Sunday, January 15, 2012

Summary of current Phobos-Grunt reentry predictions (15 jan 11:00 UT)

Summary of current Fobos-Grunt reentry predictions, round-up of predictions compiled at 15 Jan 11:00 UTC:

USSTRATCOM (14 Jan 20:30): interval 14:52 - 19:40 UTC
Harro Zimmer (15 Jan 07:10): 17:49 +/- 45 m UTC
Ted Molczan (15 Jan 04:59): 20:39 +/- 3 hrs UTC
Aerospace Corp. (15 Jan 06:25): 19:21 +/- 3 hrs UTC 
Roscosmos (14 Jan):  18:36 UTC (uncertainty window not stated)

Listed are: source; time prediction was issued (UTC); predicted time and uncertainty interval, or predicted interval.

My own current prediction, using Alan Pickup's SatEvo, current F10.7cm flux and 09:21 UT epoch orbital elements:  20:07 +/- 2 hrs.

PLEASE take note of the still large uncertainty intervals. As yet, it is still impossible to realistically say where it will come down.

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