold-a-press-briefing-on-president-bidens-fisc/" target="_blank">here</a>).</p><p>The target missile appears to be a MRBM/IRBM fired from (probably) an aircraft in the vicinity of the fantastically named <i>French Frigate Shoals</i>. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Frigate_Shoals" target="_blank">French Frigate Shoals</a> is a reef/atoll in the Northwestern Hawaii islands, about halfway between Hawai'i and Midway, which got its name from the fact that two Frigates from the ill-fated late 18th century French <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Fran%C3%A7ois_de_Galaup,_comte_de_Lap%C3%A9rouse" target="_blank">Lapérouse expedition</a> (which is a name that should be familiar to any Jules Verne fans) nearly were lost there.</p><p>My interpretation is that the intercept will be about 1000 km out of the California coast, over area D from NAVAREA XII 845 (Area E probably is where stage 2/3 and any remains of the kill vehicle will come down). The target missile will fly some 3300 km before being intercepted (or not: previous tests had an about 1 in 2 miss chance).</p><p>In the map in top of this post, blue is the target missile, red the interceptor.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-37358749374100529782023-12-06T19:00:00.022+01:002023-12-12T19:34:34.893+01:00Navigational Warnings for USSF-52 (X-37B OTV 7) have appeared [UPDATED]<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNig4YwfAG7nbJtp7xP9qrimrL33N_ztWweM5J0u1FxkDMNf0ClWxevWWKHBTStdA-wTLUqrcuLKyT-BQqSNOgbc_X_9A2LllxW6QE-u-wESqShIx-onHum5D8jjkBhNfCbKQ0LBhn4RdRSDuEijbJlghWngOEWBdGVXLamZs-mRs6G-7dORPw/s1697/USSF52_OTV7_X37B.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="875" data-original-width="1697" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNig4YwfAG7nbJtp7xP9qrimrL33N_ztWweM5J0u1FxkDMNf0ClWxevWWKHBTStdA-wTLUqrcuLKyT-BQqSNOgbc_X_9A2LllxW6QE-u-wESqShIx-onHum5D8jjkBhNfCbKQ0LBhn4RdRSDuEijbJlghWngOEWBdGVXLamZs-mRs6G-7dORPw/w640-h330/USSF52_OTV7_X37B.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table> <p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><i>revised post, last updated 12 Dec 2023 18:30 UTC</i></b><br /></p><p><b>Navigational Warnings</b> (NAVAREA IV 1414/23) have appeared which I believe are for <b>USSF-5</b>2, the launch of <b>X-37B mission OTV 7</b> (see also <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/boldly-going-where-no-spaceplane-has.html" target="_blank">this earlier blogpost</a>), on December 11.</p><p>This is the text of the Navigational Warning <br /></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">061024Z DEC 23<br />NAVAREA IV 1414/23(GEN).<br />WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.<br />FLORIDA<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING <br /> 110001Z TO 110431Z DEC, ALTERNATE <br /> 0001Z TO 0431Z DAILY 12 THRU 17 DEC <br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br /> A. 28-39.16N 080-37.80W, 29-12.00N 079-57.00W,<br /> 29-10.00N 079-55.00W, 28-36.00N 080-15.00W,<br /> 28-29.00N 080-24.00W, 28-27.60N 080-31.55W,<br /> 28-27.94N 080-31.75W.<br /> B. 30-30.00N 078-35.00W, 30-58.00N 078-09.00W,<br /> 30-52.00N 077-58.00W, 30-24.00N 078-23.00W.<br /> C. 36-07.00N 071-37.00W, 38-06.00N 069-34.00W,<br /> 38-17.00N 068-32.00W, 38-13.00N 068-27.00W,<br /> 37-32.00N 068-50.00W, 35-58.00N 071-28.00W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 170531Z DEC 23.//</span><br /><br /></p><p>It defines three areas: the immediate launch zone and side booster return corridor (A); the fairings splashdown zone (B); and the core stage return zone (C).</p><p>The initial launch azimuth results in an orbital inclination of about 48.25 degrees.<b> I am however inclined to think that a dogleg might be involved at some point</b>, and the real target inclination might be ~64 degrees.</p><p>From various leads it was speculated that USSF-52/OTV 7 might go into a high orbit, unlike previous OTV missions which al went to the lower reaches of Low Earth Orbit. Among the reasons for this speculation are the choice for a Falcon Heavy rather than Falcon 9, a mention of "new orbital regimes" in a recent US Space Force news bulletin on USSF-52, and a mention of a GTO orbit in a 2017 procurement document for the launch (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/boldly-going-where-no-spaceplane-has.html" target="_blank">this earlier blogpost</a>).</p><p>The core booster return zone is at some 1500 km from the launch site, which is a distance similar to what we have seen with launches into GTO, such as USSF-44. The launch azimuth however clearly does <b>not</b> match a GTO orbit.</p><p>But it all <b>does</b> point to a high apogee orbit. This indicates that perhaps a ~64 degree inclined HEO is targetted. No Navigational Warnings have yet appeared for the second stage (but they might appear later, closer to launch [<i>edit 8 December: as they did!</i> <i><b>see update below</b></i>]),<strike> which could indicate it will stay on orbit, which also points to a high apogee.</strike></p><p>All kinds of speculations are possible, up to the possibility of a service/inspection mission to one of the NRO assets in HEO. Looking at the launch window and orbital plane positions, potential targets then could be USA 179 and USA 184. [<b>update:</b> <i>as the apogee looks to be over the southern hemisphere, this does no longer look very likely though</i>)<br /></p><p>It will be interesting to see in what orbit it eventually goes, although with all, uncertainty it might be difficult to locate once on-orbit.</p><p>The map in top of this post depicts two scenarios: one for direct orbit insertion into ~48 degrees inclined HEO, and one for a ~185 km coasting orbit. <b> </b></p><p><b>EDIT:</b> <i>the map <b>below</b> provides a newly developed scenario aiming for HEO.</i><br /></p><p> </p><p><b>UPDATE </b>8 December 2023:</p><p>Indeed, a <b>second</b> Navigational Warning, NAVAREA XII 846/23, has now appeared, that seems to define the second stage deorbit zone. It confirms that after launch, at some point a dog-leg is done with the 2nd stage pushing the payload into a higher inclination orbit - the shape and direction of the area suggests a 74-degree inclined orbit.</p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">071019Z DEC 23<br />NAVAREA XII 846/23(16,17,19).<br />EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS<br /> 110001Z TO 111615Z DEC, ALTERNATE<br /> 0001Z TO 1615Z DAILY 12 THRU 17 DEC<br /> IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 51-04N 152-41W, 53-27N 141-07W,<br /> 41-40N 136-32W, 38-43N 146-53W <br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 171715Z DEC 23.//</span><br /><br /></p><p><i>I am not entirely certain about the scenario which follows next</i>: but one scenario that fits is initial launch into a 48-degree inclined low orbit, a brief coast, and then 20-25 minutes after launch, over the NE Atlantic, a burn that doglegs the payload into a 74-degree inclined Highly Elliptical Orbit with apogee near 35188 km. This would have the second stage return to perigee (where it can be deorbitted) over the area defined by NAVAREA XII 846/23 at the end of the first revolution. See map below.</p><p>(the trajectory in the map below is so weirdly curved, rather than the
usual sinusoid, because it is a ground-projection of the 2.3 rev/day HEO
trajectory).</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZAT5DSMzxSmtVnbXepgwmUDpEullEch1rqyJh1ytaVH9PP4AzyTPIeNRsGUarYrXukebP8U9V4SLt2KSAMpc_EA39lE2kEfLRrK1ZyL5pbJn7eMpXjp34wxQzeXLhSoNGdwOFBbfbq_2SoM9eUlT8tqwo9VXPUbYq2nppxfynKvrVN4n5gzqN/s1701/USSF52_OTV7_X37B_HEO.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1701" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZAT5DSMzxSmtVnbXepgwmUDpEullEch1rqyJh1ytaVH9PP4AzyTPIeNRsGUarYrXukebP8U9V4SLt2KSAMpc_EA39lE2kEfLRrK1ZyL5pbJn7eMpXjp34wxQzeXLhSoNGdwOFBbfbq_2SoM9eUlT8tqwo9VXPUbYq2nppxfynKvrVN4n5gzqN/w640-h328/USSF52_OTV7_X37B_HEO.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>The resulting HEO is somewhat unusual: 74 degrees inclined (rather than the typical 64-degree Molniya orbit) and with apogee over the <i>southern</i> hemisphere. I am not sure my reconstruction is correct and am open to other suggestions.</p><p><span style="font-family: courier;"><strike>USSF-52 OTV 7 for launch on 11 December 2023 01:18 UTC
<br />1 70000U 23999A 23345.07222222 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08
<br />2 70000 074.0000 314.2121 7272705 135.6501 359.9903 02.32559366 04</strike>
</span></p><p><strike>Launch time will reportedly be</strike> <strike>01:18 UTC (December 11)</strike>. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>SECOND UPDATE,</b> 11 Dec 19:00 UTC:</p><p>The launch has slipped one day, to 12 December 1:14 UTC. And I have revised my orbit estimates, based on new Navigational Warnings (specifically NAVAREA XII 854/23), that put new time constraints that might indicate that the apogee altitude that is higher than my initial estimate:</p><p><span style="font-family: courier;"><strike>USSF-52 OTV 7 for launch on 12 Dec 2023 01:14:00 UTC<br />1 70000U 23999A 23346.07013889 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 06<br />2 70000 074.0000 325.5453 7407989 135.5462 360.0000 02.15472011 09</strike></span></p><p>This orbit has the second stage arrive over what I interpret as the second stage deorbit area around the opening time of Navigational Warning NAVAREA XII 854/23 (corrected for the shift in launch time between December 11 and 12):</p><pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap=""><span style="font-family: courier;">081805Z DEC 23
NAVAREA XII 854/23(16,17,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
111253Z TO 111354Z DEC, ALTERNATE
1252Z TO 1354Z DAILY 12 THRU 17 DEC
IN AREA BOUND BY
51-34.00N 141-57.00W, 49-51.00N 150-42.00W,
40-55.00N 146-02.00W, 42-38.00N 138-36.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 846/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 171454Z DEC 23.</span></pre><p>The resulting orbit with apogee near 37700 km has a daily precession of 4m 22s, matching the 4-minute shift in launch time between december 11 and 12.</p><p>This is the resulting trajectory (see also earlier discussion above): <br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwf5EetLPh0z6zcFIuIGCR-jrMBTkP2UhE4JMYQofsGAMNfHy9qbS58svj8naYLHIONymBpeVHkG2366No8f-OhssHugnHG6JdattLSM6jbkCmtgqmfEJzOakmaMWr-fEJKMJrxJAv75rKKhnbJKQZn86k29xKGqCb-aKb9F0rsaZzWcSTNey/s1694/USSF52_OTV7_X37B_HEO_NEW.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1694" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwf5EetLPh0z6zcFIuIGCR-jrMBTkP2UhE4JMYQofsGAMNfHy9qbS58svj8naYLHIONymBpeVHkG2366No8f-OhssHugnHG6JdattLSM6jbkCmtgqmfEJzOakmaMWr-fEJKMJrxJAv75rKKhnbJKQZn86k29xKGqCb-aKb9F0rsaZzWcSTNey/w640-h330/USSF52_OTV7_X37B_HEO_NEW.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>Below is the approximate initial coasting orbit, before the dogleg to HEO: I slightly revised it to an orbital inclination of 51.5 degrees so that it lines up better with the core stage return area C (my initial estimate was based on Area A only):</p><p><br /><span style="font-family: courier;"><strike>USSF-52 initial parking orbit for launch on 12 Dec 2023 01:14:00 UTC<br />1 70001U 23999A 23346.05138889 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 03<br />2 70001 051.5000 354.4138 0011414 048.2332 322.9851 16.30015116 06</strike></span><br /></p><p>Note that this all strongly hinges on whether the area defined by NAVAREA XII 854/23, south of Alaska, is indeed related to USSF-52 and not something else...</p><p> </p><p><b>THIRD UPDATE</b> 12 Dec 18:30 UTC<br /></p><p>The launch was again postponed and is now slated for no earlier than <b>14 December 1:13 UTC</b>.</p><p>Here are revised elset estimates:<br /><br /><span style="font-family: courier;">USSF-52 OTV 7 for launch on 14 Dec 2023 01:13:00 UTC<br />1 70000U 23999A 23348.06875000 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 08<br />2 70000 074.0000 315.9156 7272705 135.6501 359.9903 02.32559366 00</span></p><span style="font-family: courier;">USSF-52 </span><span style="font-family: courier;">coasting orbit for launch on 14 Dec 2023 01:13:00 U</span><span style="font-family: courier;">TC<br />1 70001U 23999A 23347.05069445 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 05<br />2 70001 051.5000 355.1488 0011414 048.2332 322.9851 16.30015116 02</span><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC9NFC6lyo2P8VAudWujjoG6LL-9h1BN8q99Xek5RHrp14ZpX7f4HTejYRpB4u-JFjEaMi4OJhCqTcweA4ClR2GokkvWIc36RWQrnzZ_fuK0tYwUdQc-0R1v0muZBcqZrmwHKqpdpXofQreaudD-Mo-AnL9G5c65sVZ9VsncusC4grkak17vg5/s1110/OTV7.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="943" data-original-width="1110" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC9NFC6lyo2P8VAudWujjoG6LL-9h1BN8q99Xek5RHrp14ZpX7f4HTejYRpB4u-JFjEaMi4OJhCqTcweA4ClR2GokkvWIc36RWQrnzZ_fuK0tYwUdQc-0R1v0muZBcqZrmwHKqpdpXofQreaudD-Mo-AnL9G5c65sVZ9VsncusC4grkak17vg5/w640-h544/OTV7.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click to enlarge</i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-50605069177542577862023-11-25T14:28:00.020+01:002023-12-04T19:54:17.780+01:00North Korea's Malligyong-1 satellite and imaging Guam [UPDATED]<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq6CUdGC-AUhCDlGJjarDt2Jd2piLsJqZWf59cJcefdc5tw1wG66z_WXoo3zL1ScSwXL00HOc9RmHmR3Djs0BomTCCkpsLQhooGn0iyMKN5El4OccpvjKgXJEhe_4ENLdEy9kB105IHXXzUFZb-XK49F5eBRek1OG8AgR2_ZGzUPC3DwliT8Cj/s889/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="889" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq6CUdGC-AUhCDlGJjarDt2Jd2piLsJqZWf59cJcefdc5tw1wG66z_WXoo3zL1ScSwXL00HOc9RmHmR3Djs0BomTCCkpsLQhooGn0iyMKN5El4OccpvjKgXJEhe_4ENLdEy9kB105IHXXzUFZb-XK49F5eBRek1OG8AgR2_ZGzUPC3DwliT8Cj/w640-h432/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>image: KCNA</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <p></p><p>Colin Zwirko of <i>North Korea News</i> brought the image above to my attention. It accompanies a <a href="http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/61e6edeb8bd846ffcfe131e282256d21.kcmsf" target="_blank">KCNA news bulletin</a> about a visit of <b>Kim Jong Un</b> to the <b>NADA Control Center</b> in Pyongyang, on November 22, about half a day after launch of the Malligyong-1 satellite.</p><p>Colin <a href="https://x.com/ColinZwirko/status/1727888681086939232?s=20" target="_blank">pointed out</a> that you can just make out what appears to be a satellite ground-track on the blurred map on display in the control center.</p><p>In the KCNA bulletin, it is claimed that KJU, during his visit to the center:</p><p></p><blockquote>"<i>watched the aerospace photos of Anderson Air Force Base, Apra Harbor and other major military bases of the U.S. forces taken in the sky above Guam in the Pacific, which were received at 9:21 a.m. on Nov. 22</i>."</blockquote><p></p><p>At <b>9:21 am local time</b> in Pyongyang (00:21 UTC) on November 22, Malligyong-1 was indeed just appearing over the horizon at, and coming in radio reach of, NADA Control Center, having passed over Guam seven minutes earlier, near 9:18 local time in Pyongyang (00:18 UTC). At 9:25:27 local time (00:25:27 UTC), the satellite was closest in range to the NADA Control Center (I mention this as it becomes relevant later).</p><p>These three images below show the ground-track and position of Malligyong-1 and its footprint (the area that has the satellite above the local horizon) for the moment it passed over Guam (00:18 UTC); for the claimed moment North Korea received images (00:21 UTC); and for the moment of closest range to the NADA Control Center (00:25:27 UTC):<br /></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiducintkE0f_RRe6rsy6iGIakj3-vy7GUvvtoqshxB5UZEtyRQAViL6kzQkovuHekP-KbYTy_ZucxEH_3GNpQVj0UtF40D9U6T0nj2tqdXVRlMZ-NW967o5bgHR1nqdcnN_Q2OVS8Yc4zcfuF6jIx9JlykxPwjj-bc-LfS2F488czMq5kzUQYN/s972/Malligyong1_22nov2023_0018UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="972" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiducintkE0f_RRe6rsy6iGIakj3-vy7GUvvtoqshxB5UZEtyRQAViL6kzQkovuHekP-KbYTy_ZucxEH_3GNpQVj0UtF40D9U6T0nj2tqdXVRlMZ-NW967o5bgHR1nqdcnN_Q2OVS8Yc4zcfuF6jIx9JlykxPwjj-bc-LfS2F488czMq5kzUQYN/w640-h506/Malligyong1_22nov2023_0018UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqL6W7QtEONU-uBZ4Jaf73mmam6QNFY6CB3Q_I0DgfaoT3YWNRHtFFf2XL7P4guofwGIGy5ij11mNGdVpC8_g6zgUEfc2ToP6BTskr8HKQtxS4vquNm_XHPBhxkl0mmlxm1dcJjSwRXYxOR5BOcmUor2uz9NVRFTLA113A01IjVHdNHjl2dw8-/s972/Malligyong1_22nov2023_0021UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="972" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqL6W7QtEONU-uBZ4Jaf73mmam6QNFY6CB3Q_I0DgfaoT3YWNRHtFFf2XL7P4guofwGIGy5ij11mNGdVpC8_g6zgUEfc2ToP6BTskr8HKQtxS4vquNm_XHPBhxkl0mmlxm1dcJjSwRXYxOR5BOcmUor2uz9NVRFTLA113A01IjVHdNHjl2dw8-/w640-h506/Malligyong1_22nov2023_0021UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEietNWsZaHqC0RbzkOEFtAyLrff2rg5tMJ4UIdrwo0avtbjuAgQQujjT5Eo5jRAegsjJpNIqfum4IhJ0cSpB4iLoEwdV-q31DSrV3QqgP4ITkfjEEkVpYZistZjV65WwOA6gtVbqYCbSYBpcf6OMo7rvVEADVmY1yqXK7xSNMlDiyi1MA0LqkJa/s972/Malligyong1_22nov2023_002527UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="972" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEietNWsZaHqC0RbzkOEFtAyLrff2rg5tMJ4UIdrwo0avtbjuAgQQujjT5Eo5jRAegsjJpNIqfum4IhJ0cSpB4iLoEwdV-q31DSrV3QqgP4ITkfjEEkVpYZistZjV65WwOA6gtVbqYCbSYBpcf6OMo7rvVEADVmY1yqXK7xSNMlDiyi1MA0LqkJa/w640-h506/Malligyong1_22nov2023_002527UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></p><br /><p>So <i>theoretically</i>, it is indeed possible that Malligyong-1 made images of Guam near 00:18 UTC, and relayed these to the NADA Control Center a few minutes later, starting around 00:21 UTC when it came into radio reach of the latter.<br /> <br />(<b>note added 3-12-2023:</b><i> this could perhaps indicate it only broadcasts a signal when in range of Pyongyang. This would explain why people like Scott Tilley and me have not been able to find it active in radio frequencies: it is imperative that radio operators in Japan and South Korea try if they can find it active. First try the lower reaches of UHF, i.e. 400-500 MHz, as that is where for example the Iranian Nour satellites broadcast and we know there are connections between the N-Korean and Iranian rocketry programs</i>).<br /></p><p>The line on the map on display in the NADA Control Center in the KCNA image conforms to the Malligyong-1 pass in question. A bright dot on the track over the Sea of Japan seems to closely conform to the point of closest range to NADA CC, around 00:25:27 UTC (see also the animated GIF further down in this blogpost):<br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEUQSOrjzuYK3Waq-9h4mTUg3mHcFbDIkILbmBVog6FAN9_K7g1XV0IMqptwbf2wht1zoB5nykDWHy-TeT1MeoEA6xOLDD8lbD2taKc3m9m66uLtWlmHaK-3CbSKLNlpCpqF3Q_4YPYRPVwHBfN_cwDi5zXN9Z2_RqdBq5GGCiQaJdY47ME0iq/s1110/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA_edit.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1110" data-original-width="720" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEUQSOrjzuYK3Waq-9h4mTUg3mHcFbDIkILbmBVog6FAN9_K7g1XV0IMqptwbf2wht1zoB5nykDWHy-TeT1MeoEA6xOLDD8lbD2taKc3m9m66uLtWlmHaK-3CbSKLNlpCpqF3Q_4YPYRPVwHBfN_cwDi5zXN9Z2_RqdBq5GGCiQaJdY47ME0iq/w416-h640/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA_edit.jpg" width="416" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>Compare to this map I made of the Malligyong-1 ground-track around that time:</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_dVATjOXWQ2Au3yCt6mEYbLTS9QoCNBhJUJl0NLydZMs5oaEHpf_ddk3J6PrUAeCXVDDT3dIp_srtusYHGaL47qp29HnBU6JIy1-6BZti3CcIYbZkndq5SLqaMdqDhUygKjz0r-8hW7o3kayW-ThCopLEQkmLoB9B3tg5Aj27MLCPRlG1M3Fp/s1172/map_trajectory_with_bathymetry_andGuam.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1172" data-original-width="1148" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_dVATjOXWQ2Au3yCt6mEYbLTS9QoCNBhJUJl0NLydZMs5oaEHpf_ddk3J6PrUAeCXVDDT3dIp_srtusYHGaL47qp29HnBU6JIy1-6BZti3CcIYbZkndq5SLqaMdqDhUygKjz0r-8hW7o3kayW-ThCopLEQkmLoB9B3tg5Aj27MLCPRlG1M3Fp/w626-h640/map_trajectory_with_bathymetry_andGuam.jpg" width="626" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />In this animated GIF, I have superposed both maps, showing the match:<br /><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUq4VFc5ETvavAxDRvwOeDKhRzRJVAJHMUE3exFngLbnAYgCWjnrpMHERAJUfwQcp2zwX4-ijcrFeMojBBMA-cCp2J2rpXiVJoPBT4xRqsBBfttLzeP_ev4VII4L967BADe58RFO1zsExKN1U9raEgrGU8e7E7y4BeolN64g3rxTu8lK8oJR2f/s1175/comparison_animgif.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1175" data-original-width="1150" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUq4VFc5ETvavAxDRvwOeDKhRzRJVAJHMUE3exFngLbnAYgCWjnrpMHERAJUfwQcp2zwX4-ijcrFeMojBBMA-cCp2J2rpXiVJoPBT4xRqsBBfttLzeP_ev4VII4L967BADe58RFO1zsExKN1U9raEgrGU8e7E7y4BeolN64g3rxTu8lK8oJR2f/w626-h640/comparison_animgif.gif" width="626" /></a></div><br /><p>This however <b>does not necessarily mean that North Korea indeed obtained imagery of Guam</b> <b>on this pass</b>, as is claimed in the KCNA bulletin.</p><p>Usually, a satellite <b>goes through a checkout-phase first</b> before becoming fully operational. Solar panels and antenna's have to be unfurled, systems started up and checked, attitude and pointing brought under control, camera's calibrated. This check-out phase usually takes days to weeks. Having imagery within hours, would be quite fast.<br /></p><p>So unless North Korea publishes the imagery, it remains conjecture whether the claim is true or just propaganda. <br /></p><p>One final thing to remark: if the image in the NADA Control Center was indeed taken during KJU's visit around 10 am local Pyongyang time (according to KCNA) on November 22, this means it was taken <b>before orbits of Malligyong-1 became publicly available</b>. The first public available, US released orbit is of epoch 00:14 UTC on the 22nd, but was not released untill 3:26 UTC, some 2.5 hours after KJU's visit and, it appears, some two hours after the image in the NADA Control Center was taken.. <br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIxm3uIX_DC9NweolMPyV9hdg7vMyRISvEdpWUOcH5fh6Gap_GXwHcPhsTgDyYemtQv_I5EvzyDAsHy1WB-Fvh_nMf4dNjsnuTRLd5HVEqECs0H1Lx-vdnTm9FI40ljwyauoZxMqEPoNC1cZvlb07HmFykZ_AJHMloj7VCUyRnHN213YoPKfwn/s889/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA_anotclocks.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="889" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIxm3uIX_DC9NweolMPyV9hdg7vMyRISvEdpWUOcH5fh6Gap_GXwHcPhsTgDyYemtQv_I5EvzyDAsHy1WB-Fvh_nMf4dNjsnuTRLd5HVEqECs0H1Lx-vdnTm9FI40ljwyauoZxMqEPoNC1cZvlb07HmFykZ_AJHMloj7VCUyRnHN213YoPKfwn/w640-h432/PIC0077349_otherbulletin_visitNADA_anotclocks.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Two clocks are visible in the photograph</b> that would indicate it was indeed taken during KJU's visit, around 1:17 UTC, and therefore before public release of orbital elements: one partial clock can be seen on the right, marking "10:.." in likely local time, the other on the left can be seen in full and is marking "01:17" in what is likely UTC (maybe someone fluent in Korean could confirm what the Korean text above the clock says?).<br /><br />The image would then date to about 1 hour after any imagery of Guam was obtained.<br /><br />The orbit on the map in the NADA Control Center <b>conforms to the real orbit in detail</b>, suggesting (if we take face value that the photograph was taken at 01:17 UTC) that North Korea did have either their own tracking data or a telemetry-derived orbit already <i>before</i> the US tracking network published the first public orbits. (while some might say this is perhaps not surprising, and I agree, I mention it because there are still those who question any indigenous capacity North Korea might have when it comes to their missile and space program)<br /></p><p>It is of course possible that the image in reality was shot at a later moment, after the orbital elements were publicly released, and the clocks doctored (I mention this as North Korea has a history of doing this kind of stuff).</p><p><b>UPDATE</b> 27 Nov 2023:<br /><br />On November 25, <a href="http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/a3945ac857d2e5c2c2aee924c605160d.kcmsf" target="_blank">a new KCNA bulletin</a> mentions a second visit of Kim Jong Un to the NADA Control Center that day where he "<i>watched the photos of major target areas in the enemy region, including Jinhae, Pusan, Ulsan, Phohang, Taegu and Kangrung, taken by
the reconnaissance satellite from 09:59:40 to 10:02:10 a.m</i>.".</p><p>Specifically are mentioned, photographs: </p><p><br />"<i>taken by the reconnaissance satellite at 10:01:10 shows the U.S. Navy
nuclear carrier Carl Vinson, which is anchored at the military port in
Ryongho-dong, Nam-gu of Pusan City</i>"</p><p>...and photographs of the: </p><p>"<i>naval base in the Pearl Harbor, the Hickam air-force base in Honolulu
and other objects, taken by the reconnaissance satellite while passing
over Hawaii of the U.S. at 05:13:22 a.m. on Nov. 25 in Pyongyang time</i>"</p><p>Again, the quoted times match the closest approach points on actual passes over/near these targets, as can be seen in the maps below. And the USSN <i>Carl Vinson</i> <b>is</b> in Busan (Pusan) harbor, <a href="https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1728924675714187488?s=20" target="_blank">as Jeffrey Lewis pointed out on Twitter</a> (this does not necessarily mean they have this info of satellite imagery of course).</p><p>(in the maps below, quoted times and dates are in UTC. To get Pyongyang local time, add 9 hours). <br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5g6yXMcUgVnyRCvYv6EJeUdRwimurbWs-bmzBNOqNamgJi_qim_LIIaAk2pn56AHFTNVX6C9xIM2drKwPZqPqz3VB0rVSymovxlFKq0BUBsROqqqSRLtFECh2fEEwgvKGxVPLPMMcC2YVo50keQVDi7cZu1_0j50jTamG6TlnRad2bElDERKu/s1550/Malligyong1_25Nov2023_010110UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1120" data-original-width="1550" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5g6yXMcUgVnyRCvYv6EJeUdRwimurbWs-bmzBNOqNamgJi_qim_LIIaAk2pn56AHFTNVX6C9xIM2drKwPZqPqz3VB0rVSymovxlFKq0BUBsROqqqSRLtFECh2fEEwgvKGxVPLPMMcC2YVo50keQVDi7cZu1_0j50jTamG6TlnRad2bElDERKu/w640-h462/Malligyong1_25Nov2023_010110UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8WTuxQ0PCfrFvZurc2OxrDTtextYds5SNJ21rNdS8BcB-UBQKt8bzKVqJp-3PYzYZcEXogXjdJumKDI9BfZam8I80CnPhJkO5n6jkrxkLOMptBTzsICqPcAvZ9wCLwe68DqH3SOY-YYcQ9SSa2NUfX-gtHhIrcoOvjQ362vP6dZ_XtB9G_lx-/s1622/Malligyong1_24Nov2023_201322UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1146" data-original-width="1622" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8WTuxQ0PCfrFvZurc2OxrDTtextYds5SNJ21rNdS8BcB-UBQKt8bzKVqJp-3PYzYZcEXogXjdJumKDI9BfZam8I80CnPhJkO5n6jkrxkLOMptBTzsICqPcAvZ9wCLwe68DqH3SOY-YYcQ9SSa2NUfX-gtHhIrcoOvjQ362vP6dZ_XtB9G_lx-/w640-h452/Malligyong1_24Nov2023_201322UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-87152034707360983102023-11-22T14:04:00.020+01:002023-11-23T10:04:05.620+01:00North Korea successfully launches the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNNiRaDBMpN7fBml7hyp-BViEmwDdz727hLukewr6E0brA-VoPriBUZbYlRULkdl0QBO8NRh7Dp9fBlM6hXdDzlR8CGIMOE_3j__cj66AMzov2x4cBDcbO01AY0tm5wzlfHbKBdRl2F_l1NFC7PJGUKsoSwRCulhf74S5SZrFnJGCW10IytyXP/s900/PIC0077336.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNNiRaDBMpN7fBml7hyp-BViEmwDdz727hLukewr6E0brA-VoPriBUZbYlRULkdl0QBO8NRh7Dp9fBlM6hXdDzlR8CGIMOE_3j__cj66AMzov2x4cBDcbO01AY0tm5wzlfHbKBdRl2F_l1NFC7PJGUKsoSwRCulhf74S5SZrFnJGCW10IytyXP/w640-h424/PIC0077336.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>image: KCNA</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p> <p></p><p>On <b>21 November 2023 at 13:42:28 UTC</b>, according to the State News Agency <a href="http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/1eb1892a9d329f7cd348008b6bd315bd.kcmsf" target="_blank">KCNA</a>, <b>North Korea</b> succesfully launched its new <b>Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite</b> to orbit. The launch was from Sohae platform 2 using a (also new) Chollima-1 rocket. </p><p>This was <b>the third launch attempt</b>. Two earlier attempts, on May 31 (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/05/north-korea-announces-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">this blogpost</a>) and August 23 (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/08/a-new-north-korean-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">this blogpost</a>) failed to reach orbit due to malfunctions of respectively the second and third Chollima stages.<br /></p><p>Yesterday's sucessful launch happened 1h 18m <b>before</b> the window from the published Navigational Warning <i>HYDROPAC 3667/23</i> (<a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/north-korea-to-try-third-time-to-launch.html" target="_blank">see earlier blogpost here</a>) opened, hence taking everybody by surprise.<br /></p><p>KCNA reports that orbit insertion was at 13:54:13 UTC.</p><p>The US Military Space Tracking network CSpOC <a href="https://www.space-track.org/" target="_blank">has published</a> <b>orbits for two objects</b> resulting from this launch, <b>confirming the North Korean claim of a successful orbit insertion</b>. </p><p><b>Object A</b> (nr 58400, 2023-179A) is likely the payload, <b>Malligyong-1</b>, and is in a <b>97.43 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km sun-synchronous orbit</b>. </p><p><b>Object B</b> (nr 58401, 2023-179B) is likely the <b>Chollima-1 upper stage</b> and is in a <b>97.41 degree inclined, 512 x 467 km orbit</b>.</p><p>The orbit of the payload is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun-synchronous_orbit" target="_blank">Sun-synchronous orbit</a> with a repeating ground track. It results in daily transits over Pyongyang around 10:00 and 22:00 local time, with a ground track that repeats itself each five days. This is consistent with a function as an optical reconnaissance satellite.<br /></p><p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCaWmsGgBCsImr6DnCFRJ8A-sm_4OJmhvVEjjMXEzG-wItOfNkgNcWRQOqAKHExBtO2OmusbFBKlUPyi-uzME2qeoWoDpKJO1s39DvIYwN7Xc0kLkdnpIRcUKIpgk0JR8TWUcbLmORr2pO6alss4INVyyB_1cqiYzgNjc-IP1Lz93VYnUkez7j/s1100/Malligyong1_orbit.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="950" data-original-width="1100" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCaWmsGgBCsImr6DnCFRJ8A-sm_4OJmhvVEjjMXEzG-wItOfNkgNcWRQOqAKHExBtO2OmusbFBKlUPyi-uzME2qeoWoDpKJO1s39DvIYwN7Xc0kLkdnpIRcUKIpgk0JR8TWUcbLmORr2pO6alss4INVyyB_1cqiYzgNjc-IP1Lz93VYnUkez7j/w640-h552/Malligyong1_orbit.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>I analysed the orbital trajectory in relation to the positions of the hazard zones from Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 3667/23. </p><p>Earlier this year, in connection to the first launch attempt, there was a <b>discussion</b> whether: </p><p></p><blockquote><p>(1) a multiple dogleg was involved, or;</p><p>(2) a direct orbit insertion with post-separation restart and dogleg manoeuvering of the second stage, or; <br /></p><p>(3) a dogleg manoeuvre of the second stage pre-separation with insertion into a 78-degree inclined non-SSO orbit. </p></blockquote><p></p><p>The reason for the discussion, was that <b>the splashdown area for stage 2</b> east of the Philippines, was <b>out of line</b> with the splashdown areas for stage one and the fairings. The direction marked by the splashdown areas for the first stage and fairings would actually match a direct SSO insertion. A detailed discussion of the issue is <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/05/north-korea-announces-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">in this previous blogpost</a> on the May launch attempt.<br /></p><p>We now have an answer, based on the position of the orbit at orbit insertion: a <b>double dogleg</b> by both the second and third stages was involved, as illustrated below:</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9VKQifP0ywCGGr50o-xVFbnYUIvZNYLc8cLaHvZWAJsSj6YFkQJ0gps9fI3ecH50n5HYylTZHLiVwA0LYTlyrh53aiE09UFe0uwE-CW4DWLVhgUA3lIAPf43URSljEW_DSiq9NP82hg7Zz4fjYLuHmJjMNfinS9SMMO_mFNkcVCVrGtlAQROG/s1230/Malligyong1_21Nov2023_1342UTC_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1162" data-original-width="1230" height="604" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9VKQifP0ywCGGr50o-xVFbnYUIvZNYLc8cLaHvZWAJsSj6YFkQJ0gps9fI3ecH50n5HYylTZHLiVwA0LYTlyrh53aiE09UFe0uwE-CW4DWLVhgUA3lIAPf43URSljEW_DSiq9NP82hg7Zz4fjYLuHmJjMNfinS9SMMO_mFNkcVCVrGtlAQROG/w640-h604/Malligyong1_21Nov2023_1342UTC_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>After separation from the first stage, <b>stage two made a dogleg eastward</b>. After separation from the second stage, <b>stage three then made another dogleg westward</b>, and next brought the payload to the orbit insertion point, the stage itself also attaining orbit in that process (where it is now space debris).</p><p>(note: the manoeuvers were likely a bit less 'sharp' than in the illustration above)<br /></p><p>The resulting orbit is basically what would have been achieved with a direct insertion along the original launch azimuth, <b>but with the RAAN shifted by 4.2 degrees</b>. The double dog-leg was probably chosen to avoid the second stage falling too close to the Philippines or (in case it underperformed) on China or Taiwan.</p><p>[<i>update</i>] <a href="https://allsky7.groups.io/g/german/message/4961" target="_blank">Some interesting footage</a> has appeared on the internet from a South Korean all-sky meteor camera operated by Yonsei University. It shows the first and second stage, with the first stage blowing up after separation of the second stage. This could well have been deliberate (to avoid intact hardware recovery by South Korea: or because of range safety), but can also have been accidental (see for example how the Starship stage 1 accidentally blew up just a few days earlier). [<i>end</i>]<br /></p><p>Here are a few photo's of the launch, from the North Korean State News Agency<a href="http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/1eb1892a9d329f7cd348008b6bd315bd.kcmsf" target="_blank"> KCNA</a>:<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2b0a1ghXyioGAEq0v4J9kF9JGHtHFZagzhmjqsSpPMLa8J8L7IWrtWg0omm6YQxkfdb_YqXGaZ9EW3lcBHV0GLjz4xPoCi2GutdxbK2feBNhPUd44j9__0Bv7dG02kVM9e-K42H5UoQ1hIwfVKNhmsgZUqfM2rn-W1oKFdKl5tODEwW8O7yXi/s900/PIC0077343.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2b0a1ghXyioGAEq0v4J9kF9JGHtHFZagzhmjqsSpPMLa8J8L7IWrtWg0omm6YQxkfdb_YqXGaZ9EW3lcBHV0GLjz4xPoCi2GutdxbK2feBNhPUd44j9__0Bv7dG02kVM9e-K42H5UoQ1hIwfVKNhmsgZUqfM2rn-W1oKFdKl5tODEwW8O7yXi/w640-h424/PIC0077343.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_BBhvbRvKqNq_xT1_qEcfC3hXvZbgMsLXBv-76c_akx-LTdvs8GqFEKyIkHYcxXYysZ7m4gfkbznC6f0PgC9G6ylQP2HrfShWKHRUkxthCvGeYkFhWl0EvUOYxIs_rzSklZ_L6tS0E4s3kOoHe6ABmvbRzNuljDp9DSvI4LLje0_PoED2Q16/s900/PIC0077344.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo_BBhvbRvKqNq_xT1_qEcfC3hXvZbgMsLXBv-76c_akx-LTdvs8GqFEKyIkHYcxXYysZ7m4gfkbznC6f0PgC9G6ylQP2HrfShWKHRUkxthCvGeYkFhWl0EvUOYxIs_rzSklZ_L6tS0E4s3kOoHe6ABmvbRzNuljDp9DSvI4LLje0_PoED2Q16/w640-h424/PIC0077344.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbINEJohZnYT69UiUcQU89wEJ8Q73uSdYiRg9A4L4xP_Zd1yf4Bns75FAdMphIxvyiythFZ_Br6EFbYDpZ9zPld8av_J4zHPPYmkiCKc_u9_5XtFOrJIunvIc3iw-sQssdYRGslJB5rgUSkLooqZI-f6tpZNEuCRJHhjYazkpA24xqEoejXQ7r/s900/PIC0077332.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="900" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbINEJohZnYT69UiUcQU89wEJ8Q73uSdYiRg9A4L4xP_Zd1yf4Bns75FAdMphIxvyiythFZ_Br6EFbYDpZ9zPld8av_J4zHPPYmkiCKc_u9_5XtFOrJIunvIc3iw-sQssdYRGslJB5rgUSkLooqZI-f6tpZNEuCRJHhjYazkpA24xqEoejXQ7r/w640-h394/PIC0077332.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhrfdJeod5muIRKj0xa15B4rFrxJVpl1pCP5lxt1SYXH3s6sFbgnTbwBCEWoDYAM9VgUKFe9CRGBMa0K7HQRdRxcnB2BFnGfqlhn94VKiGXxA-1nFswqv5rCxc3LXATpFa7ACt3EzsXgYF1nbVmFfRv519j3J8aMNM5zBB7m0cLQS2806cSood/s900/PIC0077342.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="900" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhrfdJeod5muIRKj0xa15B4rFrxJVpl1pCP5lxt1SYXH3s6sFbgnTbwBCEWoDYAM9VgUKFe9CRGBMa0K7HQRdRxcnB2BFnGfqlhn94VKiGXxA-1nFswqv5rCxc3LXATpFa7ACt3EzsXgYF1nbVmFfRv519j3J8aMNM5zBB7m0cLQS2806cSood/w640-h426/PIC0077342.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiOdS0EuQSmmodsQ54NYuZg8-lKI9rC6ulwmrc5FT0nQviBE512Vn-mgsmaashfROYYrpsXLgyX_4cruD7NB9_v7S8nBnw_eJiUmCALEW0NiX_LgkoBjPD-KRt72IT2Ywj8jtMM39iNmglOfHxIt37duH75JjhcrEPkA4g9tsBiI7O4KTikbAb/s900/PIC0077345.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiOdS0EuQSmmodsQ54NYuZg8-lKI9rC6ulwmrc5FT0nQviBE512Vn-mgsmaashfROYYrpsXLgyX_4cruD7NB9_v7S8nBnw_eJiUmCALEW0NiX_LgkoBjPD-KRt72IT2Ywj8jtMM39iNmglOfHxIt37duH75JjhcrEPkA4g9tsBiI7O4KTikbAb/w640-h424/PIC0077345.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXUaePvW5TtpSPOaUWz-rLPtfpv5EmoBs6prziJMV4k8H9HRHUj9Qan_MgT4A8TrmmAbFaoJfj2yYfQuz_g_AcIyXJZTIRxcDVEe2ozy8ihfJ5P8spEqlpPVRYJJfBaARdrznnm1QQ4mzMMon8xlkVn4AwSL7MF30FuK3FSNoq4sree85AvUSZ/s900/PIC0077339.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXUaePvW5TtpSPOaUWz-rLPtfpv5EmoBs6prziJMV4k8H9HRHUj9Qan_MgT4A8TrmmAbFaoJfj2yYfQuz_g_AcIyXJZTIRxcDVEe2ozy8ihfJ5P8spEqlpPVRYJJfBaARdrznnm1QQ4mzMMon8xlkVn4AwSL7MF30FuK3FSNoq4sree85AvUSZ/w640-h424/PIC0077339.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5vAWYSPDrNLCBHl1AXdE5n8yNFjIROUrPUmmyv3bMV0_OBjsMTHnrUPO4sCzzh4Ypt2mAMiFlhtTjs-qMyhHRsImZS9p3544P_ZWOzTVkvsLhcX4UZByScbmKXbQ_W-tVlbTDyUGEI13OQt6yCWn6ae1KIHU92hRc0ta0s9Uht8l9ih1dPBaW/s900/PIC0077346.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5vAWYSPDrNLCBHl1AXdE5n8yNFjIROUrPUmmyv3bMV0_OBjsMTHnrUPO4sCzzh4Ypt2mAMiFlhtTjs-qMyhHRsImZS9p3544P_ZWOzTVkvsLhcX4UZByScbmKXbQ_W-tVlbTDyUGEI13OQt6yCWn6ae1KIHU92hRc0ta0s9Uht8l9ih1dPBaW/w640-h424/PIC0077346.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6N6vLPiYe-R-UhmJPZw_ErBgSTIX8GEsCy9JtsumgIcMzMlePuBjkRJC_g8zNgqvH3dwLRBqOeIeQpzlszP9YD3ySC2l0gCP90q1KGKV-uq6jKXwNLrXSIiRMjC4WTicAKgm40wHyOM8aNeDdeYDjKnerd70okQH2exjodNBFKNiRtxJNGO40/s900/PIC0077340.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="900" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6N6vLPiYe-R-UhmJPZw_ErBgSTIX8GEsCy9JtsumgIcMzMlePuBjkRJC_g8zNgqvH3dwLRBqOeIeQpzlszP9YD3ySC2l0gCP90q1KGKV-uq6jKXwNLrXSIiRMjC4WTicAKgm40wHyOM8aNeDdeYDjKnerd70okQH2exjodNBFKNiRtxJNGO40/w640-h424/PIC0077340.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>"Thar She Goes! No Kablooih this time!"</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-16659171171901694482023-11-21T01:46:00.007+01:002023-11-21T23:23:23.649+01:00North Korea to try a third time to launch its Chollima-1 rocket and Malligyong-1 satellite coming days [UPDATED]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEtR3biVckMtctA8bNT7mAoNMLtDwsKnkn4VSE-k39k8Nx0KvTNgdS5ZgdKumJAmlnr40qBpfiw2yoDAxmOoCql9UR5gpuZOSZRxnu2bZd0nimvVj8n-Cz5QDTb0Pw3Q88vzcD46OLvOM0qrDCYJEcnOG5jvex8gPBpQ101_lgRcZuyETwKWEc/s1395/NK_Nov2023_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1145" data-original-width="1395" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEtR3biVckMtctA8bNT7mAoNMLtDwsKnkn4VSE-k39k8Nx0KvTNgdS5ZgdKumJAmlnr40qBpfiw2yoDAxmOoCql9UR5gpuZOSZRxnu2bZd0nimvVj8n-Cz5QDTb0Pw3Q88vzcD46OLvOM0qrDCYJEcnOG5jvex8gPBpQ101_lgRcZuyETwKWEc/w640-h526/NK_Nov2023_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><b>UPDATE</b> 21 Nov 2023: <i> </i></p><p><i>North Korea launched the satellite on 21 Nov 13:42 GMT (1h 18m before opening of the window from the Navigational Warnings!) and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-flags-plan-launch-satellite-rocket-between-nov-22-dec-1-japan-says-2023-11-20/" target="_blank">claims the launch was successful</a></i>.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><p>A <b>Navigational Warning</b>, <i>HYDROPAC 3667/23</i>, has appeared today that suggests that <b>North Korea will do a third attempt</b> to launch their new military reconnaisance satellite <b>Malligyong-1</b> on their new <b>Chollima-1</b> space launch vehicle the coming days, perhaps as early as to morrow 21 November. <br /></p><p>They tried twice before: on May 31 (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/05/north-korea-announces-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">this blogpost</a>) and on August 23 (see <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/08/a-new-north-korean-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">this blogpost</a>). During the first attempt on May 31 the second stage failed; during the second attempt on August 23, the third stage self-destructed. Maybe they will get it right this time.</p><p>The launch window runs from November 21 15:00 UTC to November 30 15:00 UTC, based on the Navigational Warning.</p><p>The locations of the three hazard areas from the Navigational Warning are similar to those for the May and August launch attempts: Areas A and B (fairings and first stage splashdown) are southwest of Sohae in the direction towards China and Taiwan, and Area C, the second stage splash-down area, is east of the Philippines. See the map above. </p><p>As <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/05/north-korea-announces-satellite-launch.html" target="_blank">discussed before</a> in the context of the May launch, the location of Area C suggests that a dog-leg by the second stage is involved: either before third stage release, or after.</p><p>This is the text of the Navigational Warning:<br /><span style="font-family: courier;"><br /></span></p><pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap=""><span style="font-family: courier;">201932Z NOV 23
HYDROPAC 3667/23(91,92,94).
EAST CHINA SEA.
PHILIPPINE SEA.
YELLOW SEA.
CHINA.
DNC 11, DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
211500Z TO 301500Z NOV IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 36-02.44N 123-59.18E, 36-06.94N 123-33.11E,
35-24.52N 123-22.78E, 35-20.02N 123-48.62E.
B. 33-58.97N 123-40.07E, 34-05.90N 123-01.99E,
33-23.47N 122-51.88E, 33-16.54N 123-29.66E.
C. 15-01.70N 129-24.05E, 14-54.17N 128-40.10E,
11-19.30N 129-10.84E, 11-26.81N 129-54.13E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301600Z NOV 23.</span></pre><p>During the previous two launches, Japan and South Korea acted ridiculously panicky, sounding sirens and telling civilians to take shelter. This is however a pre-announced space launch, not an unannounced ballistic missile launch, on a trajectory that avoids flying over significant pieces of land surface. Sounding sirens and telling people to take shelter, is an over-reaction. Hopefully they will act less panicky this time, as this kind of panic serves no purpose.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-60863088804996966872023-11-18T18:49:00.011+01:002023-11-18T22:56:16.500+01:00Where did Starship fragments end up after its in-flight destruction? [UPDATED]<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ydscalxQ__Tr5aZgS0TMHYmq5eKdNSsdA9AWSsWL9IdZqm0T2UlmEEhMZRKzC6ehr9zIF_9-5QjEi7WLGJ0DouusL24kgvlLsHokwg9nP8VZjotGAUn_js-S2pF_DmiV3YplTkDW1HIuHP2hC7SAasuhct7eivUUl-MVFLQ0h4TKjTqlC3d8/s1616/1m2_6p7kms.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1133" data-original-width="1616" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ydscalxQ__Tr5aZgS0TMHYmq5eKdNSsdA9AWSsWL9IdZqm0T2UlmEEhMZRKzC6ehr9zIF_9-5QjEi7WLGJ0DouusL24kgvlLsHokwg9nP8VZjotGAUn_js-S2pF_DmiV3YplTkDW1HIuHP2hC7SAasuhct7eivUUl-MVFLQ0h4TKjTqlC3d8/w640-h448/1m2_6p7kms.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5NjJ5vaglRn_hcRn-0nomz87vGbu5iqvrG4jy3kKEpxNPEcljucEkPauenaI5WvgMQHGmCa0-KoJXC4lX25JelZhOGVxVASOlzqhHp3nQ171yGEVQtipJN-N5Xi6_7JEW_HlvuvH1xbsbBlKwEcXfb6Ezf7b9fKJSM-hyw7dZji0qdMVPveYJ/s1611/Fulldry_120tons.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1131" data-original-width="1611" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5NjJ5vaglRn_hcRn-0nomz87vGbu5iqvrG4jy3kKEpxNPEcljucEkPauenaI5WvgMQHGmCa0-KoJXC4lX25JelZhOGVxVASOlzqhHp3nQ171yGEVQtipJN-N5Xi6_7JEW_HlvuvH1xbsbBlKwEcXfb6Ezf7b9fKJSM-hyw7dZji0qdMVPveYJ/w640-h450/Fulldry_120tons.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p> </p><p>The second<b> SpaceX Starship Integrated Test Flight</b> initially launched successfully on November 18. The spacecraft separated succesfully from the first stage (which however violently disintegrated almost immediately after this). However, at 148 km altitude just before engine shutdown and coasting phase commencement, something went wrong and the spacecraft's auto-destruction mechanism destroyed the spacecraft.</p><p>I estimate the point of destruction to be <b>in the middle of the Gulf or Mexico</b>, near 25.0 N 88.9 W, although it could perhaps be slightly more downrange than that, closer to Cuba and Florida.</p><p>The question then popped up: <b>how far downrange from the destruction point would any remaining debris end up?</b> The answer to that question strongly depends on amongst others the speed upon destruction, and the sizes and masses of any debris. </p><p><b>The map in top of this post gives an indication</b> based on a somewhat simplistic modelling attempt, further discussed below.<br /></p><p>After some initial educated guesses, I decided to investigate the issue further using a simple model in <a href="https://sourceforge.net/projects/gmat/" target="_blank">GMAT</a> (the <i>General Mission Analysis Tool</i>). Live-feed data shown in the webcast from just before telemetry contact was lost indicated a speed of about 6.7 km/s, at 148 km altitude.</p><p>Using these base values and my estimated location for the point of destruction, I modelled the resulting vector in GMAT, using the MSISE90 model atmosphere that is part of GMAT. <b>I modelled results for a number of masses</b>, ranging from 0.1 kg to 50 kg, and with a fixed drag surface of 1 m<sup>2</sup> for each fragment irrespective of mass. This is not very realistic by the way, but sufficient for a general idea nevertheless.</p><p>Another deviation from reality is that there was no further mass loss (e.g. because of ablation upon reentry) of the debris pieces in the model. So, this is a bit a case of a proverbial "spherical cow reentering" (but not in a vacuum: the MSISE90 model atmosphere was used to model atmospheric drag).</p><p>Nevertheless, this academic exercise does give a rough idea of where surviving debris might have ended up: likely <b>some 1500 km downrange from the point of destruction</b>, near the southeastern Bahamas, and north of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. see the map in top of this post, depicting the model results.</p><p>(<i>I thank Ian Benecken, Scott Manley and Jonathan McDowell for initial discussions and suggestions on twitter. Any mistakes are solely mine</i>)</p><p><b>UPDATES:</b></p><p>This NOAA weather radar image below by Kenneth Howard (source <a href="https://x.com/planet4589/status/1725917544114974995?s=20" target="_blank">this tweet by Jonathan McDowell</a>) shows a radar debris trail near Puerto Rico. There is also video footage from Puerto Rico of what looks to be a large Starship remnant reentering and breaking up, <a href="https://x.com/eliassob/status/1725871782186381474?s=20" target="_blank">see this tweet</a>. This is some 800 km further downrange than the model results, and probably caused by a sizable part of Starship (i.e. considerably larger and heavier than the debris pieces I modelled) disintegrating upon atmospheric reentry.<br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy8YUyhh9L6FxvkHsLbGPbKJJgfOdYgL1uaNKDm98H25yVySWJPy60FZYIa3H6CdHs_RUJWKnEzI7tXU2qbr27ETXcKcqiWjJSkwOfE1zBdwXghRfLdyJciBcuNKdTF8BSO3_lbJwjxRZFVy_2zzFL_A8RXlMg-tMnq0Qtco9GcqauCPMGFvRg/s1826/Starship_reentry.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1244" data-original-width="1826" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy8YUyhh9L6FxvkHsLbGPbKJJgfOdYgL1uaNKDm98H25yVySWJPy60FZYIa3H6CdHs_RUJWKnEzI7tXU2qbr27ETXcKcqiWjJSkwOfE1zBdwXghRfLdyJciBcuNKdTF8BSO3_lbJwjxRZFVy_2zzFL_A8RXlMg-tMnq0Qtco9GcqauCPMGFvRg/w640-h436/Starship_reentry.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>I modelled an intact Starship upper stage (120 tons dry mass, 63.6 m<sup>2</sup>drag surface) for two initial speeds at the "disintegration" point: 6.7 km./s and 7.0 km/s. </p><p>The latter value brings it close to where the weather radar depicts the debris trail. This could implicate it was largely intact untill it broke up in the upper atmosphere north of Puerto Rico:<br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5NjJ5vaglRn_hcRn-0nomz87vGbu5iqvrG4jy3kKEpxNPEcljucEkPauenaI5WvgMQHGmCa0-KoJXC4lX25JelZhOGVxVASOlzqhHp3nQ171yGEVQtipJN-N5Xi6_7JEW_HlvuvH1xbsbBlKwEcXfb6Ezf7b9fKJSM-hyw7dZji0qdMVPveYJ/s1611/Fulldry_120tons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1131" data-original-width="1611" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5NjJ5vaglRn_hcRn-0nomz87vGbu5iqvrG4jy3kKEpxNPEcljucEkPauenaI5WvgMQHGmCa0-KoJXC4lX25JelZhOGVxVASOlzqhHp3nQ171yGEVQtipJN-N5Xi6_7JEW_HlvuvH1xbsbBlKwEcXfb6Ezf7b9fKJSM-hyw7dZji0qdMVPveYJ/w640-h450/Fulldry_120tons.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-39636966881266808582023-11-16T12:18:00.020+01:002023-11-18T18:24:08.150+01:00New Starship launch attempt on November 17 approved by FAA [updated]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPvRfueAMkL_T0znIq34hbb1vXJ94Rrbj73MBTvjRLGRixcTavRDkt-JV-fBZzN7b_YINr2PhNRef3-ceG1jJNykPIbApBUkPlkUDab0F-qU7f35BgkeQrT6kCS5LjKs_tePcHZ9DcuDuhMs10HNzq5000R48a02OcjuZROkuoMNjEbwACe_yF/s1565/Starship_17nov2023_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1081" data-original-width="1565" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPvRfueAMkL_T0znIq34hbb1vXJ94Rrbj73MBTvjRLGRixcTavRDkt-JV-fBZzN7b_YINr2PhNRef3-ceG1jJNykPIbApBUkPlkUDab0F-qU7f35BgkeQrT6kCS5LjKs_tePcHZ9DcuDuhMs10HNzq5000R48a02OcjuZROkuoMNjEbwACe_yF/w640-h442/Starship_17nov2023_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p>The FAA <a href="https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship" target="_blank">has issued SpaceX with a licence</a> this week to try <b>a new Starship launch attempt</b>. </p><p>That attempt <strike>is now scheduled for <b>17 November</b></strike> was initially scheduled for 17 November, but postponed, due to necessary repairs on a grid fin attenuator, to <b>18 November</b>, with <b>the window opening at 13:00 UTC</b> and running to 15:39 UTC. Back-up dates are Nov 18 to 20.<br /></p><p>The test flight is similar to the <a href="https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/" target="_blank">previous failed one</a> from April 20: <b>launch is from Starbase</b> (Boca Chica) in Texas into a <b>26.4 degrees inclined orbit with apogee at 235 km</b>, splashdown is just short of one revolution to the <b>NE of Kauai</b>, Hawaii, 1.5 hours after launch. One can debate the semantics on whether the launch is orbital or suborbital.<br /></p><p>The map above shows the flight path and the hazard zones from <a href="https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings" target="_blank">Navigational Warnings</a> <i>NAVAREA IV 1322/23</i> and <i>HYDROPAC 3578/23</i> (the text of these warnings is given below)<br /><br />Most of the flight is over Ocean and <b>chances of sighting the spacecraft while on orbit are slim</b>: passes over land are <b>either in daylight, </b>or<b> with the Starship spacecraft in earth shadow</b> (the latter is the case for e.g. Australia and Indonesia). </p><p>On <b>Kauai and Oahu</b> in the Hawaii islands,<b> the reentry fireball might be seen</b> in the northern sky, if Starship gets that far.<br /></p><p>This is my estimate for the approximate orbit: <br /></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">STARSHIP for launch on 18 Nov 2023 13:00:00 UTC<br />1 70000U 23999A 23322.54166667 .00000000 00000-0 00000-0 0 05<br />2 70000 026.3975 054.9842 0064682 110.9574 322.9851 16.30015116 00</span><br /></p><p></p><p>These are the relevant Navigational Warnings issued:<br /><br /><span style="font-family: courier;">132050Z NOV 23<br />NAVAREA IV 1322/23(11,28).<br />GULF OF MEXICO.<br />TEXAS.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING<br /> AND SPACE DEBRIS 1300Z TO 1539Z DAILY 17, 19 <br /> AND 20 NOV AND 181300Z TO 181359Z NOV <br /> IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 25-51.00N 096-46.00W, 25-48.00N 096-14.00W,<br /> 25-40.00N 095-03.00W, 25-21.00N 093-15.00W,<br /> 25-26.00N 092-48.00W, 25-58.00N 092-47.00W,<br /> 26-04.00N 093-18.00W, 26-01.00N 094-13.00W,<br /> 26-00.00N 094-48.00W, 26-03.00N 095-43.00W,<br /> 26-06.00N 096-45.00W, 26-07.00N 096-57.00W,<br /> 26-03.00N 097-07.00W, 26-02.00N 097-12.00W,<br /> 25-57.00N 097-12.00W, 25-52.00N 097-01.00W.<br />2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1309/23.<br />3. CANCEL THIS MSG 201639Z NOV 23<br /><br />132000Z NOV 23<br />HYDROPAC 3578/23(19,81,83).<br />NORTH PACIFIC.<br />HAWAII TO MARSHALL ISLANDS.<br />DNC 12, DNC 13.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1410Z TO 1720Z DAILY <br /> 17, 19 AND 20 NOV AND 181410Z TO 181540Z NOV:<br /> A. ROCKET LAUNCHING IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 14-26.00N 172-39.00E, 12-55.00N 169-45.00E,<br /> 11-44.00N 167-39.00E, 11-27.00N 167-49.00E,<br /> 11-52.00N 168-58.00E, 12-48.00N 171-10.00E,<br /> 14-29.00N 175-20.00E, 15-24.00N 177-41.00E,<br /> 16-20.00N 179-40.00W, 17-42.00N 175-13.00W,<br /> 19-35.00N 168-59.00W, 21-01.00N 164-29.00W,<br /> 22-32.00N 160-00.00W, 23-35.00N 156-29.00W,<br /> 24-00.00N 155-28.00W, 24-31.00N 155-39.00W,<br /> 24-14.00N 157-43.00W, 23-26.00N 161-55.00W,<br /> 22-44.00N 165-15.00W, 21-54.00N 167-59.00W,<br /> 20-57.00N 170-54.00W, 19-55.00N 173-55.00W,<br /> 19-03.00N 176-19.00W, 17-39.00N 179-59.00E,<br /> 16-13.00N 176-31.00E, 15-36.00N 175-03.00E.<br /> B. SPACE DEBRIS IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 24-02.64N 157-33.72W, 24-08.82N 157-02.82W,<br /> 23-32.16N 156-53.28W, 23-25.80N 157-25.56W.<br />2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 3550/23.<br />3. CANCEL THIS MSG 201820Z NOV 23.</span><br /><br /></p><p>Let's see whether Starship will reach orbit this time.</p><p> </p><p><b>UPDATE:</b></p><p><b> </b> <br />Starhip separated succesfully from the first stage this time (which violently disintegrated directly after separation), but <b>Starship's auto-destruction mechanism destroyed the spacecraft</b> just before engine shutdown and orbit insertion, at an altitude of about 148 km.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-30071787142079271742023-11-09T17:14:00.006+01:002023-12-03T15:37:52.992+01:00Boldly going where no spaceplane has gone before? New X-37B mission OTV 7 to launch in December<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglc9Fd2jp5QLPSDm20cWDnJIcQW3wBI7fl87qvuL86WdWer_jWUsqtQtFUcce8U9xOw30HOg5QZvFZEUdjOG1R617_ky9RjLCkfnSziBuK7Vyj0ql8j7oGjyBbF3zh5CpgIa78ERh0X00aUrxjpLQJBvNSZPraid6czLbafFVbUGqxLlpl0Mfj/s1661/X37B_OTV6.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="1661" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglc9Fd2jp5QLPSDm20cWDnJIcQW3wBI7fl87qvuL86WdWer_jWUsqtQtFUcce8U9xOw30HOg5QZvFZEUdjOG1R617_ky9RjLCkfnSziBuK7Vyj0ql8j7oGjyBbF3zh5CpgIa78ERh0X00aUrxjpLQJBvNSZPraid6czLbafFVbUGqxLlpl0Mfj/w640-h360/X37B_OTV6.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>X-37B OTV 6 after landing in November 2022 (image: US Air Force)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><p>The US Air Force <i>Rapid Capabilities Office</i> <a href="https://www.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3583347/department-of-the-air-force-scheduled-to-launch-seventh-x-37b-mission/" target="_blank">has announced</a> that the <b>7th mission (OTV 7)</b> of its robotic <b>X-37B Spaceplane</b> will launch, as <b>USSF-52</b>, on 7 <b>December</b> 2023.</p><p>The launch will be done from Kennedy Space Center in Florida by SpaceX, using a <b>Falcon Heavy</b>. That is interesting, as it is a <b>surprisingly heavy</b> rocket for this launch: SpaceX has launched an X-37B mission before (OTV 5 in 2017) but using a more modest 'normal' <i>Falcon 9</i> at that time. So why a <i>Falcon Heavy</i> this time?<br /></p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIcQpPzk4DpX2J91wwt0VICqtljPG5nW1SVX9lwTF4sjO15lSrDIopWLtflLMBv-UxwtmP_SNSfjGgzORAFxWbzU95uucDJ-3DkMzSHrtRNEgbHCGi1uBYeDq83_T-YwsfMMN08fHg8-8etS8f23GmEdHbL_nxTxDOSJ4RF9jM-rWZQgVKc1Z2/s1500/OTV5_X37B_s20180421_OTV5_0002.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="1500" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIcQpPzk4DpX2J91wwt0VICqtljPG5nW1SVX9lwTF4sjO15lSrDIopWLtflLMBv-UxwtmP_SNSfjGgzORAFxWbzU95uucDJ-3DkMzSHrtRNEgbHCGi1uBYeDq83_T-YwsfMMN08fHg8-8etS8f23GmEdHbL_nxTxDOSJ4RF9jM-rWZQgVKc1Z2/w640-h448/OTV5_X37B_s20180421_OTV5_0002.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>X-37B OTV 5 pass photographed by the author on 21 April 2018. Click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>In the Air Force announcement, it is stated that the upcoming OTV 7 mission will be <b>"<i>operating the reusable spaceplane in new orbital regimes</i>"</b>. That is an interesting phrase in combination with the unusually heavy launch vehicle chosen.</p><p><b>It might imply that this mission will go to a much higher orbit</b>. Indeed, <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/in-a-surprise-move-the-militarys-spaceplane-will-launch-on-falcon-heavy/" target="_blank">this article</a> in <i>Ars Technica</i> mentions a <a href="https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43266.msg1728040#msg1728040" target="_blank">5-year-old procurement document</a> which mentions a 27-degree inclined, 35188 x185 km <b>GTO</b> reference orbit, perhaps implying a mission to GEO (!) or maybe into a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO). That would certainly be 'boldly going where no spaceplane has gone before'! If they would launch to GEO and then bring it back, that certainly would be no mean feat.<br /></p><p>This will be an interesting mission to track. We will know more when, early December probably, the Navigational Warnings for the launch appear, as these might provide some clues as to the orbit launched into.</p><p><b>Note added 3 December 2023:</b><br /><br />The Air Force announcement mentions that the OTV 7 mission includes "<i>experimenting with space domain awareness technologies</i>". I wonder whether, if it is going to geosynchronous orbit, it will test the Silent Barker satellites (launched last September) by functioning as a mock-target.<br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-72427858460355600312023-11-09T12:58:00.003+01:002023-11-09T12:59:40.958+01:00Imaging Navigation Satellites<p>All of us have used <b>Navigation Satellites</b>, whether you realise it or not. Our modern western world can no longer function well without them. But it is a challenge to actually see them in the sky. In <b>Medium Earth Orbit</b> (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medium_Earth_orbit" target="_blank">MEO</a>) at altitudes of ~20 000 km, they stay faint.</p><p><b>Four large constellations</b> of Navigation satellites currently exist. The best known is the US <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System" target="_blank"><b>GPS</b></a> system (aka NAVSTAR). But there is also the European <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_navigation)" target="_blank"><b>GALILEO</b></a> system; the Chinese <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BeiDou" target="_blank"><b>BEIDOU</b></a> system; and the Russian <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS" target="_blank"><b>GLONASS</b></a> system. Together, they are often referred to as the <i>Global Navigation Satellite System</i> (<b>GNSS</b>).</p><p>In the evening of 6 November 2023, when the sky over Leiden was very clear, I by chance imaged examples of all four systems, largely within the same small part of the sky, while surveying for HEO objects. Here are some images, one each for each GNSS system (the images were made with a ZWO ASI 6200MM PRO camera and 1.2/85 mm lens, 10-second exposures):</p><p> </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA4RJ1VsphYO4cCMHYQ3-ekfwgWtz6y6OMLGuNpN_AHdmYOzogTRGpfKWzayuVwFQueMnNjBygd8QgJeKoaKhExCIAJ6LNBq4BE8eBJR8rv9CAlwq_krl4oD4VUvShV_AIAcaGN55a9bmnStkjeLUkNP31lQhFSEii-2IF33FEKUXOfQPMlcL6/s1174/NAVSTAR73_GPS_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225347.644UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1174" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA4RJ1VsphYO4cCMHYQ3-ekfwgWtz6y6OMLGuNpN_AHdmYOzogTRGpfKWzayuVwFQueMnNjBygd8QgJeKoaKhExCIAJ6LNBq4BE8eBJR8rv9CAlwq_krl4oD4VUvShV_AIAcaGN55a9bmnStkjeLUkNP31lQhFSEii-2IF33FEKUXOfQPMlcL6/w640-h468/NAVSTAR73_GPS_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225347.644UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>NAVSTAR 73 (GPS)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXqFKgC9jQ3F8DSq8wGApNUDhd1a7yQxZXstte4HT3UWwkLUXpg4Tph-Wuo0zuyVYdQHP0O_Oxf23PeiaTuN0HDDLUtqt54OdD5Ti61jistX_4JMtVYFw-zCKmKUs5chs-qixmDqkFqmzWYFe44kmtj-7BZC5e0903KlJU4Pl6vr569BJDzUmZ/s1174/GALILEO21_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225347.644UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1174" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXqFKgC9jQ3F8DSq8wGApNUDhd1a7yQxZXstte4HT3UWwkLUXpg4Tph-Wuo0zuyVYdQHP0O_Oxf23PeiaTuN0HDDLUtqt54OdD5Ti61jistX_4JMtVYFw-zCKmKUs5chs-qixmDqkFqmzWYFe44kmtj-7BZC5e0903KlJU4Pl6vr569BJDzUmZ/w640-h468/GALILEO21_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225347.644UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>GALILEO 21</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSEQ47WpTTsRRAyaLnl9t4CunWVIyY4kR_tQCfkh_yZ1Eco6yFKINnzEHGszxPYwdnUObocx0c418HZ4ZLmUA7oyeHtJgy8sMuuueHuf66v-T0aT-MeiqYmBjtlZ-EBGVTb_4gireXDLC3TugdUfOMV_ZtG-MN_lNh7822dPEToxNZe48nSQUM/s1174/Beidou_3M7_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225143.996UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1174" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSEQ47WpTTsRRAyaLnl9t4CunWVIyY4kR_tQCfkh_yZ1Eco6yFKINnzEHGszxPYwdnUObocx0c418HZ4ZLmUA7oyeHtJgy8sMuuueHuf66v-T0aT-MeiqYmBjtlZ-EBGVTb_4gireXDLC3TugdUfOMV_ZtG-MN_lNh7822dPEToxNZe48nSQUM/w640-h468/Beidou_3M7_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_225143.996UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>BEIDOU 3M7</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI0cvU4KtpqYrrdItmQoABDr6xv30YQqsalCwNKWBviLWqcb0j2QlUG4YXJXWIq7221n7Hu0CpSR5CFWC2cuKaJyK7EMfBjVyeTZmbfIXSI4abxNuNbyA-7fE7r33ttQn2a0Tm81XlkOgP2HHYGEUOYlKNfVGVvBGOzvMXizjWlNhdRZhREPOO/s1174/KOSMOS2501_GLONASS_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_224857.493UTC.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1174" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI0cvU4KtpqYrrdItmQoABDr6xv30YQqsalCwNKWBviLWqcb0j2QlUG4YXJXWIq7221n7Hu0CpSR5CFWC2cuKaJyK7EMfBjVyeTZmbfIXSI4abxNuNbyA-7fE7r33ttQn2a0Tm81XlkOgP2HHYGEUOYlKNfVGVvBGOzvMXizjWlNhdRZhREPOO/w640-h468/KOSMOS2501_GLONASS_10sec_Bin1_6NOV2023_224857.493UTC.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>KOSMOS 2501 (GLONASS)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-24669088788189251632023-11-05T15:30:00.070+01:002023-11-14T13:55:51.719+01:00Delfi-C3 reentry forecast updates (periodically updated post)<p></p><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi3JLRZUluviq2wjwEnbjYEPoYRe5_cklOM5ThIHb0Ip-NRHWocX9c4lIl6ViBLrwd2vNIEnmZFqBja1uuLs4MtUFqUwBzPjbz_Gv_IRyHQFF4-x9f7MRzL5J2jY_mZqVEYd2796D-3k-1raYuHzPTkEpKbZbCpbj7eOMkbcmcNjU-Rl-QUZQb/s1500/reentry_weergave.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="1500" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi3JLRZUluviq2wjwEnbjYEPoYRe5_cklOM5ThIHb0Ip-NRHWocX9c4lIl6ViBLrwd2vNIEnmZFqBja1uuLs4MtUFqUwBzPjbz_Gv_IRyHQFF4-x9f7MRzL5J2jY_mZqVEYd2796D-3k-1raYuHzPTkEpKbZbCpbj7eOMkbcmcNjU-Rl-QUZQb/w640-h394/reentry_weergave.jpg" width="640" /></a></b></div><b><br /> <br /></b><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>[</b><i><b> Post last updated: 14 Nov 2023 12:45 UTC </b></i><b>]</b><br /></p><p></p><p>In <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/10/a-goodbye-to-delfi-c3.html" target="_blank">my October 25 blogpost</a> I presented imagery of the iconic 3U cubesat<b> Delfi-C<sup>3</sup></b> (2008-021G) taken by my tracking camera. I also provided a <b>reentry forecast</b> in that post, that I updated several times.That reentry is currently (mid November 2023) very near.<br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">I am now consolidating the reentry forecasts in this current, periodically updated blogpost.</span></b></p><p>While late October the reentry forecast was still shifting to a later
date with each orbit update, that shift is now flattening out, but the
forecast is still fluctuating. </p><p>A geomagnetic storm that caused aurora at
middle latitudes on Nov 5/6 has had a clear effect in speeding up
orbital decay (the 'dip' can be seen in the digrams below). Over the weekend 11-12 November, solar activity was more mild than forecast, making the reentry forecast slowly shift to a later time with each orbital update.<br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>My current "aftercast"</b>, based on a mid-November 13 orbit modelled in <a href="https://software.nasa.gov/software/GSC-17177-1" target="_blank">GMAT</a>, is <b>reentry on 13 November 2023, nominally near 20:39h UTC +- 1.5 hours</b> (please note the uncertainty interval!), i.e. between 19 - 22 UTC (and likely between 20 - 21 UTC)<br /></span></p><p>A SatEvo/SatAna analysis results in a very similar, if slightly earlier, time (nominally 19:34 +- 1.5h UTC). I do not expect it survived to November 14.</p><p>The orbit determination on which these 'aftercasts' are based, is from about 3 orbital revolutions <i>before</i> the forecasted reentry moment. This orbit can be of bad quality, as in these final stages, orbit determination is tricky.<br /></p><p>Here
is how the reentry forecast has been developing so far (note the sudden
downward developing trend due to the Nov 5/6 geomagnetic storm):</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxLy76MFYnjBDJMb0Pw9V4P8vynh9G69MXX7ZJUzvyyrAPPNQYJoF7Ca1bEDtWNWakCeqomGTrIgNF66dnlOg8dZFINQzJQCG-gjD5q6kNckDReBEqepMUxFOrOCRYRplnJ0JCdf3RxsyJ6TUY-sMAROiDjnUDjmL9iL5rCXAFTx2o_JgV7bpD/s1270/Delfi_C3_Reentrypred_60prdrag.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1270" data-original-width="1023" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxLy76MFYnjBDJMb0Pw9V4P8vynh9G69MXX7ZJUzvyyrAPPNQYJoF7Ca1bEDtWNWakCeqomGTrIgNF66dnlOg8dZFINQzJQCG-gjD5q6kNckDReBEqepMUxFOrOCRYRplnJ0JCdf3RxsyJ6TUY-sMAROiDjnUDjmL9iL5rCXAFTx2o_JgV7bpD/w516-h640/Delfi_C3_Reentrypred_60prdrag.png" width="516" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagrams to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> </p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>This is probably the last reentry forecast update (or rather "aftercast" by now), as I do not expect new orbital elements to be released between this update and the reentry</b> <br /></span></p><p>(Note: <i>forecast data in tabular form are at the bottom of this post</i>)</p><p><b>This is the Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> ground-track over the current uncertainty interval</b> (spanning two orbital revolutions) in the forecast:</p><p> </p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLKgxbN3XeGTo7CgZW37z1FgLRN0XIL6URi36bZh8BL1-JmqDV3L8TzjeiIQkHAvgANb_H3KaPLlRv_5C2Po2GwUZP2mlBXHCRY9yiVjwpL2VApqFnvpaDIylmh-TEYdlmpS0LrdFInVDSE62XR-yYwRZs_lLW-hLg_wvIvRU98fYQz3Rqq8AO/s1674/DelfiC3_reentrymap.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1674" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLKgxbN3XeGTo7CgZW37z1FgLRN0XIL6URi36bZh8BL1-JmqDV3L8TzjeiIQkHAvgANb_H3KaPLlRv_5C2Po2GwUZP2mlBXHCRY9yiVjwpL2VApqFnvpaDIylmh-TEYdlmpS0LrdFInVDSE62XR-yYwRZs_lLW-hLg_wvIvRU98fYQz3Rqq8AO/w640-h328/DelfiC3_reentrymap.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>These reentry predictions are based on a tumbling satellite with, due to the
tumbling, an average drag surface of about 60% of the maximum drag
surface. Previous experience with modelling reentries in GMAT has shown
this to be a reasonable value for a tumbling object. </p><p>What makes these reentry forecasts challenging, and creates the large uncertainties in the reentry position is a combination of things. One is the, even at short timescales, varying solar activity and it's influence on the upper atmosphere, which cannot be well predicted or captured by the model. Second, during the last orbits just before reentry, all kind of gas flow mechanisms around the spacecraft are taking place, which alter tyhe cdrag it expriences. Moreover, in this final stage where the spacecraft meets a more thicker resistance of the upper atmosphere, it sometimes auto-stabilises itself in a least-drag orientation, prolonging survival slightly. Last but not least: in the last moments of the spacecraft's life, when it is in a very low, fast changing orbit, orbit determination becomes difficult, affecting tehe quality of the last orbital elements available for the forecast.<br /></p><p>I
do <b>not</b> expect a TIP to be issued for this object. TLE updates might end a few hours before the
actual reentry, after which CSpOC issues an 'administrative decay'.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><b>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup></b> <b>'s orbit</b> <b>had decayed to below 187 x 177 km</b> by mid 13 Nov 2023, and the cubesat was coming down increasingly fast, as can be seen in the diagrams below (the orbit was <b>dropping by almost 100 km/day</b> mid 13 Nov 2023):</p><p> </p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEBxn7lJuy_qwq0F_ZxRq4W6hp3fbAnC0_XmolSkXwvpwLppXAm-o10ZimKV4DMufceyl6Y_dsYnwkj0B0mu5eHMr_c7HYd89_0MirHf76rmiHO7tuFpLpEKndQpiROCK5oNLAIugGTHb1SUV3eqkMyG1lPEuuviN_Pcyu4imtkbFyus21Tl0M/s1120/Delfi_C3_orbev.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1120" data-original-width="893" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEBxn7lJuy_qwq0F_ZxRq4W6hp3fbAnC0_XmolSkXwvpwLppXAm-o10ZimKV4DMufceyl6Y_dsYnwkj0B0mu5eHMr_c7HYd89_0MirHf76rmiHO7tuFpLpEKndQpiROCK5oNLAIugGTHb1SUV3eqkMyG1lPEuuviN_Pcyu4imtkbFyus21Tl0M/w510-h640/Delfi_C3_orbev.png" width="510" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagrams to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKceslWJDin5Dhjo2LaO-qX8YBZz8Z6WaHWes2VoJDC4wBUhk1_cNbGyVY_qHRhsPQNwhdslH1Qjci8vPqmkWZZriAj1fKKdVNDIGbE5hNn-uUtVk1DnvtN61F21RItZvxBueeOApYX_3359mifIs2jF5dytnbbHX37whNi1v2l0n5p8N70RzT/s893/Delfi_C3_orbevrate.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="893" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKceslWJDin5Dhjo2LaO-qX8YBZz8Z6WaHWes2VoJDC4wBUhk1_cNbGyVY_qHRhsPQNwhdslH1Qjci8vPqmkWZZriAj1fKKdVNDIGbE5hNn-uUtVk1DnvtN61F21RItZvxBueeOApYX_3359mifIs2jF5dytnbbHX37whNi1v2l0n5p8N70RzT/w640-h402/Delfi_C3_orbevrate.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Note that Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> is very small and lightweight (2.2 kg and 30 x 10 x 10 cm) and the <b>reentry will have been completely harmless</b>. The friction with the molecules in the atmosphere will heat up the spacecraft during its final moments, untill it burns up completely, at altitudes above 50 km. The current ground-track where it can come down, is almost completely over Ocean.<br /></p><p><a href="https://x.com/DelfiSpace/status/1720191243349536960?s=20" target="_blank">The operators of Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> have put out a call to radio amateurs</a> to try to receive and decode telemetry from the cubesat. <a href="https://t.co/tPzGauU0kC" target="_blank">Software to decode is provided here</a>. The goal is to try to follow Delfi-C<sup>3 </sup>and get telemetry as close to reentry as possible.</p><p><b>Note that Delfi-C<sup>3 </sup>only sends telemetry when it is in sunlight</b>, and not continuously as after 15 years the system is showing issues. The frequency is 145.870 MHz, it is sending 1200 <span aria-describedby="qtip-0" class="mw-lingo-tooltip" data-hasqtip="true"><span class="mw-lingo-tooltip-abbr">Bd</span></span> <span aria-describedby="qtip-1" class="mw-lingo-tooltip" data-hasqtip="true"><span class="mw-lingo-tooltip-abbr">BPSK</span></span> packages. <a href="https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Delfi-C3_Telemetry" target="_blank">See also here</a>. </p><p>[<b>EDIT</b>: as off 11 november, the cubesat seems to have shifted to a <b>backup frequency</b> near <b>145.934 MHz</b>, as can be seen in this spectogram from my detection in the morning of November 11. The 145.870 MHz frequency is also still intermittently active. So pay attention to both frequencies]<br /><br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpwrnzY2WV2xUY-4Krs_agIWWkcGFBvGxdld3DTD7cplANb3BynZuFc2zkQIf81-dC3_ak62qZDmJF6Wtg2-rjv91s6pnIUTcNEWBPNPW-MbPWvtezIox6N5RJw3ScCOnaa_hIRTl-tztHl-3hyphenhyphenBOEggVnymkT0EOpeNiAjEXRgNG5akafj2E-/s1100/delfi_C3_11nov2023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1100" data-original-width="876" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpwrnzY2WV2xUY-4Krs_agIWWkcGFBvGxdld3DTD7cplANb3BynZuFc2zkQIf81-dC3_ak62qZDmJF6Wtg2-rjv91s6pnIUTcNEWBPNPW-MbPWvtezIox6N5RJw3ScCOnaa_hIRTl-tztHl-3hyphenhyphenBOEggVnymkT0EOpeNiAjEXRgNG5akafj2E-/w510-h640/delfi_C3_11nov2023.jpg" width="510" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click spectrogram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>[end of edit]<br /></p><p>On the morning of Nov 8, during the 7:43 UTC pass, <b>I received thise radio signal of Delfi-C3 from Leiden</b>, the Netherlands (but could not decode the signal), clearly a bit early on the then available TLE:<br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzVWXoFDw6fBj6hWnzhkJ6L7X5yMNDktdu08eE2TaI0Mt-w3RjYGN5n3dkcx_PaPn1myuiLHIk8lledVuq20MCQhCEX6LetEGbp24i6NGWKi2-AA6fgqsFs9PQ1h5C_L50Y2tQQUJtvdAsPwXoNi7A-99XgusR3pxhLJ6xp7g_Nc86-7zXWA3J/s1011/delfi_C3_signaal_8nov2023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1011" data-original-width="984" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzVWXoFDw6fBj6hWnzhkJ6L7X5yMNDktdu08eE2TaI0Mt-w3RjYGN5n3dkcx_PaPn1myuiLHIk8lledVuq20MCQhCEX6LetEGbp24i6NGWKi2-AA6fgqsFs9PQ1h5C_L50Y2tQQUJtvdAsPwXoNi7A-99XgusR3pxhLJ6xp7g_Nc86-7zXWA3J/w622-h640/delfi_C3_signaal_8nov2023.jpg" width="622" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click image to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><p>The "stepped" effect is due to attempts to correct the Doppler shift. That Doppler shift (the "s"-shape in frequency due to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doppler_effect" target="_blank">Doppler effect</a> in the signal) can be very nicely seen in this spectogram from the same pass <b>as received by my colleagues at Delft University of Technology</b> (image courtesy Bart Root, TU Delft):<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsG3RdbdGat4jPKH3phbxERIgyG1Adg4jk1FmI_9jBmwKJweg8xFgNGJbBvnkJr_nojL5byFvXTdr8H-4l5GcexQE7CQ565ZgPltDMIp90Ma9KtGZm-QPJ9aKnIG6ITGVfK-emm56Vx0ncthBaW2e-UAgpuIcdttkeyiPZYmPib1EY7iKQdLDA/s2000/DelfiC3_curveBart_8nov.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="2000" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsG3RdbdGat4jPKH3phbxERIgyG1Adg4jk1FmI_9jBmwKJweg8xFgNGJbBvnkJr_nojL5byFvXTdr8H-4l5GcexQE7CQ565ZgPltDMIp90Ma9KtGZm-QPJ9aKnIG6ITGVfK-emm56Vx0ncthBaW2e-UAgpuIcdttkeyiPZYmPib1EY7iKQdLDA/w640-h512/DelfiC3_curveBart_8nov.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click image to enlarge. Image courtesy Bart Root, TU Delft</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><p>Radio signals from the cubesat were also received by me and the TU Delft station on later dates, most recently in the morning of November 13th during the 7:24 UTC pass:<br /><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVpVV1cvvd-Cwawp3Iwp09aD8XdUMdP-vZdQgUhH-NTsb2F13o6FRBQdPUBQATA6TVv0I0wmsUXrPz3P_EZlXXa3YlZ3HZUChHj9872C44u_42_jexnJkAZ2xQQu373gED227cLGlcVLAsDFGhiKbnCWxinfgsu9cMrmABSKkrcDj8rUTsyeUG/s1100/delfi_C3_13nov2023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1100" data-original-width="739" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVpVV1cvvd-Cwawp3Iwp09aD8XdUMdP-vZdQgUhH-NTsb2F13o6FRBQdPUBQATA6TVv0I0wmsUXrPz3P_EZlXXa3YlZ3HZUChHj9872C44u_42_jexnJkAZ2xQQu373gED227cLGlcVLAsDFGhiKbnCWxinfgsu9cMrmABSKkrcDj8rUTsyeUG/w430-h640/delfi_C3_13nov2023.jpg" width="430" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Nov 13 ~7:24 UTC radio spectrogram from Leiden. Click image to enlarge<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> is a 3U cubesat developed and built at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, and launched 15 years ago, in 2008.<br /></p><p>More on Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> on <a href="https://www.tudelft.nl/lr/delfi-space/delfi-c3" target="_blank">the website of Delft Technical University</a>. There is also <a href="https://www.tudelft.nl/en/stories/articles/elderly-first-dutch-nanosatellite-celebrates-fifteenth-birthday" target="_blank">a nice background article on it's 15-year anniversary here</a>.</p><p>The last (and only!) <b>visual image</b> of <b>Delfi-C3 on-orbit</b>, taken by me on 24 October 2023 from Leiden, the Netherlands, using a WATEC 902H2 Supreme and Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens at 25 fps (image is a frame-stack of 16 frames: the faint trail lower right is Delfi-C3 moving through the field of view. See also <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/10/a-goodbye-to-delfi-c3.html" target="_blank">blogpost here</a> which also features some video footage):</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvBoVg_zh5fQRDbnIoka0nXI2d2qdD_7KMbIl0ckjD0e_JTaToJu_hb9QxSOjVwZYa9hHbrFro4NEJ5CQfI-GejdZWxPTY3t6J2pf2YvA8V2kbhMj5w_wj31aXGFNo1VMCeNjnhezBYi4GwUcLqT00OtQPPAg5LuIEYnkMlgDPWn5PgDCytb5/s704/DelfiC3_24okt2023_175800UTC_stackfr45_60_WATEC902H2S_Samyang2p0_135mm_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="704" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvBoVg_zh5fQRDbnIoka0nXI2d2qdD_7KMbIl0ckjD0e_JTaToJu_hb9QxSOjVwZYa9hHbrFro4NEJ5CQfI-GejdZWxPTY3t6J2pf2YvA8V2kbhMj5w_wj31aXGFNo1VMCeNjnhezBYi4GwUcLqT00OtQPPAg5LuIEYnkMlgDPWn5PgDCytb5/w640-h514/DelfiC3_24okt2023_175800UTC_stackfr45_60_WATEC902H2S_Samyang2p0_135mm_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a> <br /></p><p><b> </b></p><p><b>TABLE: Forecast development</b> in tabular form (<b>most recent one at bottom</b>).<br />All dates and times are in <b>UTC</b>. Quoted times are <i>nominal</i> times, <i>please take into account the uncertainty intervals</i> that go with them!</p><p><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>orbit date orbit epoch reentry forecast + uncertainty</b> <br />08 okt 2023 13:52 23281.57810544 05 nov 2023 02:23 ± 8.3 day<br />09 okt 2023 14:28 23282.60344413 05 nov 2023 08:17 ± 8.0 day<br />10 okt 2023 19:41 23283.82047902 05 nov 2023 11:00 ± 7.7 day<br />12 okt 2023 00:53 23285.03692402 05 nov 2023 20:20 ± 7.4 day<br />13 okt 2023 01:27 23286.06083878 06 nov 2023 18:43 ± 7.4 day<br />14 okt 2023 00:29 23287.02034889 06 nov 2023 18:53 ± 7.1 day<br />15 okt 2023 08:42 23288.36296159 07 nov 2023 00:59 ± 6.8 day<br />16 okt 2023 00:02 23289.00204702 07 nov 2023 04:44 ± 6.7 day<br />16 okt 2023 15:23 23289.64097529 08 nov 2023 02:01 ± 6.7 day<br />17 okt 2023 18:58 23290.79063916 08 nov 2023 12:14 ± 6.5 day<br />18 okt 2023 19:29 23291.81212343 08 nov 2023 21:43 ± 6.3 day<br />20 okt 2023 00:35 23293.02450124 09 nov 2023 16:03 ± 6.2 day<br />21 okt 2023 01:04 23294.04489630 09 nov 2023 19:49 ± 5.9 day<br />21 okt 2023 19:26 23294.80984121 09 nov 2023 22:19 ± 5.7 day<br />22 okt 2023 19:54 23295.82928392 09 nov 2023 23:43 ± 5.4 day<br />24 okt 2023 07:03 23297.29389307 10 nov 2023 23:54 ± 5.3 day<br />26 okt 2023 00:17 23299.01200402 11 nov 2023 11:29 ± 4.9 day<br />27 okt 2023 00:42 23300.02946319 11 nov 2023 12:23 ± 4.6 day<br />28 okt 2023 01:06 23301.04628230 11 nov 2023 16:02 ± 4.4 day<br />28 okt 2023 19:24 23301.80847586 11 nov 2023 18:46 ± 4.2 day<br />30 okt 2023 00:20 23303.01441157 12 nov 2023 09:54 ± 4.0 day<br />31 okt 2023 00:41 23304.02910990 12 nov 2023 13:04 ± 3.8 day<br />01 nov 2023 01:02 23305.04306068 12 nov 2023 17:28 ± 3.5 day<br />02 nov 2023 11:58 23306.49918974 12 nov 2023 17:44 ± 3.1 day<br />03 nov 2023 07:42 23307.32139835 12 nov 2023 23:36 ± 2.9 day<br />04 nov 2023 07:58 23308.33247480 12 nov 2023 19:20 ± 2.5 day<br />05 nov 2023 00:38 23309.02698061 12 nov 2023 21:03 ± 2.4 day<br />06 nov 2023 00:51 23310.03600547 12 nov 2023 05:15 ± 1.9 day<br />07 nov 2023 01:02 23311.04321962 12 nov 2023 09:23 ± 1.6 day<br />07 nov 2023 13:06 23311.54617034 12 nov 2023 14:38 ± 1.5 day<br />07 nov 2023 14:36 23311.60900895 12 nov 2023 14:25 ± 1.5 day<br />08 nov 2023 01:10 23312.04868443 12 nov 2023 15:48 ± 1.4 day<br />08 nov 2023 13:13 23312.55073768 12 nov 2023 19:28 ± 1.3 day<br />08 nov 2023 19:14 23312.80157938 12 nov 2023 20:14 ± 1.2 day<br />08 nov 2023 20:44 23312.86427030 12 nov 2023 20:32 ± 1.2 day<br />09 nov 2023 01:15 23313.05229412 12 nov 2023 21:16 ± 1.2 day<br />09 nov 2023 13:16 23313.55332040 12 nov 2023 20:49 ± 1.0 day<br />09 nov 2023 14:46 23313.61590941 12 nov 2023 20:54 ± 1.0 day<br />09 nov 2023 19:17 23313.80362555 12 nov 2023 21:54 ± 22.4 hr<br />10 nov 2023 01:17 23314.05377944 12 nov 2023 23:07 ± 20.9 hr<br />10 nov 2023 14:47 23314.61604116 13 nov 2023 01:14 ± 17.5 hr<br />10 nov 2023 20:46 23314.86565574 13 nov 2023 01:32 ± 15.8 hr<br />11 nov 2023 01:15 23315.05274319 13 nov 2023 02:37 ± 14.8 hr<br />11 nov 2023 13:13 23315.55109903 13 nov 2023 06:40 ± 12.4 hr<br />11 nov 2023 19:11 23315.79995400 13 nov 2023 08:42 ± 11.3 hr<br />12 nov 2023 01:09 23316.04856854 13 nov 2023 10:21 ± 10.0 hr<br />12 nov 2023 14:34 23316.60695182 13 nov 2023 14:53 ± 7.3 hr<br />13 nov 2023 00:57 23317.03998349 13 nov 2023 17:11 ± 4.9 hr<br />13 nov 2023 11:18 23317.47133062 13 nov 2023 19:55 ± 2.6 hr<br />13 nov 2023 12:47 23317.53274184 13 nov 2023 20:06 ± 2.2 hr</span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;"><b>FINAL 'aftercast':</b><br />13 nov 2023 15:53 23317.65534723 <b>13 nov 2023 20:39 ± 1.5 hr</b></span><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-13240219123162879282023-11-02T16:16:00.019+01:002023-11-18T23:07:18.869+01:00An upcoming French SLBM test in the Atlantic, ARRW, and a failed Minuteman test in the Pacific<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pWmjjfAwkqvE90O6BR-Aa3zvkXLxW8S0ywAXG-ChD0wbNj1zpyaLnNNIEu90aiRW3OA4xremMDJZ-rsTCjyNflacv_xspGYvv0X09n2HBKyQ7UHWg52fkkv5ELJTEHGyjLhyljQg4rFKuTYpViQIeWRtvCQ5gUBpcNR8uLmmco_s8mtHqh-g/s1675/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_comp28apr2021_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1148" data-original-width="1675" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pWmjjfAwkqvE90O6BR-Aa3zvkXLxW8S0ywAXG-ChD0wbNj1zpyaLnNNIEu90aiRW3OA4xremMDJZ-rsTCjyNflacv_xspGYvv0X09n2HBKyQ7UHWg52fkkv5ELJTEHGyjLhyljQg4rFKuTYpViQIeWRtvCQ5gUBpcNR8uLmmco_s8mtHqh-g/w640-h438/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_comp28apr2021_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC-FMnfpHb8NJyYZoDKmw6KKGrLSzYyxYaIkPoOSJpCqRldVu_wFecP3HzswYrU7jP2I7QjQQrloGy0fhBsNr0y_Sl-POgMQpNBg4eKSUXjknTwhN0BDOaRkciP_-8Jn0-QkVntAlZ9D6zM-4EENxmdJ19TPID6-Mn1cdiruDTeF9S-GJaydoX/s1150/NOAA19_apt_2NOV2023_090224UTC_MSA_composite_Ciaran.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="910" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC-FMnfpHb8NJyYZoDKmw6KKGrLSzYyxYaIkPoOSJpCqRldVu_wFecP3HzswYrU7jP2I7QjQQrloGy0fhBsNr0y_Sl-POgMQpNBg4eKSUXjknTwhN0BDOaRkciP_-8Jn0-QkVntAlZ9D6zM-4EENxmdJ19TPID6-Mn1cdiruDTeF9S-GJaydoX/w506-h640/NOAA19_apt_2NOV2023_090224UTC_MSA_composite_Ciaran.jpg" width="506" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click image to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>While strong Autumn storms and rainshowers (the image above is an APT image my radio received from NOAA 19 this morning, showing storm <i>Ciarán</i> over the Channel) are making satellite observations impossible, various<b> missile test activities </b>the past and upcoming weeks keep me occupied.</p><p>In <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/10/a-possible-missile-defense-test-from.html" target="_blank">a previous post</a> I wrote about a Missile Defense test, FTM-48 north of Hawaii on October 25, and indications for another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral (it is unknown whether the latter test happened: FTM-48 <a href="https://www.mda.mil/news/23news0004.html" target="_blank">reportedly was a success</a>).</p><p>In this post, I will write about <b>three other missile tests</b>. </p><p> </p><h3 style="text-align: left;">French M51 SLBM test <br /></h3><p>First, <b>an upcoming French M51 SLBM test</b> to be launched from <b>DGA Essais de missiles</b> near Biscarrosse on the southwest coast of France. Its trajectory is over the Gulf of Biscaye and northern Atlantic towards a target area some 830 km south of Saint-Pierre et Miquelon (two French islands in front of the Newfoundland coast). </p><p>Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROLANT 2484/23 and NAVAREA IV 1273/23 ) have appeared that indicate the test, with a window running from November 6 to December 1. Below is a map with the hazard zones for this test and the text of the Navigational Warnings:<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTY19na79P7KWxmm7ffaTV2GbQemYFLqHQyT45qvisvXG9S4O4k12bZSd9Kdphn2J8kKjWqEMGGpRV3sA3ClwOguI-RSKBrPHpxhGDS_a7HRPHf9nCX2CdlWPGuTwjn3gfRthrzSQZA8Nleypnef3cXoANPDb45Z8_2vFjTrTO7XUd53olSJe7/s1679/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1162" data-original-width="1679" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTY19na79P7KWxmm7ffaTV2GbQemYFLqHQyT45qvisvXG9S4O4k12bZSd9Kdphn2J8kKjWqEMGGpRV3sA3ClwOguI-RSKBrPHpxhGDS_a7HRPHf9nCX2CdlWPGuTwjn3gfRthrzSQZA8Nleypnef3cXoANPDb45Z8_2vFjTrTO7XUd53olSJe7/w640-h442/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">311957Z OCT 23<br />HYDROLANT 2484/23(36,37,38).<br />BAY OF BISCAY.<br />NORTH ATLANTIC.<br />FRANCE.<br />DNC 08.<br />1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z<br /> DAILY 06 NOV THRU 01 DEC<br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br /> A. 44-26.33N 001-15.67W, 44-28.00N 001-20.00W,<br /> 44-35.00N 001-27.75W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W,<br /> 44-23.50N 002-25.00W, 44-14.75N 001-35.75W,<br /> 44-17.25N 001-26.75W, 44-18.00N 001-17.00W.<br /> B. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 45-22.57N 006-11.45W,<br /> 45-05.33N 006-16.65W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W.<br /> C. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W,<br /> 44-23.50N 002-24.98W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W.<br /> D. 47-08.05N 014-18.15W, 47-20.18N 017-10.22W,<br /> 45-33.87N 017-23.13W, 45-22.12N 014-36.47W.<br /> E. 47-05.02N 029-54.25W, 46-58.67N 031-53.87W,<br /> 46-11.73N 031-47.78W, 46-17.98N 029-49.87W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.<br /><br /><br />020945Z NOV 23<br />NAVAREA IV 1273/23(14).<br />WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z DAILY <br /> 06 NOV THRU 01 DEC IN AREA WITHIN <br /> 80 MILES OF 39-21.36N 057-43.60W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.//</span></p><p>The indicated <b>range</b> for this test is<b> about 5100 km</b>, which is somewhat less than the test on 28 April 2021, as can be seen in this map
comparing the two tests:<span style="font-family: courier;"> <br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pWmjjfAwkqvE90O6BR-Aa3zvkXLxW8S0ywAXG-ChD0wbNj1zpyaLnNNIEu90aiRW3OA4xremMDJZ-rsTCjyNflacv_xspGYvv0X09n2HBKyQ7UHWg52fkkv5ELJTEHGyjLhyljQg4rFKuTYpViQIeWRtvCQ5gUBpcNR8uLmmco_s8mtHqh-g/s1675/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_comp28apr2021_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1148" data-original-width="1675" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6pWmjjfAwkqvE90O6BR-Aa3zvkXLxW8S0ywAXG-ChD0wbNj1zpyaLnNNIEu90aiRW3OA4xremMDJZ-rsTCjyNflacv_xspGYvv0X09n2HBKyQ7UHWg52fkkv5ELJTEHGyjLhyljQg4rFKuTYpViQIeWRtvCQ5gUBpcNR8uLmmco_s8mtHqh-g/w640-h438/Map_Fransetest_6Nov2023_comp28apr2021_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>The test involves a manoeuvre changing the heading of the missile somewhere after jettison of the third stage. The shorter range, and closer range to the splashdown zones of the stages, could indicate either a more loftet test or (more likely) a heavier payload.</p><p><b>UPDATE:</b></p><p>The Navigational Warnings have been re-issued for Nov 16 - Dec 1 and adding an additional time window (18:00-23:59 UTC):<br /><br /> <span style="font-family: courier;">161904Z NOV 23<br />HYDROLANT 2631/23(36,37,38).<br />BAY OF BISCAY.<br />NORTH ATLANTIC.<br />FRANCE.<br />DNC 08.<br />1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1200Z AND<br /> 1800Z TO 2359Z DAILY 16 NOV THRU 01 DEC<br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br />A. 44-18.00N 001-17.00W, 44-17.25N 001-26.75W,<br /> 44-14.75N 001-35.75W, 44-23.50N 002-25.00W,<br /> 44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-35.00N 001-27.75W,<br /> 44-28.00N 001-20.00W, 44-26.33N 001-15.67W.<br />B. 45-22.57N 006-11.45W, 45-05.33N 006-16.65W,<br /> 44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W.<br />C. 44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W,<br /> 44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-23.50N 002-24.98W.<br />D. 47-20.18N 017-10.22W, 45-33.87N 017-23.13W,<br /> 45-22.12N 014-36.47W, 47-08.05N 014-18.15W.<br />E. 46-58.67N 031-53.87W, 46-11.73N 031-47.78W,<br /> 46-17.98N 029-49.87W, 47-05.02N 029-54.25W.<br />2. CANCEL HYDROLANT 2628/23.<br />3. CANCEL THIS MSG 020100Z DEC 23.</span><br /></p><p><b>UPDATE 18 Nov 2023:</b></p><p>The SLBM test happened this evening, <b>18 Nov 2023, around 18:20 UTC</b>. Several spectacular images and video footage of illuminated exhaust cloluds were obtained from <a href="https://x.com/Thomasm52513617/status/1725997052885090620?s=20" target="_blank">France</a>, <a href="https://x.com/RedSpmn/status/1725964949267140927?s=20" target="_blank">Spain</a> and <a href="https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1725987950620455363?s=20" target="_blank">Italy</a>.<br /></p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">US AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic test <br /></h3><p>On the other side of the World, in the Northwest Pacific between California and Hawaii, another <b>AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic missile test</b> appears to be on the calendar for <b>November 4th</b>, with an alternative window between Nov 7 and 13, as indicated by this Navigational Warning:<br /><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: courier;">300930Z OCT 23<br />NAVAREA XII 760/23(18,19).<br />EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.<br />CALIFORNIA.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 041200Z TO 042030Z NOV,<br /> ALTERNATE 1300Z TO 2130Z DAILY 07 AND 13 NOV<br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY:<br /> A. 31-55.63N 127-43.18W, 33-12.37N 122-41.36W,<br /> 33-06.52N 119-53.89W, 32-55.31N 119-51.90W,<br /> 32-03.13N 122-28.33W, 31-40.94N 127-39.48W.<br /> B. 28-34.12N 135-59.93W, 30-09.63N 136-34.60W,<br /> 30-52.95N 133-51.97W, 29-16.77N 133-19.65W.<br /> C. 26-17.92N 141-50.77W, 27-26.72N 142-21.67W,<br /> 28-20.65N 139-47.33W, 27-11.27N 139-17.77W.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 132230Z NOV 23.//</span><br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKzMcpSBW-gA70C_RRkp68c97vj7WCz1DXPUg8nJswkhPZPf9nu6rIfvtdavgbnATdMPBDDL7xW-N2EdJkoIsu5bhzE6W40caFS1AHx8BW3XJzP0DnPHZmq_OZNyXXJkS6pvKov8z7v-8hFBjzrm1DT7oM-8gfLHqR-fiyYkYUos1ystXNrcmW/s1637/ARRW_4nov2023.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1100" data-original-width="1637" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKzMcpSBW-gA70C_RRkp68c97vj7WCz1DXPUg8nJswkhPZPf9nu6rIfvtdavgbnATdMPBDDL7xW-N2EdJkoIsu5bhzE6W40caFS1AHx8BW3XJzP0DnPHZmq_OZNyXXJkS6pvKov8z7v-8hFBjzrm1DT7oM-8gfLHqR-fiyYkYUos1ystXNrcmW/w640-h430/ARRW_4nov2023.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> The areas are similar to earlier known or suspected ARRW tests:<br /><br /><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt_VST96lFEDZRY0HMpPXmf2r5Qsvu4AC17S4Hs0Xkaz13aAU328zDHC3iZNCV9x9l1x2VSzrTnvSx5LyXB7eGzw0D5Gtz2RkuFwtg4Nn3K0FtQxMJwDPP3M4CFMgA0ALQ2EA8M7YCGV6O2lEAHW194csoI7PN4G6hK3roFLzMU0zBn3MDeqCu/s1631/ARRW_comp.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1100" data-original-width="1631" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt_VST96lFEDZRY0HMpPXmf2r5Qsvu4AC17S4Hs0Xkaz13aAU328zDHC3iZNCV9x9l1x2VSzrTnvSx5LyXB7eGzw0D5Gtz2RkuFwtg4Nn3K0FtQxMJwDPP3M4CFMgA0ALQ2EA8M7YCGV6O2lEAHW194csoI7PN4G6hK3roFLzMU0zBn3MDeqCu/w640-h432/ARRW_comp.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>This missile must be one of the last of the (scrapped) AGM-183 program left.</p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Failed Minuteman-III ICBM test<br /></h3><p>Meanwhile, November 1 saw what should have been a rather routine <b>Minuteman-III ICBM test</b> from Vandenberg to Illegini Island, Kwajalein, going awry.</p><p><a href="https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3575636/minuteman-iii-test-provides-vital-data-before-termination/" target="_blank">According to the Air Force Global Strike Command</a>, an anomaly occurred and the missile was terminated in flight. <a href="https://x.com/Murf411_/status/1719615415792611504?s=20" target="_blank">A nice photograph of the launch is here</a>.</p><p>Below is the map with the trajectory the missile should have flown, and the relevant Navigational Warnings:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHLMKEvpt7Y05704_Dzf3eeHr4olfjxWJKRIUhHVKYdSQb5noGoahwIHZvWk7JhYumwS5DuUZiqQA_r82PD21WCNLd89YVtXRetFcYFt0yj7mg9Q_U-Gz7kxFz9E-v4T-29Vfeawq4IY5Mlas3XhZtD6hJUm9Ob58cYuFoQ0qNshsWWH4l6VnM/s1681/Minuteman_1nov2023_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1165" data-original-width="1681" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHLMKEvpt7Y05704_Dzf3eeHr4olfjxWJKRIUhHVKYdSQb5noGoahwIHZvWk7JhYumwS5DuUZiqQA_r82PD21WCNLd89YVtXRetFcYFt0yj7mg9Q_U-Gz7kxFz9E-v4T-29Vfeawq4IY5Mlas3XhZtD6hJUm9Ob58cYuFoQ0qNshsWWH4l6VnM/w640-h444/Minuteman_1nov2023_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click map to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: courier;">260936Z OCT 23<br />NAVAREA XII 749/23(18,19,81).<br />EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.<br />CALIFORNIA.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 01 AND 02 NOV:<br /> A. 0631Z TO 1335Z IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 34-40.00N 121-25.00W, 34-40.00N 120-54.00W,<br /> 34-46.00N 120-37.00W, 34-57.00N 120-37.00W,<br /> 34-58.00N 120-58.00W, 34-58.00N 121-24.00W.<br /> B. 0631Z TO 1340Z IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 34-19.00N 124-36.00W, 34-40.00N 124-39.00W,<br /> 34-56.00N 121-59.00W, 34-36.00N 121-56.00W.<br /> C. 0631Z TO 1347Z IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 32-30.00N 137-13.00W, 32-48.00N 137-18.00W,<br /> 33-04.00N 136-01.00W, 32-45.00N 135-56.00W.<br /> D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY<br /> 14-36.00N 175-34.00E, 14-54.00N 175-13.00E,<br /> 14-35.00N 174-55.00E, 14-23.00N 174-49.00E, <br /> 14-17.00N 174-54.00E, 14-17.00N 175-15.00E.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021531Z NOV 23.//<br /><br /><br />270329Z OCT 23<br />HYDROPAC 3397/23(81).<br />NORTH PACIFIC.<br />MARSHALL ISLANDS.<br />DNC 12.<br />1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 010700Z TO 011411Z NOV,<br /> ALTERNATE 020700Z TO 021411Z NOV<br /> IN AREAS BOUND BY<br /> A. 09-53.00N 168-50.00E, 09-55.00N 168-47.00E,<br /> 09-32.00N 168-09.00E, 09-24.00N 167-35.00E,<br /> 09-09.00N 167-08.00E, 08-45.00N 167-23.00E,<br /> 09-01.00N 167-49.00E, 08-51.00N 168-22.00E,<br /> 08-54.00N 168-32.00E, 09-18.00N 169-10.00E,<br /> 09-20.00N 169-11.00E.<br /> B. 11-08.00N 172-02.00E, 12-18.00N 171-37.00E<br /> 13-20.00N 170-42.00E, 13-28.00N 170-33.00E<br /> 13-20.00N 170-07.00E, 13-14.00N 170-00.00E,<br /> 13-07.00N 169-54.00E, 12-01.00N 170-24.00E,<br /> 11-54.00N 170-31.00E, 10-59.00N 171-14.00E,<br /> 10-52.00N 171-22.00E, 10-57.00N 171-47.00E,<br /> 10-59.00N 171-54.00E.<br />2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021511Z NOV 23.//</span><br /></p>SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15164221.post-9936826115814529912023-10-25T14:26:00.012+02:002023-11-05T15:35:27.338+01:00A Goodbye to Delfi-C3<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCSIkKh-MCkXERePKm2YgGwc8oWmN-8MTvsvWBqulGP6TRD9p5mLuWnUABTif33oeIbU7SBVIWF7eQBtCvxtpIWgrBStFcopTXEBiSugyvTrNtuEPGe79gD_ZLMThqxChZfYv3BoVhNHRwwk8kPaY2PWmFmBlXs4Er9_EuP3occthAOSjAJ_95/s704/DelfiC3_24okt2023_175800UTC_stackfr45_60_WATEC902H2S_Samyang2p0_135mm_anot.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="704" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCSIkKh-MCkXERePKm2YgGwc8oWmN-8MTvsvWBqulGP6TRD9p5mLuWnUABTif33oeIbU7SBVIWF7eQBtCvxtpIWgrBStFcopTXEBiSugyvTrNtuEPGe79gD_ZLMThqxChZfYv3BoVhNHRwwk8kPaY2PWmFmBlXs4Er9_EuP3occthAOSjAJ_95/w640-h514/DelfiC3_24okt2023_175800UTC_stackfr45_60_WATEC902H2S_Samyang2p0_135mm_anot.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Delfi-C3 tracklet on a stack of 16 video frames, 24 Oct 2023</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"> (<i><b>note</b>: new reentry forecasts are now published in <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/delfi-c3-reentry-forecast-updates.html" target="_blank">a separate dedicated blogpost</a></i>)<br /></p><p>Earlier this year, my TU Delft colleague Stefano Speretta asked me if I could try to I imaged a pass of the <b>TU Delft-built 3U cubesat Delfi-C<sup>3</sup></b> (2008-021G). </p><p>It next took a long time due to initially unfavourable observing geometries and - when the observing geometries got better - the Dutch weather, but I finally <b>managed to successfuly image it</b> in late evening twilight of 24 October 2023. </p><p>Above is a stack of 16 video frames showing the tracklet created by the cubesat; below is the actual video footage, shot with a WATEC 902H2 Supreme camera and Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens at 25 fps (the object is very faint in the footage, due to it being very small in size):</p><p> </p><iframe allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="512" src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/877852705?h=20acc9646c&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" width="640"></iframe><p><br /></p><p><b>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup></b> (2008-021G) is a 3U cubesat and was <b>the first cubesat built in the Netherlands</b>. It was launched on 28 April 2008 from Satish Dawan in India on a PSLV rocket, as part of a rideshare mission.</p><p>It was built by students of <b>Delft Technical University</b> (my current employer) as the first in what was to become a line of Dutch-designed-and-built cube- and pocketsats. It carried at that time experimental technology (autonomous star sensors and thin-film solar panels) and an amateur radio responder. More information on the cubesat, its mission and the technology onboard can be found <a href="https://www.tudelft.nl/lr/delfi-space/delfi-c3" target="_blank">at the TU Delft website</a>.<br /></p><p>Although no longer operational, there is occasionally still radio telemetry received from the cubesat by our TU Delft Rooftab Radio lab. <br /></p><p> </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8-Syve8VXhdkD1XEm47F6TBgF1afS1V6MhwA5i5SHjmDf2eOM5_YCYULOHkSW7k179aACrxPrYowGu3g4OLKcQzR3RBuwi1IgREU2BjAk6PORyGTrZ2Xcm_02MBQASipo1nKtjzyGdI8fF89pobY3751QDxmBx3agti0VVyYfyhXXo2gS5G5w/s704/Delfi-C3-Stowed.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="528" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8-Syve8VXhdkD1XEm47F6TBgF1afS1V6MhwA5i5SHjmDf2eOM5_YCYULOHkSW7k179aACrxPrYowGu3g4OLKcQzR3RBuwi1IgREU2BjAk6PORyGTrZ2Xcm_02MBQASipo1nKtjzyGdI8fF89pobY3751QDxmBx3agti0VVyYfyhXXo2gS5G5w/w480-h640/Delfi-C3-Stowed.JPG" width="480" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> in stowed condition (image: TU Delft)<br /></i></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibJd8YaapV5rnsCaLjZ2U9VEAWquchCb3ke08dG6Y06sMaljsCpgXQob73AAyJAWqK9tx7ChNmauRY7Wjhzjoz7q82SytgXXu0aqfysxLPhyphenhyphenvJ9a9pI9n680vTnXhbrcQwXMLtMz-MLmfteZhJUFnMi5ltk-tt3fgsKa2l33pWWJpiNL0eNaZO/s542/DelfiC3_AutoE.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="525" data-original-width="542" height="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibJd8YaapV5rnsCaLjZ2U9VEAWquchCb3ke08dG6Y06sMaljsCpgXQob73AAyJAWqK9tx7ChNmauRY7Wjhzjoz7q82SytgXXu0aqfysxLPhyphenhyphenvJ9a9pI9n680vTnXhbrcQwXMLtMz-MLmfteZhJUFnMi5ltk-tt3fgsKa2l33pWWJpiNL0eNaZO/w640-h620/DelfiC3_AutoE.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup>in deployed condition (image: TU Delft)</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>Fifteen years after launch, it is<b> time to say Goodbye</b> this very successful cubesat. It has <b>less than half a month to live.</b></p><p><b> </b><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>[post NO LONGER UPDATED below.</b> Instead refer to<b> <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/delfi-c3-reentry-forecast-updates.html" target="_blank">this new dedicated post here</a> </b>for new <b>reentry forecast updates]</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p>Initially launched into a 615 x 635 km, 98.0 inclined orbit, the orbit has now decayed to 321 x 324 km (status as of 3 Nov 2023), <b>and the cubesat is coming down increasingly fast</b>, as can be seen in the diagrams below (currently, the orbit is dropping by 4 km/day (status 3 Nov 2023)):</p><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTCe4ZhEaa2y9HGHWriHQeiLw9EbJ2Uhj1lQFd5otEiT2nsCu3iJv3oLrHTYORK0hcbszYubpJGcxA_KEhleZMWCJyHx-bTQPenBBF52uBt4pStkSxw41mERJOASInWNYYIvfDxRizAIC66gpOb-BFrz7RQD7KF6qa9Wc-DJ9sdG5hpJOZg9BC/s1120/Delfi_C3_orbev.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1120" data-original-width="893" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTCe4ZhEaa2y9HGHWriHQeiLw9EbJ2Uhj1lQFd5otEiT2nsCu3iJv3oLrHTYORK0hcbszYubpJGcxA_KEhleZMWCJyHx-bTQPenBBF52uBt4pStkSxw41mERJOASInWNYYIvfDxRizAIC66gpOb-BFrz7RQD7KF6qa9Wc-DJ9sdG5hpJOZg9BC/w510-h640/Delfi_C3_orbev.png" width="510" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagrams to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-JD__oyEpCfWlyov_Jjzi6hcbGNPkSTQk4IVpP4b0hIgOY8YHVP6-j_TEzi3mSqG7wAvWvOnUl90n9LqlP1OxL1h4VlFkJVvEj5EVhBoZfp7TWPblDm3lwPEK_jBrXBsb7_Hyw1-ECpDKe_1D3O9IDQ9Vlsh9bxcmXbj_sFi9QhqVy0TpDfJE/s893/Delfi_C3_orbevrate.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="893" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-JD__oyEpCfWlyov_Jjzi6hcbGNPkSTQk4IVpP4b0hIgOY8YHVP6-j_TEzi3mSqG7wAvWvOnUl90n9LqlP1OxL1h4VlFkJVvEj5EVhBoZfp7TWPblDm3lwPEK_jBrXBsb7_Hyw1-ECpDKe_1D3O9IDQ9Vlsh9bxcmXbj_sFi9QhqVy0TpDfJE/w640-h402/Delfi_C3_orbevrate.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <p></p><p>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> will probably <b>reenter into the atmosphere and burn up</b> somewhere<b> mid-November 2023</b> (depending on how solar activity develops over November). </p><p>Here is the evolution of my GMAT reentry forecast so far (ignore the error bars and quoted reentry date uncertainty for now, as this far before reentry they still have little meaning, due to the uncertainty in future solar activity):</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgljCvnfH649_jiMrrTcq8nqKnMOY8plPrtXMKDH_MYCFXDRJgBPSB81jpAjSTxocPlLkdthmX3gr9IdhArvS5Vm4vlTLxp9-IIHYdEvw-HvJtnDsFvza3U3pNWvA1B1k3B7MYnlkmSthHR5EMhYWlJ3YuwuRkC5xNPcpbCP9BSO2mhpg0-E8SE/s1023/Delfi_C3_Reentrypred_60prdrag.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="1023" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgljCvnfH649_jiMrrTcq8nqKnMOY8plPrtXMKDH_MYCFXDRJgBPSB81jpAjSTxocPlLkdthmX3gr9IdhArvS5Vm4vlTLxp9-IIHYdEvw-HvJtnDsFvza3U3pNWvA1B1k3B7MYnlkmSthHR5EMhYWlJ3YuwuRkC5xNPcpbCP9BSO2mhpg0-E8SE/w640-h398/Delfi_C3_Reentrypred_60prdrag.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>click diagram to enlarge</i><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The initial shift of the forecast over time towards a progressively later date is slowing down. My <b>best guess</b> at this moment (3 Nov2023) is <b>reentry mid-November</b>, around 12-14 November 2023, plus-minus a few days.</p><p><strike><b>I will update this figure over the coming days and weeks, as the reentry forecast develops</b>. <br /></strike></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">New reentry forecasts are now published in a <a href="https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2023/11/delfi-c3-reentry-forecast-updates.html" target="_blank">separate dedicated blogpost</a>.</span></b><br /></p><p>I do not expect a TIP to be issued for this object. Recent experience shows that TLE updates will probably cease some 2-3 days before the actual reentry, after which CSpOC issues an 'administrative decay'.</p><p>Delfi-C<sup>3</sup> is very small and the reentry will be completely harmless, with the cubesat burning up completely.<br /></p><br />SatTrackCam Leidenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08711764306071043709noreply@blogger.com0