UARS update, September 22 pm
The projected decay time for UARS keeps shifting back and forth with each orbital update. Over the course of today, it has oscilated between 19:00 UT on the 23rd to 01:00 UT on the 24th.
The last few orbits tend to favour the later part of this time window, but it could as easily swing back to the earlier part of the window again over the course of tonight and tomorrow.
This just goes to show that the uncertainties are still large and still amount to many hours. Over the course of tomorrow, it will become gradually more clear. The current time window is however exciting, as we have passes visible from Europe including the Netherlands during that time span, notably around 21h UT.