ROSAT reentry update (2)
The new TIP gives this prediction:
Space-Track (SSC): 23 Oct, 02:34 UTC +/- 7 hrs
Based on the new TLE, independant analyst Harro Zimmer now provides the following prediction:
Harro Zimmer: 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC +/- 4 hrs
Other independant analysts have not updated yet (see my previous post for these values). I did a run of SatEvo with the newly released TLE and the current F10.7 cm solar flux, and get, for what it's worth, a projected time of 10:20 UTC (23 Oct) +/- 5 hrs. That seems a bit late compared to the SSC and Zimmer estimates (although the uncertainty windows of course overlap).